COLOMBIA:
DEMOCRACY AMID VIOLENCE
PROF. MCCLINTOCK | FALL 2014
COLOMBIA 2014
***Source: Freedom House
COLOMBIA 2014
***Source: Freedom House
COLOMBIA 2014
11th most violent country in the world, 138th
most peaceful
COLOMBIAS FREEDOM
HOUSE SCORES
Average Freedom House Scores
72-74= B+
75-88= B
89-94= B-/C+
91-93= B94-04= C
05-07= B08-11= C+
OTHER MEASURES OF
DEMOCRACY
Over 40% of
Colombians
believe
democracy is a
preferable form of
government.
***Source: Latinobarometro
OTHER MEASURES OF
DEMOCRACY
***Source: Latinobarometro
OTHER MEASURES OF
DEMOCRACY
Most important problem in the country according to the
people:
Terrorism/guerrillas 9%
Unemployment 22%
Corruption 12%
Public Security 14.5%
Poverty 6.7%
Violence/Gangs 12.5%
***Source: Latinobarometro
WHY HAS COLOMBIAN DEMOCRACY BEEN
WRACKED BY VIOLENCE?
WHY HAS COLOMBIAN DEMOCRACY BEEN
WRACKED BY VIOLENCE?
A VIOLENT POLITICAL CULTURE?
In 1948, the leftist leader Jorge Gaitn was assassinated.
La Violencia (1948 1964) was sparked. It was the
bloodiest civil war in Latin American history with a death toll
of at least 200,000.
La Violencia ended when Conservatives and Liberals formed
the National Front (1958 1974), alternating the presidency
every four years and excluding the left.
Although the National Front ended in 1974, the political left
continued to be excluded from the political arena. For example,
when former FARC insurgents laid down their arms to compete
in the 1990 elections, ~ 3,000 were killed.
WORLD DEVELOPMENT
INDICATORS
WORLD DEVELOPMENT
INDICATORS
WORLD DEVELOPMENT
INDICATORS
ECONOMY 2014
ECONOMY 2014
***Source: Latinobarometro
THE ESCALATION OF VIOLENCE:
THE LEFTWING FARC
Leftwing FARC (Fuerzas Armadas de la Revolucin Colombiana)
Originated amid a 64 military campaign against Marxist peasant selfdefense groups
As mentioned, ~ 3,000 members of Unin Patritica (established to
compete in elections in 1990) were assassinated, mainly by the
paramilitary or AUC
Led until 08 by intransigent, provincial Manuel Marulanda, next by
ideologue Alfonso Cano, & today by Timochenko
At its peak in 2002, the FARC had about 20,000 fighters, in 40% of
the territory of Colombia, especially the SE.
Estimates of its revenues from the drug trade are from ~ $350
million/year to as much as $3.5 billion by Colombias current defense
minister Juan Carlos Pinzn.
THE ESCALATION OF VIOLENCE:
A RIGHTWING PARAMILITARY
Rightwing paramilitary: The AUC (United Self-Defense Forces of
Colombia)
Originated in part because of the lack of a military or police presence
in the countryside (hence the name paramilitary). They were
recruited by landowners in an effort to stop land invasions and
kidnappings but were also used by landowners to illegally expand
their holdings. They were also a criminal element, responsible for
most of the killings in Colombia at the peak of the violence.
40,000 at their peak
At least $200 million/year from drug trade
THE ESCALATION OF VIOLENCE:
GOVERNANCE PROBLEMS
President Ernesto Samper (1994 1998) (Liberal Party)
Was undermined by U.S. charges that he took $6 million from the
Cali cartel for his campaign
Via police intelligence against kingpins, the Cali cartel was decimated
(as the Medelln cartel had been; Pablo Escobar was killed by
security forces in 93)
But cocaine production increased, fueling the paramilitary and the
FARC
THE ESCALATION OF VIOLENCE:
GOVERNANCE PROBLEMS
1998 2002 Government of Andrs Pastrana (Conservative Party)
Initiated a peace process: it wielded a carrot to the FARC, a
demilitarized zone (DMZ) the size of Switzerland
The FARC exploited the DMZ to build military power
Government was not controlling the AUC
2/02 the FARC hijacked an airliner and kidnapped a congressional
candidate peace process ended
Between 1985 and 2000, 4 presidential candidates, 200 judges and
investigators, half the Supreme Court justices, 200 trade
unionists/year, and hundreds of journalists were killed (70% by the
AUC)
THE GOVERNMENT OF ALVARO URIBE,
2002-2010: A REDUCTION OF VIOLENCE
Originally a Liberal, the ex-governor of Antioquia and rancher and
landowner, Uribe campaigned as an independent (later founding the
Party of the U) and as a hardliner.
