Eicher Motors: Whethering The Storm
Eicher Motors: Whethering The Storm
Eicher Motors
BUY
INDUSTRY AUTOS Whethering the storm
CMP(as on 02 Feb 2017) Rs 23,650 Eicher Motors (EIM) 3QFY17 reported in-line Highlights of the quarter
numbers with consolidated APAT at Rs 4.2bn (+50% RE on a strong footing: Demand for RE bikes continues
Target Price Rs 28,603
YoY, +1% QoQ). REs operating performance to be strong with dealerships standing at 640+ vs 500 a
Nifty 8,734 surprised positively, with highest-ever margins at year ago. ~100 RE dealers are being added every year -
Sensex 28,227 31.8% (+321bps YoY, +97bps QoQ) led by gross 640 by Dec'16 end. New dealers, mainly in smaller
KEY STOCK DATA margin expansion and operating leverage. towns, are not cannibalising sales at old dealers. With
production at its peak, we believe commissioning of
Bloomberg EIM IN We believe RE is well placed to gain in the near and the third plant at Vallam Vadagal by 3QFY18 will boost
No. of Shares (mn) 27 long term. In the near term, low inventory, customer growth by end of FY18.
MCap (Rsbn) / ($ mn) 647/9,600 exposure and robust order book augurs well for the VECV- ahead of the industry: VECV outperformed the
6m avg traded value (Rsmn) 1,325 company. On the other hand, the flavour for the 2W industry on 9MFY17 basis by growing at 12.2% YoY
STOCK PERFORMANCE (%) industry in the long term is premiumisation, which is while the domestic CV industry degrew by 0.6%. The
the key focus for RE. VECV has outperformed the CV management hinted at improving market conditions
52 Week high / low Rs 26,641 / 16,617
industry over the last 9 months (+12% vs -0.6%), after demonetisation. Significant efforts are being
3M 6M 12M made towards cost reduction to deal with pressure on
thereby grabbing market share from incumbents.
Absolute (%) (4.0) 8.8 38.3 margins.
Relative (%) (6.6) 8.0 23.2 Given the strong in-line performance, we maintain Near-term outlook: Expect strong earnings momentum
SHAREHOLDING PATTERN (%)
BUY and roll-forward our SOTP-based TP to Rs 28,603 at RE and VECV given the strong demand for 2W and
(RE at 28x core Dec-18E EPS, VECV 9x EV/EBITDA on anticipation of pre-buying ahead of BS-IV norms
Promoters 50.60
Dec-18E and 1.5x BV for Eicher-Polaris). implementation in CVs.
FIs & Local MFs 3.84
FIIs 32.52 Financial Summary (Consolidated)
Public & Others 13.05 (Rs mn) 3QFY17 4QFY16 YoY (%) 2QFY17 QoQ (%) CY14 FY16 FY17E FY18E FY19E
Source : BSE Net Sales 18,348 12,843 42.9 17,549 4.6 87,382 160,046 71,672 85,769 103,036
EBITDA 5,770 3,577 61.3 5,422 6.4 11,108 27,632 22,277 27,875 34,002
PAT 4,182 2,787 50.0 4,132 1.2 6,114 15,939 16,951 21,853 27,423
Sneha Prashant
Diluted EPS (Rs) 147.1 91.0 61.6 142.9 3.0 225.6 587.1 624.3 804.9 1,010.0
[Link]@[Link]
P/E (x) 104.8 50.4 37.9 29.4 23.4
+91-22-6171-7336
EV / EBITDA (x) 56.5 22.7 27.9 22.0 17.8
Abhishek Jain RoE (%) 26.7 41.0 39.4 38.9 39.3
[Link]@[Link] Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research * FY16P is 15M ending Mar-16, earnings are annualised.
