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Brexit: What will happen if MPs reject Theresa May's deal?
By Ben Wright Political correspondent, BBC News

2 hours ago

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Brexit

Image copyright PA

It feels like Westminster is tumbling towards a political crisis without modern

Soon, perhaps in the second week of December, the House of Commons will debate and
then vote upon a government motion to approve the EU withdrawal agreement and
accompanying political declaration. The terms of the UK's departure from the EU.

But at the moment, it looks as if Theresa May faces an incredibly hard job getting
it passed.

She leads a government with a working majority of just 13. Only seven Tory rebels
are needed to defeat it.

EU won't offer 'better deal' on Brexit - May

But according to the latest number-crunching by BBC researchers, 81 Tory MPs have
said they object to the deal Mrs May hopes to sign off with EU leaders on Sunday.

With Labour, the Liberal Democrats, the SNP and even perhaps the DUP set to vote
against the motion too, the withdrawal agreement looks set to be torpedoed in the
Commons.

Between now and then Theresa May will exhaustively insist the deal is in the
national interest and the only way of ensuring Brexit happens.

But if the withdrawal agreement is defeated, what happens then?

It is the burning question in Westminster and everyone has an opinion.

This week, the new work and pensions secretary Amber Rudd said the House of Commons
"will stop no deal".

Shadow Chancellor John McDonnell said it was "very difficult to predict at the
moment what the final outcome will be".

And the former Tory cabinet minister (and now advocate for another referendum)
Justine Greening said there was "no majority for any route forward".

Which may be true but doesn't solve the huge political problem MPs will face if the
deal is chucked out.
Leave without a deal

Crucially, the default position in that scenario would be for the UK to leave
without a deal.

Under both EU law and the UK's Withdrawal Act, Brexit day is chiselled into the
diary for 11pm on 29 March, 2019.

That's when the EU Treaties will stop applying to the UK.

If Parliament rejects the deal, the same Withdrawal Act sets out what the
government must do next.

Ministers would have up to 21 days to make a statement to the Commons on "how it

The government would then have a further seven days to move a motion in the
Commons, allowing MPs to express their view on the government's course of action.
Media captionRadio 4 The World at One asks: What will happen if Parliament rejects
the Brexit plan?

Crucially though, this would not be opportunity for MPs to throw a road-block in
the way of a no-deal Brexit if that's what the government wanted to happen.

The motion would probably not be amendable, nor would its defeat carry the legal
force to stop the UK leaving without a deal next March.

Instead, the government would have to put new legislation before Parliament and
secure the approval of MPs if it did not want the UK to leave without a deal.

As the clerk of the House of Commons, Sir David Natzler, told a committee of MPs
last month, "there is no House procedure that can overcome statute. Statute is
overturned by statute."

Can May get Brexit deal through Commons?

Have another go
Image copyright PA
Image caption Sir David Natzler (seated, front left) says MPs could vote again

But in addition to the rigid legal position there would be the frenzied political
reality.

The maximum three week window between the government's deal being defeated and the
requirement on ministers to propose a way forward would see several alternative
scenarios come into play.

The prime minister could make a second attempt at getting the withdrawal deal
through the Commons.

Sir David Natzler said, in procedural terms, that would be possible.

"The words might be the same but the underlying reality would be self-evidently be
different", Sir David said.

Brussels might be persuaded to tweak the political declaration on the future

But with the Commons so fractured in its various objections would that make much
difference?

More significant could be panic on the markets and that might change minds in
parliament.

Alternatively, MPs might suddenly shift in large numbers towards the idea of
another referendum to break the Parliamentary impasse and open the possibility of
stopping Brexit.

At the moment, about eight Tory and 44 Labour MPs have publicly committed to
another referendum.

The Labour leadership has said all options should remain on the table (including
another referendum) and the SNP and Lib Dems say there should be one too.

However, a second referendum can only happen if the government brings forward
legislation to hold one and a majority in the Commons supports it.

Theresa May is dead set against another referendum and it's hard to see an
alternative Tory leader picking up that baton.
A general election
Image copyright Getty Images

But perhaps there will be a general election instead?

That is Labour's preferred outcome to the deal being rejected.

There are two routes to a general election through the Fixed Term Parliament Act
and both involve motions of confidence in the Commons.

But as Dr Jack Simson Caird from the Bingham Centre for the Rule of Law says, "with
the ticking clock of Article 50 it's very difficult to see that this represents a
solution to the problem."

That will be the other critical factor at play.

Unless the government asks for an extension to the negotiating period (and Number
10 has ruled that out) the time for parliament and the government to agree a way
forward is incredibly tight.
The clock won't wait.
'Negotiated no deal'
Image copyright Getty Images

Another idea that has been floated is a "negotiated no deal" in the which the UK
would ask the EU for a (paid) one year extension of membership before leaving on
World Trade Organisation terms.

Some Brexiteers might like the idea but it's hard to see Parliament supporting such
a move - with or without an explicit vote.

Because Parliament will have to come to a view.

As Maddy Thimont Jack, from the Institute for Government think tank says: "We do
have Parliamentary sovereignty and there are clear ways for Parliament to express a
very strong political view.

"I cannot see how a government can get through a legislative programme, for no
deal, for example, if you don't have the support of Parliament."

Theresa May might have neutralised the chance of defeat in the Commons if she had
found a Parliamentary consensus for the Brexit she planned to negotiate right at
the start of the process.

Instead, she faces three fraught weeks and a vote that will define the country's
future for many years.

Right now, it looks like the government's deal cannot get through the Commons.

But the mood in Westminster could shift quickly in the current pandemonium.
Related Topics

Brexit

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