DAILY I FOREX REPORT
4TH APRIL 2013
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HEADLINES
USD/JPY Breakout Stalls, Is the Same in Store for GBP/USD and Gold? Disappointing UK PMI For Construction Briefly Drives Pound Lower
TRADING TIPS
BUY EURUSD ABOVE 1.2840 tgs 1.2860/1.2880 sl 1.2810
Euro Vulnerable On Soft Inflation Data Ahead Of ECB Rate Decision Euro Runs Slightly Higher on an IMF Contribution to the Cyprus Bailout
The Euro received a boost at the end of an otherwise quiet European session, on the announcement that the IMF will contribute 1 billion Euros to the Cyprus bailout agreement. It is unclear if the pledge is an addition to the 10 billion Euro aid already agreed upon, or if the IMF will help contribute to that original amount. IMF Managing Director Lagarde said she will seek board approval for the aid in early May. The Euro rose to 1.2835 against the US Dollar following the news, as the Euro had battled to stay above the 1.2800 line earlier in the session. The 1.2820 support line may continue to provide support from here, and the 200 day moving average may provide support at 1.2882. Before the announcement, the Euro-zone annual inflation estimate was reported at a new 2.5 year low of 1.7%, following 1.8% inflation in February. The estimated inflation was slightly better than an expected 1.6% inflation level, and therefore did not have significant impact on Euro trading.
SELL USDJPY BELOW 93.30 tgt 93.10/92.90 SL 93.60
SELL GBPUSD BELOW 1.5075 Tgt 1.5055/1.5035 SL 1.5105
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HOURLY EURUSD CHART HOURLY EURUSD CHART
ANALYSIS
OPEN: 1.2819 HIGH: 1.2838 LOW: 1.2790 CLOSE: 1.2820
EURUSD LOOKS UPWARD TREND : BULLISH STRATEGY: BUY ON DIPS MACD =>-.0005(BULLISH SIGNAL) RSI => 48(BULLISH SIGNAL)
HOURLY USDJPY CHART
HOURLY USDJPY CHART
ANALYSIS
OPEN: 93.34 HIGH: 93.69 LOW: 93.32 CLOSE: 93.50
USDJPY LOOKS DOWNWARD TREND: BEARISH STRATEGY: SELL ON RISE MACD => -0.07( BEARISH SIGNAL) RSI =>53(BEARISH SIGNAL)
HOURLYGBPUSD GBPUSD CHART HOURLY CHART
ANALYSIS
OPEN: 1.5108 HIGH: 1.5121 LOW: 1.5075 CLOSE: 1.5109
GBPUSD LOOKS DOWNWARD TREND: BEARISH STRATEGY: SELL ON RISE MACD => .002( BULLISH SIGNAL) RSI => 43(BULLISH SIGNAL)
HOURLY EURGBP CHART
HOURLY EURGBP CHART
ANALYSIS
OPEN: 0.8484 HIGH: 0.8495 LOW: 0.8469 CLOSE: 0.8484
EURGBP LOOKS UPWARDS TREND: BULLISH STRATEGY: BUY ON DEEPS MACD =>-.003(BULLISH SIGNAL) RSI =>53(BULLISH SIGNAL)
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HOURLY USDINDEX CHART
ANALYSIS
OPEN: 82.9010 HIGH: 82.0650 LOW: 82.8480 CLOSE: 82.9040
USDINDEX LOOKS DOWNWARD TREND: BEARISH STRATEGY: SELL ON RISE MACD =>0.22(BEARISH SIGNAL) RSI =>51(BEARISH SIGNAL)
ECONOMIC CALENDER
Date
Sun Mar 31
Time
Currency
Event
Importance
Actual
Forecast
