[Link].

com/economics

TD Economics
Weekly Commodity Price Report
January 19, 2009

HIGHLIGHTS

• The TDCI in U.S. dollars sank 8.8% last week, as com- • While all base metals lost ground last week, nickel
modity prices were down across the board. An 11.5% prices led the way with a 14.5% slump. The decline
decline in energy prices led the way, followed by a was prompted by speculation that stainless steel pro-
6.7% drop in base metals prices. The index in Cana- duction – which accounts for about two thirds of all
dian dollars fared a little better, falling by a lesser 5%. nickel demand – will fall for a third straight year in
• After rising for two consecutive weeks, crude oil prices 2009, as producers draw down inventories and demand
plunged 17% to US$35 per barrel. Oil demand fore- remains sluggish.
casts from the EIA, OPEC and IEA were revised down- • The agricultural sub-index slipped 3.8% on the week,
wards last week, which in addition to more dismal eco- led by an 8% drop in barley prices. Saudi Arabia –
nomic data from the U.S., trumped the news that Saudi one of the world’s largest barley importers – reduced
Arabia would produce less than the mandated quota import subsidies by about 60%, thereby reducing de-
in February. mand for the grain.
• Natural gas prices were also hit last week, falling by • Precious metals prices tumbled 3% last week as the
nearly 8%. Despite near-record low temperatures in U.S. dollar strengthened and on fears that the reces-
the U.S., the rise in residential natural gas demand sion will dampen demand for commodities – including
has not been enough to offset the decline in industrial precious metals. Gold prices fell by 3%, while silver
demand and dent storage levels. In fact, U.S. invento- prices dropped 2.6%.
ries are 1% above 2007’s elevated levels and 3% higher
Dina Cover 416-982-2555
than the 5-year average.

SUMMARY FOR WEEK ENDING FRIDAY, JAN 16th

LATEST WK PRIOR WK % CHG. 1-WK % CHG. 4-WKS % CHG. 52-WKS 52-WK HIGH 52-WK-LOW
TDCI US$ Index (1997=100) 166.7 182.7 -8.8 -3.4 -42.4 405.5 162.2
US$ Sub-Indices
Forest Products 93.1 94.2 -1.1 -2.5 -4.8 109.0 93.1
Energy 200.2 226.1 -11.5 -5.3 -47.4 602.7 190.6
Non-Prec. Metals & Minerals 141.6 151.7 -6.7 3.3 -51.2 329.1 137.0
Precious Metals 245.7 253.6 -3.1 -2.4 -11.2 309.3 219.1
Agricultural Products 140.7 146.1 -3.8 0.7 -27.9 264.8 133.3
Biggest Movers this Week (per cent)
↓ Wheat 334.71 347.34 -3.6 0.6 -35.0 787.1 306.8
↓ Uranium 51.00 53.00 -3.8 -3.8 -43.0 86.0 44.0
↓ Hogs 60.96 63.59 -4.1 -2.5 11.6 86.4 54.7
↓ Aluminum 65.73 69.81 -5.8 1.1 -40.4 145.6 65.0
↓ Natural Gas 5.40 5.85 -7.7 -4.7 -35.0 13.2 5.4
↓ Barley 133.03 144.44 -7.9 -2.7 -36.8 255.9 127.0
↓ Nickel 4.74 5.55 -14.5 7.7 -62.7 14.8 4.2
↓ Crude Oil 36.91 44.51 -17.1 -6.9 -59.7 142.5 32.4

Weekly Commodity Price Report 1 January 19, 2009

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TD COMMODITY PRICE INDEX (TDCI) TDCI - ENERGY

Index, 1997=100 Index, 1997=100
430 700

380 600
Overall TDCI
330
500
280
400
230
300
180
TDCI Ex. Energy 200
130

80 100
Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08 Dec-08 Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08 Dec-08

Last week plotted: Jan 16, 2008. Source: TD Economics. Last week plotted: Jan 16, 2008. Source: GlobalCoal, WSJ / Haver Analytics.

TDCI- NON-PRECIOUS METALS & MINERALS TDCI - PRECIOUS METALS

Index, 1997=100 Index, 1997=100
350 350

300 300

250 250

200 200

150 150

100 100
Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08 Dec-08 Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08 Dec-08
Last week plotted: Jan 16, 2008. Source: FT / Haver Analytics, Ux Weekly. Last week plotted: Jan 16, 2008. Source: WSJ / Haver Analytics.

