OUTLINE
MEDICAL WORKFORCE 1998-2008
Reshaping the Medical
RESHAPING PROJECT
Workforce in Scotland
Planning transition in OBSTETRICS AND GYNAECOLOGY
Obstetrics and Gynaecology
Alastair Cook PLANNING TRANSITION TO RESHAPED
Senior Medical Officer SGHD WORKFORCE IN O&G
MEDICAL WORKFORCE GROWTH IN SCOTLAND 1998-2008
Doctors in NHS in England and Scotland 1998-2008 (AND FUTURE PRACTICE GROWTH TRAJECTORIES)
17,000.0
160000 16,000.0
140000 15,000.0
120000 14,000.0
100000
13,000.0
80000
60000 12,000.0
40000 11,000.0
20000 10,000.0
0 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Headcount 1998-2008 WTE 1998-2005 WTE Low Growth
WTE Medium Growth WTE High Growth WTE Current Est.
UK MEDICAL SCHOOL INTAKES Estimated annual retirements from NHS in Scotland and
England 2011-2036
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036
1
Projected headcount if medical graduates in England A difficult story to tell…
tell…..
and Scotland employed 2008 - 2038
300000 WHILE SERVICES STRUGGLE WITH
250000
200000 WTR IMPLEMENTATION
150000 HARD TO FILL POSTS AT ALL LEVELS
100000 TRAINEES OUT OF PROGRAMME
50000 LACK OF LOCUM COVER
0
1998 2003 2008 2013 2018 2023 2028 2033 2038
WORKFORCE FACTS RESHAPING MEDICAL
WORKFORCE
NUMBER OF DOCTORS IN NHS IN ENGLAND IMPROVE PATIENT CARE BY
AND SCOTLAND INCREASING PROPORTION DELIVERED
1998 103740 BY TRAINED DOCTORS
2003 123607
2008 149857 REDUCE RELIANCE ON DOCTORS IN
> 5000 MORE DOCTORS GRADUATE EACH TRAINING FOR SERVICE DELIVERY
YEAR THAN REACH RETIREMENT AGE DELIVER APPROPRIATE SKILL MIX
2010-15 ACROSS CLINICAL TEAMS
40 000 DOCTORS WILL GRADUATE IN UK CAPITALISE ON THE “BULGE”
BULGE” OF
APPROX. 15 000 WILL RETIRE TRAINEES POST MMC
THE BULGE 2010-2014
SPECIALTY ESTIMATED EXPECTED PROJECTED RESHAPING OBJECTIVES
RETIREMENTS CCTs OVERSUPPLY
EMERGENCY MEDICINE 10 138 128
ANAESTHESIA 70 311 241
WORK WITH BOARDS AND REGIONS
DIAGNOSTIC 79 198 119
ON MEDICAL WORKFORCE
SPECIALTIES
MEDICAL SPECIALTIES
PROJECTIONS
184 546 362
SURGICAL SPECIALTIES 142 406 264 CONSULT ON AND SET TRAINING
MENTAL HEALTH 95 250 155 INTAKE NUMBERS 2010-2014
SPECIALTIES
OBS & GYNAE 27 163 136 CO-ORDINATE BOARD AND REGIONAL
PAEDIATRICS 33 153 120 PLANNING OF TRANSITION TO
GENERAL PRACTICE 550 1460 910 RESHAPED WORKFORCE
PUBLIC HEALTH & OCC. 41 63 22
MEDICINE
TOTAL 1231 3688 2457
2
RESHAPING IN DOWNTURN
EMPHASIS ON PRODUCTIVITY
NEED FOR FEWER ROTAS
5250 JUNIOR DOCS ON 893 ROTAS IN
SCOTLAND
DOING THINGS RIGHT FIRST TIME
PRESSURE ON TERMS AND
CONDITIONS
Consultants in Obstetrics and Gynaecology in Scotland 1998-2008
200
190
RESHAPING MEDICAL 180
170
WORKFORCE 160
150
140
130
ISSUES IN OBSTETRICS AND 120
110
GYNAECOLOGY 100
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Consultant wte
CURRENTLY 38.2 WTE SPECIALTY DOC/ASS SPECIALIST + ~ 27WTE
IN FAMILY PLANNING/WELL WOMAN
CCT ESTIMATES
OBSTETRICS AND GYNAECOLOGY
NES DATA JUNE 2009
CONSULTANT AGE PROFILE (2008)
OVER 55 45 CONSULTANTS
2010 19 CCTs
50-54 40
45-49 43
2011 31
2012 63
40-44 49
2013 21
ESTIMATED ANNUAL RETIREMENTS
2014 16
2011 6 RETIREMENTS/YEAR
2015 19
2016 8
2021 9 169 CCTs over 6 years
2026 10
3
BOARD PROJECTIONS (CEL 28) BOARD PROJECTIONS (CEL 28)
ESTIMATE – NOT A COMMITMENT 9 MAINLAND BOARDS HAVE RETURNED O&G
PROJECTIONS
ESTIMATED LOSS OF 70 TRAINEES
BASED ON 40% REDUCTION AT ST3+
AND 25% REDUCTION IN ST1/2 RETURNS SUGGEST ADDITIONAL
38.9 WTE CONSULTANTS
DIFFERENT ASSUMPTIONS ON USE OF 20.7 SPECIALTY DOCTORS
SPECIALTY DOCTOR / CONSULTANT
59.6 WTE “TRAINED”
TRAINED” DOCTORS
TIMING NEXT STEPS
BULK OF EXPANSION NEEDS TO MOVE FROM PROJECTIONS TO PLANS
CAPTURE 2011-13 OUTPUTS FROM NEED CLARITY ON THE SPECIALTY DOCTOR /
CONSULTANT ASSUMPTIONS
TRAINING
AGREE MECHANISM FOR RESOURCE TRANSFER
2011/12 ~ 15 SALARIES RELEASED FROM TRAINING POSTS
2012/13 ~ 45 SALARIES RELEASED SET OUT TIMING OF TRANSITION SO
EXPANSION PLANNED FOR PEAK CCT
SOME SLIPPAGE INTO 2013/4 OUTPUT PERIOD
MEETING DEADLINES NOW IMPERATIVE
? FURTHER EXPANSION BEYOND THEN
