Reference case

Table A19.Energy-related carbon dioxide emissions by end use

Table A19. (million

Energy-related
carbon dioxide emissions by end use
metric tons)
(million metric tons)
Reference case
Sector and end use
2010

2011

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

Residential
Space heating ........................................................
285.69
274.74
255.95
247.75
241.43
234.50
224.88
Space cooling ........................................................
162.29
158.49
146.49
159.05
173.02
187.28
194.44
Water heating ........................................................
159.50
156.30
155.23
157.27
156.47
154.26
153.31
Refrigeration ..........................................................
66.67
63.92
58.33
59.80
62.44
65.23
66.18
Cooking .................................................................
32.50
31.97
32.51
33.82
35.31
36.76
37.50
Clothes dryers........................................................
37.70
36.32
36.43
38.02
39.80
41.64
42.10
Freezers ................................................................
14.58
14.07
12.72
12.69
12.67
12.72
12.53
Lighting ..................................................................
115.65
108.10
69.37
61.08
57.56
56.74
55.83
Clothes washers1 ...................................................
5.81
5.54
4.19
3.82
3.62
3.70
3.76
Dishwashers1 .........................................................
18.27
17.62
15.99
16.02
16.94
18.21
18.93
2
Televisions and related equipment .......................
56.31
54.02
53.97
57.27
60.97
64.92
66.79
Computers and related equipment3 .......................
28.12
26.74
20.20
18.98
18.84
18.91
18.42
Furnace fans and boiler circulation pumps ............
23.83
22.95
21.43
21.52
21.61
21.64
20.96
Other uses .............................................................
206.69
192.29
178.57
197.45
216.66
235.95
254.42
Discrepancy4 ..........................................................
13.90
-0.72
-0.66
-0.60
-0.55
-0.49
-0.45
Total residential ................................................ 1,227.53 1,162.33 1,060.73 1,083.95 1,116.78 1,151.98 1,169.60

-0.7%
0.7%
-0.1%
0.1%
0.6%
0.5%
-0.4%
-2.3%
-1.3%
0.2%
0.7%
-1.3%
-0.3%
1.0%
-1.6%
0.0%

Commercial
Space heating5 ......................................................
129.14
Space cooling5 .......................................................
100.98
Water heating5 .......................................................
41.26
Ventilation ..............................................................
86.72
Cooking .................................................................
13.53
Lighting ..................................................................
170.14
Refrigeration ..........................................................
68.65
Office equipment (PC) ...........................................
37.41
Office equipment (non-PC) ....................................
40.15
Other uses6 ............................................................
346.27
Total commercial .............................................. 1,034.26

-0.6%
-0.4%
0.1%
0.1%
0.4%
-0.8%
-0.5%
-0.3%
0.6%
1.3%
0.3%

125.16
99.43
41.42
84.34
13.60
159.77
64.87
34.69
38.30
330.16
991.74

120.43
83.32
42.51
82.87
14.12
137.50
54.38
29.46
37.97
354.48
957.03

116.90
113.92
110.05
104.21
85.01
86.89
89.61
89.71
43.21
43.77
43.83
42.91
85.39
87.72
89.24
87.81
14.39
14.79
15.11
15.10
137.62
137.71
134.23
127.51
54.23
55.14
56.54
56.50
29.97
31.21
31.99
31.91
40.72
43.33
45.18
45.13
384.84
417.63
455.24
486.52
992.28 1,032.11 1,071.02 1,087.30

