I was born in New York City in 1926, four years after my parents and my brother migrated to the United

States from the ity of !dessa in "ussia# $%though they arri&ed in New York penni%ess, my parents s raped together enough sa&ings to estab%ish the first of se&era% sma%% businesses 'ust after I was born# (espite the hard times of the )reat (epression and the modest finan ia% ir umstan es in whi h we %i&ed, they reated a 'oyfu% househo%d and they en ouraged my brother and me to be optimisti about the future# *y parents+ re&eren e for %earning en ouraged both my brother and me toward a ademi pursuits# In many ways, howe&er, it was my brother who was the main inte%%e tua% inf%uen e on me unti% he 'oined the armed for es in 19,1# $%most si- years my senior in age and nine years ahead of me in s hoo%, he inspired me with his inte%%e tua% bri%%ian e# I sti%% remember the intense dis ussions by my brother and his o%%ege %assmates about the so ia% and e onomi issues of the (epression that I o&erheard as I %ay in my bed, supposed%y as%eep, in the ne-t room# *y edu ation in the pub%i s hoo%s of New York City between 19.2 and 19,, was an e- e%%ent preparation for a %ife in s ien e# /e ause of the (epression, these s hoo%s were ab%e to attra t a remarkab%y ta%ented and dedi ated o%%e tion of tea hers who en ouraged their students to stri&e for the highest %e&e%s of a omp%ishment# 0hat en&ironment %ed me to aspire to a areer in s ien e, and a%so kind%ed my %o&e for %iterature and history# *y professiona% training began at Corne%% Uni&ersity 1/$ 19,23 and ontinued at Co%umbia Uni&ersity where I obtained my *$ 119643, and at 5ohns 6opkins Uni&ersity, where I obtained my 7h#(# 1196.3# It was at Corne%% that my s ientifi interests shifted from physi s and hemistry to e onomi s and history# 0he swit h in fo us was pre ipitated by the widespread pessimism about the future of the e onomy during the se ond ha%f of the 19,4s, when fore asts about the imminent return to the massi&e unemp%oyment of the )reat (epression were rife# I began my graduate training with the nai&e be%ief that by ombining the study of history and e onomi s I wou%d 8ui k%y dis o&er the fundamenta% for es that had determined te hno%ogi a% and institutiona% hanges o&er the ages and that su h know%edge wou%d point to so%utions to the urrent prob%ems of e onomi instabi%ity and ine8uity# $s I be ame aware of how %itt%e was a tua%%y known about these %arge pro esses and their inter onne tions, I began to fo us on more dis rete issues9 :hat did we rea%%y know about the ro%e of the fa tory system in e onomi and institutiona% hange during the nineteenth entury; :hat was the nature and the magnitude of the ontribution of parti u%ar new te hno%ogies, su h as rai%roads or stee% mi%%s, to e onomi growth; I a%so on %uded that to answer su h 8uestions, mu h greater use had to be made of 8uantitati&e e&iden e, so I set out to master the most ad&an ed ana%yti a% and statisti a% methods that were then taught in the e onomi s department# It was on%y %ater that I dis o&ered that the training program I had worked out for myse%f was unorthodofor an e onomi historian# 0he two tea hers who inf%uen ed me the most during my year at Co%umbia were )eorge 5# Stig%er, who taught the graduate mi roe onomi s se8uen e, and Carter )oodri h, who taught the se8uen e in $meri an e onomi history# Stig%er made mi roe onomi theory ome a%i&e# 6e emphasi<ed not its e%egan e but its app%i abi%ity to a wide range of issues in e onomi po%i y# 6e ontinua%%y mo&ed between theory and e&iden e,

arefu%%y onsidering the empiri a% &a%idity for the assumptions that theorists made about the s%ope or other aspe ts of the shape of key fun tions# 6e often onsidered when, with what mode%, and under what imp%i it assumptions one ou%d draw a parti u%ar inferen e from a gi&en body of data# )oodri h impressed me not on%y with his know%edge of the %iterature of $meri an e onomi history, but with his wi%%ingness to identify the gaps in the profession+s o%%e ti&e know%edge of key issues# /y the end of the ourse one not on%y had a good grasp of what was known about the pro ess of $meri an e onomi growth, but a %ist of potentia% pro'e ts# It was to )oodri h that I turned for ad&i e on my master+s thesis# 6e was then engaged in resear h for his book, Government Promotion of Canals