HSL PCG Currency Insight-Weekly

13 February, 2017
 WEEKLY MOVEMENT MARKET WRAP UP
Consumer Price Index and Dollar Will Drive Rupee
Currency Rupee continues its strength in the week gone with adding 43 paise to
settles at 66.88 from previous weeks 67.32.The focus will be shifted to
Currency Prev. % consumer price inflation after weaker industrial production data. This
Last Chg.
(Spot) Close Chg.
week all eyes will be on CPI, expected to come at 3.24% in January
DXY Index 100.87 99.87 1.00 1.00% month from 3.41% a month ago. WPI will be at 4.34% from 3.39% a
EURUSD 1.0634 1.0783 -0.01 -1.38% month ago.
GBPUSD 1.2446 1.2484 0.00 -0.30%
Indian Bonds set for worst week since August 2013 after RBI panel
surprisingly held interest rates and switched its monetary policy stance
USDJPY 113.50 112.61 0.89 0.79%
to neutral from accommodative on Wednesday. Indian 10 year generic
USDINR 66.8837 67.3163 -0.43 -0.64% govt. bond yield settles at 6.81 from previous weeks 6.41 rising 40 bps.
EURINR 71.2050 72.2870 -1.08 -1.50% As per the RBI bulletin, the central bank bought $643 million from spot
market during December. The gross purchase stood at $5 billion while
GBPINR 83.5210 83.9475 -0.43 -0.51%
gross sales at $4.53 billion. The bank had outstanding net forward
JPYINR 58.9500 59.4900 -0.54 -0.91% purchases of $586 million at the end of December from $2.94 billion in
DGCX USDINR 66.9478 67.2857 -0.34 -0.50% November. While it had sold net $582 million in Currency future in
December.
Technically, USDINR breached the long term moving average support f
RBI Reference Rate 200 days and momentum oscillators are placed in oversold zone. The
bias for the pair remains bearish.
Prev. %
Currency Last Chg.
Close Chg.
Dollar Posted First Weekly Gain of the Year
USDINR 66.9367 67.3825 -0.45 -0.66%

EURINR 71.3344 72.4429 -1.11 -1.53% The dollar surrendered early gains on the Friday, though it was poised to
post its first weekly advance since December, with gains of about 0.95%
GBPINR 83.7713 84.3225 -0.55 -0.65%
on the week. Weekly gains were spurred by President Trumps Thursday
JPYINR 58.8900 59.6000 -0.71 -1.19% promise of a phenomenal announcement on taxes in the next two to
three weeks, which helped to revive optimism about the prospect of fiscal
stimulus. The developments helped lift treasury yield from intra-week
GOI 10 Yr. Bond Yield selloff. US 10 year yield closed at 2.409 after dipping to 2.325,
comparing to prior week's close at 2.491. ICE Dollar was given a boost
Prev. %
Instrument Last
Close
Chg.
Chg.
and ended as the second strongest major currency, next to Sterling. The
Dollar index closed at 100.8, up from prior week's close at 99.9.
697GS2026 6.8050 6.4090 0.40 6.18%

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

 All eyes on Fed chair Janet Yellen's testimony to Congress will be a major focus this week. But Trump's tweets and any
economy-related announcements will be the things that move markets.
Dollar's near term fate will also depend on developments in treasury yields. Or at least, should be in sync with benchmark
yields to confirm underlying momentum. 10 year yield defended 55 day EMA last week and recovered. Technically, ICE dollar
index yet in consolidation with downside protected around 97 while bulls can take charge above 103.9.
WEEKAHEAD

Janet Yellen takes center stage this week,giving her the chance to provide some clearer guidance on whether the Fed is
planning to raise interest rates in March. Along with Yellens two-day testimony to Congress, next week also sees the release
of U.S. CPI data for January, meaning there is scope for a big shift in market pricing for a Fed move in March from the current
26%.
Aside from Ms Yellens remarks, investors will also digest a heavy serving of US economic data, as they get updates on
inflation, retail sales, industrial production and the housing sector.
The latest report from the US Bureau of Labour Statistics due Tuesday is expected to show that US producer prices cooled last
month. Market estimate that core producer prices, which exclude more volatile items like energy and food, slowed to a 1.1%
YoY gain, compared with a 1.6% rise in December. On a monthly basis, headline PPI is projected to remain flat.
Provisional Japanese 4Q GDP data is forecast to show the economy is expanding, but too slowly to spur inflation.
Indias CPI is forecast to continue its downward path, slowing for a sixth month. It is expected to come at 3.24% in January
month from 3.41% a month ago. The impact of demonetization effect was almost over and the businesses are back to normal
however, the prices of international commodities like oil, sugar could hit the common man while get some relief from lower
vegetable prices. After status quo in recent monetary policy by central bank scope of fall in interest in future are lowered.

