CHAPTER I

DESIGN BACKGROUND
This chapter presents the rationale for the design and construction of the

power plant. This includes the current energy situation in the country, sources

of energy, current load demands, target location and customers, load

projections for the next 10 years and the capacity of the power plant.

Rationale of the Design

As power demand soars in one of the world’s fastest-growing

economies, Philippines, the energy situation sometimes reach critical levels.

Power shortages and black-outs are being experienced, making the end-users

and industries to suffer from desolate power supply in the country. The

government is constantly developing an extensive solution for the energy crisis

that would efficiently address the needs of the country.

The Philippines continues to toe the line of expansion and generation

to meet energy needs. Meanwhile, studies reveal that such traditional

responses do not meet the necessary requirements and that it makes far

greater sense to place priority on investment in more efficient end-use

technology than in supply technology.

Today, around half of the energy produced in the Philippines is

generated by coal-fired or diesel-fired power plants. Around one-third is created

by natural gas, and the remaining ten percent is from renewable energy such

as geothermal, solar, wind and hydro power. Yet, to be able to meet the needs

of growing nation, coal’s role in the energy mix can be seen. With its low cost

and established supply chain within the country, coal is greatly expanding.

Current Energy Situation in the Philippines

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 The Philippines is in the Pacific Ring of Fire and thus has a high

geothermal potential. In terms of energy use, conventional fossil fuels like oil

and gas, are the main source for its primary energy demands. The country’s

total installed capacity remained dominated by coal at 35% or 7,568 MW,

followed by renewable energy like wind, solar and biofuel at 32% or 7,038 MW,

oil-based at 17% or 3,584 MW, and natural gas at 16% or 3,431 MW.

The Philippines has been contingent on oil imports: 87% of the country’s

supply of crude oil was imported from the Middle East (36.1% from Saudi Arabia,

33.6% from Kuwait, and 13.3% from the United Arab Emirates).44 Foreign

dependence on oil has left the Philippines vulnerable to price volatility, an issue

that was especially pronounced during the oil crisis of the 1970s.45 The

Philippine National Oil Corporation (PNOC) was established in response to the

oil crisis and its efforts have included the exploration of domestic oil production

opportunities along with broader measures to expand the domestic energy

industry.

Although the country’s oil industry has remained small, there have been

a few minor production opportunities in the area. There are currently 26

petroleum service contracts in the Philippines. In recent years, the Galoc field

on the northeast coast of Palawan has been the most productive whereas

output from Nido, Mantinloc, and North Mantinloc has been minimal. The Galoc

oil field had produced 1.87 million barrels with 1.54 million barrels of proved

reserves as of December 2016.

To date, the Malampaya field remains the only meaningful source of

indigenous gas within the Philippines, supporting 2,880 MW of gas-fired

generation capacity in Luzon. In addition to the older Sta. Rita, San Lorenzo,

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and Ilijan plants which have take-or-pay contracts and thus operate as baseload,

newer gas plants also use gas from Malampaya including the San Gabriel mid-

merit and Avion peaking plant. Production levels from the Malampaya gas field

are expected to decline from 2024 onward, eliminating a significant source of

domestic gas and impacting significant generating capacity. San Gabriel and

Avion were built with the intent to switch to degasified imported liquefied natural

gas (LNG) upon depletion of Malampaya.

Continued exploration under existing petroleum service contracts has

not yielded commercial quantities of natural gas. In the absence of the

discovery and commercialization of further indigenous gas, the decline of

Malampaya will see the Philippines necessarily source LNG to fuel existing and

new gas-fired generation. One prerequisite to importing LNG to the Philippines

will be the development of gas infrastructure such as an LNG terminal, floating

storage and regasification units, and pipelines, which the Philippines currently

does not have and would require significant capital investment. Given its current

reliance on Malampaya gas as well as its overall grid size, Luzon is the most

likely region for development of such a project. Batangas, Limay, Atimonan,

and Sual have received attention over the years as potential sites to develop

an LNG import terminal in Luzon. However, the only terminal under construction

to date is that of Energy World Corporation Limited (near Pagbilao), though it

remains challenged by funding and transmission requirements.

In terms of power generation, coal remained the major source of

electricity for Luzon, Visayas, and Mindanao with a combined share at 49% or

21,707 MWh. The energy sector in the Philippines is highly reliant on coal. Total

consumption of coal reached 20.3 million metric tons (Mt), reflecting a 10-year

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compound annual growth rate of 10.8%. The first coal-fired plant in Pagbilao

was commissioned in 1996 and output from coalfired generation has since

grown to account for 48% of total power generation in the country and power

generation was responsible for 79.8% of coal consumption in the previous year.

