HAZARDS

Compiled by
Dr. Dipak Nath
Centre for Disaster Management,
Tezpur University

1. The concept of Hazard

Hazards are the harmful natural or man-made phenomena or events or objects that have
the potential to cause damage and disruption to our systems.

Disaster risk of a system is directly proportional to frequency, magnitude, exposure time

and other characteristics of the hazards. One aspect of disaster risk reduction is prevention
of hazard from striking our system or reduction of exposure time of the hazards. It is not
possible to prevent most of the natural hazards. But, prevention is possible in case of some
man-made hazards.

Primarily there are two types of hazards.

Natural Hazard: These are guided by natural forces, like, atmospheric pressure and
temperature; extreme rain; strain accumulation and release of energy in the earth’s crust
etc.

Man-made Hazards: These are linked to harmful human activities against natural laws
and unsustainable development.

2. Classification of hazards

Based on origin and nature of forces, we can divide natural and man-made hazards into
number of groups.

Geophysical

 Earthquake
 Tsunami
 Volcanic Eruption

Atmospheric and Hydrological

 Flood
 Drought
 Hurricane
 Lightning
 Hailstorm
 Avalanches
Land surface related

 Soil Erosion
 Desertification
 Landslide
 Subsidence
 Forest and range fires

Human interference

 Structural Damage
 Environmental hazards
 Civil unrest

Accident related hazards

Health hazards (Biological, Radiation and other health hazards)

The impact of hazards to the exposures depends on their response time, length of
forewarning, frequency, magnitude and time of exposure. Let us divide the hazards
according to these parameters.

Length of Time of
Type of hazard Response time Frequency
forewarning exposure
Geophysical
Seconds –
Earthquake Not predictable Random Long time
minute
Short time but
Tsunamis Hours Hours Random
highly intensive
Volcanic Minutes -
Minute – days Random Long time
Eruption weeks
Atmospheric and Hydrological
Flood Hours – days Hours – days Seasonal Hours - weeks
Drought weeks – months Months Seasonal Long time
Short time but
Hurricane minutes – hours Hours Seasonal
highly intensive
Hours and
Lightning seconds – hours Seconds – hours Seasonal
intensive
Hours and
Hailstorm Minutes – hours Minutes – hours Seasonal
intensive
Avalanches Minutes – days Minutes – days - Long time
Land Surface
Continuous
Soil Erosion Hours – days Hours – days Long time
process
Continuous
Desertification Years Years Long time
process
Landslide Minutes – days Minutes – days Random Short / long

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 time
Short time but
Subsidence Minutes – days - Random
permanent
Forest and
Hours – days - Random Long time
range fires
Human Impact
Engineering
Minutes - hours Long time Random Long time
faults
Environmental
Long time Long time Continuous Long time
problems
Civil unrest Minutes - days Long time Continuous Long time
Accident
related Seconds - Random Hours – days
Hazards
Biological Minutes -
Minutes - days - Random
Hazards weeks

Why the hazard assessment based on above-mentioned parameters is important for Risk
Assessment?

In fact, these parameters are the determinant factors of magnitude of probable loss and
damage to a system under the impact of a particular hazard. Let us discuss the role of these
parameters one by one.

Response time: Response time is the period, within which the vulnerable community has
to respond to a hazard to save their life and property.

People can not decide or take action for saving their life and property within short
response time. If the hazard is unpredictable and response time is very short, people gets
absolutely no time to save their life and property. In this case, amount of loss and damage
depends on magnitude of hazard. The best example is earthquake.

But, if the hazard is predictable and the response time is short, people can take advance
measure to avoid loss and damage to their life and property. Best example is lightning.

Length of forewarning: The time scale for forecasting a hazard before it strikes a system.

For some natural hazards, we get considerably long time for their forecasting. In this case,
magnitude of loss and damage could be minimized by taking immediate action, before the
occurrence of disaster. Example is seasonal flood.

For some hazards, forewarning time is either very short or zero. In this case, probability of
loss and damage is very high. We need long term plans for sustainable development to
minimize loss and damage. Example is earthquake.

Frequency: The number of times a particular hazard strikes a particular place within a
specific period of time.

The nature and frequency of hazards should be well defined in a hazard and location
specify disaster risk reduction plan.

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Time of Exposure: The period for which the affected community remains exposed to the
impact of a specific hazard.