WEEKLY PRICE - VOLUME - OI (PVO)

OPEN
WKLY WKLY OI VOLUME WKLY VOL.
CURRENCY PAIR HIGH LOW CLOSE INTERES
% CHG. % CHG. (VOL.) % CHG.
T (OI)
NSE INRUSD Future Feb17 67.5850 66.8650 66.9925 -0.70% 1672793 21.4% 1155562 46.8%
NSE EURINR Future Feb17 72.7100 71.2650 71.4250 -1.51% 70658 26.8% 39861 -22.9%
NSE GBPINR Future Feb17 84.4700 83.4875 83.7500 -0.58% 45987 3.2% 56503 -34.0%
NSE JPYINR Future Feb17 60.4200 58.6350 59.1000 -0.98% 24205 16.6% 31333 6.0%

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

 TECHNICAL OUTLOOK SPOT USDINR
USDINR Feb. Future CMP 66.98
DAILY CHART
Weekly
Currency
Pivot

Resistance 2 67.87
Resistance 1 67.43
Pivot 67.15
Support 1 66.71
Support 2 66.43

USDINR: Remain Short with SL

of 67.40; Support seen at 66.50

Last week, USDINR Feb Fut

breach crucial support of its
previous bottom of 67.42 on the
weekly chart.
Pair has now reached below 200
DMA. Currently 200 DMA is
placed at 67.40, which is
expected to act as a resistance
going forward.
RSI on the daily charts has
reached extremely oversold
zone, however there is no sign of
bullish reversal seen as of yet
Pair seem to have entered in to
medium term downtrend.
We advise remaining short for
the downside target of 66.60,
keeping SL at 67.40

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

 TECHNICAL OUTLOOK SPOT EURINR
EURINR Feb. Future CMP 71.38
DAILY CHART
Weekly
Currency
Pivot

Resistance 2 73.25
Resistance 1 72.34
Pivot 71.80
Support 1 70.89
Support 2 70.36

EURINR FEB FUT: CORRECTION

LIKELY TO EXTEND TOWARDS
70.60
From the high of 73.57, pair has
fallen to 71.26 odd levels in last
two weeks.
If we adjoin the previous two
bottoms on the weekly chart,
then next support for the pair is
seen at 70.56.
Pair is trading below its 20,50,
100 and 200 DMA, indicating
bearish trend on short to long
term time frame
We expect Pair to extend the
correction towards to 71.60
Stop loss in the short positions
should be kept at 72.20.
We advise remaining short with
SL of 72.20, for the target of
70.60.

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

 TECHNICAL OUTLOOK SPOT GBPINR
GBPINR Feb. Future CMP 83.74
DAILY CHART
Weekly
Currency
Pivot

Resistance 2 84.89
Resistance 1 84.32
Pivot 83.90
Support 1 83.34
Support 2 82.92

GBPINR: SELL FEB FUT BELOW

83.49, SL 84.47, TGT 82.40
Pair is currently trading below
20,50, 100 and 200 DMA,
indicating weakness in all time
frames.
Last week, Pair hit a low at 83.49,
below which fresh breakdown is
expected to come.
Support for the pair is seen at
82.40, which happened to support
provided by upward sloping trend
line on the daily charts.
Stop loss in shorts should be kept
at 84.50.
Oscillators like MACD and RSI are
showing weak trend for the pair.
We advise shorting the pair below
83.40, for the target of 82.40,
keeping SL at 84.47.

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

 TECHNICAL OUTLOOK SPOT JPYINR
JPYINR Feb. Future CMP : 59.07

Currency
Weekly DAILY CHART
Pivot

Resistance 2 61.17
Resistance 1 60.14
Pivot 59.39
Support 1 58.35
Support 2 57.60

JPYINR : Short Feb fut. at CMP,

for the Tgts of 58 and 57.40, SL
59.70
Pair has been forming multiple
tops around 60.50 levels.
On Friday, Pair broke down
below the neckline of head and
shoulder pattern on the daily
chart.
Primary trend of the pair has
been bearish and after short
term pullback, pair is all set to
resume its down trend.
RSI on the daily chart has
reached below 50, indicating
weakness in the pair.
We advise shorting JPYINR Feb
Fut at CMP for the downside
target of 58 and 57.40, keeping
SL at 59.70.

