Table of content

1- Introduction
a) Temperature changes
2- Literature review

3- Objective of study

4- External forces of global warming

5- Attributed and expected effect

6- Response to global warming

7- Greenhouse gas emissions per capita in 2000

8- Cause of global warming

9- Effects of global warming

10 Prevention of global warming

Introduction of global warming

Global warming is the increase in the average temperature of Earth's near-surface air and oceans
since the mid-20th century and its projected continuation. Global surface temperature increased
0.74 ± 0.18 °C (1.33 ± 0.32 °F) between the start and the end of the 20th century.  The
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) concludes that most of the observed
temperature increase since the middle of the 20th century was very likely caused by increasing
concentrations of greenhouse gases resulting from human activity such as fossil fuel burning and
deforestation.  The IPCC also concludes that variations in natural phenomena such as solar
radiation and volcanic eruptions had a small cooling effect after 1950. These basic conclusions
have been endorsed by more than 40 scientific societies and academies of science, including all
of the national academies of science of the major industrialized countries.

Climate model projections summarized in the latest IPCC report indicate that the global surface
temperature is likely to rise a further1.1 to 6.4 °C (2.0 to 11.5 °F) during the 21st
century . The uncertainty in this estimate arises from the use of models with differing sensitivity
to greenhouse gas concentrations and the use of differing estimates of future greenhouse gas
emissions. Most studies focus on the period leading up to the year 2100. However, warming is
expected to continue beyond 2100 even if emissions stop, because of the large heat capacity of
the oceans and the long lifetime of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere.

An increase in global temperature will cause sea levels to rise and will change the amount and
pattern of precipitation, probably including expansion of subtropical deserts. Warming is
expected to be strongest in the Arctic and would be associated with continuing retreat of
glaciers, permafrost and sea ice. Other likely effects include changes in the frequency and
intensity of extreme weather events, species extinctions, and changes in agricultural yields.
Warming and related changes will vary from region to region around the globe, though the
nature of these regional variations are uncertain.
Political and public debate continues regarding global warming, and what actions to take in
response. The available options are mitigation to reduce further emissions; adaptation to reduce
the damage caused by warming; and, more speculatively, geo-engineering to reverse global
warming. Most national governments have signed and ratified the Kyoto Protocol aimed at
reducing greenhouse gas emissions.
1-
interpretation of figure:

Global annual surface temperatures relative to 1951-1980 mean temperatures from GISS.

Analysis summarizes satellite measurements 1982 onward, and ship-based analysis from years
earlier. Estimated error 95% confidence resulting from incomplete spatial coverage.

Except for a leveling off between the 1940s and 1970s, Earth's surface temperatures have
increased since 1880. The last decade has brought the temperatures to the highest levels ever
recorded. The graph shows global annual surface temperatures relative to 1951-1980 mean
temperatures. As shown by the red line, long-term trends are more apparent when temperatures
are averaged over a five year period.

2-
 This figure compares the global average surface temperature record, as compiled by Jones and
Moberg (2003; data set TaveGL2v with 2009 updates), to the microwave sounder  (MSU)
satellite  data of lower atmospheric temperatures determined by Christy et al. (UAH 2003; data
set tltglhmam version 5.2 with 2009 updates) and Schabel et al. (RSS 2002; data settlite
land_and_ocean with 2009 updates). These two satellite records reflect two different ways of
interpreting the same set of microwave sounder measurements and are not independent records.
Each record is plotted as the monthly average and straight lines are fit through each data set from
January 1982 to December 2009. The slope of these lines are 0.187°C/decade, 0.163°C/decade,
and 0.239°C/decade for the surface, UAH, and RSS respectively.

It is important to know that the 5.2 version of Christy et al.'s satellite temperature record contains
a significant correction over previous versions. In summer 2005, Mears and Wentz (2005)
discovered that the UAH processing algorithms were incorrectly adjusting for diurnal variations,
especially at low latitude. This correction raised the trend line 0.035°C/decade, and in so doing
brought it into much better agreement with the ground based records and with independent
satellite based analysis (e.g. Fu et al. 2004). The discovery of this error also explains why their
satellite based temperature trends had disagreed most prominently in the tropics.

Within measurement error, all of these records paint a similar picture of temperature change
and global warming. However, climate models predict carbon dioxide based greenhouse
warming should result in lower atmosphere warming roughly 1.3 times higher than the surface
warming. This prediction is consistent with the RSS vs. surface comparison, though by contrast
the UAH vs. surface comparison suggests a troposphere warming by slightly less than the
surface of the Earth.

In the above figure, there is still a significant discrepancy between the very earliest satellite
measurements and the ground based measurements at that time. For this reason only the interval
1982-2005 was used in calculating each trend. Including the earliest years leads to a wider
dispersion , with trends of 0.170°C/decade, 0.116°C/decade, and 0.192°C/decade for the surface,
UAH, and RSS data respectively. The origin of this discrepancy is unclear.
3-
The map illustrate just how much warmer temperatures were in the decade (2000-2009)
compared to average temperatures recorded between 1951 and 1980 (a common reference period
for climate studies). The most extreme warming, shown in red, was in the Arctic. Very few areas
saw cooler than average temperatures, shown in blue. Gray areas over parts of the Southern
Ocean are places where temperatures were not recorded. The analysis, conducted by the Goddard
Institute for Space Studies (GISS) in New York City, is based on temperatures recorded at
weather stations around the world and satellite data over the oceans.