The magnitude of loss and disruption may be very high, if a system remains exposed
under the impact of a specific hazard for long time. Example is drought.

Even a short exposure time can lead significant damage and disruption, if the magnitude of
hazard is very high. Example is flash flood.

3. Characteristics and problem areas of few natural hazards

The characteristics and problem areas of different hazards are not same. Naturally, impacts
of different hazards on their exposures are also different. For any risk reduction plan, it is
necessary to understand the characteristics of hazards, to which the system is exposed. The
loss and damage patterns are highly dependent on nature of hazards.

Let us see the cases of few natural hazards

3.1 Earthquake

Fig.: Structural damage of Bhuj Earthquake, Gujrat - 2001.

Photo source : undp.org.in/photogallery

General characteristic of the earthquake

 Earthquake is the manifestation of a geophysical phenomenon, hence purely a
natural event.
 The earthquake hazard is not predictable and hence it does not have any warning
sign.

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  Earthquake occurs suddenly, at any place of seismically sensitive zones.
 The frequency of earthquake is random, the occurrence of earthquakes in a
particular location and within a specific time frame can not be ascertained in
advance.
 Earthquake occurs only in certain locations of the glove.
 Earthquake creates permanent fault lines in the crust.
 Fault lines are also responsible for earthquake.

Now, to justify these characteristics let us explain the reasons.

To do so, first we need to understand the causes of earthquake.

If we consider the structure of Earth, the Earth’s crust is divided in to number of plates.
These plates are not static and moving horizontally with certain velocity, relative to each
other. The internal heat flow or convection current is mainly responsible for movements of
these plates.

Energy has been constantly accumulating in the plates (rock system) due to subduction
process and relative motions of the plates. When the accumulated energy in a certain plate
(rock system) goes beyond the threshold limit, the rock system releases excess energy by
means of rupture in the plate. The energy released in this process travels in different
directions in the form of wave and cause ground vibration, which we call Earthquake.

That’s why, Earthquake is a Geophysical Phenomenon.

Why prediction of an Earthquake is not possible?

Because, we do not have much information about

 Geological characteristics of the rock system (plates), in which strain is

accumulating.
 Elastic limit of the rock to bear the stress or threshold limit of strain.
 Total energy accumulated in different rocks (plates) so far.
 In which plates, accumulated energy already reached to its threshold value.
 Whether the process of energy release in the rock system already stared with small
earthquakes and by creating small ruptures / cracks.
 How much energy already released by the process.
 Whether remaining energy is sufficient for major shock (big earthquake) etc.

For these reasons, we can not predict occurrence of earthquake in terms of time,
magnitude and location. It strikes our system suddenly and stays for very small time,

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without leaving space for saving our life and property. These reasons are also applicable
for the question, why the frequency of earthquakes in a specific location is random.

Why earthquake occurs only in certain regions of the world?

We have seen, earthquake occurs by the process of energy accumulation and release of
energy in the rock system of earth’s crust. Energy accumulated in the plates due to relative
movements of the plates and their subduction process. So, there are maximum chances of
ruptures in the locations close to plate boundaries, due to the process of energy release.
Real data of earthquakes also confirmed the fact that, most of the earthquakes occur in the
certain belts, close to plate boundaries.

Some well-known earthquake belts are

 Circum-Pacific belt.
 Alpine-Himalayan belt.
 Pamir-Baikal zone.
 Atlantic-Artic belt.
 Belt of Central Indian Ocean.
 Rift Zones.
 Wide-Triangular active area.

Fig.: Active belts of earthquake

Source: National Geophysical Research Institute, Tezpur branch

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Why earthquake creates fault lines and fault lines cause earthquake?

Fault line implies cracks or fracture in a particular rock mass in the earth’s crust. Since
earthquake energy releases by creating rupture in rock system of earth’s crust, thus each
earthquake creates a permanent fault line.

Faults are the weakest zones of the rock system. So, generally the earthquake energy
releases along the fault lines. Active faults are the sources of earthquakes, in which two
sides of the fracture move with respect to each other.

Problem areas of earthquake

A high magnitude earthquake may create several kinds of problems for the vulnerable
communities, response forces, and other agencies. Some problems are instantaneous and
some are related to secondary affects of earthquake-induced disaster.