and Railroads and raised a number of issues that pu<<%ed him about the finan ing, riskiness, and benefits of the Union 7a ifi "ai%road# 0hese 8uestions be ame the sub'e t matter of my master+s thesis, whi h was a%so my first pub%ished book# $%though )oodri h did not himse%f make use of the new mathemati a% and statisti a% methods of e onomi s, he en ouraged me to do so# 6e a%so suggested that, gi&en my substantia% interests and 8uantitati&e approa hes to e onomi history, Simon =u<nets at 5ohns 6opkins was probab%y the best e onomist to guide my future training# 0he tea hers who taught me the most at 5ohns 6opkins, aside from Simon =u<nets, were $bba >erner and ?rit< *a h%up in mi roe onomi theory@ A&sey (omar in ma roe onomi theory and the theory of e onomi growth@ 0#C# >iu in mathemati a% e onomi s, and two tea hers of mathemati a% statisti s and of samp%ing design in the S hoo% of 7ub%i 6ea%th# Simon =u<nets, who super&ised my do tora% dissertation, was by far the most inf%uentia% figure in my graduate training# Soft spoken and of moderate stature, one did not ha&e to be in his %ass &ery %ong to dis o&er that he was a towering inte%%e t, erudite not on%y in e onomi s, but a%so in history, demography, statisti s, and the natura% s ien es# 6is ourse in e onomi growth o&ered the history of te hno%ogi a% hange during the modern era, demography and popu%ation theory, and the use of nationa% in ome aggregates for the omparati&e study of e onomi growth and of the si<e distribution of in ome# It was not unti% some years %ater that I rea%i<ed the ourse presented the substan e of the resear h that %ater appeared in a series of 14 supp%ements to Economic Development and Cultural Change, and in his 1966 monograph, Modern Economic Growth: Rate, Structure, and Spread B the work for whi h he was awarded the third Nobe% 7ri<e in e onomi s# =u<nets+s ourse was &a%uab%e not on%y for the substan e of the materia% but a%so for the way that he used the materia% to transmit the art of measurement# 6e repeated%y demonstrated that the entra% statisti a% prob%em in e onomi s was not random error but systemati biases in the data, and he on&eyed a number of powerfu% approa hes to oping with that prob%em, parti u%ar%y emphasi<ing the ro%e of sensiti&ity ana%ysis# /y the time I %eft residen e at 5ohns 6opkins, I had worked out a twoBpronged resear h strategy that I thought ou%d keep me going for a de ade or more# 0he first was to measure the impa t of key s ientifi and te hno%ogi a% inno&ations, key go&ernmenta% po%i ies, and key en&ironmenta% and institutiona% hanges on the ourse of e onomi growth# 0he se ond was to promote the wider use of the mathemati a% mode%s and statisti a% methods of e onomi s in studying the omp%e-, %ongBterm pro esses that were the fo us of e onomi historians# In my mind these two ob'e ti&es were %ose%y interre%ated# 0he best argument for the new methods was the demonstration that in the

study of parti u%ar issues, su h as the ontribution of rai%roads to e onomi growth, these methods were superior to traditiona% approa hes# 0he new methods made it possib%e to %ay out the key ana%yti a% issues in a manner that made them amenab%e to measurement, to identify the ategories of e&iden e needed to reso%&e the points at issue, to de&e%op te hni8ues of measurement that were suitab%e for both the issues and the a&ai%ab%e e&iden e, and to assess the robustness of the resu%ts# Se&era% fa tors made the rea%i<ation of my resear h program possib%e# !ne was the wi%%ingness of uni&ersity administrators to pro&ide me with a generous share of the %imited resear h funds at their disposa%, a sine qua non for work that was both %abor and omputer intensi&e# A&en when I was sti%% an unpro&en new assistant professor at "o hester, >ione% :# * =en<ie pro&ided se&era% resear h assistants, a omputer programmer, and a%% of the omputer time I ou%d use# (eans (# )a%e 5ohnson and "obert * C# $dams made simi%ar in&estments in my resear h at Chi ago during the 1964s and ear%y 19C4s at %e&e%s that ref%e ted as mu h their estimates of my promise as of a omp%ishments# 0his type of support was ontinued at 6ar&ard by 6enry "oso&sky during the %ast ha%f of the 19C4s# A- ept for a sma%% grant from the So ia% S ien e "esear h Coun i% 1SS"C3 when I was sti%% a student at 5ohns 6opkins, my work on rai%roads was