Previous
Notes
23:50
JPY Tankan Large Manufacturers Outlook (1Q) JPY Tankan NonManufacturing Outlook (1Q) JPY Tankan Large All Industry Capex (1Q) JPY Tankan Large Manufacturers Index (1Q) JPY Tankan NonManufacturing Index (1Q) JPY Loans & Discounts Corp (YoY) (FEB) CNY Manufacturing PMI (MAR) CNY HSBC Manufacturing PMI (MAR) CNY Leading Index (FEB) JPY Vehicle Sales (YoY) (MAR) USD Markit US PMI Final (MAR) USD ISM Manufacturing (MAR) USD Construction Spending (MoM) (FEB) USD ISM Prices Paid (MAR) AUD AiG Performance of Manufacturing Index (MAR) AUD RPData-Rismark House PX Actual (MAR) GBP Lloyds Business Barometer (MAR) JPY Monetary Base (YoY) (MAR)
High
-1
-10
23:50
High
11
23:50
Medium
-2.0%
5.0%
6.8%
23:50
Medium
-8
-7
-12
23:50
Medium
23:50
Mon Apr 1
Low
1.42%
1.34%
01:00
High
50.9
51.2
50.1
01:45
Medium
51.6
51.6
50.4
04:39
Low
100.23
100.50
05:00
Low
-15.6%
-12.2%
12:58
Low
54.6
55.0
54.9
14:00
High
51.3
54.0
54.2
14:00
Medium
1.2%
1.0%
-2.1%
14:00
Medium
54.5
60.0
61.5
22:30
Medium
44.4
45.6
23:00
Low
1.3%
0.3%
23:01
Low
20
13
23:50
Low
19.8%
15.0%
Tue Apr 2
00:00
NZD ANZ Commodity Price (MAR) JPY Labor Cash Earnings (YoY) (FEB) AUD Reserve Bank of Australia Rate Decision (APR 2) AUD RBA Commodity Index SDR (YoY) (MAR) AUD RBA Commodity Price Index (MAR) CHF SVME-Purchasing Managers Index (MAR) EUR Italian Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing (MAR) EUR French Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing (MAR F) EUR German Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing (MAR F) EUR Euro-Zone Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing (MAR F) EUR Italian Unemployment Rate s.a. (FEB P) GBP Mortgage Approvals (FEB) GBP Net Consumer Credit (FEB) GBP Net Lending Sec. on Dwellings (FEB) GBP Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing (MAR) GBP M4 Ex IOFCs 3M Annualised (FEB) GBP M4 Money Supply (MoM) (FEB) GBP M4 Money Supply (YoY) (FEB) EUR Euro-Zone Unemployment Rate (FEB) EUR ECB's Kranjec Presents Slovenia Economy Outlook, Banks EUR German Consumer Price Index EU Harmonised (YoY)
Low
7.4%
1.1%
01:30
Medium
-0.7%
-0.2%
0.1%
03:30
High
3.00%
3.00%
3.00%
05:30
Low
-7.5%
-6.5%
05:30
Low
87.9
87.9
07:30
Medium
48.3
50.4
50.8
07:45
Low
44.5
45.3
45.8
07:50
Low
44.0
43.9
43.9
07:55
Medium
49.0
48.9
48.9
08:00
Medium
46.8
46.6
46.6
08:00
Medium
11.6%
11.8%
11.7%
08:30
Medium
51.7K
53.7K
54.2K
08:30
Medium
0.6B
0.4B
0.5B
08:30
Medium
0.9B
0.4B
0.3B
08:30
Medium
48.3
48.7
47.9
08:30
Low
3.1%
5.0%
5.8%
08:30
Low
-0.5%
0.9%
08:30
Low
0.5%
-0.8%
09:00
Medium
12.0%
12.0%
12.0%
10:00
Low
12:00
High
1.7%
1.8%