Industrial7
Manufacturing
Refining ..............................................................
261.87
256.26
245.90
249.79
254.75
261.90
270.14
Food products .....................................................
99.97
99.13
103.10
107.71
110.82
113.57
115.35
Paper products ...................................................
77.52
71.94
69.45
70.41
70.83
71.37
72.28
Bulk chemicals ....................................................
259.35
246.50
257.53
256.29
241.10
227.51
214.99
Glass ..................................................................
19.21
18.88
22.35
24.03
24.70
24.88
25.48
Cement manufacturing .......................................
26.02
26.85
39.05
39.26
39.72
41.88
44.97
Iron and steel ......................................................
118.17
123.07
147.83
143.48
125.21
111.79
106.29
Aluminum ............................................................
44.84
46.19
56.02
57.93
50.38
43.21
34.05
Fabricated metal products ..................................
37.67
39.72
39.70
39.25
37.79
37.42
37.35
Machinery ...........................................................
23.70
25.44
28.77
29.63
29.82
30.32
31.47
Computers and electronics .................................
31.55
29.96
32.14
33.80
34.77
36.31
37.13
Transportation equipment ...................................
47.09
50.85
61.43
65.04
68.29
72.17
73.71
Electrical equipment ...........................................
8.02
7.98
8.86
9.07
9.17
9.73
10.47
Wood products....................................................
17.11
16.80
21.91
22.06
21.26
20.68
19.87
Plastics ...............................................................
39.27
40.00
38.28
38.25
38.44
37.97
36.39
Balance of manufacturing ...................................
141.86
139.34
146.13
155.71
162.73
171.45
180.33
Total manufacturing ......................................... 1,253.22 1,238.92 1,318.46 1,341.71 1,319.77 1,312.15 1,310.27
Nonmanufacturing
Agriculture...........................................................
72.17
68.36
68.84
68.02
67.75
67.61
67.44
Construction........................................................
69.98
66.71
92.16
92.34
93.37
95.63
99.14
Mining .................................................................
55.72
55.52
57.67
55.57
53.64
53.07
51.75
Total nonmanufacturing ...................................
197.87
190.59
218.67
215.93
214.76
216.31
218.33
Discrepancy4 ..........................................................
45.06
42.57
68.69
73.07
73.73
78.98
86.73
Total industrial .................................................. 1,496.14 1,472.08 1,605.81 1,630.71 1,608.26 1,607.44 1,615.33

Energy Information Administration / Annual Energy Outlook 2013

150

Annual
growth
2011-2040
(percent)

U.S. Energy Information Administration | Annual Energy Outlook 2013

0.2%
0.5%
0.0%
-0.5%
1.0%
1.8%
-0.5%
-1.0%
-0.2%
0.7%
0.7%
1.3%
0.9%
0.6%
-0.3%
0.9%
0.2%
-0.0%
1.4%
-0.2%
0.5%
2.5%
0.3%

Reference case

Table A19.Energy-related carbon dioxide emissions by end use (continued)

Table A19. (million

Energy-related
carbon dioxide emissions by end use (continued)
metric tons)
(million metric tons)
Reference case
Sector and end use
2010

2011

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

Transportation
Light-duty vehicles ................................................. 1,059.53 1,036.67
929.21
870.47
824.70
804.78
804.29
Commercial light trucks8 ........................................
38.08
37.35
37.93
36.83
35.97
36.60
38.70
Bus transportation..................................................
17.81
17.20
17.55
17.79
17.96
18.08
18.27
Freight trucks .........................................................
350.67
352.73
430.98
442.74
450.92
471.42
502.86
Rail, passenger ......................................................
5.63
5.54
5.74
6.04
6.33
6.66
6.81
Rail, freight.............................................................
33.43
32.40
35.40
37.59
38.96
39.97
40.76
Shipping, domestic ................................................
15.77
15.75
18.43
17.91
17.12
17.12
17.18
Shipping, international ...........................................
66.38
62.27
63.27
63.88
64.50
65.06
65.55
Recreational boats .................................................
16.94
16.30
17.08
17.69
18.28
18.78
19.13
Air ..........................................................................
178.28
174.72
187.90
193.68
197.37
199.69
202.49
Military use.............................................................
54.58
52.66
45.19
46.04
48.49
51.34
54.59
Lubricants ..............................................................
5.24
4.95
4.50
4.56
4.62
4.69
4.78
Pipeline fuel ...........................................................
36.30
37.11
37.76
38.73
39.33
40.34
41.19
Discrepancy4 ..........................................................
-2.97
-1.06
0.04
0.54
1.10
1.69
2.26
Total transportation .......................................... 1,875.67 1,844.58 1,830.99 1,794.48 1,765.65 1,776.24 1,818.85
Biogenic energy combustion9
Biomass .................................................................
Electric power sector ..........................................
Other sectors ......................................................
Biogenic waste.......................................................
Biofuels heat and coproducts ................................
Ethanol ..................................................................
Biodiesel ................................................................
Liquids from biomass .............................................
Renewable diesel and gasoline .............................
Total ...................................................................