Direct affects
 Large scale of destruction of buildings and infrastructures.
 Destruction of lifelines and essential services.
 Destruction of soil and landslide.
 Widespread fire in residential buildings and other establishments.
 Disturbance of man’s mind.

For these problems, we need urgent counter measures, specially search, rescue and
medical assistance.

Secondary affects

 Disturbance in public functions.

 Inundation due to earthquake induced flood.
 Leakage of poisonous gas.
 Panic.
 Problems in management of relief camps.
 Problems in handling large number of injured people.
 Lack of life goods.
 Social unrest.
 Restoration of public functioning and rebuilding.

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Contingency planning for earthquake damage mitigation
 Identification of earthquake prone areas.
 Identification of problems.
 Identification and mobilization of resources.
 Command and control.
 Advance preparatory action.

3.2 Flood

Fig.: Flood disaster in Sonitpur District, Assam

Photo: Centre for Disaster Management, Tezpur University

General characteristic of flood hazard

 Flood is the product of atmospheric and hydrological phenomena.
 The forewarning time may be long, short or zero depending on types of flood.
 Speed of onset for normal flood is long / gradual.
 Speed of onset for flash flood is sudden.
 Most floods are seasonal, but frequency may be more than one.
 All locations in the glove are not vulnerable to flood.

Causes of flood

Let us discuss the issues related to causes of flood to justify the above mentioned
characteristics of flood.

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A flood is the condition of partial or complete inundation in an area, which otherwise
remains dry. The common reasons of flood are

 High runoff of surface water from high land to low-lying areas.

 Overflow of river or tidal water.

Floods can be divided into following types, based on the source and reasons for flood.

 River flood
 Ocean flood
 Manmade flood
 Engineering flood
 Flood due to earth’s movement

In any case, the main force behind a flood is “RAIN”. Many atmospheric conditions; like
temperature, evaporation of seawater, transpiration, precipitation etc.; are involved in the
process of Rain.

Second important condition for flood is flow pattern of water. We need a drainage/river
network to complete the water cycle, i.e., flow of water from watershed to ocean.

Here again two conditions applied for flood

 Rapid accumulation of local surface rain water in low lying areas due to blockade
in drainage network or absence of adequate drainage system.

 The carrying capacity of drainage network itself is not sufficient to carry the
catchment runoff, resulting overflow in low-lying areas.

All other conditions for flood are also related to runoff and flow pattern of water. If it is an
oceanic flood, water flows against the gravity under the impact of some other natural
forces. If it is an earthquake-induced flood, artificial landslide or a dam break may result
high discharge of storage water to drainage network, followed by overflow of water to low
lying areas.

So, both atmospheric and hydrological factors are involved in the process of flood
hazard.

Rain is a seasonal phenomenon. During monsoon period, we can expect flood.

So, most floods are seasonal.

Except the conditions applied for a flash flood, i.e., very high intensity rainfall within
short duration, generally floods occur in gradual manner. Because, water takes time to
reach the downstream from watershed, depending on runoff and distance.

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So, except flash flood, forewarning for most of the common floods is possible and that
too well before the flood strikes our system.

Only on certain conditions, like high tide, tsunami etc., water may flow against the gravity
and inundate high lands mainly in costal areas. Other common reasons for flood have
close relation with many geographical and climatic conditions.

So, floods are location specific and only certain parts of the globe are flood prone.

Fig.: Flood Zoning Map of India. Source : Vulnerability Atlas of India

Problem areas of flood

Flood is seasonal, gradual and normal process for most of the well-identified flood prone
areas. Even than, every year flood causes enormous loss and damage to life and property
in these areas, probably due to lack of proper planning and preparedness. The major
problems arise due to inundation, which may disrupt the normal pattern of life for a
reasonable period. Some problems, which may arise due to inundation, are

 Isolation of affected community from rest of the country may result scarcity of
essential items for their survival.

 Communication disruption and difficulties of access and movement.

 Situation may not permit government and non-government response forces to

go for immediate rescue of flood victims and their safe shelter. In that case,
affected community may face serious problems, if they are not prepared.
 Even if the affected community gets timely support from outside agencies in
their rescue and safe shelter, security problem may arise for their unattended
assets.

 Another major problem is proper management of evacuation/relief centres.

