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2:00PM Water Cooler 2/27/2025

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By Lambert Strether.

Readers, the fundraiser for my very nearly gold retirement watch + all my Water Cooler work done in 2024 is ongoing. The goal is 400 donors; as of this writing, we have 275, or 68% of goal. Good progress! Thank you. I hope we can close this out Friday, tomorrow, my last day. Any amount helps! If you can give a little, give a little. If you can give a lot, give a lot! Thank you all so much! –lambert IMPORTANT Donors who have monthly subscriptions to Water Cooler in PayPal should cancel them next month, so you are not paying me for work I am no longer doing!

Bird Song of the Day

American Robin, 138 Captains Dr, West Babylon, Suffolk, New York, United States. “American Robin singing from the top of a building before dawn.” I’ve always wondered why Babylon and not, say, “Gomorrah.” Here is the story.

* * *

In Case You Might Miss…

  1. Executive Order details DOGE’s Bolshevik-style structure and operation.
  2. DOGE as class war.
  3. Cuomo floats Presidential trial balloon.
  4. Employment figures warn of a souring economy.

Politics

“So many of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are in fact a rational management of symbolic capital.” –Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles

* * *

Trump Administration

Caution, supergenius at work:

“Trump administration struggles to rehire fired bird flu employees” [Politico]. “The Trump administration touted a nearly $1 billion plan Wednesday to combat the spread of avian flu and mitigate skyrocketing egg prices as the outbreak rips through poultry flocks across the United States. But the measures come as the Agriculture Department is struggling to rehire key employees working on the virus outbreak who were fired as part of the administration’s sweeping purge of government workers. Roughly a quarter of employees in a critical office testing for the disease were cut, as well as scientists and inspectors. The dismissals have already helped trigger a partial shutdown at one of the department’s research facilities, according to two USDA employees, interrupting some workers’ efforts to fight bird flu and help livestock recover from illness. Now, agency officials are running into logistical challenges in reinstating its bird flu staff — and convincing them to return to jobs while the president repeatedly attempts to squeeze government workers.” • BWA-HA-HA-HA-HA!!!! And now people are responding to high egg prices by raising backyard chickens. Nothing to worry abot there!

“VA pauses billions in cuts lauded by Musk as lawmakers and veterans decry loss of critical care” [Associated Press]. “The Department of Veterans Affairs has temporarily suspended billions of dollars in planned contract cuts following concerns that the move would hurt critical veterans’ health services, lawmakers and veterans service organizations said Wednesday. The pause affects hundreds of VA contracts that Secretary Doug Collins a day earlier described as simply consulting deals, whose cancellation would save $2 billion as the Trump administration works to slash costs across the federal government…. The Associated Press has obtained the full list of 875 affected contracts, which shows the cuts would affect everything from cancer care to the ability to assess toxic exposure. The list underscores how the Trump administration’s approach to broad spending reductions has immediate and potentially unintended consequences, generating significant concern not just among Democrats but also Republican lawmakers.”

* * *

“Top Social Security deputies leave amid rumored staff cuts” [Government Executive]. “Most of the Social Security Administration’s regional commissioners have decided to retire at the end of this week, following mysterious meetings with agency leaders about plans to slash its workforce. At least five of the eight regional commissioners whose offices oversee and support the agency’s frontline offices across the country are leaving, according to a source familiar with the agency and an SSA employee not authorized to speak on the record. The Social Security Administration had largely been spared by the Trump administration’s early efforts to cut staff across government, receiving exemptions for frontline workers from the ‘deferred-resignation’ program, Voluntary Early Retirement Authority, and the purge of workers who had been recently hired or promoted. But that apparently changed this week, triggering the wave of retirement announcements.” And: “Multiple news outlets reported Wednesday that Acting Commissioner Leland Dudek is looking to halve the agency’s staff of about 57,000 employees. But two SSA employees told Government Executive that an executive at the agency said in an internal meeting that Dudek wants to cut the SSA workforce by about 7,000 people. Another person familiar with the situation also confirmed that Dudek’s goal is to get the workforce down to 50,000. It’s not clear whether this includes frontline staff.” • No reason to cut support if you’re not going to cut benefits later. (Speculating freely, there will be a hilarious but doomed effort to prevent AI call centers from hallucinating, that should take three or four years to play out.)