189.40
18.52
170.88
4.37
80.21
74.92
2.42
0.00
0.50
351.81

194.39
17.81
176.57
4.90
63.03
74.85
8.63
0.00
0.20
346.01

254.82
60.15
194.68
6.22
76.56
95.83
11.55
1.47
1.81
448.26

282.24
74.35
207.89
6.22
76.49
92.45
11.68
3.15
1.82
474.05

290.63
71.05
219.58
6.23
79.37
88.48
11.66
7.35
1.82
485.54

305.61
72.79
232.82
6.23
91.26
85.70
11.66
20.07
1.82
522.35

332.19
82.99
249.20
6.23
128.24
86.13
11.68
55.90
1.81
622.19

Annual
growth
2011-2040
(percent)

-0.9%
0.1%
0.2%
1.2%
0.7%
0.8%
0.3%
0.2%
0.6%
0.5%
0.1%
-0.1%
0.4%
--0.0%
1.9%
5.4%
1.2%
0.8%
2.5%
0.5%
1.0%
-7.9%
2.0%

Does not include water heating portion of load.

Includes televisions, set-top boxes, and video game consoles.
Includes desktop and laptop computers, monitors, printers, speakers, networking equipment, and uninterruptible power supplies.
4
Represents differences between total emissions by end-use and total emissions by fuel as reported in Table A18. Emissions by fuel may reflect benchmarking
and other modeling adjustments to energy use and the associated emissions that are not assigned to specific end uses.
5
Includes emissions related to fuel consumption for district services.
6
Includes (but is not limited to) miscellaneous uses such as transformers, medical imaging and other medical equipment, elevators, escalators, off-road electric
vehicles, laboratory fume hoods, laundry equipment, coffee brewers, water services, pumps, emergency generators, combined heat and power in commercial
buildings, manufacturing performed in commercial buildings, and cooking (distillate), plus residual fuel oil, liquefied petroleum gases, coal, motor gasoline,
kerosene, and marketed renewable fuels (biomass).
7
Includes combined heat and power plants that have a non-regulatory status, and small on-site generating systems.
8
Commercial trucks 8,501 to 10,000 pounds gross vehicle weight rating.
9
By convention, the direct emissions from biogenic energy sources are excluded from energy-related carbon dioxide emissions. The release of carbon from
these sources is assumed to be balanced by the uptake of carbon when the feedstock is grown, resulting in zero net emissions over some period of time. If,
however, increased use of biomass energy results in a decline in terrestrial carbon stocks, a net positive release of carbon may occur. Accordingly, the emissions
from biogenic energy sources are reported here as an indication of the potential net release of carbon dioxide in the absence of offsetting sequestration.
- - = Not applicable.
Note: Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding. Data for 2010 and 2011 are model results and may differ slightly from official EIA
data reports.
Sources: 2010 and 2011 emissions and emission factors: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), Annual Energy Review 2011, DOE/EIA-0384(2011)
(Washington, DC, September 2012). 2010 emissions: EIA, Monthly Energy Review, DOE/EIA-0035(2011/10) (Washington, DC, October 2011). 2011 emissions
and emission factors: EIA, Monthly Energy Review, DOE/EIA-0035(2012/08) (Washington, DC, August 2012). Projections: EIA, AEO2013 National Energy
Modeling System run REF2013.D102312A.
2
3

Energy Information Administration / Annual Energy Outlook 2013

U.S. Energy Information Administration | Annual Energy Outlook 2013

151