Temperature changes:
The most common measure of global warming is the trend in globally averaged temperature near
the Earth's surface. Expressed as a linear trend, this temperature rose by 0.74 ± 0.18 °C over the
period 1906–2005. The rate of warming over the last half of that period was almost double that
for the period as a whole (0.13 ± 0.03 °C per decade, versus 0.07 °C ± 0.02 °C per decade).
The urban heat island effect is estimated to account for about 0.002 °C of warming per decade
since 1900. Temperatures in the lower troposphere have increased between 0.13 and 0.22 °C
(0.22 and 0.4 °F) per decade since 1979, according to satellite temperature measurements.
Temperature is believed to have been relatively stable over the one or two thousand years before
1850, with regionally varying fluctuations such as the Medieval Warm Period and the Little Ice
Age.

Estimates by NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies and the National Climatic Data

Center show that 2005 was the warmest year since reliable, widespread instrumental
measurements became available in the late 1800s, exceeding the previous record set in 1998 by
a few hundredths of a degree. Estimates prepared by the World Meteorological Organization and
the Climatic Research Unit show 2005 as the second warmest year, behind 1998.[14]
[15]
 Temperatures in 1998 were unusually warm because the strongest El Niño in the past century
occurred during that year.[16] Global temperature is subject to short-term fluctuations that overlay
long term trends and can temporarily mask them. The relative stability in temperature from 2002
to 2009 is consistent with such an episode.

Temperature changes vary over the globe. Since 1979, land temperatures have increased about
twice as fast as ocean temperatures (0.25 °C per decade against 0.13 °C per decade). Ocean
temperatures increase more slowly than land temperatures because of the larger effective heat
capacity of the oceans and because the ocean loses more heat by evaporation. The warms faster
than the Southern Hemisphere because it has more land and because it has extensive areas of
seasonal snow and sea-ice cover subject to ice-albedo feedback. Although more greenhouse
gases are emitted in the Northern than Southern Hemisphere this does not contribute to the
difference in warming because the major greenhouse gases persist long enough to mix between
hemispheres.

The thermal inertia of the oceans and slow responses of other indirect effects mean that climate
can take centuries or longer to adjust to changes in forcing. Climate commitment studies indicate
that even if greenhouse gases were stabilized at 2000 levels, a further warming of
about 0.5 °C (0.9 °F) would still occur.

Literature review:
BEYOND THE IVORY TOWER:
The Scientific Consensus on Climate Change
Naomi Oreskes

Policy-makers and the media, particularly in the United States, frequently assert that climate
science is highly uncertain. Some have used this as an argument against adopting strong
measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. For example, while discussing a major U.S.
Environmental Protection Agency report on the risks of climate change, then-EPA administrator
Christine Whitman argued, "As [the report] went through review, there was less consensus on
the science and conclusions on climate change" (1). Some corporations whose revenues might be
adversely affected by controls on carbon dioxide emissions have also alleged major uncertainties
in the science ( 2). Such statements suggest that there might be substantive disagreement in the
scientific community about the reality of anthropogenic climate change. This is not the case.

The scientific consensus is clearly expressed in the reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change (IPCC). Created in 1988 by the World Meteorological Organization and the
United Nations Environmental Programme, IPCC's purpose is to evaluate the state of climate
science as a basis for informed policy action, primarily on the basis of peer-reviewed and
published scientific literature (3). In its most recent assessment, IPCC states unequivocally that
the consensus of scientific opinion is that Earth's climate is being affected by human activities:
"Human activities ... are modifying the concentration of atmospheric constituents ... that absorb
or scatter radiant energy Most of the observed warming over the last 50 years is likely to have
been due to the increase in greenhouse gas concentrations"IPCC is not alone in its conclusions.
In recent years, all major scientific bodies in the United States whose members' expertise bears
directly on the matter have issued similar statements. For example, the National Academy of
Sciences report, Climate Change Science: An Analysis of Some Key Questions, begins:
"Greenhouse gases are accumulating in Earth's atmosphere as a result of human activities,
causing surface air temperatures and subsurface ocean temperatures to rise". The report explicitly
asks whether the IPCC assessment is a fair summary of professional scientific thinking, and
answers yes: "The IPCC's conclusion that most of the observed warming of the last 50 years is
likely to have been due to the increase in greenhouse gas concentrations accurately reflects the
current thinking of the scientific community on this issue" .

Others agree. The American Meteorological Society , the American Geophysical Union, and the
American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) all have issued statements in
recent years concluding that the evidence for human modification of climate is compelling .