Owing to its affordability, coal power predominates baseload generation

capacity.

Coal consumption in the Philippines is expected to increase fivefold by

2040. Acknowledging the importance of the fuel to the power sector and the

reliance on imports from overseas, the government has made a concerted effort

in recent years to expand coal production through additional operating contract

offerings. In December 2011, the DOE offered 30 new operating contracts that

would expand mining exploration and operations in Mindanao and the Visayas.

The DOE’s 2012–2030 energy plan targets doubling of domestic coal

production by 2030. Since the publication of this plan, the DOE has granted

contracts to five companies to operate in seven new areas in Mindanao. The

DOE had issued 30 coal operating contracts for development and production

and 48 contracts for coal exploration with 83 small-scale coal mining operators

participating.

The Philippines has a long history of utilizing indigenous geothermal

resources in electricity generation and currently ranks as the third largest

producer of geothermal energy globally, behind the United States and

Indonesia. Since the development of the country’s first commercial geothermal

power plant at Makban on Luzon in 1979, geothermal resources have grown to

provide a large source of baseload electricity generation. Installed capacity of

geothermal power plants had reached 1,916 MW providing 12.2% of the

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country’s total electricity requirements. Most of the country’s geothermal

generating capacity is situated on the islands of Leyte and Negros and

accounted for 46% of the generation in the Visayas region.

Hydropower plays an important role in the country’s generation mix,

providing almost a fifth of the country’s total indigenous electricity supply. The

total installed capacity across the Philippines was 3,618 MW, with 2,537 MW in

Luzon, 1,061 MW in Mindanao, and a more modest 20 MW in the Visayas.

The majority of hydropower capacity in the Philippines is owned and

operated by independent power producers; however, among the remaining

assets for the Power Sector Assets and Liabilities Management Corporation to

privatize are two large hydropower complexes in Mindanao, Agus and Pulangi,

with a combined installed capacity of 982.1 MW. The NPC continues to operate

these generating assets which are subject to political challenges due to the

power facilities (or their ultimate water sources) being in the Bangsamoro area

of Mindanao, with some rights to the output being given locally as part of the

peace process.

The Philippines was the first country in Southeast Asia to enact biofuels

legislation, offering tax exemptions for biofuel production and use under the

Biofuels Act of 2006. The Biofuels Act set bioethanol blending targets for the

transport sector at 10% and 5% for biodiesel with sugarcane and coconut oil

being the preferred feedstock. This was followed in 2011 by a DOE-issued

mandate for a minimum 10% blend of bioethanol in all gasoline distributed and

sold in-country to be increased to a 20% blend by 2020. It is estimated that 27

bioethanol plants would be required to meet the targeted 20% blend.

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 Biomass and biofuels make a small but meaningful contribution to the

power sector. There were 16 existing biomass-fueled power plants in the

Philippines, of which 9 were in Luzon, 6 in the Visayas, and 1 in Mindanao. Four

more had been approved but were not yet operational. Of these plants, nine

runs on bagasse (residue from sugarcane processing), four on rice husks, and

three use a landfill gas recovery system. They collectively provide 233 MW of

installed capacity, or alternatively 157 MW of dependable capacity which is 0.8%

of the country’s dependable capacity.

Current Load Demands

The Philippine Power System remained generally stable from January

to June 2017 despite the natural and man-made calamities experienced during

the period such as earthquakes in Batangas in Luzon and Leyte in Visayas and

the Marawi siege in Mindanao; and events such as Malampaya Gas

maintenance shutdown in Luzon, continued occurrences of forced outages of

generation and transmission facilities which resulted to load dropping incidents

in the three major grids. The strong coordination among all energy stakeholders

to immediately respond to these challenges was key towards this end, coupled

with the additional power generation capacities of 237 MW. The relatively low

demand during critical supply periods also aid in maintaining the stability of the

power system.

Electricity sales and consumption in Luzon from January to June 2017

reached a total of 28,289,272 MWh. This is 2.13% higher than the same period

in 2016 at 27,700,584 MWh. This is driven by the consumption of the residential

sector at 34% or 9,227,244 MWh. Luzon’s share to the country’s total electricity

sales and consumption remained the largest at 75%. Luzon reached new all-

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time high system peak demand at 10,054 MW which occurred on 09 May 2017,

2:27 PM with corresponding 11,218 MW available capacity. This peak demand

is 3.26% higher than the previous year at 9,726 MW.

