HSL PCG CURRENCY DAILY
10 January, 2017
PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]
VIEW POINT
STRATEGY FOR THE DAY Rupee : Consolidates Near Low
The rupee yesterday weakened to near one week low against the US
EURINR JAN. FUT. : dollar, tracking the losses in the Asian currencies markets and also on
the pessimism on domestic markets following lower economic growth
BUY ARND 72.00 SL 71.75 TGT 72.35 projections last Friday. The home currency closed at 68.21 a dollar--a
level last seen on 3 January, down 0.35% from Friday's close of 67.96.
MAJOR CURRENCY The 10-year bond yield closed at 6.397%, compared to Friday's close of
6.389%.
Prev. Chinas producer price index rose at the fastest pace in more than five
Close Chg. % Chg. year could pass inflation to other countries.
Close
USDINR 68.205 67.964 0.241 0.36% The government will issue index of industrial production and consumer
DXY INDX 101.760 101.930 -0.170 -0.17% price inflation data for November and December on 12 January.
According to Bloomberg analyst estimates, IIP will be at -2.2%, while
EURUSD 1.061 1.057 0.003 0.31%
CPI will be at 3.5%. The government will also release wholesale price
GBPUSD 1.217 1.216 0.001 0.07% inflation data on 16 January.
USDJPY 115.600 116.030 -0.430 -0.37%
Dollar Sags As Trump Rally Takes A Breather
DG USDINR 68.297 68.273 0.024 0.03%
Pound steadies in early today after weekend comments from British
Prime Minister Theresa May sent it skidding to 2 month lows, while
GLOBAL INDICES the dollar wallowed as investors locked in gains. The cable added 0.07%
to 1.2171, after sinking as low as $1.2125 on Monday, its lowest since
Prev. Oct. 28. The dollar inched 0.17% lower against a basket of six major
Close Chg. % Chg. peers, to 101.76, though it remained within sight of last week's high of
Close
103.82, which was its highest level since 2002.
SGX NIFTY 8264.5 8248.0 17 0.20%
NIFTY 8236.1 8243.8 -8 -0.09% U.S. President-elect Donald Trump, who takes office on Jan. 20, is
scheduled to hold a news conference tomorrow that will be his first
SENSEX 26726.6 26759.2 -33 -0.12%
since winning the November election.
HANG-SENG 22634.5 22558.7 76 0.34%
Boston Federal Reserve President Eric Rosengren yesterday said the
NIKKEI 19448.6 19454.3 -6 -0.03% U.S. central bank to step up its pace of interest-rate increases from the
SHANGHAI 3163.5 3171.2 -8 -0.24% once-a-year pattern it has pursued since 2015, warning of inflation risks
S&P INDEX 2268.9 2277.0 -8 -0.35% if it does not. But Lockhart said he felt it was still too early to make any
DOW JONES 19887.4 19963.8 -76 -0.38% judgment about how the new administration may change the path of
the economy.
NASDAQ 5531.8 5521.1 11 0.19%
FTSE In short term, dollar rally likely to pause as major currencies are highly
7237.8 7210.1 28 0.38%
oversold. Among the major pairs, euro and yen likely to given bounce
CAC 4887.6 4909.8 -22 -0.45% while pound would remain under pressure on Brexit. In near term, dollar
DAX 11564.0 11599.0 -35 -0.30% index would find support around 99.43 while fresh up move start above
103.82.
PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]
TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
SPOT USDINR HOURLY CHART
Technical Observations
USDINR starts week on strong note taking cues from international bourses. The pair settles at 68.21 from Fridays close of 67.96,
gaining 24 paise . Broadly, the pair is in consolidating in the broad range of 67.70 to 68.40 with bias positive on higher top bottom
formation on daily scale.
Momentum oscillators on hourly entered in from overbought zone while on daily chart still heading lower with negative divergence,
giving unclear view.
The bias remains bullish till it holds the support of 67.70 while sustainable trade above 68.40 open 68.86 on higher side.
PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]
TECHNICAL LEVELS
Contracts Last Pivot S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3 View For The Day
USDINR JAN17 68.37 68.33 68.02 68.11 68.24 68.46 68.55 68.68 Long Unwinding
EURINR JAN17 72.01 72.03 71.69 71.81 71.91 72.13 72.25 72.35 Short Covering
GBPINR JAN17 83.33 83.51 81.66 82.34 82.83 84.01 84.68 85.18 Bearish
JPYINR JAN17 58.60 58.49 57.98 58.11 58.36 58.73 58.86 59.10 Short Covering
Wkly Wkly 1-Mth. 1-Mth. 52 Wk 52 Wk
Spot 5 DMA 20 DMA 50 DMA 100 DMA 200 DMA
High Low High Low High Low
USDINR 68.37 67.75 68.76 67.33 68.86 66.07 68.10 67.95 67.76 67.28 67.12
EURINR 72.12 70.93 73.35 70.42 77.49 70.42 71.42 71.19 72.26 73.43 74.30
GBPINR 84.30 83.32 86.88 82.71 100.49 80.89 83.61 83.94 84.29 84.92 89.02
JPYINR 58.72 57.71 61.38 57.25 68.11 55.73 58.19 58.02 60.21 62.66 62.96
CURRENCY MOVEMENT
Open Chg. in Chg. in
Currency Open High Low Close Chg. Volume
Interest OI Volume
SPOT USDINR 68.16 68.26 68.15 68.21 0.24 -- -- -- --
USDINR JAN. FUT. 68.20 68.42 68.20 68.37 0.26 1698103 -63380 823595 -44000
SPOT EURINR 71.67 71.97 71.67 71.81 -0.19 -- -- -- --
EURINR JAN. FUT. 72.02 72.15 71.93 72.01 -0.19 35053 -2368 35161 -28230
SPOT GBPINR 83.47 83.52 82.71 83.05 -1.00 -- -- -- --
GBPINR JAN. FUT. 84.09 84.18 83.01 83.33 -0.98 34139 9412 79452 35152
SPOT JPYINR 57.93 58.41 57.93 58.39 -0.22 -- -- -- --
JPYINR JAN. FUT. 58.34 58.62 58.24 58.60 -0.22 26530 -1300 32361 7172
PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]
ECONOMIC EVENTS RELEASED
Date Time Country Event Period Survey Actual Prior
01/09/2017 14:00 UK Halifax House Prices MoM Dec 0.30% 1.70% 0.20%
01/09/2017 15:00 EC Sentix Investor Confidence Jan 12.8 18.2 10
01/09/2017 15:30 EC Unemployment Rate Nov 9.80% 9.80% 9.80%
01/10/2017 07:00 CH CPI YoY Dec 2.20% 2.10% 2.30%
01/10/2017 07:00 CH PPI YoY Dec 4.60% 5.50% 3.30%
ECONOMIC EVENTS RELEASED
Date Time Country Event Period Survey Prior
01/10/2017 20:30 US Wholesale Inventories MoM Nov F 0.90% 0.90%
01/10/2017 20:30 US JOLTS Job Openings Nov 5517 5534
PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]
Technical Analyst: Vinay Rajani ([Link]@[Link])
Currency Analyst: Dilip Parmar([Link]@[Link])
HDFC securities Limited, I Think Techno Campus, Building - B, "Alpha", Office Floor 8, Near Kanjurmarg Station, Opp. Crompton Greaves, Kanjurmarg (East), Mumbai 400 042
HDFC securities Limited, 4th Floor, Astral Tower, Above HDFC Bank Ltd, [Link] Six Roads, Navrangpura, Ahmedabad 380009.
Phone: (079)66070168, Website: [Link] Email: [Link]@[Link]
Disclosure:
I/We, Dilip Parmar and Vinay Rajani, MBA, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my views about the subject issuer (s) or securities. I also certify that no part of our
compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in his report.
Research Analyst or his/her relative does not have any financial interest in the subject company. Also HDFC Securities Ltd. or its Associate may have beneficial ownership of 1% or more in the subject instrument at the end of
the month immediately preceding the date of publication of the Research Report.
