Safal Niveshak Stock Analysis Excel (Ver. 4.

[Link]

HOW TO USE THIS SPREADSHEET

Step 1 - This spreadsheet works only on [Link]. The first step is to create a free account here - [Link]
Step 2 - After creating your account, while you are logged in to [Link] website, visit this page - [Link]
Step 3 - Visit the home page of [Link] and choose a company of your choice. Once you do that, you will see details of you
financial statement table called "Quarterly Results" and click on "View Consolidated". Now, all data you see for this company wi

Step 4 - Scroll back to the top of the page, and you will see a button "Export to Excel" on the right side. Click the button and the
the exact format as "Safal Niveshak's Stock Analysis Excel Ver. 4.0". Now onwards, any excel you export for any company on S
Step 5 - Email me your love and testimonial for helping you with this excel. :-)

IMPORTANT INSTRUCTIONS
1. Ensure that the company whose data you are downloading has numbers at least starting from FY08 (March 2008). This is be
from, say, FY10, you will see incorrect data for FY08 and FY09 (which will be of Hero Motocorp on whose financials I have crea

2. All financial data of your chosen company will be automatically updated in the sheet you download, except "Cash and Bank"
figures, which you must update manually from the company's annual reports. Don’t forget to make these changes as these num
3. You may update the sheet and add your own analysis, formulae etc. and then upload again to [Link] site using the Step
"Data Sheet" because this will cause errors in your future downloads.
4. DON’T touch any cell except the black ones, where you are required to update the numbers manually from Annual Reports (j
the growth assumptions etc.
4. I have added Comments and Instructions wherever necessary so as to explain the concepts. Read those carefully before wo
5. This sheet is not a replacement of the work required to read annual reports as part of the analysis process. So please do tha
some discrepancy in numbers (though rare), but you will know this only when you read annual reports.
6. I could not find a bug/errors in this spreadsheet, but if you notice some, please email me at - vishal@[Link] - and
7. I will keep on updating the sheet from time to time and will update the same on the website. I invite you to share your feedba
together.
8. This excel won't work for banking and financial services companies.

Note: All data is sourced from [Link]

 Safal Niveshak Stock Warning! Excel can be a wonder
a deadly weapon if you wish to
Analysis Excel (Ver. 4.0) careful of what you are getting
garbage out. And if you need the
a given stock, you mu
[Link]
Basic Company Details
Parameters Details
Company APL APOLLO TUBES LTD
Current Stock Price (Rs) 1,395 Remember! Focus on decisions
Face Value (Rs) 10.0 evidence
No. of Shares (Crore) 2.4
Market Capitalization (Rs Crore) 3,312

Key Financials - Trend

Parameters Details
Sales Growth (9-Year CAGR) 29.5% Please! It's your money. Please
cause you to lose it all! I've desi
Profit Before Tax Growth (9-Year CAGR) 46.7% but you alone are responsible f
Net Profit Growth (8-Year CAGR) 58.3% ever after! I am not a sadist w
Average Debt/Equity (5-Years, x) 1.0 analyzing companies on your
instead of a map, for you can c
Average Return on Equity (5-Years) 17.0%
A
Average P/E (5-Years, x) 18.7
Latest P/E (x) 25.3
 Excel can be a wonderful tool to analyze the past. But it can be
y weapon if you wish to use it to predict the future! So be very
of what you are getting into. Here, garbage in will always equal
out. And if you need the excel to tell you what you must do with
a given stock, you must not use this tool anyways.

er! Focus on decisions, not outcomes. Look for disconfirming

evidence. Calculate. Pray!

It's your money. Please don't blame me if results of this excel

u to lose it all! I've designed this excel to aid your own thinking,
alone are responsible for your actions. I want to live peacefully
fter! I am not a sadist who wants you to do the hard work by
ng companies on your own. But I'd rather give you a compass
of a map, for you can confuse map with territory and lose it all.
All the best!
 Buffett Checklist - Read, Remember, Follow!
Source - Buffettology by Mary Buffett & David Clark
Parameter

Consumer monopoly or commodity?

Understand how business works

Is the company conservatively financed?

Are earnings strong and do they show an

upward trend?

Does the company stick with what it

knows?

Has the company been buying back its

shares?

Have retained earnings been invested

well?

Is the company’s return on equity above

average?

Is the company free to adjust prices to

inflation?
Does the company need to constantly
reinvest in capital?

Conclusion

Never Forget
 Buffett Checklist - Read, Remember, Follow!
Source - Buffettology by Mary Buffett & David Clark
Explanation

Seek out companies that have no or less competition, either due to a patent or brand name or similar intangible that
makes the product unique. Such companies will typically have high gross and operating profit margins because of their
unique niche. However, don't just go on margins as high margins may simply highlight companies within industries with
traditionally high margins. Thus, look for companies with gross, operating and net profit margins above industry norms.
Also look for strong growth in earnings and high return on equity in the past.

