Cisco Visual Networking Index:

Forecast and Methodology, 20152020

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Cisco Visual Networking Index:

Forecast and Methodology, 20152020
This forecast is part of the Cisco Visual Networking Index
(Cisco VNI), an ongoing initiative to track and forecast the
impact of visual networking applications. This document
presents the details of the Cisco VNI global IP traffic forecast
and the methodology behind it. For a more analytical look
at the implications of the data presented in this paper, refer
to the companion document The Zettabyte EraTrends and
Analysis or the VNI Forecast Highlights tool.

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Cisco Visual Networking Index:

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Executive Summary
Annual global IP traffic will surpass the zettabyte (ZB; 1000 exabytes
[EB]) threshold in 2016, and will reach 2.3 ZB by 2020. Global IP traffic
will reach 1.1 ZB per year or 88.7 EB (one billion gigabytes [GB]) per
month in 2016. By 2020, global IP traffic will reach 2.3 ZB per year, or
194 EB per month.
Global IP traffic will increase nearly threefold over the next 5 years,
and will have increased nearly a hundredfold from 2005 to 2020.
Overall, IP traffic will grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of
22 percent from 2015 to 2020.

The number of devices connected to IP networks will be three times

as high as the global population in 2020. There will be 3.4 networked
devices per capita by 2020, up from 2.2 networked devices per capita in
2015. Accelerated in part by the increase in devices and the capabilities
of those devices, IP traffic per capita will reach 25 GB per capita by
2020, up from 10 GB per capita in 2015.
Broadband speeds will nearly double by 2020. By 2020, global fixed
broadband speeds will reach 47.7 Mbps, up from 24.7 Mbps in 2015.

Busy-hour Internet traffic is growing more rapidly than average Internet

traffic. Busy-hour (or the busiest 60minute period in a day) Internet
traffic increased 51 percent in 2015, compared with 29percent growth
in average traffic. Busy-hour Internet traffic will increase by a factor of
4.6 between 2015 and 2020, while average Internet traffic will
increase twofold.
Smartphone traffic will exceed PC traffic by 2020. In 2015, PCs
accounted for 53 percent of total IP traffic, but by 2020 PCs will account
for only 29 percent of traffic. Smartphones will account for 30 percent of
total IP traffic in 2020, up from 8 percent in 2015. PC-originated traffic
will grow at a CAGR of 8 percent, while TVs, tablets, smartphones, and
machine-to-machine (M2M) modules will have traffic growth rates of 17
percent, 39 percent, 58 percent, and 44 percent, respectively.
Traffic from wireless and mobile devices will account for two-thirds
of total IP traffic by 2020. By 2020, wired devices will account for 34
percent of IP traffic, while Wi-Fi and mobile devices will account for 66
percent of IP traffic. In 2015, wired devices accounted for the majority of
IP traffic at 52 percent.
Global Internet traffic in 2020 will be equivalent to 95 times the volume
of the entire global Internet in 2005. Globally, Internet traffic will reach
21 GB per capita by 2020, up from 7 GB per capita in 2015.

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The number of devices connected

to IP networks will be

3X

as high as the global population in 2020.

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It would take an individual more than

5,000,000 YEARS
to watch the amount of video that will cross global IP
networks each month in 2020.

Video Highlights
It would take an individual more than 5 million years to watch the
amount of video that will cross global IP networks each month in
2020. Every second, nearly a million minutes of video content will cross
the network by 2020.
Globally, IP video traffic will be 82 percent of all consumer Internet
traffic by 2020, up from 70 percent in 2015. Global IP video traffic
will grow threefold from 2015 to 2020, a CAGR of 26 percent.
Internet video traffic will grow fourfold from 2015 to 2020,
a CAGR of 31 percent.
Internet video surveillance traffic nearly doubled in 2015, from 272
petabytes (PB) per month at the end of 2014 to 516 PB per month in
2015. Internet video surveillance traffic will increase tenfold between
2015 and 2020. Globally, 3.9 percent of all Internet video traffic will be
due to video surveillance in 2020, up from 1.5 percent in 2015.