Generally, flood victims are allowed to take shelter in nearby schools and
colleges. But, these do not have minimum basic facilities, like sanitation,

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 drinking water, lighting, sufficient space and ventilation, proper security
(mainly for women), etc. to accommodate large number of people. As a result,
many secondary health and social problems may arise. In view of these
reaosns, concerned organizations may face problems in

 Distributing relief items like, food, water, cloth etc.

 Arranging adequate sanitation facilities for all.
 Handling an epidemic like situation and extending medical care to all.
 Preventing social chaos and misdeeds.

 Damage of crop and food storage, in this case large scale relief may be required
until next crop harvest.

 Administrative and financial problems for reconstruction and rehabilitation

may lead longstanding sufferings of the flood victims.

Contingency planning for flood damage mitigation

The planning for flood damage mitigation needs,

 Zoning of flood prone areas based on historical, primary and secondary data.

 Implementation of Land Use Regulations in flood prone areas.

 Identification of problem areas and needs of the vulnerable communities, in

advance.

 Advance arrangement of essential materials in the flood prone areas, based on

assessment of problems and needs of the vulnerable communities. Basic facilities
to be installed in safe locations and these should be accessible to affected
communities during flood.

 Strong and efficient organizational network involving government line

departments, non-government organizations working in the field of disaster
management, trained volunteers from vulnerable communities, and other
concerned agencies from corporate and financial sectors.

 Training for different organizations and individuals, involved in the process of

planning and execution of plans.

 Capacity building in terms of skilled manpower, equipments and tools, finance etc.

3.3 Landslide

General characteristic of landslide

 It is a land surface related phenomenon, but depends largely on geomprphological,

geological, ecological, tectonic and climatic conditions of the localities.

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  It occurs mainly in hilly terrains.

 In general, landslide prone areas are well defined and many visible warning signs
help to give forewarning for this event. In rare cases it occurs without any warning.

 Once the process start, it occurs very fast without leaving time to save life and
property.
 In most of the cases, landslide causes blockade to other physical elements and
secondary disruptions.

 Landslide combines with heavy rain generally lead to flood hazard.

Fig.: Landslide in a hill nearby Guwahati city

Photo courtesy: telegraphindia.com

Causes of landslide

Landslide is the sudden failure of a slope due to slumping, falling or sliding of landmass.

The pre condition for a landslide is slope and the triggering forces for a landslide may be

 Precipitation and tectonic activities like earthquake.

 Change in vegetation cover around the slope.
 Construction activities like road, buildings etc. on sloping ground.
 Liquid disposal by means of sanitary and sewers.
 Excavation and mining.

These above mentioned conditions may lead a landslide in the form of

 Freefalling, bounding, or rolling of a big landmass detached from a steep slope.

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  Rotation and toppling of a unit landmass or rock system over a slope.

 Sliding of a landmass in the slope.

 Mudflow

The probable factors involved in the process of landslide justify the above mentioned
characteristics of landslide.

Warning signs for a landslide

Few visible signs in and around the slope may be appeared before a landslide in the
surrounding areas. These are
 Appearance of new water spring or saturated ground near the slope.
 Appearance of cracks or bulges (lumps) in the ground, street pavements or
sidewalks.
 Disturbance in foundations, tilting of ancillary structure from main house; crack in
the floors; broken water lines and other underground utilities.
 Tilting of retaining wall, poles or trees slowly but continuously.
 Sudden decrease of water level in the streams inspite of regular rainfall.
 Visible disorder in door and window frames.

Problem areas of landslide

A sizable landslide in a locality may create severe damage and disruption locally or in
distant areas. A landslide may cause following problems

 Damage to buildings and other infrastructures, in and around the slope, resulting
large-scale loss and damage to life and property of the locality. Communication
disruption and other adverse conditions of the locality may create difficulties in
rescue operation.

 There is every possibility of road blockade. This may lead communication

disruption, isolation of different places and communities from rest of the country,
scarcity of essential items etc.

 A heavy mudflow from hilly area during monsoon season may cause disruption in
the foothill regions.

 A landslide may also block a river or stream resulting artificial lake. This may
enhance the risk of flash flood in the downstream areas.

