Dane Brugler, The Athletic’s lead draft analyst, released his first post-combine mock draft Tuesday. Perhaps his most interesting projection revolved around the Pittsburgh Steelers, who landed polarizing quarterback Shedeur Sanders with the 21st pick.
“Sanders is going to be a wild card in this draft,” Brugler wrote. “He could go in the top six or fall out of the first round entirely — and neither outcome would be a shock. He is not a first-round quarterback for a lot of NFL teams, which isn’t a major surprise (and matches my evaluation). But all it takes is one front office to roll the dice on his skill set.”
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It’s no secret the Steelers are in the market for a quarterback. Though owner and team president Art Rooney II said his preference is for the organization to re-sign either Russell Wilson or Justin Fields, he expects the team will at least look for a quarterback in the draft this year or next year.
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But what are the chances Sanders will land in the Steelers’ lap at No. 21? And would they make that pick if he’s still on the board? Let’s look at this from a few angles.
The QB market
The Steelers need a quarterback at a somewhat inconvenient time. All of the free-agent candidates come with concerns. The QB draft class as a whole is underwhelming, especially compared with last year, when six passers were selected in the first round. Even if the Steelers ink a deal with Fields or Wilson, there’s no guarantee either would be the long-term solution.
The issue is Pittsburgh isn’t the only team in this situation. The Tennessee Titans, Cleveland Browns, New York Giants, Las Vegas Raiders and New York Jets all pick in the top seven and could be in the market for a quarterback in free agency or the draft. The New Orleans Saints (picking ninth) might part ways with Derek Carr or could look ahead to their future even if the veteran remains on the roster. Another dark horse candidate to pick a quarterback is the Indianapolis Colts (picking 14th), whose general manager, Chris Ballard, said he wants to create a QB competition with Anthony Richardson.
That makes five to seven possible destinations before the Steelers are on the clock. Though opinions are mixed, it would take just one team falling in love with Sanders to put him out of Pittsburgh’s range.
Meanwhile, Ole Miss QB Jaxson Dart has been rising up draft boards through this process after a strong Senior Bowl and a solid performance at the combine. If he leapfrogs Sanders to become QB2, that could push the Colorado QB down the board.
When the dominoes begin falling in free agency, the number of QB-needy teams might come into focus. If a team pays big money for Fields to lure him away from the Steelers, that team probably won’t draft a first-round QB. But a team that signs Wilson or Aaron Rodgers might be more inclined to look ahead and use the veteran as a bridge.
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Is Sanders a first-round talent?
Opinions vary significantly on Sanders. Our resident X’s and O’s expert, Ted Nguyen, published a great breakdown of Sanders’ strengths and weaknesses Tuesday.
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Nguyen explained that Sanders — who was mentored by Tom Brady in college — reads defenses at a high level and that accuracy is one of his best traits. However, the knock on Sanders is that he doesn’t have outstanding physical gifts, such as an elite arm or mobility.
“Sanders consistently underthrows passes and lacks zip,” Nguyen wrote. “He can’t put the ball on a line on deeper throws, which will be a problem in the NFL. Many of his throws are slightly behind his receivers, and he doesn’t hit them in stride because his passes don’t get to his intended target with enough pace.”
When Nguyen described Sanders as a quarterback with a “high floor,” alarm bells went off in my head. That was the same term the Steelers used for Kenny Pickett shortly after he was drafted. We all know how that went.
It’s also worth noting that coach Mike Tomlin is a fan of players with NFL bloodlines. The Steelers have drafted (or signed) many such players, including Cameron Heyward, Connor Heyward, T.J. Watt, Terrell Edmunds and Nick Herbig. Perhaps the coach will feel similarly about Deion Sanders’ son. But truly, it’s impossible to know how the Steelers have evaluated Sanders right now.
Opportunity cost
Though the Steelers might have a winning lottery ticket if they pick Sanders in the first round, there are also inherent risks. One of the biggest drawbacks is that it would prevent them from substantially addressing other positions, such as defensive tackle or wide receiver in the first round.
Through his first two drafts, GM Omar Khan has taken a patient approach. He’s played the long game, targeting players at positions that aren’t necessarily flashy, such as offensive linemen, rather than taking big swings on skill position players.
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It seems more likely the Steelers will stick to their process by bolstering their defensive line or beginning to round out their receivers room. Ultimately, the team must weigh its options and decide whether to draft a QB who might be the future or grab a D-lineman who will be much easier to project at the next level.
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2026 factor
The other key variable is the 2026 quarterback class. Brugler said that even the top QB in this class, Cam Ward, wouldn’t be ranked higher than maybe fifth or sixth in last year’s class. Next year’s quarterback class — which could include the much-hyped Arch Manning — is considered much stronger.
If the Steelers do draft Sanders, they would need to commit to years of development. Doing so would take them out of the running for a quarterback next season. You don’t draft a QB in the first round only to give up on him in a year.
My sense is the Steelers would prefer to run it back with Fields or Wilson, continue to round out their roster and then take a more substantial look at rookie QBs in 2026. They could also take a flier on a mid- to late-round QB this spring who would serve as a backup and a developmental project. Perhaps the pre-draft visitors will begin to give us an idea of how the Steelers are thinking about the quarterbacks. Until then, let speculation season continue.
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(Photo: Andrew Wevers / Getty Images)
