Least Square Linear
Regression
(Harmonic Analysis of Tides)
Purposes
•Tidal Amplitudes and their phases
•Tidal Prediction (e.g. Sea level)
Equation
m
z (t ) So Ak cos(k t k )
k 1
Re-expressed:
z (t ) So A cos t B sin t
Least Square Method
2
^
J zt (i ) z (i ) 0
2
^
z (i ) So A cos t B sin t
The minimum least square error:
J
0
( parameter )
Thus:
m
J zt (i) So A cos t (i) B sin t (i)
2
i 1
Where:
J m
0 2 sin t (i) zt (i) So A cos t (i) B sin t (i)
B i 1
J m
0 2zt (i) So A cos t (i) B sin t (i)
So i 1
J m
0 2 cos t (i) zt (i) So A cos t (i) B sin t (i)
A i 1
Matrix form:
m m
m
m cos t (i ) sin t (i ) z t (i )
i 1 i 1 m
So i 1
m m m
cos t (i ) cos 2
t (i ) sin t (i ) cos t (i ) t
A z ( i ) cos t (i )
i 1 i 1 i 1 B m i 1
m m m z (i ) sin t (i )
i 1
sin t (i ) cos t (i ) sin t (i )
i 1
i 1
sin 2 t (i )
i 1
t
Or:
So
D A z
B
Therefore: So
A D 1
z
B
Amplitude: C A B 2 2
B 1
Phase: tan
A
Summary
m
sin t (i)
i 1
MATLAB
Algorithm 1. Elevation
Input 2. Currents
3. Formatting
(data) 4. etc
Matrix D
1. M2
2. 9 Cons
Constituents 3. 21 Cons
4. etc
Matrix y
Main Program
Amphase
Plots
Output Spreadsheet
Prediction
END
Example of Invalid Data (1)
Tide Elevation from Measurement and Forecasting
Priok 2003, 15 days, 9 Component, Year -16
320
270
Elevation (cm)
220
170
120
70
0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000
hours
Pengukuran Peramalan Linear (Pengukuran)
Example of Invalid Data (2)
Tides Data ,
Tanjung Priok 1999
350
300
Elevation (cm)
250
200
150
100
50
12/1/1998 3/11/1999 6/19/1999 9/27/1999 1/5/2000
0:00 0:00 0:00 0:00 0:00
Time (hrs)
Sensitivity Process Analysis
Proses Analisis
Sensitivity Sensitivitas
Process Analysis
Durasi Masukan
Bervariasi: 15, 30, 45,
60, 90, 180, 365 hari
420 Peramalan
Elevasi (cm)
380
340
Elevation
300
260
Thn Ke-1 + Thn Ke-1 + Thn Ke-1 + X1
Thn Ke-1
Thn Ke-1 + X1 X1 + X 2 X1+ X2+X3 + X2+…+Xn
220
12/13/199 2/26/1991 5/12/1991 7/26/1991 10/9/1991 12/23/199
X0:00
1
X2 X3 Xn
0 0:00
Komponen Peramalan
0:00 0:00 0:00 1 0:00
Bervariasi:
9, 16, dan 37
WaktuTime
(Tahun
(n-thke-n)
year)
Model Verification
Proses
Model Verifikasi
Verification Model
Process
(Dilakukan
at the di Tahun
first year Pertama)
420
380
(cm)
Elevasi
340
Elevation
300
260
220
12/31
Jan 1/30/
Feb3/1/1
Mar3/31/
Apr4/30/Mei
5/30/
Jun6/29/
Jul7/29/
Agt8/28/ 9/27/Okt
Sep 10/27 11/26Des
Nov 12/26
/1990 1991 991 1991 1991 1991 1991 1991 1991 1991 /1991 /1991 /1991
0:00 0:00 0:00 0:00 0:00 0:00 0:00 0:00 0:00 0:00 0:00 0:00 0:00
Forecasting
Dihitung RPE di 15 hari awal:
data RPE = (data-model)/data*100%
Time (n-th
Waktu (Tahunyear)
ke-n)
9 Components
Frequency Period
Component
(degree/hr) (hrs)
M2 28.984 12.42
S2 30.000 12.00
N2 28.439 12.66
K2 30.082 11.97
K1 15.041 23.93
O1 13.943 25.82
P1 14.958 24.07
M4 57.968 6.21
MS4 58.984 6.10
16 Components
Frequency Period
Component
(degree/hr) (hrs)
M2 28.984 12.42
S2 30.000 12.00
N2 28.439 12.66
K2 30.082 11.97
K1 15.041 23.93
O1 13.943 25.82
P1 14.958 24.07
Nu2 28.512 12.63
Mu2 27.968 12.87
2N2 27.895 12.91
OO1 16.139 22.31
M1 14.496 24.83
J1 15.585 23.10
Q1 13.398 26.87
L2 29.528 12.19
T2 29.958 12.02
37 Components