“50% Cuts at Social Security Administration, According to TAP” [Talking Points Memo]. “I’ve spent the last 24 hours trying to confirm or refute pervasive rumors throughout the Social Security Administration that the agency is about to announce an across-the-board cut of 50% of staff. The decision was purportedly announced at an afternoon meeting yesterday by Acting Commissioner Leland Dudek. He asked for a plan for 50% cuts to be presented to him this afternoon. I have not been able to confirm this. But David Dayen at The American Prospect appears to have found two people who were in the meeting and do confirm it. Here’s David’s report. It’s been hard to imagine that they were actually contemplating this, not because it’s horrible but because it’s likely to have such dramatic (and likely political costly) impacts on tens of millions of Americans. But here we are.”

“As DOGE Attacks Social Security, New Report Shows Elon Is One of the Government’s Biggest Beneficiaries” [Gizmodo]. “In recent weeks, DOGE has been helping to terminate leases for SSA offices across the country, leading to planned closures in locations like Michigan, New York, West Virginia, Ohio, Arkansas, Texas, and others.”

* * *

“Musk’s Ex-Twitter Workers Win Severance Over ‘Fork in the Road’ Email” [Bloomberg]. “Four ex-Twitter workers have prevailed in a recent series of closed-door arbitration proceedings over claims they were illegally denied severance, according to a memo seen by Bloomberg News. More than two years ago, Musk asked Twitter employees in an email with the subject line ‘A Fork in the Road’ to either commit to an ‘extremely hardcore’ work environment or leave the company. Musk’s cost-cutting strategies have been thrust into the national spotlight with a similar hardline approach to thin out the federal workforce — which included recently sending more than two million federal workers an email with the same “Fork in the Road” subject line. The email gave employees the option to resign but be paid through the end of September, while warning them of upcoming downsizing.

The email was sent as Musk began his new role spearheading a federal cost-cutting effort as a key adviser to the Department of Government Efficiency under President Donald Trump. At Twitter, now known as X, the four workers argued successfully that although they didn’t respond to the email, they did not resign and were instead terminated, meaning they were entitled to severance promised by the company before Musk bought it.The victories for the four employees haven’t previously been reported. The similar emails sent to federal workers are now the subject of several lawsuits. Musk and representatives of X didn’t respond to requests for comment.” • No doubt!

* * *

“Conservative commentators seen with ‘Epstein Files’ binders after AG Bondi promises docs release'” [Associated Press]. ” Conservative political commentators were spotted at the White House Thursday holding binders that read ‘The Epstein Files’ hours after Attorney General Pam Bondi promised the release of documents about wealthy financier Jeffrey Epstein, who sexually abused underage girls. It was not immediately clear what was in the binders, which have not been released publicly by the Justice Department. The binders read ‘declassified,’ but it was not immediately clear whether the information contained in the binders ever had been classified. Among those holding the binders was political commentator Rogan O’Handley, also known as DC Draino. Bondi said Wednesday on Fox News that the documents would include flight logs and “a lot of names,” though it was unclear whether there would be details not already publicly known.” • These files are being released so slowly — and I assume selectively, since a simple document dump would be quick — that we might as well be in the molasses-brained Biden administration. And to think I shivered with antici… pation.

DOGE

“IMPLEMENTING THE PRESIDENT’S “DEPARTMENT OF GOVERNMENT EFFICIENCY” COST EFFICIENCY INITIATIVE” [The White House].

This is an implementation of the Bolshevik-style party structure parallel to govenment agencies we have previously seen. Nominally, the agency heads are in charge (see the highlights), but in practice that might change, if the “DOGEbag Team Lead” is a slithering weasel named “Big Bag,” whose trump card, at any show of resistance or disagreement, is “Do I need to call Elon?” The structure implies that the DOGE teams are there to help governement function better. That assumes facts not in evidence. And needless to say, this will need to be ripped out by the roots when DOGE’s time is up — if that ever happens — because otherwise we have a permanent change to the constitutiona order that nobody asked for or voted on.