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Virtualreality traffic quadrupled in 2015, from 4.2 PB per month in

2014 to 17.9 PB per month in 2015. Globally, virtualreality traffic will
increase 61-fold between 2015 and 2020, a CAGR of 127 percent.
Internet video to TV grew 50 percent in 2015. Internet video to TV
will continue to grow at a rapid pace, increasing 3.6-fold by 2020.
Internet video-to-TV traffic will be 26 percent of consumer Internet
video traffic by 2020, up from 24 percent in 2015.
Consumer VoD traffic will nearly double by 2020. Ultra-high definition
(UHD) will be 20.7 percent of IP video-on-demand (VoD) traffic in
2020, up from 1.6 percent in 2015.
Contentdelivery network (CDN) traffic will carry nearly three-fourths
of all Internet video traffic by 2020. By 2020, 73 percent of all Internet
video traffic will cross CDNs, up from 61 percent in 2015.

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Mobile Highlights

Globally, mobile data traffic will increase

EIGHTFOLD

Global mobile data traffic will grow

3X

between 2015 and 2020.

as fast as fixed IP traffic from 2015 to 2020.
Mobile data traffic will grow at a CAGR of 53 percent
between 2015 and 2020, reaching 30.6 EB per
month by 2020.

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Global mobile data traffic was 5 percent of total

IP traffic in 2015, and will be 16 percent of
total IP traffic by 2020.

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IP Traffic in 2020

Western Europe

28.0

EB/MO

Central and Eastern Europe

North America

59.1

EB/MO

17.0

EB/MO

Asia Pacific

67.8
Latin America

11.6

EB/MO

EB/MO

Middle East and Africa

10.9

EB/MO

Regional Highlights
IP traffic is growing fastest in the Middle East and Africa, followed by
Asia Pacific. Traffic in the Middle East and Africa will grow at a CAGR of
41 percent between 2015 and 2020.

IP traffic in Latin America will reach 11.6 EB per month by 2020, at

a CAGR of 21 percent. Monthly Internet traffic in Latin America will
generate 2 billion DVDs worth of traffic, or 9.9 EB per month.

IP traffic in North America will reach 59.1 EB per month by 2020, at

a CAGR of 19 percent. Monthly Internet traffic in North America will
generate 11 billion DVDs worth of traffic, or 44.7 EB per month.

IP traffic in Central and Eastern Europe will reach 17.0 EB per month
by 2020, at a CAGR of 27 percent. Monthly Internet traffic in Central
and Eastern Europe will generate 4 billion DVDs worth of traffic, or 15.9
EB per month.

IP traffic in Western Europe will reach 28.0 EB per month by 2020, at

a CAGR of 20 percent. Monthly Internet traffic in Western Europe will
generate 6 billion DVDs worth of traffic, or 24.1 EB per month.
IP traffic in Asia Pacific will reach 67.8 EB per month by 2020, at a
CAGR of 22 percent. Monthly Internet traffic in Asia Pacific will generate
14 billion DVDs worth of traffic, or 56.4 EB per month.

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IP traffic in the Middle East and Africa will reach 10.9 EB per month
by 2020, at a CAGR of 27 percent. Monthly Internet traffic in the Middle
East and Africa will generate 3 billion DVDs worth of traffic, or 10.3 EB
per month.

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Global Business Highlights

Business Internet traffic will grow
at a faster pace than IP WAN.

Business IP traffic
will grow at a CAGR of

18%
from 2015 to 2020.

CAGR by 2020

6%

21%

47%

IP WAN

Fixed
business
Internet

Mobile
business
Internet

Increased adoption of advanced video

communications in the enterprise segment
will cause business IP traffic to grow by a
factor of 2 between 2015 and 2020.