Contingency planning for damage mitigation

The planning for landslide damage mitigation must include

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  Proper zoning of landslide prone areas.
 Imposition strict regulations to stop avoidable and unauthorized developmental
activities in landslide prone hilly slopes.
 Awareness of people about the risk of landslide and its impact.
 Imposition of penalty and exclusion from government support, for unauthorized
dwellers in landslide prone hilly areas.
 Relocation plan for the communities staying in the hilly landslide prone areas from
generations.
 Discouraging people from destruction of forest and vegetation in hilly areas.
 Insurance for unavoidable infrastructures at landslide risk.
 Proper structural protection measures (mainly stabilization of slope) for
unavoidable important infrastructures in hilly landslide prone areas, like roads,
bridges, electricity and telecommunication facilities, etc.
 Capacity building of the concerned organizations for speedy recovery of the
normal situation in case of communication disruption.

3.4 Lightning

Lightning is the flow of electrical current between earth and storm clouds in the
atmosphere. This happens due to polarity of positive and negative charges build up in the
atmosphere during a storm.

The basic characteristics of lightning are

 It generates 35,000 to 40,000 amperes current in the atmosphere and travels

towards earth. The lightning induced current can travel as far as 40 miles.
 Lightning can generate enormous amount of heat, as high as 50,000 degrees
Celsius.
 It falls somewhere on the earth in every second.
 It can strike more than once in the same area.

The lightning can create following problems

 The lightning has the potential to damage all kinds of electrical and electronics
installations within a fraction of second.

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  It may cause damage to all living elements.
 Lightning may trigger fire and lead total property loss.

Planning for damage mitigation

 Installation of lightning protection systems in all building should be made

mandatory. This will certainly mitigate the magnitude of damage of property under
the impact of lightning every year.

 Education and awareness of people about other indoor and outdoor safety measures
for lightning.

3.5 Tropical Cyclone

Generally, warm tropical moisture bearing clouds developed in open ocean or sea causes
cyclone. This allows the atmosphere to develop low-pressure zone and violent thunder
storms.

The general characteristics of tropical cyclone are

 It is an atmospheric and climatic phenomenon. By observing meteorological data,

it is possible to forecast the occurrence of cyclone in a particular location well
ahead of time.
 The process of cyclone in an area develops gradually and does not strike a system
suddenly.
 The destructive wind force and violent thunder storm result wide spread
destruction and flooding in coastal areas.

Fig.: Orissa cyclone damage in the year 1999

Photo source : members.tripod.com

The major problem areas for cyclone are

 Difficulties in rescue operation during cyclone due to high wind and storm.
 Everything in the surface of the earth, physical or living elements, may be
damaged under the impact of strong cyclone.

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  Large-scale debris may cause difficulties for post cyclone rescue and recovery
operations.
 All structures and establishments may collapse in case of a cyclone. Therefore,
problems may arise in rescue and safe shelter of the victims. The response forces
may also face problems in distributing relief material and extending medical
support to the victims timely.
 Wide spread destruction of trees and crops may lead long standing secondary
problems.

Contingency plan for damage mitigation should include

 Development of effective warning mechanism in all cyclone prone areas.

 Construction of high wind resistant structures in cyclone prone areas.
 Development of cyclone barriers.
 Proper rescue, relief and rehabilitation plans.
 Preparedness, public education and awareness for damage mitigation etc.

Like this, we can study the characteristics and problem areas of different hazards. It is
essential to understand the nature and problem areas of the hazard, to which a particular
location is exposed, prior to formulation of damage mitigation plan for this area.

3.6 Drought

Drought is an important and dominant natural hazard that causes enormous disruption to
life support systems and heavy economic loss. Drought affects largest population in Asia.

Drought is basically a condition of abnormal dry weather, which results serious

hydrological imbalance and has negative consequences on different factors.

The general characteristics of drought are

 It is a hydro-meteorological hazard.
 Exposure time of drought is very long.
 Speed of onset is long or may stand for whole year depending on the pattern of
rainfall.
 Forewarning is long.
 All locations on the globe are not drought prone.

Causes of drought

 Absence of rainfall for long period of time

 Changes in timing, frequency and intensity of rainfall.
 Environmental degradation.
 Wrong land use practice, settlement pattern, and farm management.
 Poor water management and water wastage.
 Water diversion by inter-basin transfer.
 Big dams in upper catchment area.
 Poor water storage facilities.

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  Poor recharge of aquifers and overexploitation of ground water.
 Pollution.
 Siltation in water reservoirs.
 Human activities like deforestation, environmental modification, misuse of
wetland etc.

Problem areas

 Shortage of surface and ground water.

