InFO
Information for Operators
U.S. Department
of Transportation
Federal Aviation
Administration
InFO 07015
DATE: 7/3/2007
Flight Standards Service
Washington, DC
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An InFO contains valuable information for operators that should help them meet certain administrative, regulatory,
or operational requirements with relatively low urgency or impact on safety.
Subject: Flight Risk Assessment Tool
Purpose: This InFO describes the proactive identification of possible hazards and the use of risk
management tools to mitigate risks as aspects of a Safety Management System (SMS). These
tools will provide ways for air operators to determine which flights have more risk and allow
operators to intervene and reduce risk when possible. Risk assessment tools are only part of an
SMS and should not be considered the whole system.
Background: Over the years the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) and the aviation
industry have dramatically increased the safety of air travel by managing and mitigating risks
associated with flight. The aviation industry currently provides the safest form of transportation
in the United States. However, the industry continues to have some accidents that can be
prevented. Therefore, both the FAA and industry are working to continually improve the safety
record of turbine-powered aircraft. Over the next few years, the FAA will encourage operators
and certificate holders to develop Safety Management Systems (SMS). This safety protocol is
described in Advisory Circular (AC) 120-92, Introduction to Safety Management Systems for
Air Operators.
The Turbine Aircraft Operations Subgroup as part of the General Aviation Joint Steering
Committee has developed a risk assessment tool for use in flight operations. In creating this tool,
the Turbine Aircraft Operations Subgroup reviewed accident data, identified hazards, and used
normal risk assessment development methodology. This tool provides a simple way to
implement proactive risk management. An operator can use the risk assessment tool as a standalone tool but incorporating it into an SMS is preferable.
Discussion: As discussed in AC 120-92, a hazard is defined as any existing or potential
condition that can lead to injury, illness, or death to people; damage to or loss of a system,
equipment, or property; or damage to the environment. A hazard is a condition that is a
prerequisite of an accident or incident.
Every flight has hazards and some level of risk associated with it. It is critical that operators and
pilots are able to differentiate, in advance, between a low risk flight and a high risk flight, and
then establish a review process and develop risk mitigation strategies to address flights
Approved by: AFS-200
throughout that range. A risk assessment tool should allow operators and pilots to see the risk
profile of a flight in its planning stages. Each operator should determine an acceptable level of
risk for its flights based on the type of operation, environment, aircraft used, crew training, and
overall operating experience. When the risk for a flight exceeds the acceptable level, the hazards
associated with that risk should be further evaluated and the risk reduced. A higher risk flight
should not be operated if the hazards cannot be mitigated to an acceptable level.
The attached risk assessment tool has been developed for use in understanding different levels of
flight risk and to allow operators and pilots to become familiar with this element of an SMS. It is
important for operators to understand that risk has several elements that must be considered,
including probability, severity, and weighted value. What is the probability of a particular event
occurring? If the event does occur, what is the severity likely to be? And what is the weighted
value of this type of event compared to other aspects of the operation? In the attached risk
assessment tool, this work has been done so the operator has a simplified form of the tool. Each
operator may want to add items that are unique to its operation using the additional resources
provided. An operator can also change any item currently used in the tool provided it conducts a
realistic assessment of the hazard being changed.
To use the tool, the operator will need to create numerical thresholds that trigger additional levels
of scrutiny prior to a go/no-go decision for the flight. These thresholds should be created to help
ensure that the safety standards of each individual operation are maintained. However, it is
important that the operator create realistic thresholds. If every flight is within the acceptable
range under any condition, it is likely that the thresholds have not been set correctly. Small
operations (for example, where the pilot is also the chief pilot and owner) should consider
strategies for appropriate consideration of elevated risk that best fit their operation.
Recommended Action: The FAA recommends that operators and pilots familiarize themselves
with the attached risk assessment tool and AC 120-92. They should then decide whether to use
the tool as published or to modify it as needed for their own operations. Once an operator has
established the parameters of the tool, it should create operational thresholds and begin using the
tool to establish a risk number for each flight. This risk number should be used to control risk
before a flight takes place. Over time this tool will become unique to each operator and can
become a part of its complete SMS. The risk assessment tool cannot guarantee a safe flight
safety is ultimately the responsibility of the pilot and operator. However, it does provide an
additional tool to help the pilot and operator make sound safety decisions.