Business IP traffic will grow fastest in the Middle East and Africa.
Business IP traffic in the Middle East and Africa will grow at a CAGR
of 21 percent, a faster pace than the global average of 18 percent. In
volume, Asia Pacific will have the largest amount of business IP traffic
in 2020, at 11.4 EB per month. North America will be the second at
9.1 EB per month.

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Overview of VNI Methodology

The Cisco VNI methodology has been developed based on a combination
of analyst projections, in-house estimates and forecasts, and direct data
collection. The analyst projections for broadband connections, video
subscribers, mobile connections, and Internet application adoption
come from SNL Kagan, Ovum, Informa Telecoms & Media, Infonetics,
IDC, Gartner, AMI, Verto Analytics, Ookla Speedtest.net, Strategy
Analytics, Screen Digest, DellOro Group, Synergy, comScore, Nielsen,
Maravedis, Machina Research, ACG Research, ABI Research, Media
Partners Asia, IHS, International Telecommunications Union (ITU), CTIA,

UN, telecommunications regulators, and others. Upon this foundation

are layered Ciscos own estimates for application adoption, minutes
of use, and kilobytes per minute. The adoption, usage, and bit-rate
assumptions are tied to fundamental enablers such as broadband speed
and computing speed. All usage and traffic results are then validated
using data shared with Cisco from service providers. Figure 1 shows the
forecast methodology.

Figure 1 Cisco VNI Methodology Incorporates Fundamental Enablers of Adoption and Usage

Connections
Adoption

Traffic

Usage
Bit rates and speeds

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Following is the methodology through each step for a

single application category (in this case, Internet video)
where the estimation process is illustrated.

Step 1: Number of Users

Step 2: Application Adoption

Step 3. Minutes of Use

The forecast for Internet video begins with

estimations of the number of consumer fixed
Internet users. Even such a basic measure
as consumer fixed Internet users can be
difficult to assess, because few analyst
firms segment the number of users by both
segment (consumer versus business) and
network (mobile versus fixed). The number
of consumer fixed Internet users was not
taken directly from an analyst source but was
estimated from analyst forecasts for consumer
broadband connections, data on hotspot users
from a variety of government sources, and
population forecasts by age segment. The
number of Internet video users was collected
and estimated from a variety of sources, and
the numbers were then reconciled with the
estimate of overall Internet users.

After the number of Internet video users has

been established, the number of users for
each video subsegment must be estimated. It
was assumed that all Internet video users view
short-form video in addition to other forms of
video they may watch. The number of Internet
video users who watch long-form video
(based partially on comScore Video Metrix
figures for video sites whose average viewing
time is longer than 5 minutes), live video,
ambient video, and Internet personal video
recorder (PVR) is estimated.

For each application subsegment, minutes of

use (MOU) are estimated. Multiple sources
are used to determine MOU: The Cisco Data
Meter data collection program provides a
minute-per-subscriber baseline for many
applications, the Cisco Connected Life Market
Watch survey provides MOU for markets that
are not covered by the usage program, and
comScore Video Metrix provides PC- and
mobile-based MOU for online video. Special
care is taken to help ensure that the total
number of Internet video minutes is well within
the total number of video minutes (including
television broadcast) for each user. For
example, if the average individual watches a
total of 4 hours of video content per day, the
sum of Internet, managed IP, and mobile video
hours should be a relatively small portion of
the total 4 hours.

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Step 4. Bit Rates

Step 5: Rollup

Step 6: Traffic Migration Assessment

After MOU have been estimated for each

subsegment of video, the next step is to
apply kilobytes (KB) per minute. To calculate
KB per minute, first the regional and country
average broadband speeds are estimated
for the years 2015 through 2020. For each
application category, a representative bit rate
is established, and this representative bit rate
grows at approximately the same pace as the
broadband speed. For video categories, a
7percent annual compression gain is applied
to the bit rate. Local bit rates are then
calculated based on how much the average
broadband speed in the country differs from
the global average, digital screen size in the
country, and the computing power of the
average device in the country. Combining
these factors yields bit rates that are then
applied to the MOU.