 Enormous negative impact on agricultural production and damage to standing
crops.
 Scarcity of food, that may cause malnutrition and famine like situation.
 Migration of population.
 National economic loss.
 Social chaos and civil unrest.
 Epidemic.
 Administrative problems in providing relief for long time.
 Rehabilitation.

Drought management

 Close monitoring on changing rainfall pattern and emerging threat of drought for
early warning and preparedness.
 Planning for relocation of effected population or providing long time relief.
 Planning for alternative agriculture.
 Proper land use planning and farm management.
 Proper policy for water management and distribution.
 Improvement of water and crop storage facilities.
 Aforestation and wet land management etc.

4. Damage characteristics of different natural hazards

In advance, we can assess the probability, nature and magnitude of damage to a system
under the influence of a specific hazard, by studying past hazard specific damage
characteristics. `

Most of the natural hazards cause

 Damage to physical and living elements on the surface of the earth.

 Injury to people, epidemic, other medical problems.
 Damage to crop, forest etc.
 Disruption in normal pattern of life and essential services.
 Social and psychological problems; stress; trauma etc.
 Economic problems.
 Disruption in government functioning.
 Many secondary affects in the fields of medical, financial, social, administrative,
infrastructure etc.

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Question is that, whether this much information is sufficient for damage mitigation
planning?

In fact, nature and magnitude of damage in an area primarily depend on hazards

characteristics as well as nature of their exposures i.e., local environment of the
system/area. Hence, we need to have hazard specific damage assessment for damage
mitigation planning.

For example,

For an earthquake, ground vibration is mainly responsible for sudden damage to buildings
and infrastructures, which may lead a series of secondary problems. The damage and
disruption may spread over wide area, depending on magnitude of earthquake. The nature
of damage is also related to developmental pattern of the locality.

In this case, the design parameters based on earthquake resistant building codes play
vital role in damage mitigation planning.

For flood, inundation is the major factor to cause damage to crops, household assets,
roads, bridges etc. It can lead a series of secondary problems like, epidemic, food scarcity,
social and financial problems etc. Generally, flood damage remains confined to certain
parts of a locality.

So, flood zoning, land use regulation, flood preparedness, alternative adjustment process
etc. may be the major components of flood damage mitigation planning.

Like these, a cyclone may cause wide spread damage and disruption to all physical and
living elements of an area under the influence of high wind and storm. It may lead floods
in low lying areas also.

A fire may destroy its physical exposures completely. But, it may not spread over wide
area. The damage mitigation planning for fire largely depends on nature of exposures.

Moreover, one natural hazard may create another hazard and subsequently a series of
secondary loss and damages to a system.

For example,

An earthquake may lead landslide, fire and flood hazards.

A flood may lead bank line erosion.
Landslide may cause flashflood and mudflow.
Cyclone may result flood.

5. Hazard assessment

We have already discussed in detail about different types of hazards and their
characteristics.

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Now it is clear that, hazard is the first parameter of risk of a system. For proper risk
assessment and risk reduction planning, we need genuine hazard assessment.

The hazard assessment is essential to understand

 The types of hazards, to which an area is exposed.

 Nature and behaviour of hazards.
 Area likely to be affected by the hazard.
 Its impact on the system including damage pattern and magnitude of damage.
 Time of occurrence and duration etc.

The hazard assessment process involves

 Hazard mapping to determine hazard prone areas and types of hazards.

 Historical profile to understand hazard specific damage characteristics.
 Seasonal calendar to understand time of occurance of hazards, their impact on
community and needs of the community.

To do so, we need to

 Collect primary and secondary data.

 Analyze the data to understand nature and impact of hazards.

The sophisticated tools available for hazard assessment

 Arial photograph and satellite imagery to get information about landscape.

 GIS and remote sensing based analysis to store and present spatial data and
information in digital format.

Recommended books and references

1. Alexander, D., Natural Disasters, Published by ULC press Ltd, London, 1993 (PP
10, 42, 316, 525)
2. Carter, W. N., Disaster Management: A Disaster Management Handbook,
Published by Asian Development Bank, 1991
3. Gupta, K. M., M. Deshmukh and I. V. Suresh, Environmental Risk Assessment and
Mitigation Analysis: policy Approach to Natural Disaster Reduction, Published by
NDM Cell, Visva Bharati, Santiniketan, 1999 (pp 153)
4. Study material: Fourth International Course on CBDM, ADPC, 2000 (Module-3,
pp 47,49)

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 ANNEXURE

Hazard assessment is essential to study the impact ratings of different hazards to our
system for determining hazard specific disaster risk of our system.