The drafting of such reports and statements involves many opportunities for comment, criticism,
and revision, and it is not likely that they would diverge greatly from the opinions of the
societies' members. Nevertheless, they might downplay legitimate dissenting opinions. That
hypothesis was tested by analyzing 928 abstracts, published in refereed scientific journals
between 1993 and 2003, and listed in the ISI database with the keywords "climate change" .

The 928 papers were divided into six categories: explicit endorsement of the consensus position,
evaluation of impacts, mitigation proposals, methods, paleoclimate analysis, and rejection of the
consensus position. Of all the papers, 75% fell into the first three categories, either explicitly or
implicitly accepting the consensus view; 25% dealt with methods or paleoclimate, taking no
position on current anthropogenic climate change. Remarkably, none of the papers disagreed
with the consensus position. Admittedly, authors evaluating impacts, developing methods, or
studying paleoclimatic change might believe that current climate change is natural. However,
none of these papers argued that point.

This analysis shows that scientists publishing in the peer-reviewed literature agree with IPCC,
the National Academy of Sciences, and the public statements of their professional societies.
Politicians, economists, journalists, and others may have the impression of confusion,
disagreement, or discord among climate scientists, but that impression is incorrect. The scientific
consensus might, of course, be wrong. If the history of science teaches anything, it is humility,
and no one can be faulted for failing to act on what is not known. But our grandchildren will
surely blame us if they find that we understood the reality of anthropogenic climate change and
failed to do anything about it.

Many details about climate interactions are not well understood, and there are ample grounds for
continued research to provide a better basis for understanding climate dynamics. The question of
what to do about climate change is also still open. But there is a scientific consensus on the
reality of anthropogenic climate change. Climate scientists have repeatedly tried to make this
clear.

Objective of the study:

1. To measure its impact on human beings as well as in our surrounding.

External forces of global warming

External forcing refers to processes external to the climate system (though not necessarily
external to Earth) that influence climate. Climate responds to several types of external forcing,
such as radiative forcing due to changes in atmospheric composition (mainly greenhouse
gas concentrations), changes in solar luminosity, volcanic eruptions, and variations in Earth's
orbitaround the Sun.[4] Attribution of recent climate change focuses on the first three types of
forcing. Orbital cycles vary slowly over tens of thousands of years and thus are too gradual to
have caused the temperature changes observed in the past century.

1- Greenhouse gases
The greenhouse effect is the process by which absorption and emission of infrared radiation by
gases in the atmosphere warm a planet's lower atmosphere and surface. It was discovered
by Joseph Fourier in 1824 and was first investigated quantitatively by Svante Arrhenius in 1896.
Naturally occurring greenhouse gases have a mean warming effect of about 33 °C (59 °F). The
major greenhouse gases are water vapor, which causes about 36–70 percent of the greenhouse
effect; carbon dioxide (CO2), which causes 9–26 percent; methane (CH4), which causes 4–9
percent; and ozone (O3), which causes 3–7 percent. Clouds also affect the radiation balance, but
they are composed of liquid water or ice and so are considered separately from water vapor and
other gases.

Human activity since the Industrial Revolution has increased the amount of greenhouse gases in
the atmosphere, leading to increased radiative forcing from CO2, methane, tropospheric 
ozone, CFCs and nitrous oxide. The concentrations of CO2 and methane have increased by 36%
and 148% respectively since 1750.  These levels are much higher than at any time during the last
650,000 years, the period for which reliable data has been extracted from ice cores. Less direct
geological evidence indicates that CO2 values higher than this were last seen about 20 million
years ago.  Fossil fuel burning has produced about three-quarters of the increase in CO2 from
human activity over the past 20 years.

This figure is a simplified, schematic representation of the flows of energy between space,

the atmosphere, and the Earth's surface, and shows how these flows combine to trap heat near the
surface and create the greenhouse effect. Energy exchanges are expressed in watts per
square meter (W/m2) and derived from Kiehl & Trenberth (1997).

The sun is ultimately responsible for virtually all energy that reaches the Earth's surface. Direct
overhead sunlight at the top of the atmosphere provides 1366 W/m2; however, geometric effects
and reflective surfaces limit the light which is absorbed at the typical location to an annual
average of ~235 W/m2. If this were the total heat received at the surface, then, neglecting
changes in albedo, the Earth's surface would be expected to have an average temperature of -18
°C (Lashof 1989). Instead, the Earth's atmosphere recycles heat coming from the surface and
delivers an additional 324 W/m2, which results in an average surface temperature of roughly +14
°C [1].

