A test for driving while intoxicated was given 100 times.
20 people tested were
actually intoxicated, and 10 people were mis-classified as intoxicated. What would
the False Positive rate be?
12.5% r
If a fire alarm malfunctions and fails to go off when there actually is a fire,
that is a:
False Negative r
Use the Binary Classification Metrics Spreadsheet Definitions to answer the
following:
If the classification incidence/test incidence is 10% for the whole population,
and the true condition incidence is 12% for the whole population, the True
Positive rate:
cannot be 100% r
Use the Cancer Diagnosis Spreadsheet to answer Questions 4 to 6.
Cancer [Link]
Keep the cost per False Positive test set at $500. Use MS Solver to determine the
maximum cost per False Negative test that permits an average cost per test of $100.
$17,082 x
$12,262 r
Assume a cost of $15,000 per False Negative (FN) and $100 per False Positive (FP).
What is the minimum average cost per test?
$1.00 x
$259,800 x
$16,551 x
If, instead of assuming a cost $15,000 per FN and $100 per FP, the costs are
assumed to be $7,500 per FN and $50 per FP, what changes?
The minimum cost threshold of 16,551.930 x
The minimum Cost per Test r
Use logic and the definition in the Binary Performance Metrics Spreadsheet to
answer the following question.
Binary Performance [Link]
In general, increasing the cost per FN while keeping the cost per FP constant will
cause the cost-minimizing threshold score to:
Decrease r
Make a copy of the Bombers and Seagulls Spreadsheet to answer questions 8-10.
Bombers and [Link]
Modify the spreadsheet data so that there are 4 bombers instead of 3, and 16
seagulls instead of 17, by changing the actual condition for the radar score of 66
from a 0 to a 1 in cell D43.
What is the new Area Under the Curve:
0.75 r
0.72 x
0.78 x
Assuming the costs for classification errors are 5 million pounds per FN and 4
million pounds per FP, how much does changing the value at Cell D43 from 0 to 1
change the minimum cost per event?
Increases by 5 million pounds. x
Unknown x
Increases by 250,000 pounds r
Change the cost per FN to 50 million pounds. How does changing the data in cell D43
from a 0 to a 1 change the cost-minimizing threshold?
Decreases it from 75 to 70 x
Decreases it from 75 to 62 x
Decreases it from 75 to 66. r
Use the Binary Performance Metrics Spreadsheet definitions to answer the following
question.
Binary Performance [Link]
A population tested for driving while intoxicated has a Condition incidence of
20%. If the test has a true positive rate of 70% and a false positive rate of 10%,
what is the tests Positive Predictive Value (PPV)?
0.50 x
0.36 x
0.64 r
Use the Soldier Performance Spreadsheet to answer question 12.
Forecasting Soldier [Link]
Rank the outcomes using soldiers age as the score, with the oldest at the top. A
threshold of 24 years represents what point on the ROC Curve?
.5, .5 x
.33, .67 x
.25, .75 x