The next step in the methodology is to multiply

the bit rates, MOU, and users together to get
average PB per month.

The next step is to reconcile the Internet,

managed IP, and mobile segments of the
forecast. The portion of mobile data traffic
that has migrated from the fixed network is
subtracted from the fixed forecast, and the
amount of mobile data traffic offloaded
onto the fixed network through dual-mode
devices and femtocells is added back
to the fixed forecast.

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The sections that follow present quantitative

results of the forecast and details of the
methodology for each segment and type.

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Global IP Traffic, 20152020

Table 1 shows the top-line forecast. According to this forecast, global IP traffic in 2015 stands at
72.5 EB per month and will nearly triple by 2020 to reach 194.4 EB per month. Consumer IP traffic
will reach 162.2 EB per month and business IP traffic will surpass 32.2 EB per month by 2020.

Definitions

IP Traffic, 20152020
2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

CAGR
20152020

Fixed Internet

49,494

60,160

73,300

89,012

108,102

130,758

21%

Managed IP

19,342

22,378

25,303

28,155

30,750

33,052

11%

Mobile data

3685

6180

9931

14,934

21,708

30,564

53%

Consumer

58,539

72,320

89,306

109,371

133,521

162,209

23%

Business

13,982

16,399

19,227

22,729

27,040

32,165

18%

By Type (PB per Month)

By Segment (PB per Month)

By Geography (PB per Month)

Asia Pacific

24,827

30,147

36,957

45,357

55,523

67,850

22%

North America

24,759

30,317

36,526

43,482

50,838

59,088

19%

Western Europe

11,299

13,631

16,408

19,535

23,536

27,960

20%

Central and Eastern Europe

5205

6434

8116

10,298

13,375

17,020

27%

Latin America

4500

5491

6705

8050

9625

11,591

21%

Middle East and Africa

1930

2698

3822

5380

7663

10,865

41%

72,521

88,719

108,533

132,101

160,561

194,374

22%

Consumer Includes fixed IP traffic

generated by households, university
populations, and Internet cafs
Business Includes fixed IP WAN
or Internet traffic generated by
businesses and governments
Mobile Includes mobile data
and Internet traffic generated by
handsets, notebook cards, and
mobile broadband gateways
Internet Denotes all IP traffic that
crosses an Internet backbone
Managed IP Includes corporate IP
WAN traffic and IP transport of TV
and VoD

Total (PB per Month)

Total IP traffic
Table 1 Global IP Traffic 20152020

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Global IP Traffic, 20152020 (Cont.)

Table 2 shows cross-tabulations of end-user segment and network type for the final year of the
forecast period (2020). Consumer Internet remains the primary generator of IP traffic, but mobile
data has the highest growth rate and begins to generate significant traffic by 2020 (Table 2).
Consumer

Business

Total

Internet

107

23

131

Managed IP

29

33

Mobile data

26

31

Total

162

32

194

Table 2 Exabytes per Month as of Year End 2020

Table 3 shows the same data as Table 2, but in terms of annual traffic run rates.
These run rates are based on the monthly traffic at the end of 2020.
Consumer

Business

Total

Internet

1288

281

1569

Managed IP

345

52

397

Mobile data

313

54

367

Total

1947

386

2332

Table 3 Exabytes per Year as of Year End 2020

Consumer and business traffic are both dominated by Internet traffic, although business
traffic is more evenly distributed across public Internet and managed IP (Table 4).
Consumer

Business

Internet

66%

73%

Managed IP

18%

13%

Mobile data

16%

14%

Total

100%

100%

Table 4 Traffic Share by End-User Segment as of Year End 2020

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Global IP Traffic, 20152020 (Cont.)