Of the surface heat captured by the atmosphere, more than 75% can be attributed to the action
of greenhouse gases that absorb thermal radiation emitted by the Earth's surface. The atmosphere
in turn transfers the energy it receives both into space (38%) and back to the Earth's surface
(62%), where the amount transferred in each direction depends on the thermal and density
structure of the atmosphere.
This process by which energy is recycled in the atmosphere to warm the Earth's surface is known
as the greenhouse effect and is an essential piece of Earth's climate. Under stable conditions, the
total amount of energy entering the system from solar radiation will exactly balance the amount
being radiated into space, thus allowing the Earth to maintain a constant average temperature
over time. However, recent measurements indicate that the Earth is presently absorbing 0.85 ±
0.15 W/m2 more than it emits into space (Hansen et al. 2005). An overwhelming majority of
climate scientists believe that this asymmetry in the flow of energy has been significantly
increased by human emissions of greenhouse gases 

This figure shows the history of atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations as directly measured

at Mauna Loa, Hawaii. This curve is known as the Keeling curve, and is an essential piece of
evidence of the man-made increases in greenhouse gases that are believed to be the cause
of global warming. The longest such record exists at Mauna Loa, but these measurements have
been independently confirmed at many other sites around the world .
The annual fluctuation in carbon dioxide is caused by seasonal variations in carbon dioxide
uptake by land plants. Since many more forests are concentrated in the Northern Hemisphere,
more carbon dioxide is removed from the atmosphere during Northern
Hemisphere summer than Southern Hemisphere summer. This annual cycle is shown in the inset
figure by taking the average concentration for each month across all measured [Link] grey
curve shows the average monthly concentrations, and red curve is a moving 12 month average.

2- Aerosols and soot

Global dimming, a gradual reduction in the amount of global direct irradiance at the Earth's
surface, has partially counteracted global warming from 1960 to the present. The main cause of
this dimming isaerosols produced by volcanoes and pollutants. These aerosols exert a cooling
effect by increasing the reflection of incoming sunlight. James E. Hansen and colleagues have
proposed that the effects of the products of fossil fuel combustion—CO2and aerosols—have
largely offset one another in recent decades, so that net warming has been driven mainly by non-
CO2 greenhouse gases.

In addition to their direct effect by scattering and absorbing solar radiation, aerosols have
indirect effects on the radiation budget. Sulfate aerosols act as cloud condensation nuclei and
thus lead to clouds that have more and smaller cloud droplets. These clouds reflect solar
radiationmore efficiently than clouds with fewer and larger droplets. This effect also causes
droplets to be of more uniform size, which reduces growth of raindrops and makes the cloud
more reflective to incoming sunlight.

Soot may cool or warm, depending on whether it is airborne or deposited.

Atmospheric soot aerosols directly absorb solar radiation, which heats the atmosphere and cools
the surface. Regionally (but not globally), as much as 50% of surface warming due to
greenhouse gases may be masked by atmospheric brown clouds. When deposited, especially on
glaciers or on ice in arctic regions, the lower surface albedo can also directly heat the
surface. The influences of aerosols, including black carbon, are most pronounced in the tropics
and sub-tropics, particularly in Asia, while the effects of greenhouse gases are dominant in the
extratropics and southern hemisphere.
3-Solar variation:
This picture depicts the last three solar cycles as measured in solar irradiance,  sunspot 
numbers,  solar flare activity, and 10.7 cm radio flux. Solar irradiance, i.e the direct solar power
at the top of the Earth's atmosphere, is depicted as both a daily measurement and a moving
annual average. All other data are depicted as the annual average value.

Variations in solar output have been the cause of past climate changes, but solar forcing is
generally thought to be too small to account for a significant part of global warming in recent
decades.

Greenhouse gases and solar forcing affect temperatures in different ways. While both increased
solar activity and increased greenhouse gases are expected to warm the troposphere, an increase
in solar activity should warm the stratosphere while an increase in greenhouse gases should cool
the stratosphere. Observations show that temperatures in the stratosphere have been cooling
since 1979, when satellite measurements became available. Radiosonde (weather balloon) data
from the pre-satellite era show cooling since 1958, though there is greater uncertainty in the early
radiosonde record.

A related hypothesis, proposed by Henrik Svensmark, is that magnetic activity of the sun deflects
cosmic rays that may influence the generation of cloud condensation nuclei and thereby affect
the climate. Other research has found no relation between warming in recent decades andcosmic
rays. A recent study concluded that the influence of cosmic rays on cloud cover is about a factor
of 100 lower than needed to explain the observed changes in clouds or to be a significant
contributor to present-day climate change.

This figure shows the predicted distribution of temperature change due to global warming 
from Hadley Centre HadCM3 climate model . These changes are based on the IS92a ("business
as usual") projections of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gas emissions during the next
century, and essentially assume normal levels of economic growth and no significant steps are
taken to combat global greenhouse gas emissions.

The plotted colors show predicted surface temperature changes expressed as the average
prediction for 2070-2100 relative to the model's baseline temperatures in 1960-1990. The
average change is 3.0°C, placing this model towards the low end of the Intergovernmental Panel
on Climate Change's 1.4-5.8°C predicted climate change from 1990 to 2100 [2]. As can be
expected from their lower specific heat, continents warm more rapidly than the oceans in the
model with an average of 4.2°C to 2.5°C respectively. The lowest predicted warming is 0.55°C
south of South America, and the highest is 9.2°C in the Arctic Ocean (points exceeding 8°C are
plotted as black).