* * *

“GOP senators vent Musk frustrations at closed-door meeting” [The Hill]. “Republican senators vented their concerns about tech billionaire Elon Musk’s aggressive approach to freezing federal spending and cutting government jobs during a private meeting with White House chief of staff Susie Wiles on Wednesday…. Every day’s another surprise,” Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine) said of the daily bombshells from Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE). ‘It would be better to allow Cabinet secretaries to carefully review their departments and then make surgical, strategic decisions on what programs and people should be cut and then come back to Congress for approval,’ she said.” As Clinton/Gore did. More: “Wiles acknowledged the GOP senators’ concerns and urged them to contact her directly if they have any problems as a result of Musk’s blitz through the federal workforce.” And this is actually sane: “[Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.)] said Musk and DOGE should serve as advisers to Trump’s Cabinet officials instead of taking the lead on major policy decisions themselves. ‘We’re talking about governmental entities, a lot of complexity. That’s why I believe that DOGE will most likely morph into being an adviser to these Senate-confirmed heads of agencies fairly soon,’ he said.” Note the EO above; nominally, that is the structure. And: “‘Otherwise, I just have a real problem. If I get confirmed as the head of an agency, a Cabinet-level position, [and] I’ve got somebody else that is pretending — or that is acting as my boss, that’s a real problem,’ he added. ‘At the end of the day, you’ve got to have all those employees thinking that you’re looking out for the agencies and their best interests.'” • So let’s see how Wiles copes. Maybe there will be an interview with Elon’s ketamine supplier in the Daily Mail….

Democrats en déshabillé

“Andrew Cuomo seen as possible White House candidate by some Democrats” [The Hill]. “Former New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo (D) is days away from potentially entering the New York City mayor’s race. But even before Cuomo is set to make that announcement, some Democrats are already tossing around his name for a bigger race: the 2028 presidential campaign. Since their loss in November, Democrats have been anxious to find a voice not only to lead them out of the wilderness but also to stand up to President Trump and the slew of actions he’s taken in his second term. Cuomo, with his brash, in-your-face style, they say, could shape up to be a dark horse candidate in what is set to be a wide-open race.” • Cuomo never was held responsible for slaughtering thousands of elders in nursing homes during the first wave of Covid, so the only remaining problem is the sex scandal!

“Sanders reintroducing measure increasing Social Security benefits” [The Hill]. “Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) is reintroducing a measure that would increase Social Security benefits. Sanders is joined by Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) and Reps. Jan Schakowsky (D-Ill.) and Val Hoyle (D-Ore.) on the bill, titled the Social Security Expansion Act. It would expand Social Security benefits by $2,400 a year and ensure the federal program is funded for the next 75 years through a tax on households making more than $250,000 a year, according to Sanders’s news release. The lawmakers noted that it would not raise taxes at all for households that make less than $250,000 annually, which is more than 90 percent of Americans. ‘At a time when nearly half of older Americans have no retirement savings and over 26 percent of seniors are trying to survive on an income of less than $17,500 a year, our job is not to cut Social Security as many of our Republican colleagues want to do,’ Sanders said in a statement.” • Where are Schumer and Jeffries on this? In fact, where are Schumer and Jeffries?

Realignment and Legitimacy

“DOGE is waging a class war on America’s new clerisy” [Spiked]. “The class dynamics at play in DOGE are not as straightforward as some would have it. It’s not simply a case of Musk, the billionaire oligarch, ruthlessly attacking the lowly administrator. The impetus for DOGE is primarily driven by a conflict within the middle class. On one side are public workers whose pay, and pensions, well exceed those in the private sector. On the other, there are millions who pay tax and feel harassed by regulations, particularly among Trump’s base of small business owners. Millions of middle- and working-class families not sucking the federal teat are falling ever behind the affluent elites, who seem to control the state whichever party is in power. Throughout the Biden years, government employment and related sectors, notably in health services, have emerged as the only consistently growing high-wage sectors, a pattern evident both in the last month of his administration and Trump’s first. In contrast, material sectors, like manufacturing and mining, have slumped. In the first three years of Biden’s presidency, the ranks of government workers, at all levels, expanded by 1.5million. In 2024, the federal government reached its highest worker count in two decades. President Biden’s budget for 2025, signed in March last year, envisaged total spending to be more than 60 per cent higher than it was in 2019.” • Anecdotally:

Not sure why the dude was even in Georgetown. His bio reads: “Healthcare sales, Investor and son of a credit trader,” so presumably some grift lol.

