Modeling
Modeling
5 34
4 20
2 9
3 191
1 21
T
Matrix A
22 8
56 6
43 1
MAT
Matrix A
1 2
3 2
2 4
Matrix A
1 2
3 2
2 4
Inverse of A
3.5 0.5
2.75 -0.25
-2 0
Matrix A of Coefficients
3 4
0 -33
42 3
SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.8605785258
R Square 0.740595399
Adjusted R Square 0.6807327988
Standard Error 49.4704351152
Observations 17
ANOVA
df
Regression 3
Residual 13
Total 16
Coefficients
Intercept -93.9065243878
Airplay Play Per Week(X1) 4.9534873101
Attractivenss Scale(X2) 19.3190670585
Advertising Dollars(X3) 0.0552867124
Input
Cost of house $200,000
Down Payment $20,000
Interest Rate 4.00%
Repayment years 15
Payments per year 12
Outputs
Amount borrowed $180,000
Monthly rate 0.0033333333
TRANSPOSITION OF MATRICES
Matrix A Transpose of A
98 45 22
0 15 8
55 20 98
45
MATRIX MULTIPLICATION
xA Matrix B
4 2
8 2
9 1
AB
10 23 51
18 37 93
21 48 110
Matrix Inverse
Matrix B
4 2
8 2
9 1
of A Inverse of B
-2 1.10
-1 -0.29
1 -0.06
66 16
1 77
2 12
SS MS F Significance F
90831.8474672017 30277.2824890672 12.3715875387 0.0004151729
31815.2113563277 2447.3239504868
122647.058823529
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Transpose of A
56 43
6 1
0 55
15 20
Matrix B
3 5
6 7
2 8
3 5
6 7
2 8
Inverse of B
-0.45 -0.29
0.35 -0.13
-0.03 0.19
Solution A-1Y
0.4342880891 0.434288089
-2.32232029
0.363430559
Upper 95% Lower 95.0% Upper 95.0%
17.4462099406 -205.259259 17.4462099406
8.3179967777 1.588977843 8.3179967777
32.0769262423 6.561207875 32.0769262423
0.1087841986 0.001789226 0.1087841986
Input
$59,658.89
18898.43819687
38689.49843614
59658.8878974
81783.50225734
105031.8937608
129365.1114616
154737.7042212
181098.8375649
Table of returns
Proportion of X Stand. Dev
37.50%
-0.80
-0.65
-0.50
-0.35
-0.20
-0.05
0.10
0.25
0.40
0.55
0.70
0.85
1.00
1.15
1.30
1.45
1.60
1.75
1.90
SAMSUNG
2-Jun-16 -16.97%
3-Jun-16 -9.18%
4-Jun-16 -0.25%
5-Jun-16 15.39%
6-Jun-16 5.98%
7-Jun-16 -7.36%
8-Jun-16 -24.14%
9-Jun-16 5.80%
10-Jun-16 5.48%
11-Jun-16 11.82%
12-Jun-16 -10.49%
13-Jun-16 90.91%
14-Jun-16 2.44%
15-Jun-16 5.81%
16-Jun-16 0.58%
17-Jun-16 4.96%
18-Jun-16 2.98%
19-Jun-16 8.33%
20-Jun-16 -7.32%
21-Jun-16 10.40%
22-Jun-16 0.21%
23-Jun-16 -3.58%
24-Jun-16 1.31%
25-Jun-16 -1.92%
26-Jun-16 6.53%
27-Jun-16 4.12%
28-Jun-16 -1.40%
29-Jun-16 3.59%
30-Jun-16 0.59%
CALC
Variance-covariance matrix
0.4 0.03
0.03 0.2
0.02 0
0 -0.06
Constant 0.04
E(x)
Var(x)
Sigma(x)
Calculating returns of combinations of portfolio X and p
Mean, E(rx)
Variance, x2
Covariance (x,y)
Correlation, xy
Table of returns
Mean
11.13%
1200.00%
1000.00%
800.00%
Mean Return
600.00%
400.00%
200.00%
0.00%
0.00% 200.00%
1.63%
0.0093
9.67%
19.52%
11.22%
33.49%
-10.92% -20.58%
-8.72% -12.79%
-1.91% -3.86%
18.78% 11.78%
8.96% 2.38%
7.85% -10.97%
-5.69% -27.75%
2.88% 2.19%
1.21% 1.87%
-5.01% 8.21%
-8.44% -14.10%
40.23% 87.30%
-3.79% -1.16%
2.68% 2.20%
-0.40% -3.03%
-0.46% 1.36%
-4.50% -0.62%
2.08% 4.72%
-7.99% -10.93%
-0.10% 6.80%
0.61% -3.40%
-0.55% -7.19%
2.72% -2.30%
2.96% -5.53%
4.72% 2.93%
4.75% 0.51%
-7.14% -5.00%
10.49% -0.02%
1.87% -3.01%
covariance
correlation
DEVIATION OF A PORTFOLIO
SAMSUNG SYMPHONY
4.03% 0.11%
0.0402 0.0000
20.06% 0.28%
0.0151
2.62%
0.0184
13.57%
% 1000.00% 1200.00%
-12.55% 2.5829%