An Automatic Load Dropping (ALD) incident occurred on 7 June 2017

due to the outage of the 300 MW Calaca Coal Fired Power Plant (CFPP) Unit

2 and the 150 MW SLPGC CFPP Unit 2. The outage of the power plants was

due to the actuation of Batangas System Integrity Protection Scheme (SIPS)

caused by the auto-tripping of Calaca-Amadeo 230 kV transmission line 2. At

the end of 1st half 2017, a total of 168.8 MW increase in the installed capacity

was recorded with the entry of the power plants listed below. In addition, a total

of 4,142 MW committed capacity and 16,113 indicative capacity is recorded as

of 30 June 2017.

Electricity sales and consumption in Visayas from January to June 2017

reached a total of 4,747,921 MWh. This is 0.41% higher than the same period

in 2016 at 4,728,529 MWh. Like Luzon, electricity consumption in the Visayas

is also driven by the residential sector at 37% or 1,766,197 MWh. Visayas’

share to the country’s total electricity sales and consumption is at 12%. Highest

system peak demand in Visayas at 1,934 MW occurred on 02 June 2017, 2:10

PM with corresponding 2,558 MW available capacity. This peak demand is

2.11% higher than the previous year at 1,894 MW.

For the first half of 2017, the total gross generation of power plants in the

Visayas grid reached a total of 6,966 GWh. From the months of January until

June 2017, the power situation in the Visayas grid has been generally stable

due to the additional capacities that went on commercial operation. There are

some instances where the Visayas grid experienced tight supply conditions

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especially during the simultaneous outages of large coal-fired and geothermal

power plants. As of June 2017, a total of 68 MW of installed capacity was added

to the Visayas grid composed of solar and diesel-fired power generation

facilities. Committed and indicative capacities as of the first half of 2017

reached 408 MW and 3,504 MW, respectively.

Electricity sales and consumption in Mindanao from January to June

2017 reached a total of 4,921,497 MWh. This is 1.54 % higher than the same

period in 2016 at 4,846,988 MWh. This is driven by the consumption of the

residential and industrial sectors with at par shares at 35% and 34%,

respectively. Mindanao’s share to the country’s total electricity sales and

consumption is at 13%. Highest system peak demand in Mindanao at 1,696

MW occurred on 18 April 2017, 2:46 PM with corresponding 2,202 MW

available capacity. This peak demand is 2.60% higher than the previous year

at 1,653 MW.

Power generation in Mindanao reached 5,170 GWh for the first half of

2017. Almost half of the grid’s power generation came from coal-fired power

plants at 2,486 GWh. For renewable energy, hydro power plants’ share at 38%

or 1,947 GWh was the largest, followed by geothermal at 7% or 344 GWh, solar

power plants at 0.6% or 31 GWh, and biomass at 0.04% or 2 GWh. The

remaining 7% or 360 GWh came from oil-based power plants.

In total, the country’s peak demand in 2017 was recorded at 13,789 MW,

which is 517 MW or 3.9% higher than the 13,272 MW in 2016. On the other

hand, the total power supply, in terms of installed capacity, grew by 6.1% from

21,425 MW in 2016 to 22,730 MW in 2017. A total of 835 MW new capacities

were added to the country’s supply base in 2017 which include coal-fired (630

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MW), solar (127 MW), oil-based (77 MW), and hydropower (1MW). In terms of

share by grid, Luzon contributed 392 MW or 47%, Mindanao at 337 MW or 40%

and Visayas at 106 MW or 3%. The year also saw the end of the constrained

demand in Mindanao which grew by 6.5% or 107 MW from 1,653 MW in 2016

to 1,760 MW in 2017.

Description of Target Location

(a)

(b)

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 (c)
Figure 1. Proposed Plant Location
Source: Google Earth

This place is situated in Quezon, Region 4, Philippines. The municipal

center of Pitogo is situated at approximately 13° 47' North, 122° 5' East, in the island

of Luzon. Elevation at these coordinates is estimated at 14.7 meters or 48.3 feet above

mean sea level. The municipality has a land area of 73.39 square kilometers or

28.34 square miles which constitutes 0.82% of Quezon's total area. Its

population as determined by the 2015 Census was 23,019. This represented

1.24% of the total population of Quezon province, or 0.16% of the overall

population of the CALABARZON region. Based on these figures, the population

density is computed at 314 inhabitants per square kilometer or 812 inhabitants

per square mile.

Pitogo has a total of 39 barangays. According to the 2015 Census, the

age group with the highest population in Pitogo is 10 to 14, with 2,616

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individuals. Conversely, the age group with the lowest population is 80 and

over, with 213 individuals.