Analytically:

Data Republican is a super-interesting account (slowly emergent, not at all sure spontaneously). Worth a follow:

Syndemics

“I am in earnest — I will not equivocate — I will not excuse — I will not retreat a single inch — AND I WILL BE HEARD.” –William Lloyd Garrison

* * *

Covid Resources, United States (National): Transmission (CDC); Wastewater (CDC, Biobot; includes many counties; Wastewater Scan, includes drilldown by zip); Variants (CDC; Walgreens); “Iowa COVID-19 Tracker” (in IA, but national data). “Infection Control, Emergency Management, Safety, and General Thoughts” (especially on hospitalization by city).

Lambert here: Readers, thanks for the collective effort. To update any entry, do feel free to contact me at the address given with the plants. Please put “COVID” in the subject line. Thank you!

Resources, United States (Local): AK (dashboard); AL (dashboard); AR (dashboard); AZ (dashboard); CA (dashboard; Marin, dashboard; Stanford, wastewater; Oakland, wastewater); CO (dashboard; wastewater); CT (dashboard); DE (dashboard); FL (wastewater); GA (wastewater); HI (dashboard); IA (wastewater reports); ID (dashboard, Boise; dashboard, wastewater, Central Idaho; wastewater, Coeur d’Alene; dashboard, Spokane County); IL (wastewater); IN (dashboard); KS (dashboard; wastewater, Lawrence); KY (dashboard, Louisville); LA (dashboard); MA (wastewater); MD (dashboard); ME (dashboard); MI (wastewater; wastewater); MN (dashboard); MO (wastewater); MS (dashboard); MT (dashboard); NC (dashboard); ND (dashboard; wastewater); NE (dashboard); NH (wastewater); NJ (dashboard); NM (dashboard); NV (dashboard; wastewater, Southern NV); NY (dashboard); OH (dashboard); OK (dashboard); OR (dashboard); PA (dashboard); RI (dashboard); SC (dashboard); SD (dashboard); TN (dashboard); TX (dashboard); UT (wastewater); VA (wastewater); VT (dashboard); WA (dashboard; dashboard); WI (wastewater); WV (wastewater); WY (wastewater).

Resources, Canada (National): Wastewater (Government of Canada).

Resources, Canada (Provincial): ON (wastewater); QC (les eaux usées); BC (wastewater); BC, Vancouver (wastewater).

Hat tips to helpful readers: Alexis, anon (2), Art_DogCT, B24S, CanCyn, ChiGal, Chuck L, Festoonic, FM, FreeMarketApologist (4), Gumbo, hop2it, JB, JEHR, JF, JL Joe, John, JM (10), JustAnotherVolunteer, JW, KatieBird, KF, KidDoc, LL, Michael King, KF, LaRuse, mrsyk, MT, MT_Wild, otisyves, Petal (6), RK (2), RL, RM, Rod, square coats (11), tennesseewaltzer, thump, Tom B., Utah, Bob White (3).

Stay safe out there!

Airborne Transmission

“An integrated airborne transmission risk assessment model for respiratory viruses: short- and long-range contributions” [Journal of the Royal Society]. From the Abstract: “This study presents an advanced airborne transmission risk assessment model that integrates both short- and long-range routes in the spread of respiratory viruses, building upon the CERN Airborne Model for Indoor Risk Assessment (CAiMIRA) and aligned with the new World Health Organization (WHO) terminology. Thanks to a two-stage exhaled jet approach, the model accurately simulates short-range exposures, thereby improving infection risk predictions across diverse indoor settings. Key findings reveal that in patient wards, the short-range viral dose is 10-fold higher than the long-range component, highlighting the critical role of close proximity interactions. Implementation of FFP2 respirators resulted in a remarkable 13-fold reduction in viral dose, underscoring the effectiveness of personal protective equipment (PPE). Additionally, the model demonstrated that an 8 h exposure in a poorly ventilated office can equate to the risk of a 15 min face-to-face, mask-less interaction, emphasizing the importance of physical distancing and source control.” • Worth a careful read. Commentary:

In the Wells-Riley model, the main assumption was that the air within the room was well mixed. Obviously not so.

