DAILY I FOREX REPORT 26TH JULY 2013
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HEADLINES
British Pound, Euro May Rise On UK GDP And German IFO Data Pound Falls Despite UK Economy Meeting Expectations for 0.6% Growth THE TAKEAWAY: UK GDP rises 0.6% in Q2 > GDP expansion may not have been enough to offset recent BoE dovish comments -> Pound falls
TRADING TIPS
BUY EURUSD ABOVE 1.3210 TGT 1.3230/1.3250 SL 1.3190
UK gross domestic product grew at the fastest pace in three quarters and met analysts mean expectation, but that was not enough to stop a 70 pip selloff in Cable trading. UK GDP rose 0.6% in the second quarter, as was expected and better than the 0.3% growth reported in the first quarter. GDP was 1.4% higher than Q2 2012, according to the UK Office for National Statistics. UK manufacturing rose 0.4% in Q2, while services rose 0.6%, led by retailing, hotels, and business services. Despite the recent improvements in UK economic performance, the BoE said in its July meeting that the economy is still weak despite the recovery and slack is expected for some time. Therefore, improved UK economic performance could dissuade the BoE from adding to stimulus in the future. The Pound sold off as traders may have been looking for a better than expected GDP result, and the Euro also continued its decline, which started after a temporary rise on better than expected IFO German business climate. GBP/USD is currently trading around 1.5300, and a former resistance line around 1.5280 may provide support.
SELL USDJPY BELOW 99.80 TGT 99.60/99.40 SL 100.10
BUY GBPUSD ABOVE
1.5330 TGT 1.5350/1.5370 SL 1.5300
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HOURLY EURUSD CHART HOURLY EURUSD CHART
ANALYSIS EURUSD LOOKS UPWARD TREND: BULLISH STRATEGY: BUY ON DIPS MACD =>.0030 (BULLISH SIGNAL) RSI => 46(BULLISH SIGNAL)
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HOURLY USDJPY CHART
ANALYSIS USDJPY LOOKS DOWNWARD TREND: BEARISH STRATEGY: SELL ON RISE MACD =>.10(BEARISH SIGNAL) RSI =>39(BEARISH SIGNAL)
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HOURLY GBPUSD CHART
ANALYSIS GBPUSD LOOKS UPWARD TREND: BULLISH STRATEGY: BUY ON DIPS MACD =>.0002(BULLISH SIGNAL) RSI =>40(BULLISH SIGNAL)
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HOURLY EURGBP CHART
ANALYSIS EURGBP LOOKS UPWARD TREND: BULLISH STRATEGY: BUY ON DIPS MACD =>.0004(BULLISH SIGNAL) RSI =>60(BULLISH SIGNAL)
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HOURLY USD INDEX CHART
ANALYSIS USD INDEX LOOKS DOWNWARD TREND: BEARIISH STRATEGY: SELL ON RISE MACD =>.0138(BEARISH SIGNAL) RSI =>33(BEARISH SIGNAL)
ECONOMIC CALLENDER
Date
Mon Jul 22
Time
Currency
Event
Importance
Actual
Forecast
Previous
Notes
JPY BOJ Policy Board Member Sato Speaks in Fukushima 05:00 JPY Supermarket Sales (YoY) (JUN) CHF Money Supply M3 (YoY) (JUN) JPY Convenience Store Sales (YoY) (JUN) USD Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index (JUN) USD Existing Home Sales (JUN) USD Existing Home Sales (MoM) (JUN) USD EIA Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update CHF Real Estate Index Family Homes (2Q) JPY Cabinet Office Monthly Economic Report for July 08:30 GBP BBA Loans for House Purchase (JUN) CAD Retail Sales (MoM) (MAY) CAD Retail Sales Less Autos (MoM) (MAY) USD House Price Index (MoM) (MAY) USD Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (JUL) EUR Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence (JUL A) NZD Trade Balance (New Zealand dollars) (JUN) NZD Exports (New Zealand dollars) (JUN) NZD Imports (New Zealand dollars) (JUN) NZD Balance (YTD) (New Zealand dollars) (JUN)
Low
Low
2.7%
-1.2%
07:00
Low
11.6%
9.7%
07:00
Low
0.1%
-1.2%
12:30
Medium
0.00
-0.30
14:00
Low
5.25M
5.18M
14:00
Medium
1.4%
4.2%
21:00
Low
Tue Jul 23
Low
425.2
High
Medium
38300
36102
12:30
Medium
0.4%
0.1%
12:30
Low
0.4%
-0.3%
13:00
Medium
0.8%
0.7%
14:00
Low
10
14:00
Medium
-18.3
-18.8
22:45
Medium
105M
71M
22:45
Low
4.01B
4.08B
22:45
Low
3.90B
4.01B
22:45
Medium
-1050M
-869M
23:50