supported e- %usi&e%y from uni&ersity funds# Sin e my %ater pro'e ts were based on e&erB%arger data sets, obtained primari%y from manus ript sour es at ar hi&es, these pro'e ts ou%d not ha&e been arried out without the generous support of foundations, parti u%ar%y the Nationa% S ien e ?oundation 1NS?3 and the Nationa% Institutes of 6ea%th 1NI63, but to a signifi ant degree a%so su h pri&ate foundations as the ?ord ?oundation, the A--on Adu ationa% ?oundation, and the :a%green ?oundation Andowment ?und# Uni&ersity funding sti%% remained ru ia% sin e it took onsiderab%e out%ays of funds to bring a %arge pro'e t to a point that ou%d win appro&a% from peer re&iew ommittees# $nother key fa tor was the p%unging ost of data pro essing made possib%e by rapid ad&an es in omputer hardware and software# 0hese te hno%ogi a% de&e%opments made it feasib%e to work with e&erB%arger data sets# /y %inking together the data on indi&idua%s and househo%ds from a wide range of ar hi&a% sour es, data sets ou%d be ustomi<ed for parti u%ar e onomi issues# 0he sour es in %ude the manus ript s hedu%es of de ennia% ensuses, probate re ords, mi%itary and pension re ords, genea%ogies, ta- ro%%s, death ertifi ates, and pub%i hea%th re ords# Sti%% another important fa tor in making su h resear h feasib%e was the ooperation of off ia%s at the U#S# Nationa% $r hi&es and of the )enea%ogi a% >ibrary of the Chur h of 5esus Christ of >atterB(ay Saints in Sa%t >ake City# 0he )enea%ogi a% >ibrary is espe ia%%y &a%uab%e be ause it is a depository for &ast 8uantities of re ords from a%% o&er the United States, and from many other ountries, re%e&ant to e onomi , so ia%, and biomedi a% resear h# $%though o%%e ted for re%igious reasons, offi ia%s of the >ibrary ha&e made their ho%dings a&ai%ab%e to the s ientifi ommunity, pro&iding a resour e that wou%d otherwise ha&e re8uired enormous sums of money to reprodu e# No sing%e organi<ation has ontributed more to the study of %ongBterm e onomi growth than the Nationa% /ureau of A onomi "esear h 1N/A"3# 0he %ongBterm approa h figured prominent%y in N/A" resear h programs ondu ted between the %ate 19.4s and the %ate 1964s# 0hat work, whi h was ondu ted main%y at the ma ro %e&e%, was a ontinuation of the /ureau+s pioneering work in the de&e%opment of nationa% in ome

a ounts and re%ated measures of ma roe onomi beha&ior# 6owe&er, during the 19C4s the /ureau+s work on %ongBterm growth pro esses had waned# :hen *artin ?e%dstein be ame 7resident of the N/A" in 19CC he de ided to undertake a new program on the %ongBterm (e&e%opment of the $meri an A onomy 1($A3, and asked me to be its program dire tor# I appointed an e-e uti&e ommittee onsisting of >an e A# (a&is, Stan%ey ># Angerman, "obert *# )a%%man, C%audia (# )o%din, C%ayne ># 7ope, and myse%f to hart the dire tion of the new program# $fter re&iewing the /ureau+s past work, and the new dire tion it was taking under ?e%dstein+s %eadership, the ommittee sought to identify a set of urrent po%i y issues to whi h the ($A ou%d ontribute# In the ourse of this re&iew we onsu%ted with Simon =u<nets, (oug%ass C# North, "i hard $# Aaster%in, and *oses $bramo&it<, among others# $fter more than a year of in&estigation, we on %uded that to understand the sour es of the %ongBterm de %ine in sa&ing and in&estment rates, the fa tors inf%uen ing the rate of te hno%ogi a% hange, or the %ongBterm shifts in the demographi stru ture of the popu%ation and the %abor for e, we needed to know mu h more about mi roe onomi beha&ior than was known at the time# "esear h at the mi roe onomi %e&e%, howe&er, had been inhibited by the absen e of suitab%e data# 0he ($A, therefore, turned its attention to the prob%em of onstru ting new data sets apab%e of i%%uminating the re%ationship between the urrent and the past beha&ior of fami%ies and firms# 0he e-e uti&e ommittee %aun hed a series of pi%ot pro'e ts in&estigating the feasibi%ity of reating se&era% representati&e data sets onsisting of intergenerationa%%y %inked fami%ies# Su h data sets wou%d open up entire%y new possibi%ities for e-amining the intera tion of e onomi and u%tura% fa tors and their mutua% inf%uen e on su h &ariab%es as the sa&ing rate, the rate of fema%e entry into the %abor for e, ferti%ity and morta%ity rates, the ine8ua%ity of the wea%th distribution, migration rates, and rates