TransUnion Vehicle Pricing Index

REPORT - Q1 2019
Executive Summary
The TransUnion SA Vehicle Pricing Index (VPI) for new New and used passenger finance deals has decreased
and used vehicle pricing moved to 2.3% and 1.8% in Q1 YoY by 10% and 8% respectively. The used-to-new ratio
2019 from 2.3% and 2.9% in Q1 2018 respectively. has increased from 2.09 in Q1 2018 to 2.13 in Q1 2019 as
The VPI in the new passenger market has slowed down predicted. In the used vehicle market, the make-up of
below inflation for the seventh consecutive quarter. used vehicle sales has shown that 35% were under two
The used passenger vehicle pricing index has declined years old and 10% were demo models which indicates
in Q1 2019 compared to Q1 2018. The index measures consumers are opting for vehicles that are under two
the relationship between the increase in vehicle years old. According to Naamsa, there has been a YoY
pricing for new and used vehicles from a basket of decline of 5.6% in new passenger vehicles for
passenger vehicles which incorporates 15 top volume March 2019.
manufacturers. Vehicle sales data collated from across
the industry was used to create the index. The percentage of cars (new and used) being financed
below R200k has moved to 37% which is consistent to
Although the macro-economic outlook has been the last 3 quarters. This has shown an increase in used
positive (with the latest figures showing GDP growth), car loans has been consistent and currently at around
business confidence has been deteriorating. It is the R297k. Although consumers are still opting at value
weakest confidence since Q2 2017 which new vehicle proposition, the prices of baseline new vehicles are
trade has been contributing to. above this threshold and have moved into the 200 to
300k band.
Total financial agreement volumes in the passenger
market have decreased from Q1 2018 to Q1 2019 by 8%.

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Overall, the South African car market has had another challenging quarter with low business and consumer
confidence. New vehicle sales have deteriorated due to current depressed macro-economic environment which has
added pressure on household disposable income. The increases in fuel prices and the added hassle of load shedding
hampered business activity which decreased demand.

Q1 Q1 Q4
1. Q1 2019 VPI Results 2019 2018 2018
New Pricing Index (Figure 1.1 and 1.2)
New Vehicle price increases have slowed down in Q1 2019. New
The increases have been marginal from Q4 2018 and Q1 VPI 2.3% 2.3% 2.4%
2019 showing that manufacturers are reducing new vehicle
prices in real terms.
Used
Used Pricing Index (Figure 1.1 and 1.2)
VPI 1.8% 2.9% 1.6%
Used vehicle price increases have also slowed down in
Q1 2019 as compared Q1 2018. Used price increases have
dropped to 1.8% which is well below the average of 2.9%
over the previous 3 years. This is indicative of the shift CPI 4.1% 4.7% 5.2%
from used to new as the supply of quality used vehicles
are diminishing.

Figure 1.1

VPI and CPI

15.00%

10.00%

5.00%

0.00%

-5.00%
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Index - New (Rate) Index - Used (Rate) CPI - Base = Jan 2000 (Rate)

Figure 1.2

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2. Q1 2019 Used-to-New Ratio
Used-to-New Ratio (Figure 1.3 and 1.4)
The used-to-new ratio is based on finance deals 2.13 2.09 2.03
registered in the last quarter. The ratio indicates that Q1 2019 Q1 2018 Q4 2018
finance houses are financing 2.13 used vehicles for
every 1 new vehicle. This follows the trend of the VPI
where new car prices have slowed down over
the last year. Figure 1.3

Used-to-New Ratio
3,50
3,00
2,50
2,00
1,50
1,00
0,50
0
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Total

Figure 1.4

3. Q1 2019 Vehicle Asset Finance Results

<200,000
Vehicle Asset Finance (Figure 1.5 and 1.6)
37% 37%
We have seen no shift in the vehicle finance bands Q1
over the last four quarters and we expect this trend to
continue into 2019.
2019 200,000-300,000

26% >300,000

Figure 1.5

100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Figure 1.6

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4. Q1 2019 Top Manufacturers by Sales Volume – Passenger
Manufacturers by Financed Sales Volumes (Figure 1.7 and 1.8)
Toyota and VW have been doing well in both areas sharing the top 2 spots in both new and used sales. Together they
have captured more than 45% of the new and used passenger financed volumes.

Used Passenger Vehicle Sales New Passenger Vehicle Sales

24% 25%
27% 26%

5%

6% 20% 20%
13%
10%
11% 13%

VOLKSWAGEN TOYOTA FORD HYUNDAI Nissan OTHER VOLKSWAGEN TOYOTA FORD HYUNDAI NISSAN OTHER

Figure 1.7 Figure 1.8

5. Q1 2019 Top Manufacturers by Sales Volume - Light Commercial

Manufacturers by Financed Sales Volumes (Figure 1.9 and 1.10)
Toyota has been doing well in both areas and definitely seems to be the market leader in light commercial vehicles.
That said, Ford and Nissan have had another good quarter.

Used Light Commercial Vehicle Sales New Light Commercial Vehicle Sales

15% 18%
26%
5% 33%
5%

7%
11%

18%
22% 21%
19%

TOYOTA NISSAN FORD ISUZU VOLKSWAGEN OTHER TOYOTA NISSAN FORD ISUZU VOLKSWAGEN OTHER

Figure 1.9 Figure 1.10

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 Contact us
TransUnion SA Vehicle Pricing Index queries can be directed to:
Michelle van Renen | [email protected] or +27 11 214 6000

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Sources: Figure 1.1 and 1.2 – Industry Sales Data, Figure 1.3 to 1.10 – New Financed Vehicle Sales Data

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