Consumer traffic accounts for the majority of IP traffic in every network type segment.
Consumer traffic will be 82 percent of all fixed Internet traffic, 87 percent of all of
managed IP traffic, and 85 percent of all mobile data traffic (Table 5).
Consumer

Business

Total

Internet

82%

18%

100%

Managed IP

87%

13%

100%

Mobile data

85%

15%

100%

Total

83%

17%

100%

Table 5 Traffic Share by Network Type as of Year End 2020

Consumer Internet traffic will represent more than half of all IP traffic, followed by
consumer-managed IP (VoD), which represents 15 percent of traffic (Table 6).
Consumer

Business

Total

Internet

55%

12%

67%

Managed IP

15%

2%

17%

Mobile data

13%

2%

16%

Total

83%

17%

100%

Table 6 Overall Traffic Share as of Year End 2020

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Global Consumer IP Traffic, 20152020

As shown in Table 7, global consumer IP traffic is expected to reach 162 EB per
month in 2020. Most of todays consumer IP traffic is Internet traffic.
Consumer IP Traffic, 20152020
2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

CAGR
20152020

Fixed Internet

39,345

48,223

59,294

72,442

88,399

107,375

22%

Managed IP

16,166

18,969

21,686

24,320

26,687

28,754

12%

Mobile data

3027

5127

8326

12,609

18,436

26,080

54%

Asia Pacific

19,869

24,359

30,138

37,265

45,942

56,494

23%

North America

21,240

26,071

31,398

37,244

43,291

50,008

19%

Western Europe

8922

10,896

13,277

15,899

19,222

22,876

21%

Central and Eastern Europe

3753

4769

6229

8143

10,787

13,885

30%

Latin America

3502

4365

5450

6649

8069

9838

23%

Middle East and Africa

1253

1860

2815

4172

6209

9108

49%

58,539

72,320

89,306

109,371

133,521

162,209

23%

By Type (PB per Month)

By Geography (PB per Month)

Total (PB per Month)

Consumer IP traffic

Table 7 Global Consumer IP Traffic, 20152020

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Global Consumer Internet Traffic, 20152020

This category encompasses any IP traffic that crosses the Internet and is not confined to a single service
providers network. Internet video streaming and downloads are beginning to take a larger share of
bandwidth and will grow to more than 80 percent of all consumer Internet traffic by 2020 (Table 8).

Definitions

Consumer Internet Traffic, 20152020

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

CAGR
20152020

Fixed

39,345

48,223

59,294

72,442

88,399

107,375

22%

Mobile

3027

5127

8326

12,609

18,436

26,080

54%

Internet video

28,768

38,116

50,512

66,263

86,708

109,907

31%

Web, email, and data

7558

9170

11,061

12,752

14,060

17,006

18%

File sharing

5965

5938

5858

5742

5645

5974

0%

Online gaming

82

126

189

294

421

568

47%

Asia Pacific

14,534

18,052

22,955

29,193

37,012

46,709

26%

North America

13,097

16,659

20,793

25,520

30,720

36,780

23%

Western Europe

6957

8618

10,712

13,088

16,180

19,723

23%

Central and Eastern Europe

3481

4424

5764

7561

10,079

13,056

30%

Middle East and Africa

1192

1770

2692

4013

6013

8874

49%

Latin America

3111

3828

4704

5675

6831

8312

22%

Consumer Internet traffic

42,372

53,351

67,621

85,051

106,834

133,454

26%

Total IP traffic

72,521

88,719

108,533

132,101

160,561

194,374

22%

By Network (PB per Month)

By Subsegment (PB per Month)

By Geography (PB per Month)

Total (PB per Month)