Uribe worked closely with Pres. Bush and the U.S.
1) Plan Colombia began under Pastrana & Clinton, but continued
robustly. The U.S. provided ~ $700 million/year, ~ $8 billion total so far;
until 08 ~ 80% was military aid (gradually the % for institution-building
has increased). The aid included ~ 1,400 security personnel, equipment
(incl. intelligence surveillance & helicopters), aerial fumigation of coca.
2) Bush and Uribe negotiated a FTA, finally approved by the US
Congress during the Obama administration
3) In 09, the US and Colombia agreed that the US would have use of 7
Colombian military bases, sparking protest in Venezuela in particular.
THE GOVERNMENT OF URIBE:
SUCCESSES AGAINST THE FARC
The Democratic Security program doubled the size and
budget of the military and police and deployed them to
remote area. Military intelligence improved, enabling the
March 08 attack against a FARC camp over the border in
Ecuador, killing #2 Ral Reyes and yielding computer
files. In June 08 in a daring army rescue, FARC
prisoners, the former presidential candidate Ingrid
Betancourt & 3 US military contractors were freed.
The FARC was pushed to remote areas and is ~ 1/3 its
02 size. Still, that means the # of combatants is ~ 6,000
and, as indicated above, it might make more than $2
billion/year from the drug trade.
THE GOVERNMENT OF URIBE: POLICY
TOWARD THE PARAMILITARY
The 05 Justice and Peace Law was controversial.
1) It led to the demobilization of ~ 30,000 paramilitary.
They gave up their weapons. This was very helpful to the
reduction of violence and political assassinations. BUT,
promises to help their reintegration into society were
largely unfulfilled. Many were unemployed and some
remobilized as criminal bands.
2) Commanders were to serve a maximum of 8 years in
prison if they confessed the entirety of their crimes and
returned all stolen property, to be used for reparations.
BUT punishment has been minimal and very few goods
were given up. Prosecutors were overwhelmed. Critics
argued that Uribes policy amounted to impunity.
THE GOVERNMENT OF URIBE: THE
RECORD ON POLITICAL VIOLENCE
Political violence decreased.
In 2010, the nationwide murder rate was ~ 50% of 2002.
Kidnappings declined dramatically.
The number of trade-union members assassinated was a
crucial issue in the approval of the FTA with the U.S. The
Uribe governments data showed a dramatic decline but
Human Rights Watch cited 51 assassinations in 2010 (the
most in the world) plus 397 assassination threats.
Still, in 2010, 1 person was forcibly disappeared, 8
kidnapped, 80 murdered, & 1,100 forcibly displaced from
their homes.
THE RECORD ON DRUGS
Eradication efforts were vigorous &
coca production declined
somewhat (shifting back to Peru &
Bolivia). Statistics vary, but
Colombia remains either the #1
Latin American producer of
cocaine or tied for #1 with Peru.
THE GOVERNMENT OF JUAN
MANUEL SANTOS, 20101)
Enjoyed quick military successes. In Sep. 2010 the FARCs top military
strategist, Mono Joyoy, was killed by security forces and in Nov. 2011
its #1 leader Alfonso Cano was killed.
2)
In part in an effort to end the Venezuelan and Ecuadoran governments
protection of the FARC, Santos was much friendlier to them.
3)
Judicial processes against congressmen implicated in the parapolitics
scandal and soldiers implicated in the false positive scandal continued
in earnest.
4)
The DAS was dissolved & former DAS head, Jorge Noguera, was
convicted.
5)
Achieved a law for compensation for victims of the war between 1985
and 2021victims of both guerrilla and security-force violence,
including compensation for land restitution.
THE GOVERNMENT OF JUAN
MANUEL SANTOS, 2010-
CONCLUSION
Overall, the quality of democracy is improving and the
chances that it will continue to improve are good.
A) Political violence has declined. Coca production has also
declined, providing somewhat less revenues to criminals.
B) Political institutions are more open to the left and judicial
processes are much more willing to prosecute crimes by
security forces and elites.
C) Economic development in the 2000s has been
considerable and, under the Santos government, the
chances for at least slightly less inequality are better.
D) Under the Obama administration, Plan Colombia has put
more emphasis on institution-building.
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