Try to invest in industries where you possess some specialized knowledge (where you work) or can more effectively
judge a company, its industry, and its competitive environment (simple products you consume). While it is difficult to
construct a quantitative filter, you should be able to identify areas of interest. You should "only" consider analyzing
those companies that operate in areas that you can clearly grasp - your circle of competence. Of course you can
increase the size of the circle, but only over time by learning about new industries. More important than the size of the
circle is to know its boundaries.

Seeks out companies with conservative financing, which equates to a simple, safe balance sheet. Such companies
tend to have strong cash flows, with little need for long-term debt. Look for low debt to equity or low debt-burden ratios.
Also seek companies that have history of consistently generating positive free cash flows.

Rising earnings serve as a good catalyst for stock prices. So seek companies with strong, consistent, and expanding
earnings (profits). Seek companies with 5/10 year earnings per share growth greater than 25% (along with safe
balance sheets). To help indicate that earnings growth is still strong, look for companies where the last 3-years
earnings growth rate is higher than the last 10-years growth rate. More important than the rate of growth is the
consistency in such growth. So exclude companies with volatile earnings growth in the past, even if the "average"
growth has been high.

Like you should stock to your circle of competence, a company should invest its capital only in those businesses within
its circle of competence. This is a difficult factor to screen for on a quantitative level. Before investing in a company,
look at the company’s past pattern of acquisitions and new directions. They should fit within the primary range of
operations for the firm. Be cautious of companies that have been very aggressive in acquisitions in the past.

Buffett prefers that firms reinvest their earnings within the company, provided that profitable opportunities exist. When
companies have excess cash flow, Buffett favours shareholder-enhancing maneuvers such as share buybacks. While
we do not screen for this factor, a follow-up examination of a company would reveal if it has a share buyback plan in
place.

Seek companies where earnings have risen as retained earnings (earnings after paying dividends) have been
employed profitably. A great way to screen for such companies is by looking at those that have had consistent
earnings and strong return on equity in the past.

Consider it a positive sign when a company is able to earn above-average (better than competitors) returns on equity
without employing much debt. Average return on equity for Indian companies over the last 10 years is approximately
16%. Thus, seek companies that earn at least this much (16%) or more than this. Again, consistency is the key here.

That's what is called "pricing power". Companies with moat (as seen from other screening metrics as suggested above
(like high ROE, high grow margins, low debt etc.) are able to adjust prices to inflation without the risk of losing
significant volume sales.
Companies that consistently need capital to grow their sales and profits are like bank savings account, and thus bad
for an investor's long term portfolio. Seek companies that don't need high capital investments consistently. Retained
earnings must first go toward maintaining current operations at competitive levels, so the lower the amount needed to
maintain current operations, the better. Here, more than just an absolute assessment, a comparison against
competitors will help a lot. Seek companies that consistently generate positive and rising free cash flows.

Sensible investing is always about using “folly and discipline” - the discipline to identify excellent businesses, and wait
for the folly of the market to drive down the value of these businesses to attractive levels. You will have little trouble
understanding this philosophy. However, its successful implementation is dependent upon your dedication to learn and
follow the principles, and apply them to pick stocks successfully.

Focus on decisions, not outcomes. Look for disconfirming evidence.

 Balance Sheet
APL APOLLO TUBES LTD
Rs Cr Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18
Equity Share Capital 20 20 20 21 22 23 23 23 24 24
Reserves 146 171 209 270 341 402 472 544 680 814
Borrowings 179 157 239 311 445 505 482 651 594 775
Other Liabilities 26 47 86 104 189 220 347 444 561 580
Total 371 395 554 706 997 1,150 1,324 1,662 1,859 2,193

Net Block 59 101 182 223 323 420 614 666 670 886
Capital Work in Progress 12 20 19 46 15 28 24 32 122 46
Investments 2 - 2 0 1 18 19 13 0 1
Other Assets 298 274 352 437 658 685 667 951 1,066 1,260
Total 371 395 554 706 997 1,150 1,324 1,662 1,859 2,193

Working Capital 272 227 266 333 469 465 320 507 505 680
Debtors 73 78 101 173 219 249 175 220 295 432
Inventory 44 81 147 152 288 288 320 594 470 591
Cash & Bank** 4,735 3,367 3,190 3,393 2,605 3,546 4,739 5,829
** Manually enter this number; Convert to Rs Crore if not already done in the Annual Reports; Use Cash+Bank+Current Investments from Consolidated Balance Sheet in Annual Reports