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

DOLLAR INDEX EURUSD
EURUSD: Daily Chart
DXY: Daily Chart

GBPUSD USDJPY

USDJPY: Daily Chart

GBPUSD: Daily Chart

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

USDINR FEB. MONTH OPTION DISTRIBUTION

Data Interpretation:
The highest Open interest has been shifted from 69 calls to at the money 67 put suggesting traders expecting further
downside in coming days. We have seen 68.50 and 69 call and put position reduced as spot USDINR fell below 67 mark.
Addition in 67 and 66.50 strike indicating further weakness.
The put call ratio remained at 0.95 from previous weeks 0.86 for the near month indicating further bearishness in the pair.
Looking at the above distribution, the pair could face resistance around 67.70 while downside it may take support around
66.30-66.20.

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

USDINR FUTURE OPEN INTEREST CHANGE

Data Interpretation:
USDINR February future registered fourth consecutive weekly loss to end at below psychological level of 67. In the week
gone the pair ended at 67.99 lost 0.7%. Aggregate open interest was comparatively higher than previous month same
time while near moth open interest pegged at 17 lakh contracts from previous weeks 14 lakh contracts.
The fall in price and addition in open interest and volume indicating fresh short position during the week.
Our bearish view of previous week for the pair vindicated during the week with pair closing below 67 marks.
Further, we believe the pair continue to head towards 66.30 the level seen in November. However, short covering can not
be ruled out on oversold condition. Traders are advised to wait for bounce before initiating fresh short sell.

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

INDIA FOREX RESERVE
Indian Foreign Exchange Reserves (US$ Billions)
Wkly Chg. 3-Feb 27-Jan 20-Jan 13-Jan 6-Jan 30-Dec
Total Reserves 1.59 363.15 361.56 360.78 359.84 359.15 360.29
Foreign Currency Assets 0.92 340.13 339.21 338.43 337.5 336.82 336.58
Gold 0.67 19.25 18.58 18.58 18.58 18.58 19.98
Special Drawing Rights 0.00 1.44 1.44 1.44 1.44 1.44 1.43
Position in IMF 0.00 2.32 2.32 2.32 2.31 2.31 2.3

FOREIGN FUND FLOW VS USDINR

Positive Net Foreign Equity Invt.

Negative Net Foreign Equity Invt.
Positive Net Foreign Debt Invt.
Negative Net Foreign Debt Invt.

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

MAJOR CURRENCIES
1 DAY 5 DAY 1 MONTH 3 MONTHS 6 MONTHS 1 YEAR
CURRENCY PAIR CLOSE
(% CHG.) (% CHG.) (% CHG.) (% CHG.) (% CHG.) (% CHG.)
ICE Dollar Index 100.86 0.21 0.99 (1.13) 2.10 5.45 5.19
Euro Spot 1.0635 (0.19) (1.37) 0.77 (2.37) (4.84) (5.82)
British Pound Spot 1.2448 (0.39) (0.29) 2.23 (0.85) (4.32) (14.28)
Japanese Yen Spot 113.5 (0.22) (0.78) 2.00 (5.88) (10.76) (0.13)
Indian Rupee Spot 66.8837 (0.05) 0.65 1.94 (0.38) (0.25) 1.45
Brazilian Real Spot 3.1208 0.21 0.07 2.35 8.73 0.24 25.94
Australian Dollar Spot 0.7643 0.24 (0.48) 3.73 0.39 (0.78) 7.72
South Korean Won Spot 1150.97 (0.42) (0.28) 3.79 (0.07) (4.85) 4.12
S. African Rand Spot 13.334 0.52 (0.50) 3.06 5.91 (0.39) 19.12
Canadian Dollar Spot 1.3141 0.03 (0.90) 0.69 2.50 (0.63) 5.97
Swiss Franc Spot 1.0036 (0.19) (1.06) 1.34 (1.67) (2.85) (2.98)

MAJOR COMMODITIES
1 DAY 5 DAY 1 MONTH 3 MONTHS 6 MONTHS 1 YEAR
COMMODITY CLOSE
(% CHG.) (% CHG.) (% CHG.) (% CHG.) (% CHG.) (% CHG.)
Gold 1226.06 (0.19) 0.47 3.21 (2.63) (8.95) 2.42
Silver 17.6061 (0.25) 0.53 4.87 (5.40) (12.64) 15.28
Crude Oil 53.53 1.00 (0.56) 3.54 14.19 17.13 38.03