TDCI - FOREST PRODUCTS TDCI - AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS

Index, 1997=100 Index, 1997=100
110 300

108 280

106 260

104 240

102 220

100 200

98 180

96 160

94 140

92 120

90 100
Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Sep-08 Dec-08 Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Sep-08 Dec-08

Last week plotted: Jan 16, 2008. Source: Random Lengths, Pulp & Paper Weekly. Last week plotted: Jan 16, 2008. Source: WCE, WSJ / Haver Analytics.

Weekly Commodity Price Report 2 January 19, 2009

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TD COMMODITY PRICE INDICES (TDCI)

US$ SUB-INDICES C$ SUB-INDICES
TDCI- TDCI-
US$ NON- C$ NON-
TDCI- INDEX FOREST PREC- PREC AGRI. TDCI- INDEX FOREST PREC- PREC AGRI.
US$ ex- PROD- IOUS METALS PROD- C$ ex- PROD- IOUS METALS PROD-
1997=100 INDEX energy UCTS ENERGY METALS & MIN. UCTS INDEX energy UCTS ENERGY METALS & MIN. UCTS C$/ US$
ANNUAL AVG
2003 140.8 92.9 83.8 184.4 108.6 98.2 99.2 197.6 130.4 117.6 258.7 152.4 137.7 139.2 1.40
2004 168.6 114.2 100.4 218.0 125.1 135.1 105.2 219.3 148.5 130.6 283.6 162.8 175.8 136.8 1.30
2005 222.9 123.2 102.1 313.4 136.2 158.3 105.6 270.0 149.3 123.6 379.6 164.9 191.8 127.9 1.21
2006 227.3 158.9 101.8 289.4 188.4 255.6 110.6 257.7 180.2 115.5 328.2 213.7 289.9 125.5 1.13
2007 252.1 189.9 98.0 308.6 217.3 337.8 141.2 270.0 204.2 105.3 329.7 232.4 364.1 150.4 1.07
2008 294.5 173.9 101.6 404.0 267.6 245.1 181.4 310.5 184.3 109.0 425.0 285.3 257.7 192.0 1.07
YTD 2009 175.4 132.3 94.1 214.6 253.2 144.9 143.2 212.9 160.7 114.2 260.4 307.4 175.8 173.9 1.21

WEEKLY AVG
03-Oct-08 272.6 161.1 106.4 373.8 262.1 212.7 153.2 289.9 171.4 113.2 397.6 278.7 226.2 163.0 1.06
10-Oct-08 249.4 152.4 105.0 337.4 264.7 190.6 143.2 282.8 172.9 119.1 382.7 300.2 216.2 162.4 1.13
17-Oct-08 232.6 144.9 103.3 312.4 243.2 177.6 138.4 274.2 170.7 121.7 368.1 286.7 209.3 163.1 1.18
24-Oct-08 220.5 135.8 102.1 297.4 223.0 157.4 136.1 273.4 168.4 126.6 368.7 276.4 195.1 168.7 1.24
31-Oct-08 215.4 137.6 101.3 286.2 220.9 163.6 138.6 269.6 172.1 126.7 358.1 276.4 204.8 173.5 1.25
07-Nov-08 217.3 137.5 100.8 289.9 222.6 162.4 140.7 254.7 161.1 118.1 339.8 260.9 190.4 165.0 1.17
14-Nov-08 209.0 135.6 100.5 275.6 219.1 157.4 141.6 254.6 165.2 122.5 335.8 266.9 191.7 172.5 1.22
21-Nov-08 200.6 134.1 100.8 261.0 222.8 153.5 136.5 250.8 167.7 126.0 326.4 278.6 191.9 170.7 1.25
28-Nov-08 201.1 136.0 99.9 260.3 243.0 154.2 137.5 247.4 167.3 122.9 320.2 299.0 189.7 169.1 1.23
05-Dec-08 188.1 130.7 99.1 240.2 228.2 145.1 133.3 236.6 164.4 124.6 302.1 286.9 182.5 167.6 1.26
12-Dec-08 178.4 129.3 97.0 223.1 237.5 140.2 134.0 222.6 161.3 121.0 278.2 296.2 174.9 167.2 1.25
19-Dec-08 172.6 129.8 95.5 211.5 251.7 137.0 139.6 210.2 158.1 116.3 257.5 306.4 166.8 170.0 1.22
26-Dec-08 162.2 130.8 95.1 190.6 256.0 138.0 142.5 197.3 159.2 115.7 232.0 311.5 168.0 173.4 1.22
02-Jan-09 176.9 132.2 94.9 217.5 260.3 141.3 142.9 215.5 161.0 115.6 264.9 317.0 172.1 174.0 1.22
09-Jan-09 182.7 135.0 94.2 226.1 253.6 151.7 146.1 217.1 160.4 111.9 268.6 301.3 180.2 173.6 1.19
16-Jan-09 166.7 129.8 93.1 200.2 245.7 141.6 140.7 206.2 160.6 115.2 247.7 304.0 175.2 174.0 1.24