* * *

TABLE 1: Daily Covid Charts

Wastewater
This week[1] CDC February 17 Last week[2] CDC (until next week):

Variants [3] CDC February 15 Emergency Room Visits[4] CDC February 15

Hospitalization
★ New York[5] New York State, data February 25: National [6] CDC February 20:

Positivity
National[7] Walgreens February 24: Ohio[8] Cleveland Clinic February 15:

Travelers Data
Positivity[9] CDC February 3: Variants[10] CDC February 3

Deaths
Weekly Deaths vs. % Positivity [11] CDC January 25: Weekly Deaths vs. ED Visits [12] CDC January 25:

LEGEND

1) ★ for charts new today; all others are not updated.

2) For a full-size/full-resolution image, Command-click (MacOS) or right-click (Windows) on the chart thumbnail and “open image in new tab.”

NOTES

[1] (CDC) Down, nothing new at major hubs.

[2] (CDC) Last week’s wastewater map.

[3] (CDC Variants) XEC takes over. That WHO label, “Ommicron,” has done a great job normalizing successive waves of infection.

[4] (ED) A little uptick.

[5] (Hospitalization: NY) Weird plateau without exponential growrht

[6] (Hospitalization: CDC). Leveling out.

[7] (Walgreens) Leveling out.

[8] (Cleveland)

[9] (Travelers: Positivity) Uptick.

[10] (Travelers: Variants). Don’t know what the dominance of XEC is all about,

[11] Deaths low, positivity leveling out.

[12] Deaths low, ED leveling out.

Stats Watch

Employment Situation: “United States Initial Jobless Claims” [Trading Economics]. “Initial jobless claims in the US soared by 22,000 from the previous week to 242,000 on the third week of February, the most in over two months and well above market expectations that they would remain stable at 221,000.” • I wonder why. ‘Tis a mystery!

GDP: “United States GDP Growth Rate” [Trading Economics]. “The US economy expanded an annualized 2.3% in Q4 2024, the slowest growth in three quarters, down from 3.1% in Q3 and in line with the advance estimate.”

Manufacturing: “United States Durable Goods Orders” [Trading Economics]. “New orders for manufactured durable goods in the US rose 3.1% month-over-month to $282.3 billion in January 2025, the most in six months and above market expectations of a 2% increase. It follows a downwardly revised 1.8% drop in December. The rebound was driven by transportation equipment, which surged 9.8%, particularly nondefense aircraft and parts (93.9%).”

Manufacturing: “United States Kansas Fed Manufacturing Index” [Trading Economics]. “The Kansas City Fed’s Manufacturing Production Index fell to -13 in February 2025, the lowest in five months. The declines were driven more by nondurable manufacturing, particularly food, chemical, and paper manufacturing.”

* * *

The Economy: “Economists are starting to worry about a serious Trump recession” [Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, The Telegraph]. “Donald Trump’s assault on the US federal government and the world’s interlinked manufacturing system have together reached an economic tipping point. ‘It seems almost unavoidable that we are headed for a deep, deep recession,” said Jesse Rothstein, Berkeley professor and former chief economist at the US labour department. Once the pace of job losses crosses a critical line, the multiplier effects can snowball suddenly. Prof Rothstein said monthly non-farm payrolls – the barometer of US economic health watched closely by markets – could turn viciously negative by late spring, contracting at rates surpassed only during the worst months of Covid and the Lehman crisis in 2008. ‘I think we’re going to see historically large drops. Losses of 400,000 a month are not implausible because people are getting nervous out there. It is not just the federal employees being fired: it’s all the other people worried they could be next, so they are cutting back too,’ he told The Telegraph. Torsten Slok, of Apollo Global, said layoffs could approach 1m after factoring in the likely chain reaction through contractors. ‘We are starting to worry about the downside risks to the economy and markets,’ he said. Mr Slok said it is a mystery as to why credit spreads and equities are still so well-behaved when the US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index was now higher than at any time during the great recession. Prof Rothstein said the damage would not show up immediately due to lag effects. The ugly months will be in April and May, but by then secondary shocks will have spread far and wide.”