Debtor Days 51 47 41 45 40 36 21 19 27 30
Inventory Turnover 12 8 6 9 7 9 10 7 8 9
Fixed Asset Turnover 8.8 6.1 5.0 6.2 6.2 5.9 5.0 6.2 5.9 6.0
Debt/Equity 1.1 0.8 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.0 1.1 0.8 0.9
Return on Equity 2% 16% 19% 17% 19% 14% 13% 18% 22% 19%
Return on Capital Employed 8% 18% 18% 18% 18% 16% 17% 19% 22% 20%
 Profit & Loss Account / Income Statement
APL APOLLO TUBES LTD
Rs Cr Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Trailing
Sales 522 610 899 1,392 2,008 2,497 3,090 4,154 3,924 5,335 6,578
% Growth YOY 17% 47% 55% 44% 24% 24% 34% -6% 36%
Expenses 499 557 810 1,277 1,849 2,332 2,908 3,872 3,591 4,963 6,221
Material Cost (% of Sales) 86% 86% 84% 84% 88% 91% 87% 86% 82% 87% Check for wide fluctuations in key
Power and Fuel 1% 2% 1% 1% 2% 2% 2% 1% 1% 1% expense items. For manufacturing
Other Mfr. Exp 2% 2% 2% 2% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% firms, check their material costs etc. For
Employee Cost 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 2% 2% 2% services firms, look at employee costs.
Selling and Admin Cost 4% 4% 4% 3% 3% 0% 5% 5% 4% 3%
Operating Profit 23 53 90 115 160 165 182 282 333 371 357
Operating Profit Margin 4% 9% 10% 8% 8% 7% 6% 7% 8% 7% 5%
Other Income 6 13 2 0 1 2 4 -15 6 8 11
Other Income as % of Sales 1.1% 2.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% -0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.2%
Depreciation 2 4 6 9 13 16 22 34 51 53 62
Interest 19 17 23 34 43 61 66 70 72 81 107
Interest Coverage(Times) 1 4 4 3 3 2 2 3 4 4 3
Profit before tax (PBT) 8 45 63 72 105 89 98 163 216 244 198
% Growth YOY 487% 38% 16% 45% -15% 10% 67% 33% 13%
PBT Margin 1% 7% 7% 5% 5% 4% 3% 4% 6% 5% 3%
Tax 5 16 20 23 36 30 34 62 64 86 67
Net profit 3 30 43 49 69 59 64 101 152 158 131
% Growth YOY 1072% 45% 14% 40% -14% 8% 58% 51% 4%
Net Profit Margin 0% 5% 5% 4% 3% 2% 2% 2% 4% 3% 2%
EPS 1.3 14.7 21.2 23.0 30.7 25.2 27.2 42.9 64.5 66.6 55.2
% Growth YOY 1072% 45% 9% 33% -18% 8% 58% 50% 3%
Price to earning 40.8 8.1 6.4 8.1 5.5 8.4 16.0 17.8 19.5 32.1 25.3
Price 51 119 137 186 169 211 434 762 1,255 2,138 1,395
Dividend Payout 0.0% 13.6% 9.4% 8.7% 16.3% 19.9% 22.1% 23.3% 18.6% 21.0%
Market Cap 104 241 278 395 376 495 1,018 1,785 2,960 5,073
Retained Earnings 3 26 39 45 57 47 50 77 124 125
Buffett's $1 Test 8.4

TRENDS: 10 YEARS 7 YEARS 5 YEARS 3 YEARS

Sales Growth 29.5% 29.0% 21.6% 20.0%
PBT Growth 46.7% 21.5% 18.4% 35.8%
PBT Margin 4.7% 4.5% 4.1% 4.7%
Price to Earning 16.3 15.3 18.7 23.1

Check for long term vs short term trends here. Check if the growth over
past 3 or 5 years has slowed down / improved compared to long term (7
to 10 years) growth numbers.
 Cash Flow Statement
APL APOLLO TUBES LTD
Rs Cr Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Total
Cash from Operating Activity (CFO) 1 14 33 37 26 133 315 11 315 91 977
% Growth YoY 1057% 140% 12% -31% 419% 137% -96% 2696% -71%
Cash from Investing Activity -65 -36 -109 -91 -105 -128 -191 -93 -170 -165 -1,153
Cash from Financing Activity 152 -44 71 37 88 -9 -124 81 -145 79 186
Net Cash Flow 89 -67 -5 -17 9 -4 -0 -1 0 5 10
CFO/Sales 0% 2% 4% 3% 1% 5% 10% 0% 8% 2%
CFO/Net Profit 47% 47% 77% 76% 37% 225% 494% 11% 207% 58%
Capex** 315 212 364 565 607 937 1,156 1,638 1,238 824
FCF -314 -198 -331 -528 -581 -804 -841 -1,627 -923 -733 -6,879
Average FCF (3 Years) -1,094
FCF Growth YoY -37% 67% 60% 10% 38% 5% 93% -43% -21%
FCF/Sales -60% -32% -37% -38% -29% -32% -27% -39% -24% -14%
FCF/Net Profit ### -664% -768% -1076% -847% -1364% -1320% -1618% -607% -463%