of e onomi and so ia% mobi%ity# 0hese data sets ou%d not be reated from a sing%e set of re ords but re8uired the %inking of se&era% different types of ar hi&a% re ords# 0he e-e uti&e ommittee a%so began a pi%ot study on the feasibi%ity of onstru ting data sets based on firm re ords that wou%d permit the ana%ysis of the way that firms respond to the hanging te hno%ogi a% opportunities that are open to them, as we%% as to the hanging institutiona% and %ega% en&ironment in whi h they must operate# (ea%ing with su h issues re8uired the de&e%opment of representati&e sets of firm re ords stret hing o&er %ong periods of time that not on%y ontained information on the de isionBmaking pro esses of these firms, but a%so on the e onomi onse8uen es of the de isions# 0he ($A+s re&iew of the pi%ot pro'e ts on %uded that the design of portab%e omputers for data retrie&a%, and of software to manipu%ate %arge fi%es, had de&e%oped to the point where the reation of su h mi roe onomi data sets was feasib%e# $ s ore of pro'e ts were set out by 1924 and in&estigators to %ead them were hosen# C%audia )o%din, who be ame the dire tor of the ($A in 1991, reported that there are now some forty ($A resear h asso iates# Sin e the start of the ($A, they ha&e reated o&er fifty %ongitudina% and rossBse tiona% data sets that span the period from the %ate 1C44s to the present# 0hese data sets ha&e formed the basis for s ores of papers, se&era% onferen e &o%umes and a number of monographs# *y abi%ity to work on the prob%em of reating and studying %arge %ife y %e and intergenerationa% data sets rea hed a new %e&e% in 1921 when "i hard N# "osett, then

(ean of the )raduate S hoo% of /usiness at 0he Uni&ersity of Chi ago, in&ited me to su eed )eorge 5# Stig%er as the Char%es "# :a%green 7rofessor of $meri an Institutions# In addition to the unusua% resear h fund endowed by :a%green, "osett offered to estab%ish a Center for 7opu%ation A onomi s 1C7A3 that wou%d fo us on the intera tion of e onomi , demographi , and bio%ogi a% pro esses o&er %ifeB y %es and generations# 0he in&itation was enthusiasti a%%y supported by 6anna )ray, who was then the 7resident of 0he Uni&ersity of Chi ago# 0he generous support of the C7A has been ontinued by 5ohn 7# )ou%d, who su eeded "osett as (ean, by "obert S# 6amada, the urrent (ean, and by 6ugo ?# Sonnens hein, 7resident of 0he Uni&ersity of Chi ago# :ithout the resour es of the :a%green Chair and the C7A the urrent resear h pro'e ts on whi h I reported in the 7ri<e >e ture wou%d not ha&e been possib%e# 0he data on hea%th onditions, for e-amp%e, omes from a pro'e t a%%ed Earl !ndicators of "ater #or$ "evels, Disease, % Death whi h is tra ing near%y ,4,444 Union $rmy men from the rad%e to the gra&e# It takes o&er 1D,444 &ariab%es to des ribe the %ifeB y %e history of one of these men# 0hese %ifeB y %e histories are reated by %inking about a s ore of data sets# It took more than ha%f a de ade of work to in&estigate the potentia% of these data sets, work out pro edures for data retrie&a% and fi%e management, and to estab%ish the feasibi%ity of the enterprise in our own minds# 0he site ommittee of the Nationa% Institutes of 6ea%th whi h re&iewed the origina% pro'e t proposa% in 1926 agreed that su h a pro'e t ou%d in prin ip%e make a signifi ant ontribution to an understanding of the pro ess of aging, but they were skepti a% about the 8ua%ity of some of the data, about whether the software and programming pro edures we had de&e%oped by that time were ade8uate for the management of su h a %arge data set, and about whether the pro'e t ou%d be omp%eted within the proposed budget# 0o reso%&e these doubts it was ne essary to draw a si- per ent subsamp%e whi h %inked together a%% of the separate sour es and whi h demonstrated the effe ti&eness of the software by ana%y<ing the information in the subsamp%e# It took an additiona% four years to omp%ete the se ond phase of the 'ustifi ation of the pro'e t# 0hus near%y a de ade of pre%iminary resear h, mu h of it funded by :a%green and the C7A, was re8uired before the pro'e t was a epted by the peer re&iewers of NI6 and NS?# No indi&idua% has done more to he%p me pursue a areer in s ien e than my wife of fortyBfi&e years# I met Anid Cassandra *organ during the e%e tion ampaign of 19,2 when she was a Sunday s hoo% tea her, a %eader of the youth organi<ations of St# 7hi%%ips Apis opa% Chur h, and the head of 6ar%em Youth for the e%e tion of 6enry :a%%a e# !