Attributed and expected effect:

a)Environmental
It is usually impossible to connect specific weather events to global warming. Instead, global
warming is expected to cause changes in the overall distribution and intensity of events, such as
changes to the frequency and intensity of heavy precipitation. Broader effects are expected to
includeglacial retreat, Arctic shrinkage including long-term shrinkage of Greenland ice sheet[62],
and worldwide sea level rise. Some effects on both thenatural environment and human life are, at
least in part, already being attributed to global warming. A 2001 report by the IPCC suggests
thatglacier retreat, ice shelf disruption such as that of the Larsen Ice Shelf, sea level rise, changes
in rainfall patterns, and increased intensity and frequency of extreme weather events are
attributable in part to global warming. Other expected effects include water scarcity in some
regions and increased precipitation in others, changes in mountain snowpack, and some adverse
health effects from warmer temperatures.

Social and economic effects of global warming may be exacerbated by growing

population densities in affected areas. Temperate regions are projected to experience fewer cold-
related deaths but many more deaths from heat exposure. A summary of probable effects and
recent understanding can be found in the report made for the IPCC Third Assessment Report by
Working Group II. The newer IPCC Fourth Assessment Report summary reports that there is
observational evidence for an increase in intense tropical cyclone activity in the North Atlantic
Ocean since about 1970, in correlation with the increase in sea surface temperature (see Atlantic
Multidecadal Oscillation), but that the detection of long-term trends is complicated by the quality
of records prior to routine satellite observations. The summary also states that there is no clear
trend in the annual worldwide number of tropical cyclones.

Additional anticipated effects include sea level rise of 0.18 to 0.59 meters (0.59 to 1.9 ft) in

2090–2100 relative to 1980–1999,  new trade routes resulting from arctic shrinkage, possible
thermohaline circulation slowing, increasingly intense, in some locations, (but less frequent)
hurricanes and extreme weather events, reductions in the ozone layer, changes in agriculture
yields, changes in the range of climate-dependent disease vectors, which have been linked to
increases in the prevalence of malaria and dengue fever, and ocean oxygen depletion. Increased
atmospheric CO2 increases the amount of CO2 dissolved in the oceans. CO2 dissolved in the
ocean reacts with water to form carbonic acid, resulting in ocean acidification. Ocean
surface pH is estimated to have decreased from 8.25 near the beginning of the industrial era to
8.14 by 2004, and is projected to decrease by a further 0.14 to 0.5 units by 2100 as the ocean
absorbs more CO2. Heat and carbon dioxide trapped in the oceans may still take hundreds of
years to be re-emitted, even after greenhouse gas emissions are eventually reduced.
Since organisms and ecosystems are adapted to a narrow range of pH, this raises  extinction
concerns and disruptions in food webs.[75] One study predicts 18% to 35% of a sample of 1,103
animal and plant species would be extinct by 2050, based on future climate projections
However, few mechanistic studies have documented extinctions due to recent climate
change, and one study suggests that projected rates of extinction are uncertain.

This figure shows the average rate of thickness change in mountain glaciers around the world.
This information, known as the glaciological mass balance, is found by measuring the annual
snow accumulation and subtracting surface ablation driven by melting, sublimation, or wind
erosion. These measurements do not account for thinning associated with iceberg calving, flow
related thinning, or sub glacial erosion. All values are corrected for variations in snow
and firn density and expressed in meters of water equivalent (Dyurgerov 2002).

Measurements are shown as both the annual average thickness change and the accumulated
change during the fifty years of measurements presented. Years with a net increase in glacier
thickness are plotted upwards and in red; years with a net decrease in glacier thickness (i.e.
positive thinning) are plotted downward and in blue. Only three years in the last 50 have
experienced thickening in the average.
Systematic measurements of glacier thinning began in the 1940s, but fewer than 15 sites had
been measured each year until the late 1950s. Since then more than 100 sites have contributed to
the average in some years (Dyurgerov 2002, Dyurgerov and Meier 2005). Error bars indicate
the standard error in the mean.

Other observations, based on glacier length records, suggest that glacier retreat has occurred
nearly continuously since the early 1800s and the end of the little ice age, but variations in rate
have occurred, including a significant acceleration during the twentieth century that is believed
to have been a response to global warming (Oerlemans 2005).
2-Economic:
In a literature assessment, Smith and others concluded, with medium confidence,[D] that:

 climate change would increase income inequalities between and within countries
 a small increase in global mean temperature (up to 2 °C by 2100, measured against 1990
levels) would result in net negative market sector impacts in many developing countries and
net positive market sector impacts in many developed countries
 the aggregate market sector impact (i.e., total impacts across all regions) of a small
increase in global mean temperature would amount to plus or minus a few percent of world
GDP.
With high confidence, Smith and others concluded that a medium (2-3 °C) to high (above 3 °C)
level of warming would result in more intense negative impacts, and that net positive impacts
would begin to decline and eventually become negative. They found that most studies showed
aggregate net damages at a global scale above a medium temperature increase, with further
damages at higher temperatures.