** Manually enter this number;

Convert to Rs Crore if not already
done in the Annual Reports; Use
"Capital expenditure" number
shown under "Cash Flow from
Investing Activities" segment of
Consolidated Cash Flow Statement
available in the Annual Reports
 Key Ratios
APL APOLLO TUBES LTD
Mar/09 Mar/10 Mar/11 Mar/12 Mar/13 Mar/14 Mar/15 Mar/16 Mar/17
Sales Growth 17.0% 47.4% 54.8% 44.2% 24.3% 23.7% 34.4% -5.5%
PBT Growth 486.6% 37.7% 15.8% 44.9% -15.3% 9.8% 66.9% 32.5%
Net Profit Growth 1072.4% 44.7% 13.9% 39.9% -14.1% 8.1% 57.7% 51.3%
Dividend Growth #DIV/0! 0.0% 4.9% 162.0% 5.0% 20.0% 66.7% 20.8%
Operating Cash Flow Growth 1056.7% 140.3% 11.8% -31.4% 419.0% 137.2% -96.4% ###
Free Cash Flow Growth -37.0% 67.3% 59.5% 10.2% 38.3% 4.6% 93.4% -43.3%

Operating Margin 4.4% 8.7% 10.0% 8.3% 7.9% 6.6% 5.9% 6.8% 8.5%
PBT Margin 1.5% 7.5% 7.0% 5.2% 5.2% 3.6% 3.2% 3.9% 5.5%
Net Margin 0.5% 4.9% 4.8% 3.5% 3.4% 2.4% 2.1% 2.4% 3.9%

Debtor Days 50.9 46.8 41.1 45.5 39.9 36.5 20.7 19.3 27.4
Inventory Turnover 11.7 7.6 6.1 9.1 7.0 8.7 9.7 7.0 8.4
Fixed Asset Turnover 8.8 6.1 5.0 6.2 6.2 5.9 5.0 6.2 5.9
Debt/Equity 1.1 0.8 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.0 1.1 0.8
Debt/Assets 48.2% 39.8% 43.1% 44.0% 44.6% 43.9% 36.4% 39.1% 32.0%
Interest Coverage (Times) 1.4 3.6 3.8 3.2 3.4 2.5 2.5 3.3 4.0
Return on Equity 1.5% 15.6% 18.8% 16.9% 18.9% 13.9% 12.9% 17.7% 21.6%
Return on Capital Employed 7.7% 18.0% 18.2% 17.6% 18.3% 16.1% 16.8% 19.1% 22.2%
Free Cash Flow (Rs Cr) -314 -198 -331 -528 -581 -804 -841 -1,627 -923
Mar/18
36.0%
13.1%
4.0%
17.3%
-71.0%
-20.6%

7.0%
4.6%
3.0%

29.6
9.0
6.0
0.9
35.4%
4.0
18.9%
20.2%
-733
What to look for?
Higher is better, but also look for long term stability and consistency
Higher is better, but also look for long term stability and consistency
Higher is better, but also look for long term stability and consistency
Higher isn't always better, esp. when the company is generating high ROE, which means the management is allocating capital
Higher is better, but also look for long term stability and consistency
Higher is better, but also look for long term stability and consistency

Higher is better, but also look for long term stability and consistency, plus the nature of the industry. Also compare with industry
Higher is better, but also look for long term stability and consistency, plus the nature of the industry. Also compare with industry
Higher is better, but also look for long term stability and consistency, plus the nature of the industry. Also compare with industry

Lower/reducing is better. Compare with industry peer(s)

Higher/rising is better. Compare with industry peer(s)
Higher/rising is better. Compare with industry peer(s)
Nil / lower than 0.5 / reducing is better
Lower is better
Look for number > 5
Look for number > 20%. Also check if the debt is low/nil. Compare with industry peer(s)
Look for number > 20%. Also check if the debt is low/nil. Compare with industry peer(s)
Look for positive and rising numbers. If the company consistently generates negative FCF over say 10 years, avoid it.
12% Profit Margin Capital Alloc
25%
Check for a rising trend and
10% 20% Numbers > 20% long term a
has zero/marginal debt. Com
8%
15%
6%
10%
4%
2% Check for a rising trend and/or consistency. 5%
Compare with a close competitor
0% 0%
Jan/09 Jan/11 Jan/13 Jan/15 Jan/17 Jan/09 Jan/11 Jan

Operating Margin PBT Margin

Net Margin ROE

6,000
Revenue Revenue and Pro
1200%
Check for a rising trend. Check for a ris
5,000 1000% Compare grow

4,000 800%
600%
3,000
400%
2,000
200%
1,000
0%
- Jan/10 Jan/12
-200%
Jan/09 Jan/11 Jan/13 Jan/15 Jan/17 Revenue Growth
Net Profit Grow

300 Profit Over Time Operating and

500 Check
Check for a rising trend. for positive numbe
250 which are rising over tim
-
200 Jan/09 Jan/11 Ja
-500
150
-1,000
100
50 -1,500
- -2,000
Jan/09 Jan/11 Jan/13 Jan/15 Jan/17

PBT Net Profit Operating Cash Flo

Data for Charts (Please don't touch any number below)
Margins
Mar/09 Mar/10 Mar/11 Mar/12 Mar/13 Mar/14 Mar/15 Mar/16 Mar/17
Operating Margin 4% 9% 10% 8% 8% 7% 6% 7% 8%
PBT Margin 1% 7% 7% 5% 5% 4% 3% 4% 6%
Net Margin 0% 5% 5% 4% 3% 2% 2% 2% 4%