Latest week, % chg. from

Week ago -8.8 -3.8 -1.1 -11.5 -3.1 -6.7 -3.8 -5.0 0.2 3.0 -7.8 0.9 -2.8 0.2 4.1
4 weeks ago -3.4 0.0 -2.5 -5.3 -2.4 3.3 0.7 -1.9 1.6 -0.9 -3.8 -0.8 5.0 2.4 1.6
52 weeks ago -42.4 -31.4 -4.8 -47.4 -11.2 -51.2 -27.9 -30.4 -17.1 15.0 -36.5 7.3 -41.1 -12.9 20.8
% Chg. YTD -39.1 -29.1 -4.1 -43.6 -6.3 -49.9 -22.8 -26.7 -14.7 15.5 -32.1 12.8 -39.7 -7.0 20.4
52-week low 162.2 129.3 93.1 190.6 219.1 137.0 133.3 197.3 158.1 95.9 232.0 248.7 166.8 162.4 0.98
52-week high 405.5 210.4 109.0 602.7 309.3 329.1 264.8 413.0 208.2 126.7 613.9 317.0 325.7 260.6 1.26
FORECAST
Annual 2009 166.4 125.3 94.2 203.7 232.5 138.6 122.2 206.7 155.7 117.1 253.0 288.8 172.2 151.8 1.24
Annual 2010 219.7 141.5 100.8 290.6 224.8 177.0 136.4 249.5 160.8 114.5 330.1 255.5 201.0 154.9 1.14
Dec 2009 183.8 130.6 95.1 232.1 240.7 150.7 125.0 202.2 143.7 104.6 255.3 264.8 165.8 137.5 1.10
Dec 2010 237.3 148.1 105.1 318.3 211.8 192.6 143.1 265.7 165.8 117.8 356.5 237.2 215.7 160.3 1.12

Weekly Commodity Price Report 3 January 19, 2009

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COMMODITY PRICES*: AVERAGE LEVELS (1)

FOREST PRODUCTS ENERGY PRECIOUS METALS
LUMBER PULP NEWSPRINT OIL NAT GAS COAL GOLD SILVER
ANNUAL AVG
2003 309.09 554.62 504.81 31.16 5.51 28.13 365.38 4.95
2004 405.08 642.12 552.02 41.69 5.88 55.19 409.41 6.71
2005 387.35 646.27 611.86 56.85 8.92 48.91 445.46 7.36
2006 327.02 721.83 666.83 66.12 6.74 50.29 604.03 11.58
2007 283.79 821.12 593.58 72.74 6.98 65.69 699.01 13.44
2008 253.33 863.98 700.77 100.15 8.88 128.96 872.53 15.05
YTD 2009 206.33 728.09 765.00 41.31 5.63 80.70 849.74 10.99

WEEKLY AVG
03-Oct-08 260.00 871.60 765.00 96.68 7.30 121.17 869.90 12.54
10-Oct-08 252.00 860.81 765.00 86.23 6.69 111.90 887.95 11.55
17-Oct-08 240.00 851.26 765.00 75.21 6.67 104.70 819.60 10.17
24-Oct-08 232.00 844.43 765.00 68.18 6.73 96.00 748.70 9.63
31-Oct-08 225.00 842.27 765.00 65.68 6.43 100.83 742.20 9.48
07-Nov-08 220.00 831.87 775.00 64.31 6.74 104.02 742.85 10.19
14-Nov-08 221.00 824.41 775.00 58.64 6.65 104.00 734.50 9.61
21-Nov-08 224.00 823.18 775.00 52.34 6.68 85.69 749.30 9.49
28-Nov-08 226.00 799.55 775.00 52.50 6.66 78.19 817.10 10.38
05-Dec-08 225.00 793.64 765.00 45.50 6.44 76.09 769.30 9.49
12-Dec-08 221.00 758.90 765.00 44.71 5.69 78.25 798.30 10.17
19-Dec-08 213.00 743.75 765.00 39.65 5.67 77.81 845.05 10.87
26-Dec-08 210.00 742.21 765.00 32.37 5.42 80.56 859.94 11.01
02-Jan-09 209.00 740.01 765.00 42.50 5.66 79.19 874.83 11.15
09-Jan-09 207.00 728.77 765.00 44.51 5.85 81.44 850.65 11.06
16-Jan-09 203.00 715.50 765.00 36.91 5.40 81.46 823.75 10.77