Frequency Period Frequency Period
Component Component
(degree/hr) (hrs) (degree/hr) (hrs)
M2 28.984 12.42 S1 15 24.000
S2 30.000 12.00 M1 14.496 24.834
N2 28.439 12.66 J1 15.585 23.099
K2 30.082 11.97 Mm 0.544 661.765
K1 15.041 23.93 Ssa 0.082 4390.244
O1 13.943 25.82 Sa 0.041 8780.488
P1 14.958 24.07 Msf 1.015 354.680
M4 57.968 6.210 Mf 1.098 327.869
MS4 58.984 6.103 r1 13.471 26.724
M6 86.952 4.140 Q1 13.398 26.870
MK3 44.025 8.177 T2 29.958 12.017
S4 60.000 6.000 R2 30.041 12.017
MN4 57.423 6.269 2Q1 12.854 11.984
Nu2 28.512 12.626 2SM 31.015 28.007
S6 90.000 4.000 M3 43.476 11.607
Mu2 27.968 12.872 L2 29.528 8.280
2N2 27.895 12.906 2MK 42.927 12.192
OO1 16.139 22.306 M8 115.936 8.386
Ld2 29.455 12.222
Model Verification (9 Components)
Tide Elevation
Elevasi fromHasil
Pasang Surut Measurement and
Pengukuran Forecasting
dan Peramalan
Sibolga 1991,
Sibolga 1991,Input
Input1515Hari,
days,9 Komponen, 15 Hari
9 Components, Pertama
first 15 days
380
360
Elevasi (cm)(cm)
340
Elevation
320
300
280
260
240
12/31/1990 0:00 1/4/1991 0:00 1/8/1991 0:00 1/12/1991 0:00 1/16/1991 0:00
Jam
hours
measurement
pengukuran forecasting
peramalan
Model Verification (16 Components)
Tide Elevation
Elevasi fromHasil
Pasang Surut Measurement
Pengukuranand
danForecasting
Peramalan
Sibolga 1991, Input 15 Hari, 16 Komponen, 15 Hari Pertama
Sibolga 1991, Input 15 days, 16 Components, first 15 days
400
380
Elevasi (cm)(cm)
360
340
Elevation
320
300
280
260
240
220
12/31/1990 0:00 1/4/1991 0:00 1/8/1991 0:00 1/12/1991 0:00 1/16/1991 0:00
Jam
hours
pengukuran
measurement peramalan
forecasting
Sibolga, 9 Components
Elevasi
Tide Pasangfrom
Elevation Surut Measurement
Hasil Pengukuran danForecasting
and Peramalan
Sibolga 1991, Input 15 Hari, 9 Komponen, Tahun ke-1
Sibolga 1991, Input 15 days, 9 Components, first year
420
400
380
Elevasi (cm)(cm)
360
340
Elevation
320
300
280
260
240
220
12/23/1990 0:00 3/8/1991 0:00 5/22/1991 0:00 8/5/1991 0:00 10/19/1991 0:00 1/2/1992 0:00
Jam
hours
measurement
pengukuran forecasting
peramalan
Sibolga, 16 Components
Tide Elevation
Elevasi from Hasil
Pasang Surut Measurement and
Pengukuran Forecasting
dan Peramalan
Sibolga 1991, Input 15 Hari, 16 Komponen, Tahun ke-1
Sibolga 1991, Input 15 days, 16 Components, first year
420
400
380
Elevasi (cm)(cm)
360
340
Elevation
320
300
280
260
240
220
12/23/1990 0:00 3/8/1991 0:00 5/22/1991 0:00 8/5/1991 0:00 10/19/1991 0:00 1/2/1992 0:00
Jam
hours
pengukuran
measurement peramalan
forecasting
Final Project
• Stay focus with your group.
• Download Tide Software (KL Tide) from the FTP site.
• Use tide data from Tangguh, Papua for month of
August 2006 and create a file from those data (see
an example of “30 hari” data on folder “tide”).
• Run Ptidal to predict the tide at Tangguh for 30
days, 180 days, and 1 year (365 days) using 4, 9, 16,
and 37 components (see examples).
• Calculate the Formzahl Number for Tangguh, Papua
and define the type of tides at that region.
• Please write a report (incl figures) in English (you
can use ODV software for your report as well).
• Due date : at Final Exam (Des 10, 2014 at 1pm).
Tides