Manufacturing: “Airbus has not taken full advantage of Boeing’s weakness” [The Economist]. “Even if Boeing can restore its reputation and ramp up production, Airbus will maintain its lead in narrow-body jets for some time. The American firm hopes to raise the rate of 737 max production to around 38 planes a month later this year. Airbus already makes around 50 a month of its competing a320 family, and hopes to increase that to around 75 by 2027. Yet both firms are weighed down by supply chains struggling to recover after severe cutbacks during the pandemic. And Airbus’s lead in narrow-body jets is not mirrored in wide-body ones. In 2024 Boeing delivered 83 twin-aisle planes, only six fewer than Airbus. The A220, a smaller passenger jet, remains unprofitable and A320 production hardly grew at all in 2024. Both firms may also be distracted by difficulties in other divisions. Boeing’s defence-and-space arm has lost money for three years. Airbus’s space business took charges of €1.3bn last year amid troubles at its satellite unit.

With the duopoly’s combined backlog now up to 14,000 orders, would-be competitors are looking to cut in. One is COMAC, China’s state-owned planemaker. Its C919 narrow-body jet will not constitute much of a threat for some time—just 30 deliveries are planned for 2025—but could eventually take market share in China and elsewhere. Rumours that Embraer, a Brazilian maker of smaller regional jets, is considering taking on the Airbus-Boeing duopoly are growing louder.” • Assuming the upper atmosphere remains stable, of course.

Tech: “On the consistent reasoning paradox of intelligence and optimal trust in AI: The power of ‘I don’t know'” [arXiv]. From the Abstract: “We introduce the Consistent Reasoning Paradox (CRP). Consistent reasoning, which lies at the core of human intelligence, is the ability to handle tasks that are equivalent, yet described by different sentences (‘Tell me the time!’ and ‘What is the time?’). The CRP asserts that consistent reasoning implies fallibility — in particular, human-like intelligence in AI necessarily comes with human-like fallibility. Specifically, it states that there are problems, e.g. in basic arithmetic, where any AI that always answers and strives to mimic human intelligence by reasoning consistently will hallucinate (produce wrong, yet plausible answers) infinitely often. The paradox is that there exists a non-consistently reasoning AI (which therefore cannot be on the level of human intelligence) that will be correct on the same set of problems. The CRP also shows that detecting these hallucinations, even in a probabilistic sense, is strictly harder than solving the original problems, and that there are problems that an AI may answer correctly, but it cannot provide a correct logical explanation for how it arrived at the answer. Therefore, the CRP implies that any trustworthy AI (i.e., an AI that never answers incorrectly) that also reasons consistently must be able to say ‘I don’t know’. Moreover, this can only be done by implicitly computing a new concept that we introduce, termed the ‘I don’t know’ function — something currently lacking in modern AI. In view of these insights, the CRP also provides a glimpse into the behaviour of Artificial General Intelligence (AGI). An AGI cannot be ‘almost sure’, nor can it always explain itself, and therefore to be trustworthy it must be able to say ‘I don’t know’.” • AI = BS, as I said when the bubble began to inflate. Imagine a bullshitter who can’t put a bridle on this mouth! Commentary:

Tech: Let no one else’s work evade your eyes:

Tech: “Tracking You from a Thousand Miles Away! Turning a Bluetooth Device into an Apple AirTag Without Root Privileges” [nroottag]. “Apple’s Find My network, leveraging over a billion active Apple devices, is the world’s largest device-locating network. We investigate the potential misuse of this network to maliciously track Bluetooth devices. We present nRootTag, a novel attack method that transforms computers into trackable “AirTags” without requiring root privileges. The attack achieves a success rate of over 90% within minutes at a cost of only a few US dollars. Or, a rainbow table can be built to search keys instantly. Subsequently, it can locate a computer in minutes, posing a substantial risk to user privacy and safety. The attack is effective on Linux, Windows, and Android systems, and can be employed to track desktops, laptops, smartphones, and IoT devices. Our comprehensive evaluation demonstrates nRootTag’s effectiveness and efficiency across various scenarios.” • Yikes!

* * *

Today’s Fear & Greed Index: 23 Extreme Fear (previous close: 22 Extreme Fear) [CNN]. One week ago: 46 (Neutral). (0 is Extreme Fear; 100 is Extreme Greed). Last updated Feb 26 at 1:44:02 PM ET.

Musical Interlude

One reader asked for a railroad tune:

“I’d probably move it just a little farther down the line.”