Latest week, % chg. from

Week ago -1.9 -1.8 0.0 -17.1 -7.7 0.0 -3.2 -2.6
4 weeks ago -4.7 -3.8 0.0 -6.9 -4.7 4.7 -2.5 -1.0
52 weeks ago -20.7 -18.3 27.5 -59.7 -35.0 -9.3 -8.0 -33.1
% Chg. YTD -20.8 -16.4 27.5 -56.4 -29.0 -10.7 -2.7 -30.1
52-week low 207.00 728.77 600.00 32.37 5.42 76.09 734.50 9.48
52-week high 285.00 890.30 775.00 142.46 13.19 194.79 982.65 20.20
FORECAST
Annual Avg 2009 225.00 726.25 730.00 36.25 5.73 60.00 785.00 9.54
Annual Avg 2010 292.50 762.50 683.75 66.25 6.63 91.25 751.25 10.14
Dec 2009 250.00 720.00 700.00 45.00 6.15 65.00 815.00 9.60
Dec 2010 325.00 790.00 675.00 75.00 7.00 100.00 700.00 10.50

*MEASURES & QUOTED PRICES ( $ is US$ unless stated otherwise; WEIGHT

C$ prices converted to US$ using daily C$/US$ exchange rate ). ( per cent )
FOREST PRODUCTS 21.1
Lumber: Random Lengths' Framing Lumber Composite ($/1000 Bd Ft) 9.5
Pulp: NBSK, delivered in east U.S. ($/mt) 5.7
Newsprint: New York ($/mt) 5.9
ENERGY 52.4
Oil: Domestic Spot Market Price: West Texas Intermediate, Cushing ($/Barrel) 23.6
Natural Gas: Henry Hub, LA ($/mmbtu) 27.2
Coal: Austr. Therm ($/mt) 1.6
PRECIOUS METALS 4.5
Silver: Cash price: Silver, Troy Oz, Handy & Harman Base Price ($/Troy oz) 0.5
Gold: Cash Price: London Gold Bullion, PM Fix ($/Troy oz) 4.0
Sources: WSJ, FT, Ux Weekly, Random Lenghts, Pulp & Paper Weekly, Overall TDCI weights based on
GlobalCoal, Comtex, WCE, FRBNY / Haver Analytics. Canadian exports 2003-05

Weekly Commodity Price Report 4 January 19, 2009

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COMMODITY PRICES**: AVERAGE LEVELS (2)

NON-PRECIOUS METALS & MINERALS AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS
ALUM COPPER NICKEL ZINC URANIUM WHEAT BARLEY CANOLA CATTLE HOGS
ANNUAL AVG
2003 65.16 81.53 4.47 37.81 11.71 177.34 104.35 272.34 82.87 55.72
2004 78.13 130.92 6.25 47.74 18.80 186.84 98.89 282.81 81.45 53.26
2005 86.22 167.60 6.69 62.90 29.06 197.76 91.41 238.41 87.24 68.41
2006 116.49 305.10 11.01 148.56 47.77 216.58 108.71 268.54 86.19 64.19
2007 119.49 322.97 16.82 146.82 98.72 302.78 175.70 396.64 93.95 65.53
2008 117.00 316.94 9.61 85.33 63.76 455.65 202.26 530.68 93.81 66.13
YTD 2009 67.29 141.95 5.06 54.55 52.33 342.03 139.02 363.39 85.39 61.43

WEEKLY AVG
3-Oct-08 106.81 286.29 7.15 74.23 53.00 342.45 174.50 407.81 98.40 67.85
10-Oct-08 100.74 248.11 6.04 66.58 49.00 319.68 156.94 369.35 92.59 66.79
17-Oct-08 97.83 229.44 5.36 59.11 46.00 313.49 152.22 346.38 90.43 61.29
24-Oct-08 89.91 193.74 4.44 50.47 44.00 306.81 149.06 344.16 91.15 57.43
31-Oct-08 90.82 188.00 5.24 51.39 45.00 319.70 149.60 343.97 90.57 57.49
7-Nov-08 89.79 180.59 5.27 50.46 46.00 318.45 161.42 370.84 93.53 54.74
14-Nov-08 86.14 168.71 4.98 51.05 48.00 329.71 153.81 354.67 91.99 55.50
21-Nov-08 81.48 159.26 4.60 52.31 53.00 318.90 143.80 344.70 86.79 55.67
28-Nov-08 78.63 165.72 4.56 55.23 55.00 321.46 142.34 343.10 86.71 57.99
5-Dec-08 71.74 153.85 4.24 51.93 55.00 316.95 127.71 309.23 84.47 58.14
12-Dec-08 66.96 142.00 4.40 48.90 54.00 319.99 127.01 319.83 83.19 58.12
19-Dec-08 64.99 134.31 4.41 48.17 53.00 332.63 136.66 334.59 85.00 62.50
26-Dec-08 67.71 128.93 4.41 50.81 53.00 341.82 140.85 344.95 86.33 61.08
2-Jan-09 66.34 131.84 4.89 51.44 53.00 344.04 139.60 351.23 86.13 59.73
9-Jan-09 69.81 147.63 5.55 56.73 53.00 347.34 144.44 375.80 86.47 63.59
16-Jan-09 65.73 146.38 4.74 55.47 51.00 334.71 133.03 363.14 83.59 60.96