(MAR P) 12:00 EUR German Consumer Price Index (YoY) (MAR P) EUR German Consumer Price Index EU Harmonised (MoM) (MAR P) EUR German Consumer Price Index (MoM) (MAR P) USD ISM New York (MAR) USD Factory Orders (FEB) USD IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism (APR) (APR) EUR ECB's Coeure Speaks in Washington DC USD Fed's Kocherlakota Speaks on Monetary Policy in North Dakota USD Fed's Lockhart Speaks in Alabama USD Domestic Vehicle Sales (MAR) USD Total Vehicle Sales (MAR) GBP BRC Shop Price Index (YoY) (MAR) USD Fed's Evans, Lacker Speak on Monetary Policy in Richmond AUD HIA New Home Sales (MoM) (FEB) GBP Halifax House Price (3MoY) (MAR) GBP Halifax Plc House Prices s.a. (MoM) (MAR) 00:30 AUD Trade Balance (Australian dollar) (FEB) CNY Nonmanufacturing PMI (MAR) CNY HSBC Services PMI (MAR) GBP Purchasing Manager Index Construction (MAR)
High
1.3%
1.5%
12:00
Medium
0.3%
0.8%
12:00
Medium
0.4%
0.6%
13:45
Low
58.8
14:00
Medium
2.9%
-2.0%
14:00
Low
45.5
42.2
15:20
Low
17:00
Low
17:30
Low
21:00
Low
12.04M
11.99M
21:00
Low
15.30M
15.33M
23:01
Low
1.10%
23:30
Low
Wed Apr 3
00:00
Medium
4.2%
Low
1.1%
1.9%
Low
0.2%
0.5%
Medium
-1000M
-1057M
01:00
Medium
54.5
01:45
Medium
52.1
08:30
Medium
48.0
46.8
09:00
EUR Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index Estimate (YoY) (MAR) USD MBA Mortgage Applications (MAR 29) USD ADP Employment Change (MAR) USD ISM NonManufacutring Composite (MAR) USD DOE Cushing OK Crude Inventory (MAR 29) USD DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories (MAR 29) USD DOE U.S. Distillate Inventory (MAR 29) USD DOE U.S. Gasoline Inventories (MAR 29) USD Fed's Williams Speaks on Monetary Policy in Los Angeles USD Fed's Bullard to Introduce Lecture in St. Louis AUD AiG Performance of Service Index (MAR) JPY Foreign Buying Japan Bonds (Yen) (MAR 29) JPY Foreign Buying Japan Stocks (Yen) (MAR 29) JPY Japan Buying Foreign Bonds (Yen) (MAR 29) JPY Japan Buying Foreign Stocks (Yen) (MAR 29) JPY Bank of Japan Rate Decision (APR 4)
Medium
1.6%
1.8%
11:00
Low
7.7%
12:15
Medium
200K
198K
14:00
Medium
55.6
56
14:30
Low
439K
14:30
Low
2250K
3256K
14:30
Low
-750K
-4513K
14:30
Low
-1000K
-1596K
19:30
Low
21:00
Low
22:30
Medium
48.5
23:50
Low
-975.2B
23:50
Low
-267.6B
23:50
Low
-490.5B
23:50
Thu Apr 4
Low
-640.2B
High
0.10%
0.10%
00:30
AUD Building Approvals (YoY) (FEB) AUD Retail Sales s.a. (MoM) (FEB) AUD Building Approvals (MoM) (FEB) EUR Italian Purchasing Manager Index Services (MAR) EUR French Purchasing Manager Index Services (MAR F)
Medium
14.3%
9.9%
00:30
Medium
0.3%
0.9%
00:30
Low
2.5%
-2.4%
07:45
Low
43.5
43.6
07:50
Low
41.9
41.9
07:55