+91-22-6171-7320 Our estimates are based on Indian GAAP, not Ind AS
HDFC securities Institutional Research is also available on Bloomberg HSLB <GO>& Thomson Reuters
EICHER MOTORS : RESULTS REVIEW 3QFY17
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EICHER MOTORS : RESULTS REVIEW 3QFY17
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EICHER MOTORS : RESULTS REVIEW 3QFY17
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EICHER MOTORS : RESULTS REVIEW 3QFY17
SOTP Valuation
We increase our TP as we Stake held Valuation methodology Multiple (x) Attributable value (Rs mn) Per share (Rs)
roll forward to Dec-18E. We VECV 54.4% EV/EBIDTA on Dec-18E 9.0 44,733 1,647
Standalone (RE) 100% P/E on Dec-18E Core EPS 28.0 959 26,845
value RE at 28x on Dec-18E
Eicher Polaris JV 50% BV in CY16E 1.5 3,000 110
EPS vs 30x earlier given the
Target price (Rs) 48,692 28,603
growth moderation (~15% Source: HDFC sec Inst Research. * Note Core EPS excludes dividend from VECV
CAGR over FY17-19E vs +60%
in the past) Key Assumptions
CY14 FY16* FY17E FY18E FY19E
Volumes (in units)
RE 302,601 601,000 655,090 733,571 841,807
% YoY 69.9 58.9 9.0 12.0 14.8
REs unique positioning,
VECV 40,783 63,157 59,162 65,670 73,878
higher growth rates % YoY (1.1) 23.9 (6.3) 11.0 12.5
compared to other 2W
players, scope of margin Net ASP (Rs/vehicle)
expansion (led by higher RE 100,172 107,455 109,408 116,920 122,399
operating leverage and % YoY 4.8 (14.2) 1.8 6.9 4.7
consolidation of its vendor VECV 1,411,867 1,511,560 1,581,673 1,696,546 1,736,674
base near its 3 plants in % YoY 13.5 (14.4) 4.6 7.3 2.4
Tamil Nadu) Revenue (Rs mn)
RE 30,312 64,580 71,672 85,769 103,036
% YoY 78.0 70.4 11.0 19.7 20.1
VECV 57,580 95,466 85,929 102,252 123,065
VECVs robust volume % YoY 12.2 32.6 (10.0) 19.0 20.4
growth traction and
improving HD market share EBITDA (Rs mn)
RE 7,336 20,005 22,277 27,875 34,002
over the past few months EBITDA Margin (%) 24.2 118.2 31.1 32.5 33.0
indicate increasing VECV 3,830 6,846 4,726 7,158 8,738
acceptability of its PRO EBITDA Margin (%) 6.7 43.0 5.5 7.0 7.1
series range Source: HDFC sec Inst Research, * FY16 is 15M ending Mar-16, % YoY annualised for FY16
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EICHER MOTORS : RESULTS REVIEW 3QFY17
Peer Valuation
MCap CMP Adj EPS (Rs/sh) P/E (x) EV/EBITDA (x) RoE (%)
Reco TP
(Rs bn) (Rs/sh) FY17E FY18E FY19E FY17E FY18E FY19E FY17E FY18E FY19E FY17E FY18E FY19E
Maruti Suzuki 1,853 6,135 BUY 6,428 188.8 242.3 312.2 32.5 25.3 19.6 19.4 15.7 11.6 18.3 19.6 21.8
Tata Motors 1,151 339 BUY 573 37.7 54.8 55.5 9.0 6.2 6.1 4.9 3.9 2.2 20.1 14.8 18.4
Bajaj Auto 812 2,805 BUY 3,400 135.2 159.8 176.2 20.7 17.6 15.9 15.1 12.4 10.8 31.8 28.9 30.7
M&M 748 1,266 BUY 1,450 62.0 75.8 86.4 20.4 16.7 14.6 12.2 10.4 8.2 15.6 15.7 17.3
Hero Motocorp 644 3,227 BUY 3,443 150.2 192.6 212.6 21.5 16.8 15.2 14.0 10.7 9.3 43.1 34.9 38.8
Eicher Motors 647 23,650 BUY 28,603 589.7 743.9 937.3 40.1 31.8 25.2 28.6 22.0 17.5 35.1 36.4 34.2
Force Motors 57 4,337 BUY 4,952 136.5 193.3 256.6 31.8 22.4 16.9 20.1 13.3 10.0 12.8 10.7 14.4
SML Isuzu 18 1,259 BUY 1,432 45.6 61.2 82.0 27.6 20.6 15.3 17.0 12.7 9.6 15.9 18.2 21.3
