HSL PCG CURRENCY DAILY
June 10, 2016
PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]
VIEW POINT
MAJOR CURRENCY
Close
USDINR
DXY INDX
EURUSD
GBPUSD
USDJPY
DG USDINR
66.865
94.208
1.130
1.445
107.050
66.966
Prev.
Close
66.720
93.907
1.1341
1.4465
106.55
66.872
Chg.
0.145
0.301
-0.004
-0.002
0.500
0.094
% Chg.
0.22%
0.32%
-0.37%
-0.12%
0.47%
0.14%
GLOBAL INDICES
Prev.
Close
Close
SGX NIFTY
NIFTY
SENSEX
HANG-SENG
NIKKEI
SHANGHAI
S&P INDEX
DOW JONES
NASDAQ
FTSE
CAC
DAX
8213.5
8203.6
26763.5
21140.6
16542.4
2927.2
2115.5
17985.2
4958.6
6231.9
4405.6
10088.9
INSTITUTIONAL ACTIVITY
Segment
8225.0
8273.1
27020.7
21297.9
16668.4
2936.0
2119.1
18005.1
4974.6
6301.5
4448.7
10217.0
Chg.
-12
-69
-257
-157
-126
-9
-4
-20
-16
-70
-43
-128
% Chg.
-0.14%
-0.84%
-0.95%
-0.74%
-0.76%
-0.30%
-0.17%
-0.11%
-0.32%
-1.10%
-0.97%
-1.25%
(Provisional Rs. In Cr)
09-Jun-16
08-Jun-16
Jun 16
EQUITY
540.10
544.71
3727.82
DEBT
265.21
-66.38
-2409.67
PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]
Rupee closes weaker against US dollar at 66.72
Indian rupee on Thursday weakened against the US dollar after local
equity markets fell over 250 points. The fall in Asian currencies also
dampened the sentiment. The home currency closed at 66.72
against the dollar, down 0.10% from its previous close of 66.65. The
rupee opened at 66.59 and touched a high and a low of 66.55 and
66.79, respectively. So far this year, the rupee has weakened
0.85%, while foreign institutional investors (FIIs) have bought
$2.66 billion from the local equity market and sold $1.25 billion in
debt markets.
The government will release the April factory output data on 10
June. According to a Bloomberg analyst poll, the factory output will
shrink 0.6% in April, against a 0.1% rise in March. The Consumer
Price Index (CPI)-based inflation and Wholesale Price Index (WPI)based inflation data will be out on 13 June and 14
June, respectively.
Global Forex Development
EUR/USD fell sharply, erasing all of its gains from the previous
session, as both Mario Draghi and George Soros voiced concern about
the state of the euro area economy, as well as global economic
conditions overall. Over a volatile last month of trading, the euro is still
up by nearly 1% against the dollar.
Despite Thursday's considerable losses, the euro has still settled above
1.13 at the close of U.S. markets in six straight sessions.
The U.S. Dollar Index, which measures the strength of the greenback
versus a basket of six other major currencies, surged more than
0.50% to an intraday high of 94.11 before closing near session-highs.
In Japan, PPI data for May dropped 4.2% drop as expected year-on-year and rose at a 0.2% pace, faster than the 0.1% gain
expected month-on-month.
Overnight, the dollar pushed higher against the other major currencies on Thursday, pulling further away from a five-week trough after the
release of upbeat U.S. jobless claims data boosted optimism over the strength of the economy. The U.S. Department of Labor said the
number of individuals filing for initial jobless benefits in the week ending June 4 decreased by 4,000 to 264,000 from the previous weeks
total of 268,000, which was revised up from the initial read of 267,000. Street had expected jobless claims to rise by 3,000 to 270,000 last
week.
The greenback weakened earlier in the week, as markets pushed back expectations on the timing of the next rate hike by the U.S. central
bank after Fridays dismal employment report for May, which showed the slowest rate of jobs growth since September 2010.
TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
USDINR
June
future
downward journey for
consecutive days in row.
continues
the fifth
Pair has broken support of 50 days
moving average placed at 66.92.
Positional resistance for the pair is
seen at 67.86, while support for the
same seen at 66.55 (200 DMA).
RSI on the daily chart is marching
towards oversold zone
Existing trend of the pair is bullish.
However 200 DMA can play crucial role
in proving support to USDINR pair.
Shorts should be covered and Fresh
longs
can
be
initiated
above
66.95, with the SL of 66.80 in Jun
Futures.
USDINR June Future Daily Chart
Hedgers Perspective:
Importers: Importers are advised to hedge offshore liabilities in the range of 66.70-66.90
Exporters: Exporters can wait for their short term receivables and hedge in the range of 68.00 to 68.15.
PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]
TECHNICAL LEVELS
Spot
Wkly
High
Wkly
Low
1-Mth.
High
1-Mth.
Low
52 Wk
High
52 Wk
Low
5 DMA
20 DMA
50 DMA
100 DMA
200 DMA
USDINR
67.46
67.11
67.76
66.23
68.79
63.31
66.88
67.13
66.75
67.21
66.57
EURINR
75.60
74.54
77.01
74.54
77.49
68.74
75.64
75.46
75.49
75.04
73.92
GBPINR
98.84
96.80
99.21
95.60
105.28
93.34
96.89
97.57
96.36
96.38
98.13
JPYINR
61.95
60.30
62.99
60.30
62.99
51.06
62.26
61.48
61.20
60.15
57.50
CURRENCY MOVEMENT
Open
High
Low
Close
Chg.
Open
Interest
Chg.
Volume
Chg.
SPOT USDINR
66.59
66.79
66.55
66.72
0.07
--
--
--
--
USDINR JUNE FUT.
66.75
66.98
66.73
66.89
0.05
1800634
45556
1323003
223742
SPOT EURINR
76.03
76.03
75.64
75.66
-0.18
--
--
--
--
EURINR JUNE FUT.
76.23
76.27
75.89
75.90
-0.20
51279
-5001
55636
22846
SPOT GBPINR
96.59
96.81
96.38
96.51
-0.52
--
--
--
--
GBPINR JUNE FUT.
96.90
97.12
96.68
96.80
-0.60
52491
6862
80213
4308
SPOT JPYINR
62.48
62.79
62.37
62.74
0.49
--
--
--
--
JPYINR JUNE FUT.
62.55
62.91
62.49
62.74
0.34
45507
8778
35353
8642
Currency
PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]
USDINR JUNE MONTH OPTION DISTRIBUTION
CALL
OI Chg.
340
400
258
132
161
10
11
0
8
2
24
6
18
23
43
7
10
50
67
100
76
150
16
200
182
250
206
229
300
267
280
350
164
Thousands
USDINR OI DISTRIBUTION
0
66.00
66.50
67.00
67.50
CALL
68.00
68.50
69.00
Volume
IV
LTP
Strike
Price
PUT
LTP
IV
Volume
OI Chg.
-327
1952
4.43
0.98
66.00
0.0475
5.29
67179
206
3.58
0.7325
66.25
0.0825
5.28
35201
6418
95071
151607
4.32
0.545
66.50
0.16
5.6
453913
142467
3274
19251
4.79
0.405
66.75
0.2625
5.94
57854
14682
-50065
288792
5.13
0.2925
67.00
0.3975
6.13
293462
-57161
-3792
27202
5.54
0.205
67.25
0.5625
6.69
11738
-3951
49333
209314
5.79
0.145
67.50
0.7425
6.94
26880
1457
1418
11259
5.94
0.0975
67.75
0.9325
7.03
1028
-140
-3448
93652
6.44
0.07
68.00
1.1625
7.78
2673
-585
-908
3267
6.79
0.055
68.25
1.3575
7.38
281
-105
-11672
103104
6.88
0.035
68.50
1.6425
9.44
1405065
1287344
TOTAL OI
OI PUT CALL RATIO : 0.92
PUT
ECO. DATA TODAY
ECO. DATA RELEASED
Date Time
Country
06/10/2016 14:00
UK
Construction Output SA YoY
Event
06/10/2016 17:30
IN
Industrial Production YoY
06/10/2016 19:30
US
U. of Mich. Sentiment
Period Survey
Apr
Apr
Jun P
PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]
Prior
-4.80% -4.50%
Date Time
Country
06/09/2016 14:00
UK
Trade Balance
Event
Period Survey Actual
Apr
-3700 -3294
Prior
-3830
0.70%
0.10%
06/09/2016 18:00
US
Initial Jobless Claims
04-Jun
270k
264K
267k
94
94.7
06/09/2016 18:00
US
Continuing Claims
28-May
2171k
2095K
2172k
HDFC securities Limited, I Think Techno Campus, Building - B, "Alpha", Office Floor 8, Near Kanjurmarg Station, Opp. Crompton Greaves, Kanjurmarg (East), Mumbai 400 042
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Phone: (079)66070168, Website: www.hdfcsec.com Email: [email protected]
Disclosure:
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compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in his report.
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HDFC Securities or its analysts did not receive any compensation or other benefits from the companies mentioned in the report or third party in connection with preparation of the research report. Accordingly, neither HDFC
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PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]