EUR German Purchasing Manager Index Services (MAR F) EUR Euro-Zone Purchasing Manager Index Composite (MAR F) EUR Euro-Zone Purchasing Manager Index Services (MAR F) GBP Purchasing Manager Index Services (MAR) GBP Official Reserves (Changes) (MAR) EUR Euro-Zone Producer Price Index (YoY) (FEB) EUR Euro-Zone Producer Price Index (MoM) (FEB) GBP BOE Asset Purchase Target (APR) GBP Bank of England Rate Decision (APR 4) USD Challenger Job Cuts (YoY) (MAR) USD RBC Consumer Outlook Index (APR) EUR European Central Bank Rate Decision (APR 4) EUR ECB Deposit Facility Rate (APR 4) USD Initial Jobless Claims (MAR 30) USD Continuing Claims (MAR 23) USD Fed's Evans, Lockhart Speak on Monetary Policy in Ohio USD EIA Natural Gas Storage Change (MAR 29) USD Fed's George Speaks on Economy in Oklahoma USD Fed's Yellen Speaks in Washington JPY Official Reserve Assets (MAR) GBP New Car Registrations (YoY) (MAR)
Medium
51.6
51.6
08:00
Medium
46.5
46.5
08:00
Medium
46.5
46.5
08:30
Medium
51.5
51.8
08:30
Low
-$1333M
09:00
Medium
1.4%
1.9%
09:00
Low
0.2%
0.6%
11:00
High
375B
375B
11:00
High
0.50%
0.50%
11:30
Low
7.0%
11:30
Low
47.1
11:45
High
0.75%
0.75%
11:45
Medium
0.00%
0.00%
12:30
Medium
353K
357K
12:30
Low
3065K
3050K
12:45
Low
14:30
Low
-95
16:30
Low
21:00
Low
23:50
Fri Apr 5
Low
$1258.8B
Low
7.9%
05:00
JPY Bank of Japan's Monthly Economic Report for April (Table) JPY Leading Index (FEB P) JPY Coincident Index (FEB P) CHF Foreign Currency Reserves (MAR) EUR Italian Deficit to GDP (YTD) (4Q) EUR Euro-Zone Retail Sales (YoY) (FEB) EUR Euro-Zone Retail Sales (MoM) (FEB) EUR German Factory Orders n.s.a. (YoY) (FEB) EUR German Factory Orders s.a. (MoM) (FEB) CAD Net Change in Employment (MAR) CAD Unemployment Rate (MAR) USD Change in Nonfarm Payrolls (MAR) USD Unemployment Rate (MAR) CAD Full Time Employment Change (MAR) USD Average Hourly Earnings All Employees (MoM) (MAR) USD Average Hourly Earnings All Employees (YoY) (MAR) USD Change in Household Employment (MAR) USD Change in Private Payrolls (MAR) USD Trade Balance (FEB) USD Two-Month Payroll Net Revision (MAR) USD Underemployment Rate (U6) (MAR) CAD International Merchandise Trade (Canadian dollar) (FEB)
Medium
05:00
Medium
97.3
95
05:00
Low
91.9
91.6
07:00
Low
427.0B
430.0B
08:00
Medium
3.7%
09:00
High
-1.2%
-1.3%
09:00
Medium
-0.4%
1.2%
10:00
Medium
-1.5%
-2.5%
10:00
Low
1.1%
-2.5%
12:30
High
5.0K
50.7K
12:30
High
7.0%
7.0%
12:30
High
199K
236K
12:30
High
7.7%
7.7%
12:30
Medium
33.6
12:30
Medium
0.2%
0.2%
12:30
Medium
2.0%
2.1%
12:30
Medium
170
12:30
Medium
203K
246K
12:30
Medium
-$44.6B
-$44.4B
12:30
Medium
-15K
12:30
Medium
14.3%
12:30
Low
0.10B
-0.24B
12:30
CAD Part Time Employment Change (MAR)
Low
17.2
12:30
CAD Participation Rate (MAR) USD Average Weekly Hours All Employees (MAR) USD Change in Manufacturing Payrolls (MAR) CAD Ivey Purchasing Managers Index s.a (MAR) USD Consumer Credit (FEB)
Low
66.7
66.7
12:30
Low
34.5
34.5
12:30
Low
10K
14K
14:00
Medium
52.2
51.1
19:00
Medium
$15.000B
$16.151B
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