&er the years Anid has been both my most onfident supporter and my keenest riti # (uring my graduate training her earnings ontributed signifi ant%y to the in ome of our fami%y# :hen I was an assistant professor she ombined are of the hi%dren with many hours of unpaid %abor as a resear h assistant in %ibrary ar hi&es# She he%ped boost my se%fB onfiden e when my unorthodo- findings pro&oked ontro&ersy and riti isms, and she often pro&ided insightfu% suggestions for the impro&ement of my %e tures, papers, books, %etters, and resear h proposa%s# 0hroughout the years she has been the o&erseer of my so ia% ons ien e, pu%%ing me ba k to rea%ity when she saw that my preo upation with the abstra t aspe ts of s ientifi issues had %ed me to e-tenuate their deep%y human aspe ts# I a%so benefitted great%y from her e-perien es as Student Counse%or, (ean of Students, and (ire tor of Student >ife at "o hester, 6ar&ard, and Chi ago# She has he%ped me to understand the

administrator+s point of &iew and to impro&e what she and my sons refer to as Epeop%e ski%%sE# *y sons, *i hae% and Ste&en, ha&e shared in the 'oys and the tribu%ations of being raised by a ademi parents# 0hey ha&e en ouraged me to adhere steadfast%y to s ho%ar%y prin ip%es in the fa e of unfair riti isms# 0hey ha&e read my papers and books, offered he%pfu% suggestions, and sometimes he%ped substantia%%y in the pro ess of editing, tea hing me how to say more with fewer words# !ne aspe t of the p%unging ost of data pro essing has been the emergen e of %argeB s a%e o%%aborati&e pro'e ts in e onomi history# Su h pro'e ts ha&e been promoted part%y by e onomies of s a%e in the retrie&a% and %eaning of the data sets and part%y by the wide range of ski%%s re8uired to manipu%ate, ana%y<e and interpret the data# 0here were, for e-amp%e, thirty fi&e ontributors to the three te hni a% &o%umes of #ithout Consent or Contract, many of them former students who are now distinguished senior in&estigators# 0he resear h team for the Earl !ndicators pro'e t is e&en %arger# It has been my good fortune to ha&e had a ess not on%y to the poo% of ta%ented students at Chi ago, but a%so to those at 6ar&ard and "o hester# In both the s%a&ery and aging pro'e ts these students were often far ahead of the senior in&estigators in re ogni<ing ma'or unanti ipated findings, in proposing no&e% approa hes to the ana%ysis of the data, in dis o&ering new data sets, and in offering probing riti isms# It is known far and wide among e onomi historians that mu h of the redit for the su ess of my resear h enterprises goes to *ari%yn Coopersmith who has worked with me for more than a 8uarter of a entury# She was the administrati&e assistant of the ($A program from its in eption unti% 1991, and she has been the asso iate dire tor of the C7A sin e 1921# She is not on%y an effe ti&e oordinator but has been a di%igent resear her and a friend to a %egion of graduate resear h assistants, who often turned to her for he%p in o&er oming bureau rati obsta %es# 0he ompanionship of s ho%ars and the thri%% of ontinuous %earning are two wonderfu% aspe ts of a %ife in s ien e# :hen one is engaged with students who are both &ery urious and &ery bright, it is ne&er 8uite %ear who is tea hing whom# I ha&e a%so had the good fortune of o%%aborating with senior in&estigators who are a%% e- eptiona% tea hers with enthusiasm for their work and with great patien e for the bewi%derment of no&i es# 0heir guidan e great%y fa i%itated my efforts to train myse%f for resear h in&o%&ing the inter onne tions between e onomi s, demography, and the biomedi a% s ien es# 5ames 0russe%% tutored me as I tried to master the mathemati a% mode%s of demography and the art of app%ying them to in omp%ete data# 5#*# 0anner has spent numerous hours tea hing me the fundamenta%s of the bran h of medi ine a%%ed au-o%ogy 1the study of human growth3, %ooking at our data and he%ping to interpret them, guiding me through basi te-ts, a%%ing my attention to the %atest re%e&ant papers, and reading and riti i<ing my work# I re ei&ed a simi%ar edu ation from Ne&in S# S rimshaw in epidemio%ogy 1parti u%ar%y of infe tious diseases3, in nutrition, and in some aspe ts of both physio%ogy and %ini a% medi ine#