Gallery

I wanted to make a joke about aptronyms and “Whistler,” but unfortunately this painting turns out to be by Turner:

Class Warfare

“ILA Members Ratify 6-Year Contract with Accommodations for Technology” [Maritime Executive]. “The membership of the International Longshoremen’s’ Association officially ratified the new 6-year contract on Tuesday, February 25, bringing to close one of the most contentious contract negotiations in decades. The ILA is calling the new contract the ‘gold standard’ for dockworker unions globally while saying with the ratification there would be ‘labor peace’ and that the ILA would be working in partnership with USMX to help all ILA ports grow and flourish…. [ILA President Harold Daggett] is publicly declaring a key win saying it is the greatest contract in ILA history. He reports it provides ‘full protections against automation,’ without providing details on the contract terms. The ILA had firmly declared it would not accept automation or semi-automation for any port operations. In December 2024, then President-elect Donald Trump met with the union leaders. He also issued a strong statement against port automation.” • Hmm.

News of the Wired

“Winners of the $10,000 ISBN visualization bounty” [Anna’s Blog]. “Ultimately we wanted to answer the following questions: which books exist in the world, how many have we archived already, and which books should we focus on next? It’s great to see so many people care about these questions.” • Very neat, and also… books! On Anna’s Archive.

* * *

Contact information for plants: Readers, feel free to contact me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, to (a) find out how to send me a check if you are allergic to PayPal and (b) to find out how to send me images of plants. Vegetables are fine! Fungi, lichen, and coral are deemed to be honorary plants! If you want your handle to appear as a credit, please place it at the start of your mail in parentheses: (thus). Otherwise, I will anonymize by using your initials. See the previous Water Cooler (with plant) here. From AM:

AM writes: “Roses in July 2021 at a rental house in Devon, England.”

* * *

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About Lambert Strether

Readers, I have had a correspondent characterize my views as realistic cynical. Let me briefly explain them. I believe in universal programs that provide concrete material benefits, especially to the working class. Medicare for All is the prime example, but tuition-free college and a Post Office Bank also fall under this heading. So do a Jobs Guarantee and a Debt Jubilee. Clearly, neither liberal Democrats nor conservative Republicans can deliver on such programs, because the two are different flavors of neoliberalism (“Because markets”). I don’t much care about the “ism” that delivers the benefits, although whichever one does have to put common humanity first, as opposed to markets. Could be a second FDR saving capitalism, democratic socialism leashing and collaring it, or communism razing it. I don’t much care, as long as the benefits are delivered. To me, the key issue — and this is why Medicare for All is always first with me — is the tens of thousands of excess “deaths from despair,” as described by the Case-Deaton study, and other recent studies. That enormous body count makes Medicare for All, at the very least, a moral and strategic imperative. And that level of suffering and organic damage makes the concerns of identity politics — even the worthy fight to help the refugees Bush, Obama, and Clinton’s wars created — bright shiny objects by comparison. Hence my frustration with the news flow — currently in my view the swirling intersection of two, separate Shock Doctrine campaigns, one by the Administration, and the other by out-of-power liberals and their allies in the State and in the press — a news flow that constantly forces me to focus on matters that I regard as of secondary importance to the excess deaths. What kind of political economy is it that halts or even reverses the increases in life expectancy that civilized societies have achieved? I am also very hopeful that the continuing destruction of both party establishments will open the space for voices supporting programs similar to those I have listed; let’s call such voices “the left.” Volatility creates opportunity, especially if the Democrat establishment, which puts markets first and opposes all such programs, isn’t allowed to get back into the saddle. Eyes on the prize! I love the tactical level, and secretly love even the horse race, since I’ve been blogging about it daily for fourteen years, but everything I write has this perspective at the back of it.

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142 comments

  1. Wukchumni

    ,rades,

    We must let Errorstroika run its course, it isn’t as if the ad hoc restructuring is going to do it by itself. (gulp)

  2. Di Modica's Dumb Steer

    A deep dive into Jack Ruby with a cameo or two from everyone’s favorite doctor, Louis “Jolly” West. Hope this hasn’t already been covered.

    https://www.kennedysandking.com/john-f-kennedy-articles/jack-ruby-a-review-and-reassessment-part-1

    https://www.kennedysandking.com/john-f-kennedy-articles/jack-ruby-a-review-and-reassessment-part-2

    https://www.kennedysandking.com/john-f-kennedy-articles/jack-ruby-a-review-and-reassessment-part-3

  3. t

    where appropriate and consistent with applicable law

    When I see this in one of the EOs, even though I know better, in my head it says “we will get all the cash we can from the corner gas station using a shotgun, to the extent possible under local law.”

