GSLV failures fuel disappointment and anxiety

Can ISRO meet its schedule of Chandrayaan-2 and human space flight programmes?

GSLV mission on December 25 failed because of “a very, very trivial issue”

ISRO hardpressed for transponders to cater for India's telecom, television requirements

CHENNAI: While disappointment haunts the Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO) about the two successive failures of the
Geo-synchronous Satellite Launch Vehicle (GSLV) missions, there is fear whether the failures will affect the schedule of ISRO's
Chandrayaan-2 and the human space flight programmes.

The fear is fuelled by the fact that it is GSLV-Mark II with an indigenous cryogenic engine that will put Chandrayaan-2 in orbit in
2013-14. The upgraded GSLV-Mark III, which is under development, will carry two Indians into space in low earth orbit around
2016. Besides, ISRO is hard-pressed for transponders to cater to India's booming telecommunication, telecasting and radio
broadcasting requirements.

While the GSLV-F06, with the GSAT-5P on board failed on December 25, 2010, the GSLV-D3, with indigenous cryogenic
engine, failed on April 15, 2010. Including these two failures, four out of a total of seven GSLV missions have failed since 2001.
The GSLV is a three-stage vehicle. The first stage uses solid propellants with four strap-on booster motors. The second
stage uses liquid propellants. The third topmost stage uses cryogenic propellants. The GSLV is 51 metres long.

There is disappointment among ISRO's rocket technologists that the GSLV mission on December 25 failed because of “a very, very
trivial issue.” They said it failed because the signal from the equipment bay, which houses the electronic brain of the
vehicle and is housed atop the rocket, to control the vehicle, did not reach the first stage. A bunch of wires, running to
more than 45 metres, convey these signals from the equipment bay and the wires terminate in the three stages of the vehicle.
Since these wires are so long, they are connected by devices called connectors, which are akin to plugs and sockets. It is these
connectors that hold these wires in place.

An authoritative ISRO rocket technologist said four such connectors came loose or were prised open because of “some disturbance”
in the flight and so the wires, which convey the signal for controlling the rocket, lost their continuity. “If some connectors open up,
the wires will not have continuity. It is a very, very trivial issue. So the command for controlling the rocket from the equipment bay
did not reach the first stage. An uncontrolled rocket will fail. That is what happened. We are in the investigation mode,” he said.

“Simple problem”

Another top rocket engineer also said the connectors coming loose was “a simple problem that did the mission in” and that the
rocket's design was basically sound.

The previous GSLV mission in April 2010 failed because of the malfunctioning of the fuel booster turbo pump in the
indigenous cryogenic stage.

While the Polar Satellite Launch Vehicle (PSLV-XL), which is much smaller than the GSLV-Mark II, put Chandrayaan-1 in orbit in
October 2008, ISRO needs a GSLV to put Chandrayaan-2 in orbit because Chandrayaan-2 is much heavier. It will have a lander and
a rover. The rover will drive about on the lunar soil, pick up samples with a robotic arm and do in situ analysis.

“Not a major setback”

Informed ISRO rocket engineers are, however, confident that the schedules can be met. The Chandrayaan-2 mission is more than
three years away and a series of ground tests of the indigenous cryogenic engine can be done at Mahendragiri in Tamil Nadu to re-
qualify the engine. “You are talking of a programme which is three years away. The schedule can be met. Besides, this particular
issue [of connectors snapping] is not a major setback,” an ISRO engineer explained. (The latest GSLV mission carried a Russian
cryogenic engine).

The GSLV-Mark III, which will put two Indian astronauts in space, should be man-rated vehicles. That is, they should be reliable
enough to carry humans into space. If the mission carrying the humans were to fail, the prestige of the nation would be at stake,
ISRO engineers said.
What worries ISRO is that it is hard-pressed for transponders to meet the booming requirements of India in the telecommunication,
television, radio broadcasting and banking services sectors. The failures of the December 25 and the April 15 GSLV missions to put
the GSAT-5P and the GSAT-4 in orbit have aggravated the situation.

ISRO Chairman K. Radhakrishnan told journalists at Sriharikota on December 25 that a series of GSATs would be put in orbit in
2011 and 2012, which would meet the country's requirements. Besides, transponders from foreign satellites could be leased.

REDD-plus a new mantra, despite divisions

Meena Menon
‘It is geared to achieve broader human development goals'

Faces opposition from various indigenous people's networks and rights groups

“We are protesting this detrimental investment with a clear market orientation”

MUMBAI: Sharp divisions have emerged over the forestry agreement at Cancun which faces opposition from various indigenous
people's networks around the world and forest rights campaigners in India. Ironically, projects on Reducing Emissions from
Deforestation and Forest Degradation plus (REDD-plus) face opposition in Mexico itself.