To determine the impact factors of probable hazards, we have to study certain

parameters of hazard. For example,
Parameters of
Earthquake Flood Landslide
hazards
Type Hydro-
Geo-physical Land surface related
(based on origin) meteorological
Ground vibration Mass movement
Inundation
Damaging force (relevant to seismic (volume of
(Level of flood)
energy) landmass)
Coastal areas / low-
Close to plate
lying areas close to
Areas likely to be boundaries (mainly Hill areas having
rivers having high
exposed convergent and steep slopes
rainfall in catchment
share boundaries)
areas.
Has many warning Has many warning
Warning signs No visible signs
signs signs
 Long for
Length of seasonal flood
Nil Long / short
forewarning  Short for flash
flood
 Slow for
seasonal flood
Speed of onset Fast Fast (once it started)
 Fast for flash
flood
 Long for
seasonal flood
Response time Very short Long / short
 Short for flash
flood
 Long for high
magnitude
Exposure time earthquakes Long / short Long / short
 Short for small
earthquakes
Frequency Random Mostly seasonal Mostly seasonal
Location specific (in
Location specific (in
terms of total energy Location specific (in
Magnitude terms of volume of
released due to terms of water level)
landmass)
rupture in the crust)
Fault lines / Tsunami
Secondary hazards /
/ Landslide / Flood / Erosion Flood
threats
Fire

20
By studying all these parameters, we can determine impact factors of probable hazards, to
which our system is exposed. Magnitude of hazards to be assumed based on level of
damaging forces.

We can assume a numerical scale (preferably 0 to 4) - very low/nil (0); low (1);
medium (2); high (3); and very high (4). Taking average value of all the
parameters, we can determine the impact factors of different hazards.

Suppose a location is prone to earthquake, flood and landslide. Depending on geological,

geographical, climatic and other factors we can determine the grade points for impact of
hazards
Eg.,
Parameters of Impact of hazards
Hazard Earthquake Flood Landslide
Areas likely to be
4 (entire area) 3 (70%) 1 (10%)
exposed
Warning signs 4 2 1
Length of
4 2 1
forewarning
Speed of onset 4 2 4
Response time 4 2 2
Exposure time 4 3 3
Frequency 4 3 2
Magnitude 4 3 2
Secondary hazards /
4 3 2
threats
Impact factor 36/9 = 4 (very high) 23/9 = 2.6 (high) 18/9 = 2 (medium)

21
Other important references

Magnitude of earthquake
Magnitude implies size of an earthquake or total amount of energy released during an
earthquake. It is measured in Richter scale (ML), defined by C. E. Richter in 1935. In this
scale for increase of one step (1 to 2 magnitude), seismic energy (on an average) increased
by 32 times.

Another unit of magnitude, generally used by the seismologists, is Moment Magnitude

Scale (MW or M), introduced in 1979 by Tom Hanks and Hiroo Kanamori as a successor
to the Richter scale. This scale derives energy released during the process of rupture in the
crust from size of the rupture and displacement of rock system.

Mw = 2/3 log M0 - 10:7

Where Mw is the moment magnitude and M0 is the seismic moment

Mo = DAµ
Where D is the average displacement over the entire fault surface, A is the area of the fault
surface, and µ is the average shear rigidity of the faulted rocks. The value of D is
estimated from observed surface displacements or from displacements on the fault plane
reconstructed from instrumental or geodetic modeling. A is derived from the length
multiplied by the estimated depth of the ruptured fault plane, as revealed by surface
rupture, aftershock patterns, or geodetic data.

(Source: http://booksite.elsevier.com/9780123735768/casestudies/01~Appendix_1.pdf)

Intensity of Earthquake
Intensity indicates the extent of damage or ground motion at a particular place. It is
measured in Modified Mercalli Intensity (MMI) scale (I to XII).

Another intensity scale is Medvedev–Sponheuer–Karnik (MSK) scale, similar to

the Modified Mercalli (MM) scale, widely used in USA, India and other European
countries. This is a macroseismic intensity scale used to evaluate the severity of ground
shaking on the basis of observed effects in an area of the earthquake occurrence.