Management Effectiveness
Mar/09 Mar/10 Mar/11 Mar/12 Mar/13 Mar/14 Mar/15 Mar/16 Mar/17
ROE 2% 16% 19% 17% 19% 14% 13% 18% 22%
ROCE 8% 18% 18% 18% 18% 16% 17% 19% 22%

Revenue & Profit Growth

Mar/10 Mar/11 Mar/12 Mar/13 Mar/14 Mar/15 Mar/16 Mar/17 Mar/18
Revenue Growth 17% 47% 55% 44% 24% 24% 34% -6% 36%
PBT Growth 487% 38% 16% 45% -15% 10% 67% 33% 13%
Net Profit Growth 1072% 45% 14% 40% -14% 8% 58% 51% 4%

Revenue & Profit

Mar/09 Mar/10 Mar/11 Mar/12 Mar/13 Mar/14 Mar/15 Mar/16 Mar/17
Revenue 522 610 899 1,392 2,008 2,497 3,090 4,154 3,924
PBT 8 45 63 72 105 89 98 163 216
Net Profit 3 30 43 49 69 59 64 101 152

Cash Flows
Mar/09 Mar/10 Mar/11 Mar/12 Mar/13 Mar/14 Mar/15 Mar/16 Mar/17
Operating Cash Flow 1 14 33 37 26 133 315 11 315
Free Cash Flow -314 -198 -331 -528 -581 -804 -841 -1,627 -923
%
Capital Allocation Quality
Check for a rising trend and/or consistency.
Numbers > 20% long term are good. Also check if the company
% has zero/marginal debt. Compare with a close competitor Note: Please ignore the dates
% on the X-axis. The figures are
for/as on the year ending date,
% which for most Indian
companies would be 31st
% March of that year

%
Jan/09 Jan/11 Jan/13 Jan/15 Jan/17

ROE ROCE

% Revenue and Profit Growth (YoY)

Check for a rising trend and/or low volatility.
% Compare growth rates with a close competitor.

%
%
%
%
%
Jan/10 Jan/12 Jan/14 Jan/16 Jan/18
%
Revenue Growth PBT Growth
Net Profit Growth

Operating and Free Cash Flow

0 Check for positive numbers and
which are rising over time.
-
Jan/09 Jan/11 Jan/13 Jan/15 Jan/17
0
0
0
0

Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow

Mar/18
7%
5%
3%

Mar/18
19%
20%

Mar/18
5,335
244
158

Mar/18
91
-733
 Common Size P&L
Rs Cr Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17
Sales 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Raw Material Cost 86% 86% 84% 84% 88% 91% 87% 86% 82% 87%
Change in Inventory -1% 2% 2% 0% 3% 2% 0% 1% 0% 1%
Power and Fuel 1% 2% 1% 1% 2% 2% 2% 1% 1% 1%
Other Mfr. Exp 2% 2% 2% 2% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1%
Employee Cost 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 2% 2% 2%
Selling and Admin Cost 4% 4% 4% 3% 3% 0% 5% 5% 4% 3%
Other Expenses 0% 0% -1% 0% 0% 1% -1% -1% 0% 1%
Operating Profit 5% 4% 6% 8% 3% 2% 6% 6% 9% 4%
Other Income 1% 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Depreciation 0% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1%
Interest 4% 3% 3% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2%
Profit Before Tax 1% 7% 7% 5% 5% 4% 3% 4% 6% 5%
Tax 1% 3% 2% 2% 2% 1% 1% 2% 2% 2%
Net Profit 0% 5% 5% 4% 3% 2% 2% 2% 4% 3%
Dividend Amount 0% 1% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 1% 1% 1%

Common Size Balance Sheet

Rs Cr Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17
Equity Share Capital 5% 5% 4% 3% 2% 2% 2% 1% 1% 1%
Reserves 39% 43% 38% 38% 34% 35% 36% 33% 37% 37%
Borrowings 48% 40% 43% 44% 45% 44% 36% 39% 32% 35%
Other Liabilities 7% 12% 15% 15% 19% 19% 26% 27% 30% 26%
Total Liabilities 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Net Block 16% 25% 33% 32% 32% 37% 46% 40% 36% 40%
Capital Work in Progress 3% 5% 3% 6% 2% 2% 2% 2% 7% 2%
Investments 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 2% 1% 1% 0% 0%
Other Assets 80% 69% 63% 62% 66% 60% 50% 57% 57% 57%
Total Assets 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Receivables 20% 20% 18% 25% 22% 22% 13% 13% 16% 20%
Inventory 12% 20% 26% 22% 29% 25% 24% 36% 25% 27%
Cash & Bank 25% 7% 4% 1% 1% 1% 1% 0% 0% 0%
 A common-size financial statement is displays line
items as a percentage of one selected or common
figure. Creating common-size financial statements
makes it easier to analyze a company over time and
compare it with its peers. Using common-size
financial statements helps investors spot trends that
a raw financial statement may not uncover.
 Dhandho Intrinsic Value Calculation
Read the book - The Dhandho Investor by Mohnish Pabrai