Depending on underlying assumptions, studies of the economic impacts of a doubling in

atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) from pre-industrial levels conclude that this would have a
slightly negative to moderately positive aggregate effect on the agricultural sector. This
aggregate effect hides substantial regional differences, with benefits mostly predicted in the
developed world and strongly negative impacts for populations poorly connected to regional
and global trading systems.

A number of other sectors will be affected by climate change, including the livestock, forestry,

and fisheries industries. Other sectors sensitive to climate change include
the energy,construction, insurance, tourism and recreation industries. The aggregate impact of
climate change on most of these sectors is highly uncertain.[80]
Stern in 2007 assessed climate change impacts using the basic economics of risk premiums. He
found that unmitigated climate change could result in a reduction in welfare equivalent to a
persistent average fall in global per-capita consumption of at least 5%. The study by Stern has
received both criticism and support from other economists (see Stern Review). The IPCC in
2007 concluded that "Aggregate estimates of costs mask significant differences in impacts across
sectors, regions and populations and very likely underestimate damage costs because they cannot
include many non-quantifiable impacts.

Response to global warming

The broad agreement among climate scientists that global temperatures will continue to increase
has led some nations, states, corporations and individuals to implement responses. These
responses to global warming can be divided into mitigation of the causes and effects of global
warming, adaptation to the changing global environment, and geoengineering to reverse global
warming.
1-Mitigation:
The 2007 IPCC Fourth Assessment Report concludes that no one technology or sector can be
completely responsible for mitigating future warming. They find there are key practices and
technologies in various sectors, such as energy supply, transportation, industry,
and agriculturethat should be implemented to reduced global emissions. They estimate that
stabilization of carbon dioxide equivalent between 445 and 710 ppm by 2030 will result in
between a 0.6 percent increase and three percent decrease in global gross domestic product.

Mitigation of global warming is accomplished through reductions in the rate

of anthropogenic greenhouse gas release. The world's primary international agreement on
reducing greenhouse gas emissions, the Kyoto Protocol, now covers more than 160 countries and
over 55 percent of global greenhouse gas emissions.[84] As of February 2010, only the United
States, historically the world's largest emitter of greenhouse gases, has refused to ratify the
treaty. The treaty expires in 2012. International talks began in May 2007 on a future treaty to
succeed the current one.[85]The 2009 United Nations Climate Change Conference met in
Copenhagen in December 2009 to agree on a framework for climate change mitigation. No
binding agreement was made.

There has also been business action on climate change, including efforts to improve energy
efficiency and limited moves towards use of alternative fuels. In January 2005 the European
Union introduced its European Union Emission Trading Scheme, through which companies in
conjunction with government agree to cap their emissions or to purchase credits from those
below their allowances. Australia announced its Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme in 2008.
United States President Barack Obama has announced plans to introduce an economy-wide cap
and trade scheme.

2-Adaptation:
A wide variety of measures have been suggested for adaptation to global warming, from the
installation of air-conditioning equipment, to major infrastructure projects, such as
abandoning settlements threatened by sea level rise.

Measures including water conservation, water rationing, adaptive agricultural

practices including diversification, construction of flood defenses, changes to medical care, and
interventions to protect threatened species have all been suggested. A wide-ranging study of the
possible opportunities for adaptation of infrastructure has been published by the Institute of
Mechanical Engineers.
3-Geoengineering:
Geoengineering is the concept of planetary engineering applied to Earth: The deliberate
modification of Earth's natural environment on a large scale to suit human needs.  An example is
greenhouse gas remediation, which removes greenhouse gases from the atmosphere, usually
through carbon sequestration techniques such as carbon dioxide air capture. Solar radiation
management reduces absorbed solar radiation, such as by the addition of stratospheric sulfur
aerosols or cool roof techniques. No geoengineering projects of significant scale have been
implemented, and detailed study has largely been the work of small numbers of scientists; but
various significant institutions such as the Royal Society and IMechE have recently suggested
that further study is warranted. Their various externalities and other costs are seen as major
issues, and the idea or concern that one country could act unilaterally has also been raised.

Greenhouse gas emissions per capita in 2000

Data from the World Resources Institute's CAIT 4.0 database (registration required). Includes
CO2, CH4, N20, PFCs, HFCs and SF6. Estimates of the effects of land-use change are included;
bunker-fuel emissions are not.

The land-use estimates include the following (list from the relevant CAIT data note):
 Clearing of natural ecosystems for permanent croplands (cultivation)
 Clearing of natural ecosystems for permanent pastures (no cultivation)
 Abandonment of croplands and pastures with subsequent recovery of carbon stocks to
those of the original ecosystem
 Shifting cultivation (swidden agriculture) (repeated clearing, abandonment, and
reclearing of forests in many tropical regions)
 Wood harvest (industrial wood as well as fuel wood) - it is important to note that these
estimates include the emissions of carbon from wood products (burned, stored in longterm
pools, decayed over time)
 For the U.S. only, management of wildfires and woody encroachment

Causes of global warming:

Almost 100% of the observed temperature increase over the last 50 years has been due to the
increase in the atmosphere of greenhouse gas concentrations like water vapour, carbon dioxide
(CO2), methane and ozone. Greenhouse gases are those gases that contribute to the greenhouse
effect (see below). The largest contributing source of greenhouse gas is the burning of fossil
fuels leading to the emission of carbon dioxide.