22
 The MSK scale has 12 intensity degrees

Not felt, registered only by seismographs. No effect on objects. No

I. Not perceptible
damage to buildings.
Felt only by individuals at rest. No effect on objects. No damage to
II. Hardly perceptible
buildings.
Felt indoors by a few. Hanging objects swing slightly. No damage
III. Weak
to buildings.
Felt indoors by many and felt outdoors only by very few. A few
people are awakened. Moderate vibration. Observers feel a slight
IV. Largely observed trembling or swaying of the building, room, bed, chair etc. China,
glasses, windows and doors rattle. Hanging objects swing. Light
furniture shakes visibly in a few cases. No damage to buildings.
Felt indoors by most, outdoors by few. A few people are frightened
and run outdoors. Many sleeping people awake. Observers feel a
strong shaking or rocking of the whole building, room or furniture.
Hanging objects swing considerably. China and glasses clatter
V. Fairly strong
together. Doors and windows swing open or shut. In a few cases
window panes break. Liquids oscillate and may spill from fully
filled containers. Animals indoors may become uneasy. Slight
damage to a few poorly constructed buildings.
Felt by most indoors and by many outdoors. A few persons lose
their balance. Many people are frightened and run outdoors. Small
VI. Strong objects may fall and furniture may be shifted. Dishes and glassware
may break. Farm animals may be frightened. Visible damage to
masonry structures, cracks in plaster. Isolated cracks on the ground.
Most people are frightened and try to run outdoors. Furniture is
shifted and may be overturned. Objects fall from shelves. Water
VII. Very strong
splashes from containers. Serious damage to older buildings,
masonry chimneys collapse. Small landslides.
Many people find it difficult to stand, even outdoors. Furniture may
be overturned. Waves may be seen on very soft ground. Older
VIII. Damaging
structures partially collapse or sustain considerable damage. Large
cracks and fissures opening up, rockfalls.
General panic. People may be forcibly thrown to the ground. Waves
are seen on soft ground. Substandard structures collapse.
IX. Destructive
Substantial damage to well-constructed structures. Underground
pipelines ruptured. Ground fracturing, widespread landslides.
Masonry buildings destroyed, infrastructure crippled. Massive
X. Devastating landslides. Water bodies may be overtopped, causing flooding of
the surrounding areas and formation of new water bodies.
Most buildings and structures collapse. Widespread ground
XI. Catastrophic
disturbances, tsunamis.

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 All surface and underground structures completely destroyed.
XII. Very catastrophic
Landscape generally changed, rivers change paths, tsunamis.
Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Medvedev%E2%80%93Sponheuer
%E2%80%93Karnik_scale

Cyclonic storm
5. Tropical Cyclone Intensity Scale

Category Sustained winds

(3-min average)

>120 kt
Super Cyclonic Storm
>222 km/h
Very Severe 64–119 kt
Cyclonic Storm 118–221 km/h
Severe Cyclonic 48–63 kt
Storm 88–117 km/h
34–47 kt
Cyclonic Storm
62–87 km/h
28–33 kt
Deep Depression
52–61 km/h

Depression

Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tropical_cyclone_scales
(India Meteorological Department)

Electromagnetic spectrum

Light comparison[4]

Name Wavelength Frequency (Hz) Photon Energy (eV)

Gamma ray less than 0.01 nm more than 30 EHz 124 keV – 300+ GeV

X-Ray 0.01 nm – 10 nm 30 EHz – 30 PHz 124 eV – 124 keV

Ultraviolet 10 nm – 380 nm 30 PHz – 790 THz 3.3 eV – 124 eV

Visible 380 nm–700 nm 790 THz – 430 THz 1.7 eV – 3.3 eV

Infrared 700 nm – 1 mm 430 THz – 300 GHz 1.24 meV – 1.7 eV

Microwave 1 mm – 1 meter 300 GHz – 300 MHz 1.24 µeV – 1.24 meV

Radio 1 mm – 100,000 km 300 GHz – 3 Hz 12.4 feV – 1.24 meV

Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Infrared
Visible spectrum
Frequency Wavelength
Color

violet 668–789 THz 380–450 nm

blue 606–668 THz 450–495 nm

green 526–606 THz 495–570 nm

yellow 508–526 THz 570–590 nm

24
 orange 484–508 THz 590–620 nm

red 400–484 THz 620–750 nm

Risk analysis involves hazard & vulnerable analysis

25