MAJOR INDICES
1 DAY 5 DAY 1 MONTH 3 MONTHS 6 MONTHS 1 YEAR
INDEX CLOSE
(% CHG.) (% CHG.) (% CHG.) (% CHG.) (% CHG.) (% CHG.)
Nifty 50 Index 8793.6 0.17 0.60 6.09 3.14 2.55 21.87
S&p Bse Sensex Index 28334.3 0.02 0.33 5.33 2.97 2.01 19.26
Dow Jones Indus. Avg 20172.4 0.59 1.45 1.60 7.26 9.07 26.75
S&p 500 Index 2307.9 0.58 1.18 1.72 6.48 6.09 24.62
Nasdaq Composite Index 5715.2 0.58 1.40 2.94 9.72 9.81 33.42
Ftse 100 Index 7255.5 0.36 0.93 (0.27) 6.26 5.67 27.91
Cac 40 Index 4819.6 (0.14) (0.12) (1.41) 6.37 8.26 18.68
Dax Index 11663.5 0.18 0.10 0.69 9.72 9.51 29.35
Nikkei 225 19378.9 2.49 2.44 0.40 11.73 15.80 23.33
Hang Seng Index 23575.0 0.21 1.93 3.65 3.22 4.81 22.23
Shanghai Se Composite 3196.7 0.42 1.80 1.11 0.80 5.89 15.68

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

 ECONOMIC EVENTS NEXT WEEK
Date Time Country Event Period Survey Prior
02/13/2017 05:20 JN GDP SA QoQ 4Q P 0.30% 0.30%
02/13/2017 05:20 JN GDP Annualized SA QoQ 4Q P 1.10% 1.30%
02/13/2017 17:30 IN CPI YoY Jan 3.24% 3.41%
02/13/2017 02/15 IN Trade Balance Jan -$10265.0m -$10369.3m
02/14/2017 07:00 CH CPI YoY Jan 2.40% 2.10%
02/14/2017 10:00 JN Industrial Production YoY Dec F -- 3.00%
02/14/2017 12:00 IN Wholesale Prices YoY Jan 4.34% 3.39%
02/14/2017 15:00 UK CPI YoY Jan 1.90% 1.60%
02/14/2017 15:00 UK House Price Index YoY Dec 6.50% 6.70%
02/14/2017 15:30 EC Industrial Production WDA YoY Dec 1.70% 3.20%
02/14/2017 15:30 EC GDP SA YoY 4Q P 1.80% 1.80%
02/15/2017 15:00 UK Jobless Claims Change Jan 1.0k -10.1k
02/15/2017 15:00 UK ILO Unemployment Rate 3Mths Dec 4.80% 4.80%
02/15/2017 15:30 EC Trade Balance NSA Dec 28.0b 25.9b
02/15/2017 17:30 US MBA Mortgage Applications 10-Feb -- 2.30%
02/15/2017 19:00 US Empire Manufacturing Feb 7 6.5
02/15/2017 19:00 US CPI YoY Jan 2.40% 2.10%
02/15/2017 19:45 US Industrial Production MoM Jan 0.00% 0.80%
02/15/2017 19:45 US Capacity Utilization Jan 75.50% 75.50%
02/15/2017 19:45 US Manufacturing (SIC) Production Jan 0.20% 0.20%
02/15/2017 20:30 US NAHB Housing Market Index Feb 67 67
02/15/2017 20:30 US Business Inventories Dec 0.40% 0.70%
02/16/2017 19:00 US Housing Starts Jan 1230k 1226k
02/16/2017 19:00 US Building Permits Jan 1232k 1228k
02/16/2017 19:00 US Initial Jobless Claims 11-Feb 243k 234k
02/16/2017 19:00 US Continuing Claims 4-Feb -- 2078k
02/17/2017 14:30 EC ECB Current Account SA Dec -- 36.1b
02/17/2017 14:30 EC Current Account NSA Dec -- 40.5b
02/17/2017 15:30 EC Construction Output YoY Dec -- 0.00%
02/17/2017 20:30 US Leading Index Jan 0.40% 0.50%

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

KNOWLEDGE CENTRE

How Importers And Exporters Could Use A Forex Hedge To Minimise Losses

An important tool in the global financial markets, hedging is used in every asset class to mitigate losses. This can be
utilised by anyone, whether it is an individual or corporate, to overcome the negative impact of price volatility.