APL APOLLO TUBES LTD APL APOLLO TUBES LTD

Dhandho IV - Lower Range Dhandho IV - Higher Range
Year FCF (Rs Cr) PV of FCF (Rs Cr) Assumed FCF Growth Year
0 Excess Cash (Latest) 5,829 Year 1-3 15% 0 Excess Cash (Latest)
1 FY18 (1,258) (1,123) Year 4-6 10% 1 FY18
2 FY19 (1,447) (1,153) Year 7-10 5% 2 FY19
3 FY20 (1,664) (1,184) Discount Rate 12% 3 FY20
4 FY21 (1,830) (1,163) 4 FY21
5 FY22 (2,013) (1,142) Last 5-Years' CAGR 5 FY22
6 FY23 (2,215) (1,122) Sales 22% 6 FY23
7 FY24 (2,325) (1,052) PBT 18% 7 FY24
8 FY25 (2,442) (986) FCF 5% 8 FY25
9 FY26 (2,564) (925) 9 FY26
10 FY27 (2,692) (867) 10 FY27
10 -26,920 (8,667) 10
Intrinsic Value (13,557) Intrinsic Value
Current Mkt. Cap. 3,312 Current Mkt. Cap.
Premium/(Discount) to IV -124% Premium/(Discount) to IV

Note: See explanation of this model here

P.S. In case of companies earning negative FCF, where this model will not work, you must use a normalized positive FCF as
starting number. This number is your assumption of FCF the business will earn in a normal year, without capex. Check the his
this business while arriving at your assumption, and use your judgment wisely without twisting the model to fit your version of
Calculation
by Mohnish Pabrai

APL APOLLO TUBES LTD

Dhandho IV - Higher Range
FCF (Rs Cr) PV of FCF (Rs Cr) Assumed FCF Growth
Excess Cash (Latest) 5,829 Year 1-3 20%
(1,313) (1,172) Year 4-6 15%
(1,575) (1,256) Year 7-10 10%
(1,891) (1,346) Discount Rate 12%
(2,174) (1,382)
(2,500) (1,419)
(2,875) (1,457)
(3,163) (1,431)
(3,479) (1,405)
(3,827) (1,380)
(4,210) (1,355)
(63,145) (20,331)
Intrinsic Value (28,104)
Current Mkt. Cap. 3,312
Premium/(Discount) to IV -112%

ust use a normalized positive FCF as the

al year, without capex. Check the history of
sting the model to fit your version of reality.
 Ben Graham Formula (Low Range) Ben Graham Formula (High Range)
Company Name APL APOLLO TUBES LTD Company Name
Year Ended Mar/18 Year Ended

Avg 5-Yr Net Profit (Rs Crore) 106.7 Avg 5-Yr Net Profit (Rs Crore)
PE Ratio at 0% Growth 8.5 PE Ratio at 0% Growth
Long-Term Growth Rate 9.1 Long-Term Growth Rate

Ben Graham Value (Rs Crore) 2,845 Ben Graham Value (Rs Crore)
Current Market Cap (Rs Crore) 3,312 Current Market Cap (Rs Crore)

EXPLANATION
Ben Graham's Original Formula: Value = EPS x (8.5 + 2G)
Here, EPS is the trailing 12 month EPS, 8.5 is the P/E ratio of a stock with 0% growth and g is the growth rate for the next 7-10

Ben Graham's Revised Formula: Value = [EPS x (8.5 + 2G) x 4.4] / Y

Here, 4.4 is what Graham determined to be his minimum required rate of return. At the time of around 1962 when Graham was

Note: I have used Graham's original formula in the above calculations

m Formula (High Range)
APL APOLLO TUBES LTD
Mar/18

106.7
8.5
18.2

4,783
3,312

g is the growth rate for the next 7-10 years

e of around 1962 when Graham was publicizing his works, the risk free interest rate was 4.4% but to adjust to the present, we divide this nu
e present, we divide this number by today’s AAA corporate bond rate, represented by Y in the formula above.
 Dicounted Cash Flow Valuation
APL APOLLO TUBES LTD

Initial Cash Flow (Rs Cr) (1,094) ###

3,312
Years 1-5 6-10 -752%
FCF Growth Rate 15% 12%
Discount Rate 12%
Terminal Growth Rate 2%

Net Debt Level (Rs Cr) (5,054)

Year FCF Growth Present Value

1 (1,258) 15% (1,123)
2 (1,447) 15% (1,153)
3 (1,664) 15% (1,184)
4 (1,914) 15% (1,216)
5 (2,201) 15% (1,249)
6 (2,465) 12% (1,249)
7 (2,760) 12% (1,249)
8 (3,092) 12% (1,249)
9 (3,463) 12% (1,249)
10 (3,878) 12% (1,249)

Final Calculations
Terminal Year (3,956)
PV of Year 1-10 Cash Flows ###
Terminal Value ###
Total PV of Cash Flows ###
Current Market Cap (Rs Cr) 3,312

Note: See explanation of DCF here

Valuation
LTD

DCF Value (As calculated in cell B29)