Brgy. Nag-Cruz, Pitogo, Quezon as desired site for steam turbine power

plant is suitable for the type of power plant wherein the quality, delivered cost,

and reliability of supply for all potential sources of water and natural gas as

primary fue is applicable on the location. The ambient conditions, site elevation,

site soil conditions, site preparation requirements and seismic zone for the

target location was good for a power plant specifically for a gas turbine power

plant. The proposed plant is incorporated with solar parabolic trough that will

add heat in the feed water heater to help in heating the steam that will pass in

the unit.

The fuel that will be used in the proposed steam power plant is the

Malampaya natural gas. Malampaya natural gas helps in providing the 30% of

Luzon power grid requirements.

Load Survey

Table 1
No. of Customers in Different Establishments Every Year

Year Residential Commercial Industrial Others Total

2008 105,242 3,340 1 3,213 111,797
2009 111,300 3,439 1 3,198 117,938
2010 117,629 3,541 1 3,200 124,372
2011 124,090 3,646 1 3,203 130,941
2012 130,904 3,754 1 3,206 137,866
2013 138,061 3,866 1 3,209 145,137
2014 145,611 3,981 1 3,212 152,805
2015 153,577 4,099 1 3,215 160,892
2016 161,980 4,220 1 3,219 169,420
2017 170,846 4,346 1 3,223 178,415

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 The table presented above shows the number of residential,

commercial, and industrial establishments that Quezon Electric Cooperative I

(QUEZELCO I) is supplying. The establishments were projected from 2008 to

2017. Based on the given data, the number of establishments increases thus

increasing the demand for power.

Table 2
Energy Sales per Customer Type (MWh)

Year Residential Commercial Others Total

2008 74,909 19,483 7,539 101,931
2009 82,978 20,525 7,870 111,374
2010 92,909 21,648 8,296 122,853
2011 103,986 22,857 8,745 135,587
2012 116,371 24,139 9,288 149,798
2013 130,221 25,505 9,866 165,593
2014 145,714 26,961 10,483 183,158
2015 163,045 28,499 11,140 202,684
2016 182,433 30,123 11,842 224,398
2017 204,121 31,840 12,591 248,552

The table presented above shows the energy sales per customer type

(residential, commercial, and others) that Quezon Electric Cooperative I

(QUEZELCO I) is supplying. The energy sales were projected from 2008 to

2017. Based on the given data, the number of energy sales increases per year.

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 Table 3
Peak Load Demand Supplied by QUEZELCO I
Year Demand (MW)
2008 23.8
2009 25
2010 26.4
2011 28.6
2012 30.7
2013 33.7
2014 37.1
2015 40.2
2016 43.7
2017 48.3
The table presented above shows the peak load demand that Quezon

Electric Cooperative I (QUEZELCO I) is supplying every year. The peak load

demand were projected from 2008 to 2017. Based on the given data, the load

demand increases per year.

Target Customers

These data are acquired from the Provincial Capitol of Bulacan. It shows

the load demands for the target customers - 10 municipalities (Balagtas,

Bocaue, Bulacan, Calumpit, Guiguinto, Hagonoy, Malolos City, Paombong,

Plaridel and Pulilan). The table below shows the load demands with its

corresponding year. The average load demand for the year 2000,2010,2015

and 2017 for the 10 municipalities are also stated.

Load Projection for the Next 10 Years

Load projection determines the capacity of the proposed power plant that

will supply electricity for the succeeding years. It is important to establish the

needed power in years to come in a certain region or place. It is forecasting

how the population will grow and how it will affect the load demand for that

certain addition. This is attained using trend analysis method where electrical

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consumption is calculated as an estimated amount in base year plus an addition

amount for each year after the base year.

Table 4
Load Projection for Location Maps
Peak
Energy Sales No. of
Year Demand
(MWh) Consumers
(MW)
2018 48.7133 253,540.1333 183,472
2019 51.4340 272,409.2533 191,368
2020 54.1546 291,236.8791 199,281
2021 56.8752 309,920.9383 207,180
2022 59.5958 328,248.7626 214,996
2023 62.3164 346,075.054 222,703
2024 65.0370 363,347.1445 230,290
2025 67.7576 380,179.9343 237,785
2026 70.4782 396,940.1636 245,269
2027 73.1988 414,361.8224 252,895
2028 75.9194 433,690.4005 260,913
2029 78.64 451,026.5906 268,521

The table above represents the data projected average load demand target

customers from year 2018 to 2029. The gathered data show an increase on the

load demand of about 3% to 10% each year.

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[Link]

[Link]

[Link]

highlights-january-december-2017

[Link]

households

[Link]

type/

[Link]

[Link]

[Link]

mand_highlights_jan_jun_2017.pdf

[Link]

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