For the corporate in which the business activity is dependent on import and export of commodities, there is an automatic
exposure to foreign exchange and, hence, the need for hedging is higher. In the current context, since the world markets
are interlinked, they eventually affect and impact the movement of currencies.

Hedging, in any asset class, is ultimately a strategy to decrease or transfer risk in order to protect one's portfolio or
business from uncertainty in prices. In case of hedging in the foreign exchange market, a participant who is entering a
trade with the intention of protecting the existing position from an unexpected currency move, is said to have created a
forex hedge.

With the help of a forex hedge, a participant who is long in a foreign currency pair, can protect himself from the downside
risk. On the other hand, a hedger who is short on a foreign currency pair will protect his existing position from the upside
risk.

The strategy to create a hedge would depend on the following parameters: (a) risk component (b) risk tolerance and (c) to
plan and execute the strategy.

The impact of the movement in the USD-INR currencies affects both importers and exporters. In other words, an importer
will benefit when the rupee appreciates, while the exporter will gain when the rupee depreciates against the US dollar. The
cost of import reduces when the rupee gains strength, thus benefiting an importer, and at the same time creating a loss for
the exporter, since a stronger rupee will reduce the export remittances when converted to Indian rupees.

In order to reduce the risks associated with these uncertain movements in the financial markets, both importers and
exporters can utilize the derivatives platform of currency futures. By creating an equal and opposite position in the
derivatives market, a hedge can be created.

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

KNOWLEDGE CENTRE

How Hedging Works For An Importer

Suppose an oil importer wants to purchase oil worth $1,00,000 and places his order on 11 March 2016, with the delivery
date being three months away. At the time of placing the contract in the spot market, one US dollar is worth, say, Rs
66.50. However, suppose the Indian rupee depreciates to Rs 69 per dollar when the payment is due in June 2016, the
value of the payment for the importer goes up to Rs 69,00,000 rather than Rs 66,50,000.

In this case, if the importer hedges the currency risk, the losses can be reduced. Here's how the hedging strategy for the
importer would work:

Buy 100 lots of USD June 2016 contracts on 11th March 2016, assuming that June 2016 contract is trading at 67 on 11th
March 2016.
Then in June 2016, He square off 100 lots USD at 69. Profit of Rs. 200000, i.e. 1000 lot size* (69-67) *100.
Then importer makes the payment of oil purchase at 69 per dollar

Had the importer not hedged his position, he would have suffered a loss of Rs 2,50,000 (Rs 69,00,000 - Rs 66,50,000).
However, by creating a hedge position on the futures platform, his losses were reduced to Rs 50,000 due to profits in
currency hedge.

How An Exporter Can Use Hedging

A Jeweller, who is exporting gold jewellery worth US$50,000 in March 2016, wants protection against a possible
appreciation in the Indian rupee in June 2016 (spot Rs 66.50), when he receives his payment. When he is required to make
the payment in June 2016, suppose the rupee appreciates to 64. If, in this situation, he wants to lock in the exchange rate
for the above transaction, his strategy would be as follows

In March 2016, Sell 50 lots of June 2016 contract USD with a lot size of 1000,spot market @66.50. Assume that initially
the Indian rupee depreciated, but later appreciated to 64 per USD as foreseen by the exporter at end of June 2016.

Had the exporter not hedged his position, he would have suffered a loss of Rs 75,000, i.e. (50*1000*(66.50-64)), but by
creating a hedge he has made a profit of Rs 75,000 in the futures, offsetting his business loss. Hence, exposure
management is essential, given the premise of a volatile foreign exchange market. Hedging in the currency markets,
therefore, holds prime importance.

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

 Technical Research Analyst(Equity and Currency): Vinay Rajani ([email protected])
Research Analyst(Currency): Dilip Parmar ([email protected])

HDFC securities Limited, I Think Techno Campus, Building - B, "Alpha", Office Floor 8, Near Kanjurmarg Station, Opp. Crompton Greaves, Kanjurmarg (East), Mumbai 400 042
HDFC securities Limited, 4th Floor, Above HDFC Bank, Astral Tower, Nr. Mithakadi 6 Road, Navrangpura, Ahmedabad-380009, Gujarat.
Phone: (079) 66090040 /66070168, Website: www.hdfcsec.com Email: [email protected]
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Disclosure:
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PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]