-10.35% 1.3232%
-3.53% 0.1362%
17.16% 2.0210%
7.33% 0.1743%
6.22% -0.6829%
-7.32% 2.0301%
1.26% 0.0276%
-0.42% -0.0078%
-6.64% -0.5449%
-10.06% 1.4190%
38.60% 33.7006%
-5.42% 0.0630%
1.06% 0.0232%
-2.03% 0.0615%
-2.09% -0.0283%
-6.13% 0.0382%
0.45% 0.0213%
-9.62% 1.0509%
-1.73% -0.1175%
-1.02% 0.0345%
-2.18% 0.1565%
1.10% -0.0252%
1.33% -0.0738%
3.09% 0.0904%
3.12% 0.0159%
-8.77% 0.4385%
8.86% -0.0016%
0.24% -0.0073%
1.5145%
0.0151447785
0.8487109874
sales growth 20%
current sales/sales 12%
current liabilities/sales 10%
net fixed assets/sales 75%
costs of goods sold/sales 40%
depreciation rate 14%
interest rate on debt 18%
interest paid on cash and marketable securities 10%
tax rate 50%
dividend payout ratio 60%
year 0
income statement
sales 1000
costs of goods sold -500
income payment on debt -32
interest earned on cash and marketable securities 6
depreciation -100
profit before tax 374
taxes -150
profit after tax 225
dividends -90
retained earnings 135
Balance Sheet
cash and marketable securities 80
current assets 150
fixed assets
at cost 1070
depreciation -300
net fixed assets 770
total assets 1000
current liabilities 80
debt 320
stock 450
accumulated retained earnings 150
total liabilities and equity 1000
1 2 3 4
1762
-881
-32
Err:522
Err:522
Err:522
Err:522
Err:522
Err:522
Err:522
Err:522
176
Err:522
Err:522
705
Err:522
1322
320
450
Err:522
Err:522
ANNUAL STOCK PRICE AND RETURN DATA FOR SIX STOCKS
Price data
Date GE MSFT JNJ K BA IBM
1991 2.36 2.68 6.78 20.37 2.34 11.79
1992 4.15 2.64 7.2 18.47 4.21 14.62
1993 4.98 3.68 10.91 19.9 4.2 15.53
1994 8.8 5.73 19.43 29.03 8.09 20.41
1995 12.51 12.64 24.44 27.59 13.93 30.78
1996 21.64 18.49 29.15 38.01 20.19 31.6
1997 30.57 43.37 38.04 34.14 23.47 30.94
1998 40.51 48.51 39.36 20.93 36.27 39.24
1999 42.42 30.26 43.8 23.52 48.13 48.78
2000 34.82 31.58 55.19 28.7 41.39 51.05
2001 22.25 23.52 52.15 32 32.81 59.63
2002 31.86 28.16 51.49 37.36 48.86 81.95
Return data
Date GE MSFT JNJ K BA IBM
1992 56.44% -1.50% 6.01% -9.79% 58.73% 21.51%
1993 18.23% 33.21% 41.56% 7.46% -0.24% 6.04%
1994 56.93% 44.28% 57.71% 37.76% 65.55% 27.33%
1995 35.18% 79.12% 22.94% -5.09% 54.34% 41.08%
1996 54.80% 38.04% 17.62% 32.04% 37.11% 2.63%
1997 34.55% 85.25% 26.62% -10.74% 15.05% -2.11%
1998 28.15% 11.20% 3.41% -48.93% 43.53% 23.76%
1999 4.61% -47.19% 10.69% 11.67% 28.29% 21.76%
2000 -19.74% 4.27% 23.11% 19.90% -15.09% 4.55%
2001 -44.78% -29.47% -5.67% 10.88% -23.23% 15.54%
2002 35.90% 18.01% -1.27% 15.49% 39.82% 31.80%
Dididend Valuation
PV of supernormal growth years
using Excel NPV
PV of normal growth years, after year 5
share value
COMPUTING THE COST OF EQUITY FOR KFC : Tax-adjusted CAPM : rE = rf (1-Tc)+ *[E(rM)-rf (1-Tc)]
KFC beta 2.2516
KFC tax rate, Tc 31.29%
Risk free rate, rf 4.93%
Expected market return, E (rm) 9.88%
KFC cost of equity, rE KFC 18.01%
COMPUTING THE COST OF EQUITY FOR KFC USING THE MARKET RISK PREMIUM E
COMPUTING THE COST OF EQUITY FOR KFC USING MARKET PRICE/EARNINGS MULTIPLE TO
EQUITY FOR KFC USING THE MARKET RISK PREMIUM E(r M) -rf
1818000000
750000000
227000000
9723000000
666000000
12236000000
12518000000
633000000
year on year growth
19.29%
24.49%
27.66%
6.71%
10.10%
77.62%
107.87%
-57.58%
10.36%
20.56%