SAS - Electric Load Forecasting: Fundamentals and Best
Practices
Code: BELF
Length: 2 days
URL: View Online
This course introduces electric load forecasting from both statistical and practical aspects using language and examples from the
power industry. Through conceptual and hands-on exercises, participants experience load forecasting for a variety of horizons
from a few hours ahead to 30 years ahead. The overall aims are to prepare and sharpen the statistical and analytical skills of
participants in dealing with real-world load forecasting problems and improve their ability to design, develop, document, and
report sound and defensible load forecasts.
According to statistics gathered on the first five offerings, this course was highly rated by students who ranged from new
graduates with no industry or SAS experience to forecasting experts with over 30 years of industry experience and over 20 years
of SAS programming background. The students represented all sectors of the industry: G&T, ISO, distribution companies, REPs,
IOU, co-op, municipal, regulatory commission, and consulting firm. Titles of the participants ranged from analyst, engineer,
manager, to director and vice president.
For advanced topics, pair this course with Electric Load Forecasting: Advanced Topics and Case Studies The two courses are
offered on contiguous days.
Skills Gained
classify load forecasts
use basic graphic methods to discover the salient features of load profiles
build a benchmark model for a wide range of utilities
capture special effects for a local utility
forecast loads for both small and large utilities
improve very short-term forecasting accuracy
perform weather normalization
use macroeconomic indicators for long-term load forecasts
detect outliers
continue improving forecasting practice
avoid making frequently made mistakes.
Who Can Benefit
Load/price forecasters, energy traders, quantitative/business analysts in the utility industry, power system planners, power
system operators, load research analysts, and rate design analysts
Prerequisites
Before attending this course, you should
have a basic knowledge of the utility industry
have a basic understanding of forecasting.
Course Details
Introduction to Electric Load Forecasting
overview of the electric power industry
business needs of load forecasts
driving factors of electricity consumption
classification of load forecasts
software applications
Salient Features of Electric Load Series
a general approach to electric load forecasting
overview of the data pool
trend and seasonality
more salient features
Multiple Linear Regression
naive models
trend
class variables
polynomial regression
interaction regression
rolling regression
A Naive Benchmark for Short-term Load Forecasting
motivation
criterion
a naive MLR benchmark
applications
two more salient features
Customizing the Benchmarking Model
recency effect
weekend effect
holiday effect
case studies
two more salient features
Very Short-Term Load Forecasting
hour ahead load forecasting
weighted least squares regression
dynamic regression
two-stage method
extensions
Medium/Long-Term Load Forecasting
macroeconomic indicator
weather normalization
forecasting with weather variation
forecasting with cross scenarios
Variables, Methods, Techniques, and Further Readings
load, weather, calendar, macroeconomic indicator, etc.
similar day and hierarchy
regression
ARIMA
exponential smoothing
support vector machine
artificial neural networks
fuzzy systems and fuzzy regression
relevant and readable books
load forecasting papers
training courses
Frequently Made Mistakes
counterexamples
expectation
data
models
decisions
Software Applications
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