Atul Auto 10 435 BUY 510 19.2 26.2 31.1 22.7 16.6 14.0 12.9 9.7 8.0 34.4 24.8 28.2
Source: Companies, Bloomberg, HDFC sec Inst Research
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EICHER MOTORS : RESULTS REVIEW 3QFY17
Strong QoQ Volumes, Margins Sharply Higher RE's Mix Favours C-350 With Launch Of New Variants
Volume (in '000) EBITDA Margin - RHS C-350 TB 350 Bullet Elec
RE volumes continue to Bullet 350 C-500 TB 500
200 35%
ramp-up even during tough Bullet 500 Cont GT
180
times. Classic 350s order 160
30% 100%
5% 5% 4%
6% 6% 6% 5% 5%
book stands stable at 3 140 25% 13% 13% 13% 14% 15% 16% 14% 13%
80%
months 120 20% 15% 15% 13% 13% 12% 8% 9% 7%
7%
100 60% 9% 8% 7% 7%
10% 10%
15% 10%
80
60 40%
10%
Management reiterated 40 55% 57% 57% 60% 61% 65%
51% 52%
commissioning of a new 20
5% 20%
plant by 3QFY18 and also - 0% 0%
maintained that sales
1QFY16
2QFY16
3QFY16
4QFY16
5QFY16
1QFY17
2QFY17
3QFY17
1QFY16
2QFY16
3QFY16
4QFY16
5QFY16
1QFY17
2QFY17
3QFY17
volumes would sustain at
~60,000 units as indicated
starting April17 Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research
VECVs volumes were VECV: Volumes Impacted By Liquidity Crunch VECV: Heavy Discounting Aided HD Market Share Gain
impacted by
Volumes ('000) Volume Growth (% YoY) - RHS LMD HD Buses
demonetisation. However, 40.0
16 45%
heavy discounting by the 35.0
company aided in market 30.0
14
share gains for the HD 30% 25.0
segment. Favourable
12 20.0
demand for Pro Series and
15.0
launch of a full truck range 15%
seems to have helped in 10 10.0
gaining market share in a 5.0
tough market 8 0% -
1QFY16
2QFY16
3QFY16
4QFY16
5QFY16
1QFY17
2QFY17
3QFY17
1QFY16
2QFY16
3QFY16
4QFY16
5QFY16
1QFY17
2QFY17
3QFY17
Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research Source: SIAM, HDFC sec Inst Research
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EICHER MOTORS : RESULTS REVIEW 3QFY17
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EICHER MOTORS : RESULTS REVIEW 3QFY17
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EICHER MOTORS : RESULTS REVIEW 3QFY17
RECOMMENDATION HISTORY
Date CMP Reco Target
Eicher TP 8-Feb-16 18,128 BUY 20,143
29,000
6-May-16 19,687 NEU 19,633
27,000 1-Aug-16 22,461 BUY 24,736
25,000 5-Oct-16 25,842 BUY 28,463
31-Oct-16 24,020 BUY 26,657
23,000
5-Dec-16 22,678 BUY 25,800
21,000 2-Feb-17 23,650 BUY 28,603
19,000
17,000
15,000 Rating Definitions
BUY : Where the stock is expected to deliver more than 10% returns over the next 12 month period
Dec-16
Oct-16
Aug-16
Apr-16
Nov-16
Jan-17
Feb-16
Sep-16
Feb-17
May-16
Jun-16
Jul-16
Mar-16
NEUTRAL : Where the stock is expected to deliver (-)10% to 10% returns over the next 12 month period
SELL : Where the stock is expected to deliver less than (-)10% returns over the next 12 month
d
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EICHER MOTORS : RESULTS REVIEW 3QFY17
Disclosure:
We, Sneha Prashant, MBA & Abhishek Jain, MBA authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our
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Institutional Equities
Unit No. 1602, 16th Floor, Tower A, Peninsula Business Park,
Senapati Bapat Marg, Lower Parel, Mumbai - 400 013
Board : +91-22-6171 [Link]
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