Some groups of indigenous people in Oaxaca are set to file a case against the Mexican government for forcibly extending the REDD
project for another 30 years, said Silvia Ribeiro, Latin America director of ETC (Action Group on Erosion, Technology and
Concentration). People who had accepted the Environmental Services Programme (ESP) in Mexico, part of the REDD projects, were
slowly finding out that while ownership of land was preserved with them, they lost control over it. Some years ago, communities in
Oaxaca wanted to cancel their agreement with the government, but they discovered that it was a priority area for the ESP. REDD
was implicitly a market mechanism, said Ms. Ribeiro. “We need to recognise that the people who depend on forests are preventing
a catastrophe.”

Shankar Gopalakrishnan from the Campaign for Survival and Dignity, India, said REDD threatened the rights of indigenous people
and forest dwellers, and it could exacerbate conflict. It could become a way of locking down forests by the government and private
interests. In the jungles of Ecuador, where REDD was being touted as a saviour, people protested as it violated their collective
rights.

Marlon Santi, president of the Confederation of Indigenous Nationalities of Ecuador said: “For us, REDD is against Mother Earth.
REDD cannot change anything. The North has a duty to us and it is an environmental and social debt. They cannot use forests as a
commodity to have carbon offsets.” The ESP took away the traditional rights from people and they could not use the forest.

Tom B.K. Goldtooth, executive director of the Indigenous Environmental Network, says there is no way to stop REDD from dividing
forest communities by luring them with money. “We are protesting this detrimental investment with a clear market orientation.”
However, REDD-plus is becoming the new mantra for sustainable development. Geared to achieve broader human development
goals, the programme's intent is manifold, according to Antonio G.M. La Vina, lead negotiator for the Philippines and Dean, Ateneo
School of Government, Manila University.

Speaking at Forest Day at Cancun organised by the Center for International Forestry Research, he said REDD-plus now
encompassed human rights and broader governance objectives and policy reforms, strengthening it from the initial aim of climate
mitigation strategy. To make it attractive to developing countries, REDD-plus had not only development objectives but also
governance reforms that were important for the mechanism's efficiency. From being a purely market driven mechanism, REDD-plus
incorporated integrated development strategies, he said.

Mexico too seems keen on REDD-plus. Elias Freig-Delgado, Minister for Finance and Climate Change is clear that REDD-plus should
include a carbon price, and apart from environmental and social benefits, it should attract significant levels of investment from
abroad. REDD-plus is sending the right signal with its mix of social obligations and financial benefits for the investors.

Yemi Katerere, head of the United Nations-REDD Programme Secretariat, said REDD was operating in 29 partner countries, of
which 12 were receiving financial support. The current net contribution for REDD is $ 92 million.

Markets will enter in the scheme of things, as without them it is hard to catalyse private investment, said Leslie Durschinger of
Terra Global Capital. It would require $17 billion to $ 33 billion a year to reduce deforestation emission by 50 per cent by 2030 and
there would be a funding gap, she estimated. At present, the investment size is small but is poised for growth on the supply-side.
Standards, however, are important. The private sector needs a good robust investment in environment, and the State of California
is the first to include REDD-plus as an offset mechanism, making it the first REDD-compliant market.

Will all this brilliant economics and strategy work to save the planet, will REDD-plus deliver? As one of the participants at Forest
day, Andrew Taber said: “Hope for the best and be prepared for the worst.”

The Rainforest Foundation Norway and the Rainforest Foundation United Kingdom (FERN) maintained that threats to indigenous
peoples and natural forests remained. Major decisions on how the scheme would be funded and how both ‘safeguards' and
deforestation would be monitored remained unresolved. Importantly, the REDD agreement asked that countries receiving
compensation for protecting their forests provide information on how they respected the environmental and social safeguards,
though there was no agreement on how these reports would be made, or monitored and verified, they said.

There was a fundamental split between parties over whether to permit REDD finance generation through a carbon market, which
would allow developed countries to buy forest carbon credits through REDD rather than reducing their carbon emissions
at home, they added.

However, experts believe that if forests are not commodified, the world may lose them altogether. Dr. Markku Kanninen from
CIFOR clarified that REDD could not stop deforestation, could only reduce it and help countries do it better. The land tenure issue
varies from country to country and indigenous people who have been marginalised for centuries will not believe that a new policy
will help them. On the plus side, payments for REDD are performance based, and that is crucial.