Part 2 Probability
Probability
Math 10
Classical probability
Empirical probability
Part 2
Probability
Maurice Geraghty 2015
Based on mathematical formulas
Based on the relative frequencies of
historical data.
Subjective probability
one-shot educated guess.
Examples of Probability
Classical Probability
What is the probability of rolling a four
on a 6-sided die?
What percentage of De Anza students
live in Cupertino?
What is the chance that the Golden
State Warriors will win the NBA title in
2015?
Event
Outcome
A result of an experiment
A result of the experiment that cannot be broken down into smaller
events
Sample Space
Probability Event Occurs
Example flip two coins, find the probability of exactly 1 head.
The set of all possible outcomes
# of elements in Event / # Elements in Sample Space
{HH, HT, TH, TT}
P(1 head) = 2/4 = .5
Empirical Probability
Historical Data
Relative Frequencies
Example: What is
the chance someone
rates their
community as good
or better?
0.51 + 0.32 = 0.83
National: Rate Your
community
Percentage of Saample
Rule of Complement
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
51
32
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Rating
Maurice Geraghty 2015
Ex
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l
G
oo
d
Fa
ir
Po
or
O
th
er
Complement of an
event
The event does not
occur
A is the
complement of A
P(A) + P(A) =1
P(A) = 1 P(A)
A
A
Part 2 Probability
Additive Rule
Example
The UNION of two events A and B is
that either A or B occur (or both). (All
colored parts)
The INTERSECTION of two events A
and B is that both A and B will occur.
(Purple Part only)
Additive Rule:
P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) P(A and B)
In a group of students, 40% are taking
Math, 20% are taking History.
10% of students are taking both Math
and History.
Find the Probability of a Student taking
either Math or History or both.
P(M or H) = 40% + 20% - 10% = 50%
Mutually Exclusive
Conditional Probability
Mutually Exclusive
Both cannot occur
If A and B are mutuallyy exclusive,, then
P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B)
Example roll a die
A: Roll 2 or less
B: Roll 5 or more
P(A)=2/6 P(B)=2/6
P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) = 4/6
The probability of an event occuring GIVEN another
event has already occurred.
P(A|B) = P(A and B) / P(B)
Example: Of all cell phone users in the US, 15% have a smart
phone with AT&T. 25% of all cell phone users use AT&T. Given
a selected cell phone user has AT&T, find the probability the
user also has a smart phone.
A=AT&T subscriber
B=Smart Phone User
P(A and B) = .15
P(A)=.25
P(B|A) = .15/.25 = .60
Contingency Tables
Contingency Tables
Two data items can be displayed in a
contingency table.
Example: auto accident during
g year and DUI
of driver.
Accident
No Accident
Total
DUI
70
130
200
Non- DUI
30
770
800
Total
100
900
10
Accident
No Accident
Total
DUI
70
130
200
Non- DUI
30
770
800
Total
100
00
900
1000
000
Given the Driver is DUI, find the Probability of an Accident.
A=Accident
P(A and D) = .07
1000
D=DUI
P(D) = .2
P(A|D) = .07/.2 = .35
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Maurice Geraghty 2015
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Part 2 Probability
Multiplicative Rule
Independence
P(A and B) = P(A) x P(B|A)
P(A and B) = P(B) x P(A|B)
Example: A box contains 4 green balls and 3 red
balls. Two balls are drawn. Find the probability of
choosing two red balls.
A=Red Ball on 1st draw B=Red Ball on 2nd Draw
P(A)=3/7 P(B|A)=2/6
P(A and B) = (3/7)(2/6) = 1/7
If A is not dependent on B, then they
are INDEPENDENT events, and the
following statements are true:
P(A|B)=P(A)
P(B|A)=P(B)
P(A and B) = P(A) x P(B)
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Example
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Example
Accident
No Accident
Total
Accident
No Accident
Total
DUI
70
130
200
US Car
60
540
600
Non- DUI
30
770
800
Import Car
40
360
400
Total
100
00
900
1000
000
Total
100
00
900
1000
000
A: Accident
P(A) = .10
D:DUI Driver
A: Accident
P(A) = .10
P(A|D) = .35 (70/200)
U:US Car
P(A|U) = .10 (60/600)
Therefore A and U are INDEPENDENT events as P(A) = P(A|U)
Therefore A and D are DEPENDENT events as P(A) < P(A|D)
Also P(A and U) = P(A)xP(U) = (.1)(.6) = .06
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Random Sample
Tree Diagram method
A random sample is where each
member of the population has an
equally likely chance of being chosen,
and each member of the sample is
INDEPENDENT of all other sampled
data.
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Maurice Geraghty 2015
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Alternative Method of showing
probability
Example:
p Flip
p Three Coins
Example: A Circuit has three switches. If at least two
of the switches function, the Circuit will succeed.
Each switch has a 10% failure rate if all are
operating, and a 20% failure rate if one switch has
already failed. Find the probability the circuit will
succeed.
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Part 2 Probability
Circuit Problem
.9
Switching the Conditionality
Pr(Good)=
.81+.072+.064=.946
.1
A
.1
.9
.8
.8
.81
.2
.2
.8
.018
.064
.016
C
.072
.2
.02
Often there are questions where you desire
to change the conditionality from one variable
to the other variable
First construct a tree diagram.
Second, move the information to a
Contingency Table
From the Contingency table it is easy to
calculate all conditional probabilities.
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Example
Example
10% of prisoners in a Canadian prison are
HIV positive.
A test will correctly detect HIV 95% of the
time, but will incorrectly detect HIV in noninfected prisoners 15% of the time (false
positive).
If a randomly selected prisoner tests positive,
find the probability the prisoner is HIV+
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.1
.9
A
.95
.05
.15
B
.095
.005
.85
.135
.765
A=Prisoner is HIV+
B=Test is Positive for HIV
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Example
HIV+
A
HIVA
Total
Test+
B
.095
.135
.230
TestB
.005
.765
.770
Total
.100
.900
1.000
P( A | B ) =
.095
.413
.230
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Maurice Geraghty 2015