JPY Merchandise Trade Balance Total (Yen) (JUN) JPY Adjusted Merchandise Trade Balance (Yen) (JUN) JPY Merchandise Trade Exports (YoY) (JUN) JPY Merchandise Trade Imports (YoY) (JUN) AUD DEWR Internet Skilled Vacancies (MoM) (JUN) AUD Consumer Prices Index (QoQ) (2Q) AUD Consumer Prices Index (YoY) (2Q) AUD Consumer Prices Index RBA Trimmed Mean (QoQ) (2Q) AUD Consumer Prices Index RBA Trimmed Mean (YoY) (2Q) AUD Consumer Prices Index RBA Weighted Median (QoQ) (2Q) AUD Consumer Prices Index RBA Weighted Median (YoY) (2Q) CNY HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI (JUL) EUR French Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing (JUL P) EUR French Purchasing Manager Index Services (JUL P) EUR German Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing (JUL A) EUR German Purchasing Manager Index Services (JUL A) EUR Euro-Zone Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing (JUL A) EUR Euro-Zone Purchasing Manager Index Services (JUL A) EUR Euro-Zone Purchasing Manager Index Composite (JUL A) GBP CBI Trends Total Orders (JUL) GBP CBI Trends Selling Prices (JUL) GBP CBI Business Optimism (JUL) USD MBA Mortgage Applications (JUL 19)
Medium
-150.0B
-996.4B
23:50
Low
-573.5B
-821.0B
23:50
Low
10.0
10.1
23:50
Low
13.6
10.1
Wed Jul 24
01:00
Low
-0.5%
01:30
LIVE
Medium
0.5%
0.4%
01:30
LIVE
High
2.5%
2.5%
01:30
Low
0.5%
0.3%
01:30
Low
2.1%
2.2%
01:30
Low
0.5%
0.5%
01:30
Low
2.4%
2.6%
01:45
Medium
48.5
48.2
07:00
Low
48.8
48.4
07:00
Low
47.5
47.2
07:30
Medium
49.2
48.6
07:30
Medium
50.7
50.4
08:00
LIVE
Medium
49.1
48.8
08:00
LIVE
Medium
48.7
48.3
08:00
LIVE
Medium
49.1
48.7
10:00
Low
-12
-18
10:00
Low
10:00
Low
11:00
Low
-2.60%
12:58
USD Markit US PMI Preliminary (JUL) USD New Home Sales (JUN) USD New Home Sales (MoM) (JUN) USD DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories (JUL 19) USD DOE U.S. Gasoline Inventories (JUL 19) USD DOE U.S. Distillate Inventory (JUL 19) USD DOE U.S. Refinery Utilization (JUL 19) NZD Reserve Bank of New Zealand Rate Decision (JUL 25) JPY Japan Buying Foreign Bonds (Yen) (JUL 19) JPY Japan Buying Foreign Stocks (Yen) (JUL 19) JPY Foreign Buying Japan Bonds (Yen) (JUL 19) JPY Foreign Buying Japan Stocks (Yen) (JUL 19) JPY Corporate Service Price (YoY) (JUN) EUR German Import Price Index (MoM) (JUN) EUR German Import Price Index (YoY) (JUN)
Medium
52.5
14:00
Low
485K
476K
14:00
Medium
1.8%
2.1%
14:30
Low
-6902K
14:30
Low
-882K
14:30
Low
3055K
14:30
Low
3870K
21:00
LIVE
High
2.50%
2.50%
23:50
Medium
1105.7B
23:50
Medium
-88.2B
23:50
Low
0.8B
23:50
Low
398.2B
23:50
Low
0.6%
0.3%
Thu Jul 25
Low
-0.3%
-0.4%
Low
-1.6%
-2.9%
08:00
EUR German IFO Business Climate (JUL) EUR German IFO Current Assessment (JUL) EUR German IFO Expectations (JUL) EUR Euro-Zone M3 s.a. (YoY) (JUN) EUR Euro-Zone M3 s.a. (3M) (JUN) GBP Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) (2Q A) GBP Gross Domestic Product (YoY) (2Q A) GBP Index of Services (MoM) (MAY) GBP Index of Services (3Mo3M) (MAY)
Medium
106.1
105.9
08:00
Medium
109.7
109.4
08:00
Medium
102.5
102.5
08:00
Low
3.0%
2.9%
08:00
Low
3.0%
2.9%
08:30
High
0.6%
0.3%
08:30
High
1.4%
0.3%
08:30
Low
0.2%
0.2%
08:30
Low
0.7%
0.8%
12:30
CAD Average Weekly Earnings (YoY) (MAY) USD Initial Jobless Claims (JUL 19) USD Continuing Claims (JUL 13) USD Durable Goods Orders (JUN) USD Durables Ex Transportation (JUN) USD Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air (JUN) USD Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air (JUN) USD EIA Natural Gas Storage Change (JUL 19) USD Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity (JUL) JPY National Consumer Price Index (YoY) (JUN) JPY National Consumer Price Index Ex-Fresh Food (YoY) (JUN) JPY National Consumer Price Index Ex Food, Energy (YoY) (JUN) JPY Tokyo Consumer Price Index (YoY) (JUL) JPY Tokyo Consumer Price Index Ex-Fresh Food (YoY) (JUL) JPY Tokyo Consumer Price Index Ex Food, Energy (YoY) (JUL) CNY MNI July Business Sentiment Indicator USD U. of Michigan Confidence (JUL F) CNY Industrial Profits YTD (YoY) (JUN)
Low
2.2%
12:30
Medium
340K
334K
12:30
Low
2980K
3114K
12:30
LIVE
High
1.1%
3.6%
12:30
Medium
0.5%
0.7%
12:30
Low
0.7%
1.1%
12:30
Low
1.1%
1.7%
14:30
Low
58
15:00
Low
-5
23:30
High
0.1%
-0.3%
23:30
Medium
0.3%
0.0%
23:30
Medium
-0.3%
-0.4%
23:30
Low
0.2%
0.0%
23:30
Low
0.3%
0.2%
23:30
Low
-0.4%
-0.4%
Fri Jul 26
01:45
Low
13:55
Medium
84.0
83.9
Sat Jul 27
01:30
Low
12.3%
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