FCF Forecasting
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
Period Q1 Yr.1 Q2 Yr.1 Q3 Yr.1 Q4 Yr.1 Q1 Yr.2 Q2 Yr.2 Q3 Yr.2 Q4 Yr.2 Q1 Yr.3 Q2 Yr.3 Q3 Yr.3 Q4 Yr.3 Q1 Yr.4 Q2 Yr.4 Q3 Yr.4 Q4 Yr.4 Q1 Yr.5 Q2 Yr.5 Q3 Yr.5 Q4 Yr.5
Free CF $16 $115 $346 $436 $688 $890 $1,238 $1,487 $2,060 $2,468 $2,384
Growth % 634% 201.9% 26.0% 58.0% 29.2% 39.2% 20.1% 38.6% 19.8% -3.4%
$2,503 $2,628 $2,759 $2,897 $3,042 $3,194 $3,354 $3,522 $3,698
$16 $115 $346 $436 $688 $890 $1,238 $1,487 $2,060
Geometric
$2,468 $2,384 5.0%
$2,503 5.0%
$2,628 5.0%
$2,759 5.0%
$2,897 5.0%
$3,042 5.0%
$3,194 5.0%
$3,354 5.0%
$3,522 5.0%
$3,698
$3,028 $3,464 $3,925 $4,413 $4,928 $5,468 $6,035 $6,628 $7,248
Methodologies: Polynomial 27.1% 14.4% 13.3% 12.4% 11.7% 11.0% 10.4% 9.8% 9.3%
$16 $115 $346 $436 $688 $890 $1,238 $1,487 $2,060 $2,468 $2,384 $3,028 $3,464 $3,925 $4,413 $4,928 $5,468 $6,035 $6,628 $7,248
$2,052 $2,137 $2,216 $2,289 $2,357 $2,422 $2,483 $2,540 $2,594
$16 $115 $346 $436 $688 $890 $1,238 $1,487 $2,060
Logarithmic
$2,468 $2,384 -13.9%
$2,052 4.1%
$2,137 3.7%
$2,216 3.3%
$2,289 3.0%
$2,357 2.7%
$2,422 2.5%
$2,483 2.3%
$2,540 2.1%
$2,594
$3,691 $4,343 $5,049 $5,808 $6,622 $7,489 $8,411 $9,388 $10,418
$16 $115 $346 $436 $688 $890 $1,238 $1,487 $2,060
Exponential
$2,468 $2,384 54.9%
$3,691 17.7%
$4,343 16.2%
$5,049 15.0%
$5,808 14.0%
$6,622 13.1%
$7,489 12.3%
$8,411 11.6%
$9,388 11.0%
$10,418
Geometric Polynomial
$4,000 $8,000
$3,500 f(x) = - 4.8863702023x^2 + 305.9312622196x - 524.8789661771 $7,000 f(x) = 13.1669582502x^2 + 106.0209210472x - 139.4250708947
$3,000 $6,000
$2,500 $5,000
$2,000 $4,000
$1,500 $3,000
$1,000 $2,000
$500 y = Ax $1,000 y = Ax2 + Bx
$0 $0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
Logarithmic Exponential
$3,000 $12,000
$2,500 f(x) = 1062.1886537257 ln(x) - 587.5627762047 $10,000 f(x) = 23.7295561294 x^2.0310968568
$2,000 $8,000
$1,500 $6,000
$1,000 $4,000
$500 y = A ln(x) $2,000 y = AxB
$0 $0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
$1,000 $4,000
$500 y = A ln(x) $2,000 y = AxB
$0 $0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
Historical Period:
Q1 Yr.1 Q2 Yr.1 Q3 Yr.1 Q4 Yr.1 Q1 Yr.2 Q2 Yr.2 Q3 Yr.2 Q4 Yr.2 Q1 Yr.3 Q2 Yr.3 Q3 Yr.3
Net Earnings (P&L) $11,621 $19,227 $235,490 $143,429 $216,398 $267,099 $500,500 $250,506 $612,868 $795,779 $79,202
Equity (B/S) $15,621 $114,848 $350,338 $442,577 $652,116 $901,389 $1,246,408 $1,496,914 $2,109,783 $2,542,499 $2,621,701
Historical ROE 74.4% 16.7% 67.2% 32.4% 33.2% 29.6% 40.2% 16.7% 29.0% 31.3% 3.0%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Terminal Grow
Forecast Period:
Q4 Yr.3 Q1 Yr.4 Q2 Yr.4 Q3 Yr.4 Q4 Yr.4 Q1 Yr.5 Q2 Yr.5 Q3 Yr.5 Q4 Yr.5 0.5% 1.0%
Future Values
Geometric $2,503 $2,628 $2,759 $2,897 $3,042 $3,194 $3,354 $3,522 $3,698 $12,597 $12,878
Polynomial $3,028 $3,464 $3,925 $4,413 $4,928 $5,468 $6,035 $6,628 $7,248 $24,692 $25,243
Logarithmic $2,052 $2,137 $2,216 $2,289 $2,357 $2,422 $2,483 $2,540 $2,594 $8,839 $9,036
Exponential $3,691 $4,343 $5,049 $5,808 $6,622 $7,489 $8,411 $9,388 $10,418 $35,493 $36,285
Present Values
Geometric $1,925 $1,555 $1,256 $1,014 $819 $662 $535 $432 $349 $914 $934
Polynomial $2,330 $2,050 $1,787 $1,545 $1,327 $1,133 $962 $813 $683 $1,791 $1,831
Logarithmic $1,578 $1,264 $1,009 $801 $635 $502 $396 $311 $245 $641 $655
Exponential $2,840 $2,570 $2,298 $2,034 $1,783 $1,552 $1,340 $1,151 $982 $2,575 $2,632
Composite Historical R.O.E.
( ~ WACC assuming no debt)
Average Median Est. WACC
34.0% 31.3% 30.0%
Terminal Growth:
2.0% 5.0% 8.0%
$13,470 $15,530 $18,152
$26,403 $30,442 $35,581
$9,451 $10,897 $12,736
$37,952 $43,757 $51,144
$977 $1,127 $1,317
$1,915 $2,208 $2,581
$686 $790 $924
$2,753 $3,174 $3,710