Flight Risk Assessment Tool
Date:
Release/Trip #:
Tail #:
Pilot Qualifications and Experience
1
Captain with less than 200 hours in type
2
First Officer with less than 200 hours in type
3
Single Pilot Flight
4
Captain with less than 100 hours last 90 days
Approved by: AFS-200
Departure:
Destination:
Risk
Value
5
5
5
3
Flight
Value
5
6
7
First Officer with less than 100 hours last 90 days
Duty day greater than 12 hours
Flight time (Greater than 8 hours in the duty day)
3
4
4
Crew Rest (Less than 10 hours prior to the duty day)
Total Factor Score - Section 1
Operating Environment
9
VOR/GPS/LOC/ADF (Best approach available w/o vertical guidance)
10 Circling approach (best available approach)
11 No published approaches
12 Mountainous airport
13 Control tower not operational at ETA or ETD
14 Uncontrolled airport
15 Alternate airport not selected
16 Elevation of primary airport greater than 5000 ft. MSL)
17 Wet runway
18 Contaminated runway
19 Winter operation
20 Twilight operation
21 Night operation
22 Stopping distance greater than 80% of available runway
23 Repositioning flight (no passengers or cargo)
24 Pop up trip (Less than 4 hours crew notice)
25 International operation
26 No weather reporting at destination
27 Thunderstorms at departure and/or destination
28 Severe turbulence
29 Ceiling & visibility at destination less than 500 ft. / 2 sm
30 Heavy rain at departure and/or destination
31 Frozen precipitation at departure and/or destination
32 Icing (moderate-severe)
33 Surface winds greater than 30 knots
34 Crosswinds greater than 15 knots
3
4
4
5
3
5
4
3
3
3
3
2
5
5
5
3
2
5
4
5
3
5
3
5
4
4
35
Runway braking action less than good
Total Factor Score - Section 2
Equipment
36 Special Flight Permit Operation (ferry permit)
37 MEL / CDL Items (items related to safety of flight)
3
2
38
Special flight limitations based on AFM equipment limitations
Total Factor Score - Section 3
TOTALS
Example: Use of Flight Risk Assessment Tool
The following discussion provides a practical example of the five step process used to assess risk
as outlined in AC 120-92. The example involves the operation of a night flight where the
destination airport is experiencing windy, rainy conditions. The captain has fewer than 200 hours
in type, and the first officer has flown less than 100 hours in the last 90 days. The company SOPs
require the Chief Pilot to evaluate flight risk factor values over 20 from the perspective of
Approved by: AFS-200
accepting the risk, rejecting the risk, or mitigating the risk. Further, the company SOPs prevent
the operation of a flight if the risk value exceeds 25. In our example the non-parenthetical
numerical value represents the original risk value assigned to the hazard. Risk values in
parenthesis represent the reduced risk values assigned after the Chief Pilot acted to mitigate the
risks.
Step 1. Complete a system and task analysis.
The captain is not highly experienced with less than 200 hours in type.
The first officer has less than 100 hours in the last 90 days.
Step 2. Identify the hazards.
The runway is wet.
The flight will operate at night.
The destination crosswinds are greater than 15 knots.
Step 3. Analyze the safety risk.
The combination of the risk factors associated with this flight generates a risk value
of 20 using the example risk assessment tool.
Step 4. Assess the safety risk.
Company policy requires that the Chief Pilot assess and approve any flight risk value
greater than 15. Since the risk value of 20 exceeds the company operational threshold
risk of 15, the Chief Pilot decides to operate the flight by reducing the flight risk
value to a more acceptable level.
Step 5. Control the safety risk.
The Chief Pilot focuses on mitigating three hazards.
1. He decides to allow the scheduled captain to operate the flight.
2. However, he assigns the flight to a first officer who is more current and who has
flown more than 100 hours in the last 90 days.
3. Further, the Chief pilot changes the destination airport to an airport with no
crosswind expected.
By controlling the risk value of these three hazards, the Chief Pilot has reduced the
flight overall risk value to 13 and elevates the operational level of safety.
Flight Risk Assessment Tool
Date:
Release/Trip #:
Tail #:
Any day
153
N123
Pilot Qualifications and Experience
1
Captain with less than 200 hours in type
2
First Officer with less than 200 hours in type
3
Single Pilot Flight
Approved by: AFS-200
Departure:
DAL
Destination:
PDK
Risk
Value
Flight
Value
5
5
5
4
5
6
7
Captain with less than 100 hours last 90 days
First Officer with less than 100 hours last 90 days
Duty day greater than 12 hours
Flight time (Greater than 8 hours in the duty day)
3
3
4
4
Crew Rest (Less than 10 hours prior to the duty day)
3 (0)
Total Factor Score - Section 1
8 (5)
Operating Environment
9
VOR/GPS/LOC/ADF (Best approach available w/o vertical guidance)
10 Circling approach (best available approach)
11 No published approaches
12 Mountainous airport
13 Control tower not operational at ETA or ETD
14 Uncontrolled airport
15 Alternate airport not selected
16 Elevation of primary airport greater than 5000 ft. MSL)
17 Wet runway
18 Contaminated runway
19 Winter operation
20 Twilight operation
21 Night operation
22 Stopping distance greater than 80% of available runway
23 Repositioning flight (no passengers or cargo)
24 Pop up trip (Less than 4 hours crew notice)
25 International operation
26 No weather reporting at destination
27 Thunderstorms at departure and/or destination
28 Severe turbulence
29 Ceiling & visibility at destination less than 500 ft. / 2 sm
30 Heavy rain at departure and/or destination
31 Frozen precipitation at departure and/or destination
32 Icing (moderate-severe)
33 Surface winds greater than 30 knots
34 Crosswinds greater than 15 knots
3
4
4
5
3
5
4
3
3
3
3
2
5
5
5
3
2
5
4
5
3
5
3
5
4
4
35
Runway braking action less than good
4 (0)
Total Factor Score - Section 2
12 (8)
Equipment
36 Special Flight Permit Operation (ferry permit)
37 MEL / CDL Items (items related to safety of flight)
3
2
38
Special flight limitations based on AFM equipment limitations
Total Factor Score - Section 3
TOTALS
0
20 (13)
Questions or comments on this InFO should be addressed to Peter Neff, AFS-820, (202)
493-5400.
Approved by: AFS-200
