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Prediction Error in Sample Grids

This document describes a 4-point block kriging experiment with a nugget of 0, sill of 1, and range of 1.33. It provides sample point coordinates and variogram values, then uses kriging to predict a value at point (7.5, 7.5) and calculates the associated prediction variance and standard error. Graphs show how prediction error decreases with increasing grid size due to more sample points. The error is scaled based on the number of samples to compare different variogram models.

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rafael_moraes_11
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51 views5 pages

Prediction Error in Sample Grids

This document describes a 4-point block kriging experiment with a nugget of 0, sill of 1, and range of 1.33. It provides sample point coordinates and variogram values, then uses kriging to predict a value at point (7.5, 7.5) and calculates the associated prediction variance and standard error. Graphs show how prediction error decreases with increasing grid size due to more sample points. The error is scaled based on the number of samples to compare different variogram models.

Uploaded by

rafael_moraes_11
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as XLS, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd

4-point block

15 Size of grid (one edge)


0 Nugget (c0)
1 Sill (c1)
1 1/3 Range
Sample points

Y
0
15
0
15

0
0
15
15

Matrix A

12.25

Distances between sample points


0
15
0
0
0
15
0.000
15.000
15.000
15.000
0.000
21.213
15.000
21.213
0.000
21.213
15.000
15.000
Semivariances
between
sample points
0.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
0.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
0.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1
1
1

Distance between predictio


15 Sample values
15 at (X,Y)
21.213
1
15.000
2
15.000
4
0.000
5
Semivariances
between prediction
point and sample
1.000
1 Vector b
1.000
1
1.000
1
0.000
1
1
0
Predicted value at point
Prediction variance
Standard error

Error increases with nugget and sill


and decreases with range
Effect of increasing grid size on prediction error

Prediction error vs. sample grid


1.2
1

prediction error

exp(0,1,1)
exp(0,1,5)
Grid
Error
Grid
Error
0.25
0.373
0.25
0.167
0.5
0.522
0.5
0.237
1
0.713
1
0.334
2
0.92
2
0.469
3
1.019
3
0.568
4
1.069
4
0.648
5
1.093
5
0.713
6
1.106
6
0.768
7
1.112
7
0.815
8
1.115
8
0.855
9
1.117
9
0.89
10
1.117
10
0.92
15
1.118
20
1.019
20
1.118
20
1.069

0.8
0.6
0.4
Column B
0.2

Column D

0
0

9 10 11 12 13 14 15

side of grid cell

Points to be predicted
Distance between prediction point and sample
7.5 Centre of a grid cell
7.5
10.607 SQRT(2)*(side of square)
10.607
10.607
10.607
Semivariances
between prediction
point and sample
weights
1.000
0.250 equal weight
1.000
0.250
1.000
0.250
1.000
0.250
1
0.2500
LaGrange multiplier
edicted value at point
3.000
Prediction variance
1.250
Standard error
1.118

r vs. sample grid size

mn B

mn D

9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

of grid cell

400

exp(0,1,1)
Grid
0.25
0.5
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
15
20

exp(0,1,5)
Error
Grid
Error
Samples
0.373
0.25
0.167
6561
0.522
0.5
0.237
1681
0.713
1
0.334
441
0.92
2
0.469
121
1.019
3
0.568
59
1.069
4
0.648
36
1.093
5
0.713
25
1.106
6
0.768
19
1.112
7
0.815
15
1.115
8
0.855
12
1.117
9
0.89
10
1.117
10
0.92
9
1.118
20
1.019
5
1.118
20
1.069
4

exp(0,1,1) exp(0,1,5)
Scaled to
Error
1.069
1.118
0.274
0.286
0.072
0.075
0.020
0.021
0.010
0.010
0.006
0.006
0.004
0.004
0.003
0.003
0.002
0.003
0.002
0.002
0.002
0.002
0.001
0.002
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.001

Samp
1.2
1
0.8
Error

Area

0.6
0.4
0.2
0
0

1.2
1

Colum n B

Sample s ize

0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
0

8
Column B

10

12

14

Column D

16

18

20

Sample size vs. error

1.2

1.2

0.8

0.8

0.6

0.6

Error

Error

Sample size vs. error

0.4

0.4

0.2

0.2

0
0

10

12

grid spacing
Colum n B
Sample s ize (scaled to error)

14

16

18

20

10

12

grid spacing
Column D
Sample size (scaled to error)

14

16

18

20

rror

12

14

16

18

20

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