Further Research Analyst or his relative or HDFC Securities Ltd. or its associate does not have any material conflict of interest.
Any position in Instruments NO
Disclaimer:
This report has been prepared by HDFC Securities Ltd and is meant for sole use by the recipient and not for circulation. The information and opinions contained herein have been compiled or arrived at, based upon information
obtained in good faith from sources believed to be reliable. Such information has not been independently verified and no guaranty, representation of warranty, express or implied, is made as to its accuracy, completeness or
correctness. All such information and opinions are subject to change without notice. This document is for information purposes only. Descriptions of any company or companies or their securities mentioned herein are not
intended to be complete and this document is not, and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer, to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments.
This report is not directed to, or intended for display, downloading, printing, reproducing or for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident or located in any locality, state, country or other
jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, reproduction, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation or what would subject HDFC Securities Ltd or its affiliates to any registration or licensing requirement
within such jurisdiction.
If this report is inadvertently send or has reached any individual in such country, especially, USA, the same may be ignored and brought to the attention of the sender. This document may not be reproduced, distributed or
published for any purposes without prior written approval of HDFC Securities Ltd.
Foreign currencies denominated securities, wherever mentioned, are subject to exchange rate fluctuations, which could have an adverse effect on their value or price, or the income derived from them. In addition, investors in
securities such as ADRs, the values of which are influenced by foreign currencies effectively assume currency risk.
It should not be considered to be taken as an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any security. HDFC Securities Ltd may from time to time solicit from, or perform broking, or other services for, any company mentioned in this
mail and/or its attachments.
HDFC Securities and its affiliated company(ies), their directors and employees may; (a) from time to time, have a long or short position in, and buy or sell the securities of the company(ies) mentioned herein or (b) be
engaged in any other transaction involving such securities and earn brokerage or other compensation or act as a market maker in the financial instruments of the company(ies) discussed herein or act as an advisor or
lender/borrower to such company(ies) or may have any other potential conflict of interests with respect to any recommendation and other related information and opinions.
HDFC Securities Ltd, its directors, analysts or employees do not take any responsibility, financial or otherwise, of the losses or the damages sustained due to the investments made or any action taken on basis of this report,
including but not restricted to, fluctuation in the prices of shares and bonds, changes in the currency rates, diminution in the NAVs, reduction in the dividend or income, etc.
HDFC Securities Ltd and other group companies, its directors, associates, employees may have various positions in any of the stocks, securities and financial instruments dealt in the report, or may make sell or purchase or
other deals in these securities from time to time or may deal in other securities of the companies / organizations described in this report.
HDFC Securities or its associates might have managed or co-managed public offering of securities for the subject company or might have been mandated by the subject company for any other assignment in the past twelve
months.
HDFC Securities or its associates might have received any compensation from the companies mentioned in the report during the period preceding twelve months from the date of this report for services in respect of managing
or co-managing public offerings, corporate finance, investment banking or merchant banking, brokerage services or other advisory service in a merger or specific transaction in the normal course of business.
HDFC Securities or its analysts did not receive any compensation or other benefits from the companies mentioned in the report or third party in connection with preparation of the research report. Accordingly, neither HDFC
Securities nor Research Analysts have any material conflict of interest at the time of publication of this report. Compensation of our Research Analysts is not based on any specific merchant banking, investment banking or
brokerage service transactions. HDFC Securities may have issued other reports that are inconsistent with and reach different conclusion from the information presented in this report.
Research entity has not been engaged in market making activity for the subject company. Research analyst has not served as an officer, director or employee of the subject company. We have not received any
compensation/benefits from the Subject Company or third party in connection with the Research Report.
This report has been prepared by the PCG team of HDFC Securities Ltd. The views, opinions, estimates, ratings, target price, entry prices and/or other parameters mentioned in this document may or may not match or may
be contrary with those of the other Research teams (Institutional, Retail) of HDFC Securities Ltd.
"HDFC Securities Ltd. is a SEBI Registered Research Analyst having registration no. INH000002475.
PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]