  1-The greenhouse effect:

When sunlight reaches Earth's surface some is absorbed and warms the earth and most of the rest
is radiated back to the atmosphere at a longer wavelength than the sun light. Some of these
longer wavelengths are absorbed by greenhouse gases in the atmosphere before they are lost to
space. The absorption of this longwave radiant energy warms the atmosphere. These greenhouse
gases act like a mirror and reflect back to the Earth some of the heat energy which would
otherwise be lost to space. The reflecting back of heat energy by the atmosphere is called the
"greenhouse effect".

The major natural greenhouse gases are water vapor, which causes about 36-70% of the
greenhouse effect on Earth (not including clouds); carbon dioxide CO2, which causes 9-26%;
methane, which causes 4-9%, and ozone, which causes 3-7%. It is not possible to state that a
certain gas causes a certain percentage of the greenhouse effect, because the influences of the
various gases are not additive. Other greenhouse gases include, but are not limited to, nitrous
oxide, sulfur hexafluoride, hydrofluorocarbons, perfluorocarbons and chlorofluorocarbons.

  2-Global warming causes by greenhouse effect:

Greenhouse gases in the atmosphere (see above) act like a mirror and reflect back to the Earth a
part of the heat radiation, which would otherwise be lost to space. The higher the concentration
of green house gases like carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, the more heat energy is being
reflected back to the Earth. The emission of carbon dioxide into the environment mainly from
burning of fossil fuels (oil, gas, petrol, kerosene, etc.) has been increased dramatically over the
past 50 years, see graph below.

Fig. 1: Cause for global warming: Carbon dioxide emissions in million tons per year over the
last 200 years.
Fig. 2: Global warming cause: Concentration of carbon dioxide has dramatically increased in
the last 50 years 
Fig 3: From which sectors do the major greenhouse gas emissions come from? The lower
part of the picture shows the sources individually for the gases carbon dioxide, methane
and nitrous oxide, respectively.
The increase of greenhouse gas concentration (mainly carbon dioxide) led to a substantial
warming of the earth and the sea, called global warming. In other words: The increase in the
man-made emission of greenhouse gases is the cause for global warming. For the effects of
global warming see below.

Effects of global warming:

There are two major effects of global warming:

 Increase of temperature on the earth by about 3° to 5° C (5.4° to 9° Fahrenheit) by the

year 2100.
 Rise of sea levels by at least 25 meters (82 feet) by the year 2100.
More details about the effects of global warming :
Increasing global temperatures are causing a broad range of changes. Sea levels are rising due to
thermal expansion of the ocean, in addition to melting of land ice. Amounts and patterns of
precipitation are changing. The total annual power of hurricanes has already increased markedly
since 1975 because their average intensity and average duration have increased (in addition,
there has been a high correlation of hurricane power with tropical sea-surface temperature).

Changes in temperature and precipitation patterns increase the frequency, duration, and intensity
of other extreme weather events, such as floods, droughts, heat waves, and tornadoes. Other
effects of global warming include higher or lower agricultural yields, further glacial retreat,
reduced summer stream flows, species extinctions. As a further effect of global warming,
diseases like malaria are returning into areas where they have been extinguished earlier.

Although global warming is affecting the number and magnitude of these events, it is difficult to
connect specific events to global warming. Although most studies focus on the period up to
2100, warming is expected to continue past then because carbon dioxide (chemical symbol CO2)
has an estimated atmospheric lifetime of 50 to 200 years. For a summary of the predictions for
the future increase in temperature up to 2100.

Social system:
a) Food supply
Climate change will impact agriculture and food production around the world due to: the effects
of elevated CO2 in the atmosphere, higher temperatures, altered precipitation
andtranspiration regimes, increased frequency of extreme events, and modified weed, pest,
and pathogen pressure. In general, low-latitude areas are at most risk of having decreased crop
yields . With low to medium confidence, concluded that for about a 1 to 3°C global mean
temperature increase (by 2100, relative to the 1990-2000 average level) there would be
productivity decreases for some cereals in low latitudes, and productivity increases in high
latitudes. With medium confidence, global production potential was predicted to:
  increase up to around 3°C,
 very likely decrease above about 3 to 4°C.
Most of the studies on global agriculture assessed by Schneider et al. (2007:790) had not
incorporated a number of critical factors, including changes in extreme events, or the spread of
pests and diseases. Studies had also not considered the development of specific practices or
technologies to aid adaptation.
Health
Human beings are exposed to climate change through changing weather patterns (temperature,
precipitation, sea-level rise and more frequent extreme events) and indirectly through changes in
water, air and food quality and changes in ecosystems, agriculture, industry and settlements and
the economy. According to a literature assessment , the effects of climate change to date have
been small, but are projected to progressively increase in all countries and regions.