Latest week, % chg. from

Week ago -5.8 -0.8 -14.5 -2.2 -3.8 -3.6 -7.9 -3.4 -3.3 -4.1
4 weeks ago 1.1 9.0 7.7 15.1 -3.8 0.6 -2.7 8.5 -1.7 -2.5
52 weeks ago -40.4 -54.9 -62.7 -46.6 -43.0 -35.0 -36.8 -36.3 -7.9 11.6
% Chg. YTD -38.6 -55.4 -60.1 -49.7 -41.7 -30.4 -25.3 -24.9 -8.5 9.8
52-week low 64.99 128.93 4.24 48.17 44.00 306.81 127.01 309.23 83.19 54.63
52-week high 145.55 398.07 14.81 124.51 89.50 787.06 255.90 730.62 103.38 86.44
FORECAST
Annual Avg 2009 66.25 141.25 4.79 45.50 48.75 270.00 132.50 320.00 83.25 52.50
Annual Avg 2010 91.25 166.25 5.99 61.25 61 286.25 151.50 342.50 97.00 69.25
Dec 2009 75.00 150.00 5.15 48.00 52.00 270.00 140.00 325.00 88.00 55.00
Dec 2010 100.00 180.00 6.50 70.00 65.00 300.00 158.00 350.00 102.00 75.00

**MEASURES & QUOTED PRICES ( $ is US$ unless stated otherwise; WEIGHT

C$ prices converted to US$ using daily C$/US$ exchange rate ). ( per cent )
NON-PRECIOUS METALS & MINERALS 14.7
Aluminum: LME Aluminum, 99.7% Purity: Closing Cash Price (Cents/lb) 6.6
Copper: LME Copper, Grade A: Closing Cash Price (Cents/lb) 2.6
Nickel: LME Nickel: Closing Cash Price ($/lb) 3.4
Zinc: LME Zinc: Closing Cash Price (Cents/lb) 1.0
Uranium: Ux U308 ($/lb) 1.1
AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS 7.3
Wheat: 1 CWRS, Canada: St Lawrence, 13.5% (C$/mt) 2.8
Barley: Canada: Cash Prices: Feed Barley: Lethbridge: Grade 1 CW (C$/mt) 0.3
Canola: Canada: Cash Pr: Canola: Instore Vancouver: Grade 1 Canada NCC (C$/mt) 1.2
Cattle: Live Cattle Futures Price: 1st Expiring Contract Open (Cents/lb) 1.8
Hogs: Lean Hogs Futures Price: 1st Expiring Contract Open (Cents/lb) 1.2
Sources: WSJ, FT, Ux Weekly, Random Lenghts, Pulp & Paper Weekly, Overall TDCI weights based on
GlobalCoal, Comtex, WCE, FRBNY / Haver Analytics. Canadian exports 2003-05

Weekly Commodity Price Report 5 January 19, 2009

 [Link]/economics

This report is provided by TD Economics for customers of TD Bank Financial Group. It is for information purposes only and may not
be appropriate for other purposes. The report does not provide material information about the business and affairs of TD Bank
Financial Group and the members of TD Economics are not spokespersons for TD Bank Financial Group with respect to its
business and affairs. The information contained in this report has been drawn from sources believed to be reliable, but is not
guaranteed to be accurate or complete. The report contains economic analysis and views, including about future economic and
financial markets performance. These are based on certain assumptions and other factors, and are subject to inherent risks and
uncertainties. The actual outcome may be materially different. The Toronto-Dominion Bank and its affiliates and related entities that
comprise TD Bank Financial Group are not liable for any errors or omissions in the information, analysis or views contained in this
report, or for any loss or damage suffered.

Weekly Commodity Price Report 6 January 19, 2009