Web, email, and data Includes

web, email, instant messaging,
and other data traffic
(excludes file sharing)
File sharing Includes peer-to-peer
(P2P) traffic from all recognized
P2P systems such as BitTorrent and
eDonkey, as well as traffic from webbased file-sharing systems
Online gaming Includes casual
online gaming, networked console
gaming, and multiplayer virtualworld gaming
Internet video Includes shortform Internet video (for example,
YouTube), long-form Internet video
(for example, Hulu), live Internet
video, Internet video to TV (for
example, Netflix through Roku),
online video purchases and rentals,
webcam viewing, and web-based
video monitoring (excludes P2P
video file downloads)

Table 8 Global Consumer Internet Traffic, 20152020

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Global Consumer Internet Traffic, 20152020: Web, Email, and Data

This general category encompasses web browsing, email, instant messaging, data (which
includes file transfer using HTTP and FTP), and other Internet applications (Table 9). Note that
data may include the download of video files that are not captured by the Internet video-to-PC
forecast. This category includes traffic generated by all individual Internet users. An Internet user
is here defined as someone who accesses the Internet through a desktop or laptop computer
at home, school, Internet caf, or other location outside the context of a business.
Consumer Web, Email, and Data Traffic, 20152020
2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

CAGR
20152020

Fixed web and data

6310

7210

8142

8779

8948

10,629

11%

Mobile web and data

1248

1961

2919

3973

5112

6377

39%

Asia Pacific

2670

3245

3991

4766

5407

6475

19%

North America

2142

2512

2854

2995

3032

3633

11%

Central and Eastern Europe

682

959

1300

1644

1987

2401

29%

Western Europe

1269

1435

1593

1695

1692

2021

10%

Middle East and Africa

300

459

677

935

1191

1586

40%

Latin America

495

561

646

718

751

890

12%

7558

9170

11,061

12,752

14,060

17,006

18%

By Network (PB per Month)

By Geography (PB per Month)

Total (PB per Month)

Consumer web, email,
and data

Table 9 Global Consumer Web, Email, and Data Traffic, 20152020

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Global Consumer Internet Traffic, 20152020: File Sharing

This category includes traffic from P2P applications such as BitTorrent and eDonkey, as well
as web-based file sharing. Note that a large portion of P2P traffic is due to the exchange
of video files, so a total view of the impact of video on the network should count P2P video
traffic in addition to the traffic counted in the Internet video-to-PC and Internet video-to-TV
categories. Table 10 shows the forecast for consumer P2P traffic from 2015 to 2020. Note
that the P2P category is limited to traditional file exchange and does not include commercial
video-streaming applications that are delivered through P2P, such as PPStream or PPLive.
Consumer File Sharing, 20152020
2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

CAGR
20152020

Fixed

5942

5909

5829

5713

5616

5939

0%

Mobile

22

28

29

29

29

35

9%

P2P file transfer

4798

4550

4224

3840

3438

3633

-5%

Other file transfer

1166

1388

1634

1902

2207

2340

15%

Asia Pacific

2335

2269

2186

2098

2004

2098

-2%

North America

1015

1137

1260

1371

1478

1576

9%

Western Europe

1124

1105

1096

1075

1053

1131

0%

Central and Eastern Europe

829

763

691

646

621

666

-4%

Latin America

554

573

558

514

454

463

-4%

Middle East and Africa

107

91

68

39

34

39

-18%

5965

5938

5858

5742

5645

5974

0%

By Network (PB per Month)

By Segment (PB per Month)

By Geography (PB per Month)

Total (PB per Month)

Consumer file sharing

Table 10 Global Consumer File-Sharing Traffic, 20152020

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Global Consumer Internet Traffic, 20152020: Internet Video

With the exception of the Internet video-to-TV subcategory, all of the Internet video subcategories
consist of online video that is downloaded or streamed for viewing on a PC screen (Table 11). Internet
video to TV is Internet delivery of video to a TV screen through a set-top box (STB) or equivalent device.
Much of the video streamed or downloaded through the Internet consists of free clips, episodes, and
other content offered by traditional content producers such as movie studios and television networks.