With high confidence, concluded that climate change had altered the seasonal distribution of
some allergenic pollen species. With medium confidence, they concluded that climate change
had:

 altered the distribution of some infectious disease vectors

 increased heatwave-related deaths
With high confidence, IPCC projected that:

 the health status of millions of people would be affected through, for example, increases
in malnutrition; increased deaths, diseases and injury due to extreme weather events;
increased burden of diarrhoeal diseases; increased frequency of cardio-respiratory
diseases due to high concentrations of ground-level ozone in urban areas related to
climate change; and altered spatial distribution of some infectious diseases.
 climate change would bring some benefits in temperate areas, such as fewer deaths from
cold exposure, and some mixed effects such as changes in range and transmission
potential of malaria in Africa. Overall, IPCC expected that benefits would be outweighed
by negative health effects of rising temperatures, especially in developing countries.
With very high confidence, concluded that economic development was an important component
of possible adaptation to climate change. Economic growth on its own, however, was not judged
to be sufficient to insulate the world's population from disease and injury due to climate change.
The manner in which economic growth occurs was judged to be important, along with how the
benefits of growth are distributed in society. Examples of other important factors in determining
the health of populations were listed as: education, health care, and public-health infrastructure.

Water resources
In a literature assessment,concluded, with high confidence, that:

 the negative impacts of climate change on freshwater systems outweigh the benefits. All of
the regions assessed in the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (Africa, Asia, Australia and New
Zealand, Europe, Latin America, North America, Polar regions (Arctic and Antarctic), and
small islands) showed an overall net negative impact of climate change on water resources
and freshwater ecosystems.
 Semi-arid and arid areas are particularly exposed to the impacts of climate change on
freshwater. With very high confidence, it was judged that many of these areas, e.g., the
Mediterranean basin, western USA, southern Africa, and north-eastern Brazil, would suffer a
decrease in water resources due to climate change.

Global warming prevention:

The terms "global warming" and "greenhouse effect" have become common topics of
conversation worldwide. Synonymous with climate change and pollution, this issue is the
contributor for mass speculation. Every individual has the ability to help ensure the health of
our environment and awareness and education is the first step. Contrary to popular belief, it is
not the sole fault of large corporations that our environment is in crisis. It is us, the individual
consumer. Without our need and demand, these companies would not be producing ecologically
harmful products. Information is our best defense and making more environmentally sound
decisions our best offense. There are many substitutes for products and merchandise that would
be more environmentally safe, it is just a matter of knowing what they are:.

1-Chemicals-
Avoid chlorine at all cost! Use of any chlorine compounds is very harmful to the environment
including bubbles in plastic foam, spray paint, fire extinguishers, bleach and a multitude of
discarded household and industrial chemicals. Phosphates found in many laundry detergents and
soaps contributes to water pollution and should be avoided. Aresols such as air fresheners and
hair sprays can contain butane/pentane which contributes to air pollution and should be
avoided. What out for products that are "bleached" white ([Link] wipes, writing paper) and
look for companies that offer the same products which are whitened with peroxide and chlorine
dioxide which is less harmful to the environment.
According to Seventh Generation, "boric acid and pepper sprinkled in places like backs of
cupboards" are effective methods of pest control as a substitute for harmful insecticides and
poisons. As well "planting mint around the house" will help discourage pests from entering your
home. Cedar chips are effective for moth control, and even feeding your dog brewers yeast will
help control fleas.

2-Appliances-
It is very important to keep up on the maintenance of your refrigerator and air conditioners as
they can leak very toxic and harmful chemicals. Furnace maintenance will help to reduce the
amount of heat you need, thus reducing fossil fuel production.

3-Waste and Recycling-

It is very beneficial to use recycled paper or to use products that are manufactured from
ecologically managed forests. According to Seventh Generation "if every household in the US
replaced just one roll of 1000 sheets of toilet paper with recycled toilet paper, could save 373,000
trees, 1.48 million cubic feet of landfill space (equal to over 1682 full garbage trucks), 155
million gallons of water (a years supply for 4465 families of four) and avoid 62,000 pounds of
pollution". It has been said that it takes roughly 19 trees to make one ton of paper and that the
usage of one ton of recycled paper will save approximately 17 trees. Of course there is the
importance of recycling your trash, separating the cans, glasses and papers.

4-Home maintenance-
Due to the harmful process of making fossil fuels, we should do what we can to reduce their
production. Weatherstripping, insulation and proper ventilation will go along way to reducing the
amount of heat your home needs. Use of cold water instead of hot will reduce the amount
of energy needed, as well only running dishwashers and washing machines when full

Composting will help you to dispose of biodegradable waste in your home and planting trees on
your property will enhance the appearance of your home. As well as being visually appealing,
trees help to control carbon dioxides in the air, and helps to dispose of toxins in the soil. Thus
preventing them from being released into the atmosphere.
 Reference:
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