Current Market Cap
DCF as % of Current Mkt Cap
 Expected Returns Model
APL APOLLO TUBES LTD
Particulars Mar/09 Mar/10 Mar/11 Mar/12 Mar/13 Mar/14 Mar/15
Net Profit (Rs Crore) 3 30 43 49 69 59 64
Net Profit Margin 0% 5% 5% 4% 3% 2% 2%
Return on Equity 2% 16% 19% 17% 19% 14% 13%

Calculations (Enter values only in black cells)

Estimated CAGR in Net Profit over next 10 years 12%
Estimated Net Profit after 10 years (Rs Cr) 491
Current P/E (x) 20.9
Exit P/E in the 10th year from now (x, Estimated) 20.0
Esti. Market Cap (10th year from now; Rs Cr) 9,823
Cost of Capital/Discount Rate 12%
Discounted Value (Rs Cr) 3,163
Current Market Cap (Rs Cr) 3,312

Note: See explanation of this model here

el
Mar/16 Mar/17 Mar/18 CAGR (9-Yr) CAGR (5-Yr)
101 152 158 58% 18%
2% 4% 3%
18% 22% 19%
 Intrinsic Value Range
APL APOLLO TUBES LTD
Lower Higher Remember! Give importance to a stock's valuations / fair v
Dhandho -13,557 ### only "after" you have answered in "Yes" to these two quest
Ben Graham 2,845 4,783 (1) Is this business simple to be understood? and (2) Ca
DCF -24,905 understand this business?
Expected Return 3,163
Don't try to quantify everything. In stock research, the less
Current Market Cap. 3,312 mathematical you are, the more simple, sensible, and usefu
be your analysis and results. Great analysis is generally "b
of-the-envelope".
Explanation: Considering the above
range, we can say that Hero Moto's IV Also, your calculated "fair value" will be proven wrong in
range is between Rs 55,000 crore to Rs future, so don't invest your savings just because you fall in
95,000 crore. It's a big range, but that's with it. Don't look for perfection. It is overrated. Focus o
fine (who is looking for precision?). Now, decisions, not outcomes. Look for disconfirming eviden
if the current market cap is within this IV
range, it makes the stock
reasonably/attractively priced. If the
current market cap is higher then the
higher value of the range, it makes it
overpriced. But remember, these are just
numbers!
 importance to a stock's valuations / fair value
ave answered in "Yes" to these two questions -
ness simple to be understood? and (2) Can I
understand this business?

fy everything. In stock research, the less non-

are, the more simple, sensible, and useful will
and results. Great analysis is generally "back-
of-the-envelope".

lated "fair value" will be proven wrong in the

vest your savings just because you fall in love
ook for perfection. It is overrated. Focus on
outcomes. Look for disconfirming evidence.
APL APOLLO TUBES LTD
[Link]
Narration Sep-16 Dec-16 Mar-17 Jun-17 Sep-17 Dec-17 Mar-18 Jun-18 Sep-18 Dec-18
Sales 922 944 1,082 1,156 1,345 1,314 1,519 1,677 1,690 1,691
% Growth YOY 46% 39% 40% 45% 26% 29%
Expenses 843 869 997 1,077 1,251 1,226 1,417 1,568 1,604 1,632
Operating Profit 79 74 86 79 94 88 103 109 86 59
Other Income -2 5 -1 10 2 2 2 4 2 3
Depreciation 17 11 13 12 12 14 15 15 16 16
Interest 16 21 15 18 21 20 23 26 31 27
Profit before tax 45 47 56 58 63 56 67 71 41 20
PBT Margin 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 4% 4% 4% 2% 1%
% Growth YOY 39% 19% 19% 21% -35% -65%
Tax 16 18 6 20 22 20 22 24 14 7
Net profit 29 29 50 39 41 36 45 47 27 13
% Growth YOY 39% 23% -11% 21% -34% -64%
OPM 9% 8% 8% 7% 7% 7% 7% 6% 5% 4%
COMPANY NAME APL APOLLO TUBES LTD
LATEST VERSION 2.10 PLEASE DO NOT MAKE ANY CHA
CURRENT VERSION 2.10

META
Number of shares 2.37
Face Value 10
Current Price 1394.75
Market Capitalization 3312.43

PROFIT & LOSS

Report Date Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14
Sales 521.52 609.92 899.2 1392.29 2008.28 2496.96
Raw Material Cost 448.19 521.84 752.34 1167.55 1759.27 2263.86
Change in Inventory -2.98 14.63 16.22 1.32 54.04 52.36
Power and Fuel 6.98 11.64 12.01 14.97 33.54 41.06
Other Mfr. Exp 12.81 12.4 21.71 26.35 10.27 21.71
Employee Cost 3.35 5.69 11.65 17.37 27.9 33.55
Selling and admin 23.27 22.26 33.61 46.75 62.5 11.72
Other Expenses 1.25 -2.56 -5.55 5.53 9.3 12.88
Other Income 5.8 13.01 1.79 0.31 0.93 1.78
Depreciation 2.1 3.61 6.19 9.32 12.51 16.43
Interest 18.64 17.22 22.65 33.59 42.95 60.93
Profit before tax 7.75 45.46 62.6 72.49 105.01 88.97
Tax 5.21 15.68 19.51 23.43 36.37 29.99
Net profit 2.54 29.78 43.09 49.06 68.64 58.98
Dividend Amount 4.06 4.06 4.26 11.16 11.72