Definitions

Consumer Internet Video 20152020

Internet video to TV Video

delivered through the Internet to
a TV screen by way of an Internetenabled STB (for example, Roku)
or equivalent device (for example,
Microsoft Xbox 360), Internetenabled TV, or PC-to-TV connection

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

CAGR
20152020

Fixed

27,011

34,978

45,134

57,656

73,413

90,239

27%

Mobile

1756

3138

5378

8607

13,295

19,668

62%

Video

22,344

29,046

38,297

50,596

67,423

86,704

31%

Internet video to TV

6424

9070

12,215

15,667

19,284

23,203

29%

Asia Pacific

9516

12,519

16,749

22,285

29,537

38,052

32%

North America

9894

12,939

16,574

20,989

25,973

31,251

26%

Western Europe

4545

6047

7978

10,247

13,334

16,433

29%

Central and Eastern Europe

1969

2701

3771

5267

7464

9980

38%

Middle East and Africa

785

1219

1945

3036

4783

7243

56%

Latin America

2059

2691

3496

4438

5617

6947

28%

Live Internet TV P2P TV (excluding

P2P video downloads) and live
television streaming over the Internet

28,768

38,116

50,512

66,263

86,708

109,907

31%

Internet PVR Recording of live TV

content for later viewing

By Type (PB per Month)

By Segment (PB per Month)

By Geography (PB per Month)

Total (PB per Month)

Consumer Internet video

Table 11 Global Consumer File-Sharing Traffic, 20152020

Video Video includes the following

underlying categories:
Short form User-generated video and
other video clips generally less than 7
minutes in length
Video calling Video messages
or calling delivered on fixed
Internet initiated by smartphones,
nonsmartphones, and tablets
Long form Video content generally
greater than 7 minutes in length

Ambient video Nanny cams, pet

cams, home security cams, and other
persistent video streams
Mobile video All video that travels over
a second-, third-, or fourth-generation
(2G, 3G, or 4G, respectively) network

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Cisco Visual Networking Index:

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Global ContentDelivery Network Traffic, 20152020

With the emergence of popular video-streaming services that deliver Internet video to the TV and
other device endpoints, CDNs have prevailed as a dominant method to deliver such content. Globally,
64 percent of all Internet traffic will cross CDNs by 2020, up from 45 percent in 2015. Globally, 73
percent of all Internet video traffic will cross CDNs by 2020, up from 61 percent in 2015 (Table 12).
CDN Traffic, 20152020
2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

CAGR
20152020

North America

11,080

15,094

20,113

26,382

33,829

41,292

30%

Asia Pacific

5590

7807

10,924

15,115

20,711

27,628

38%

Western Europe

5025

6798

9096

11,903

15,744

19,817

32%

Central and Eastern Europe

1086

1649

2473

3656

5429

7648

48%

Latin America

853

1207

1662

2210

2890

3877

35%

Middle East and Africa

285

478

797

1286

2066

3734

67%

23,919

33,033

45,065

60,553

80,670

103,996

34%

By Geography (PB per Month)

Total (PB per Month)

CDN Internet traffic

Table 12 Global ContentDelivery Network Internet Traffic, 20152020

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Global Consumer-Managed IP Traffic, 20152020

Managed IP video is IP traffic generated by traditional commercial TV services (Table
13). This traffic remains within the footprint of a single service provider, so it is not
considered Internet traffic. (For Internet video delivered to the STB, refer to Internet
video to TV in the section Global Consumer Internet Traffic, 2015-2020.)
Consumer-Managed IP Traffic, 20152020
2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

CAGR
20152020

16,166

18,969

21,686

24,320

26,687

28,754

12%

North America

8143

9412

10,604

11,724

12,572

13,227

10%

Asia Pacific

5335

6308

7183

8072

8930

9785

13%

Western Europe

1965

2278

2565

2811

3042

3153

10%

Latin America

392

537

746

974

1238

1526

31%

Central and Eastern Europe

272

344

465

581

709

829

25%

Middle East and Africa

61

90

123

159

196

234

31%

16,166

18,969

21,686

24,320

26,687

28,754

12%

By Network (PB per Month)