Quarters
Report Date Sep-16 Dec-16 Mar-17 Jun-17 Sep-17 Dec-17
Sales 922.33 943.51 1082.23 1155.62 1345.36 1314.38
Expenses 842.85 869.03 996.51 1076.91 1251.42 1225.93
Other Income -2.06 4.8 -0.84 9.53 1.81 2.08
Depreciation 16.73 10.93 13.08 12.2 12.35 13.9
Interest 15.61 20.98 15.45 17.69 20.76 20.25
Profit before tax 45.08 47.37 56.35 58.35 62.64 56.38
Tax 15.76 18.26 6.44 19.5 21.94 20.45
Net profit 29.32 29.11 49.91 38.85 40.7 35.93
Operating Profit 79.48 74.48 85.72 78.71 93.94 88.45

BALANCE SHEET
Report Date Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14
Equity Share Capital 20.3 20.3 20.3 21.3 22.32 23.44
Reserves 145.73 170.76 209.12 269.81 341.39 401.78
Borrowings 178.9 157.25 239.2 310.61 444.87 504.8
Other Liabilities 25.9 46.7 85.78 104.08 188.81 220.23
Total 370.83 395.01 554.4 705.8 997.39 1150.25
Net Block 59.47 100.69 181.57 223.04 322.91 420.02
Capital Work in Progress 11.54 20.25 18.78 45.55 15.12 27.88
Investments 2.04 2.31 0.05 1.21 17.57
Other Assets 297.78 274.07 351.74 437.16 658.15 684.78
Total 370.83 395.01 554.4 705.8 997.39 1150.25
Receivables 72.71 78.17 101.29 173.39 219.37 249.43
Inventory 44.43 80.5 146.54 152.46 288.18 288.49
Cash & Bank 93.89 27.18 21.83 5.07 14.18 10.08
No. of Equity Shares 20296683 20296683 20296683 21296683 22323640 23438640
New Bonus Shares 969500
Face value 10 10 10 10 10 10

CASH FLOW:
Report Date Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14
Cash from Operating Activity 1.2 13.88 33.36 37.29 25.57 132.71
Cash from Investing Activity -64.5 -36.47 -109.33 -91.47 -104.92 -127.88
Cash from Financing Activity 152.16 -44.12 70.62 37.42 88.46 -8.93
Net Cash Flow 88.86 -66.71 -5.35 -16.76 9.11 -4.1

PRICE: 51.113889 118.58333 136.88158 185.5 168.53 211.22368

DERIVED:
Adjusted Equity Shares in Cr 2.03 2.03 2.03 2.13 2.23 2.34
DO NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THIS SHEET

Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18

3089.57 4153.75 3923.9 5334.77
2685.63 3575.7 3220.1 4624.39
4.94 21.12 -12.3 76.06
46.39 52.75 58.83 66.43
25.09 42.33 52.76 48.72
41.2 62.87 75.35 86.16
160.02 203.49 153.82 184.52
-45.48 -44.14 17.77 29.13
4.46 -15.28 5.97 7.57
22.01 34.1 50.9 53.41
66.44 69.51 72.03 81.3
97.67 162.98 216.01 244.34
33.92 62.42 63.9 86.21
63.75 100.56 152.11 158.13
14.06 23.44 28.31 33.22

Mar-18 Jun-18 Sep-18 Dec-18

1519.41 1676.53 1690.47 1691.2
1416.78 1567.87 1604.25 1631.97
1.9 3.74 1.89 3.24
14.96 15.2 16.15 15.7
22.6 26.31 30.96 27.14
66.97 70.89 41 19.63
22.46 23.9 14.32 6.76
44.51 46.99 26.68 12.87
102.63 108.66 86.22 59.23

Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18

 23.44 23.44 23.59 23.73
471.66 544.11 679.77 814.12
482.18 650.55 594.36 775.12
346.63 444.15 560.84 579.56
1323.91 1662.25 1858.56 2192.53
614.08 666.18 669.82 885.82
23.97 31.99 122.39 45.95
19.06 13.13 0.44 1.11
666.8 950.95 1065.91 1259.65
1323.91 1662.25 1858.56 2192.53
175.25 220.14 294.87 432.13
319.56 594.37 469.61 591.49
18.82 1.35 1.57 6.8
23438636 23438636 23589955 23729805

10 10 10 10

Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18

314.8 11.28 315.35 91.37
-190.88 -92.68 -169.7 -165.37
-124.32 80.88 -145.43 79.23
-0.4 -0.52 0.22 5.23

434.265 761.592105 1254.87105 2137.62857

2.34 2.34 2.36 2.37

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