Fixed
By Geography (PB per Month)

Total (PB per Month)

Managed IP video traffic

Table 13 Global Consumer-Managed IP Traffic, 20152020

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Business IP Traffic, 20152020

The enterprise forecast is based on the number of network-connected computers worldwide.
In our experience, this basis provides the most accurate measure of enterprise data usage. An
average business user might generate 4 GB per month of Internet and WAN traffic. A largeenterprise user would generate significantly more traffic, 810 GB per month (Table 14).

Definitions

Business IP Traffic, 20152020

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

CAGR
20152020

Business Internet traffic

10,149

11,937

14,006

16,570

19,704

23,383

18%

Business managed IP traffic

3176

3409

3617

3834

4063

4298

6%

Business mobile data traffic

658

1053

1605

2325

3273

4484

47%

Asia Pacific

4958

5788

6820

8092

9581

11,356

18%

North America

3518

4246

5129

6238

7547

9080

21%

Western Europe

2377

2735

3131

3636

4313

5084

16%

Central and Eastern Europe

1453

1665

1887

2155

2588

3135

17%

Middle East and Africa

678

838

1007

1209

1454

1758

21%

Latin America

998

1127

1255

1400

1556

1752

12%

13,982

16,399

19,227

22,729

27,040

32,165

18%

By Network (PB per Month)

By Geography (PB per Month)

Business Internet traffic All

business traffic that crosses the
public Internet
Business IP traffic All business
traffic that is transported over IP but
remains within the corporate WAN
Business mobile data traffic All
business traffic that crosses a mobile
access point

Total (PB per Month)

Business IP traffic

Table 14 Business IP Traffic, 20152020

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Mobile Data Traffic, 20152020

Mobile data traffic includes handset-based data traffic, such as text messaging, multimedia
messaging, and handset video services (Table 15). Mobile Internet traffic is generated by
wireless cards for portable computers and handset-based mobile Internet usage. The term
mobile data includes both the data traffic and the Internet traffic on mobile networks.
Mobile Data Traffic, 20152020
2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

CAGR
20152020

Asia Pacific

1579

2677

4423

6725

9772

13,713

54%

Central and Eastern Europe

546

946

1511

2243

3249

4442

52%

Middle East and Africa

294

570

1039

1723

2778

4314

71%

North America

557

831

1199

1700

2328

3208

42%

Western Europe

432

708

1045

1477

2061

2795

45%

Latin America

276

448

715

1066

1521

2092

50%

3685

6180

9931

14,934

21,708

30,564

53%

By Geography (PB per Month)

Total (PB per Month)

Mobile data

Table 15 Mobile Data Traffic, 20152020

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Cisco Visual Networking Index:

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For More Information

For more information, refer to the companion document The Zettabyte EraTrends and Analysis.
Several interactive tools are available to help you create custom highlights and forecast charts by
region, by country, by application, and by end-user segment (refer to the Cisco VNI Forecast Highlights
tool and the Cisco VNI Forecast Widget tool). Inquiries can be directed to [email protected].

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San Jose, CA

Asia Pacific Headquarters

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Singapore

Europe Headquarters
Cisco Systems International BV
Amsterdam, The Netherlands

Cisco has more than 200 offices worldwide. Addresses, phone numbers, and fax numbers are listed on the Cisco website at www.cisco.com/go/offices.
Cisco, the Cisco logo, Cisco Visual Networking Index, and Cisco VNI are trademarks or registered trademarks of Cisco and/or its affiliates in the U.S. and other countries. To view
a list of Cisco trademarks, see the Trademarks page on the Cisco website. Thirdparty trademarks mentioned are the property of their respective owners.
The use of the word partner does not imply a partnership relationship between Cisco and any other company. (1606R)

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