    Don’t these agencies answer departments (mostly) have charters and directives that cannot, consistent with applicable laws, be nullified?

    Semi-fired. Really struggling with some of my relatives pretending this is an intelligent and serious person.

  4. Wukchumni

    So have we come full circle in President Reagan firing the air traffic controllers, and President Musk begging them to come back to work?

      1. Glen

        It’s funny, having been thru the Clinton RIFs (which were double what Trump is trying to do) plus numerous BRACs, and after leaving government service, going through mega corporate downsizing numerous times, this reminds me much more of mega corporate downsizing. The chaotic random nature of it; the emails from on high to justify your “existence”. The sheer understanding that the people at the very top had no clue what was going on in the engineering offices or on the factory floor. (I think the lying up and down the management chain was just an embedded part of corporate culture by then – managers would only hear what they wanted to hear no matter how large and blatant the lying. It’s what managers had to do to get ahead.)

        We even had people that had left (retired via corporate offer or laid off) which we desperately had to get back once the managers realized that they really keep the factory running. We had one guy come back that we were overjoyed to have back, but he had retired almost in disgust at what was happening. We were having a chat at one point and I told him how grateful we all were that he was back, and ask him what it took. He said when he got offered $1000/day he decided he would come back as long as he did not have to deal with the idiotic emails from above or be put in meetings where he had to put up with upper management BS.

        So good luck, retired air traffic controllers!

        1. JMH

          The US government is not a startup. Walking in the door and flailing about, sending the young as Lambert named them, Dogebags careering through one department after another does not seem to have done much beyond create confusion, issue threats to employees. I have been hearing the cry of “waste and fraud” since Truman was president. It never seems to amount to much and of course it never extends to Defense, which in my view has long needed to be picked up by its scruff and shaken like an old rug.

          Social Security is the income for a great many people. It is the difference between a modest degree of security and penury. Medicare for me has literally been the difference between life and death. My experience is no different from millions of others. Taking as axe to medicaid means no medical care for those who depend upon it. Handle with care.

          I cannot to see the logic of firing IRS employees who job is enforcement unless the purpose is to impede enforcement. Then it is a splendid idea. I cannot see the logic of cutting taxes to benefit those well able to pay taxes while adding $4 trillion to the deficit during the next four years.

          This kind of ad hoc swing from the heels grab the news cycle approach is certain to throw out more than one baby with the bath water. If the president needs or want and eminence grise let him find one. A swashbuckling “tech bro” is not the answer.

    2. steppenwolf fetchit

      This offers a pain-point opportunity, almost an attackable “schwerpunkt” in Global Guerillas terms. If only there were a movement of $27/month small donors all set and ready to give, and a Class Blitzkrieg organization willing and able to accept the money and give it to the all the fired air traffic controllers for as long as they will stay off the job and refuse to be rehired. If only such a setup could raise enough money every month for years to come to be able to subsidize every air traffic controller who wanted to resign.

      If it were big enough and thorough enough, it could bring air travel to a complete stop and keep it stopped for months or years to come. “Welcome to the silent skies of No More United” to paraphrase a once-famous airline slogan.

      Once it was demonstrated to everyone’s satisfaction and true belief that such a group, working to subsidize all off-the-job air traffic controllers to stay off the job, could keep air travel stopped and keep the skies silent for years to come, the air traffic controllers could name their price for returning to work or getting rehired or de-resigning or however one wants to put that. They could make their price as small and humble or as big and grand as they wanted to.

      What if their price for returning to work was this: Every resigned or fired or layoffed worker in every Federal Department were brought back to work AND ALSO the DOGE were abolished AND ALSO that Voight person were removed from OPM AND ALSO every single Trump Appointee resigned from every single department it was currently infesting, AND ALSO every person removed from the DOD were re-instated right back into their former position? And until that price was met, the Silent Skies would stay silent? No more commercial air travel, no more private jet travel, no more Air Freight of any kind?

      It sounds like the stuff of Political Science Fiction, but if enough people organized effectively enough and money-raisingly enough and subsidizing all the off-the-job air traffic controllers enough, it could become a reality, forcibly crammed down the throat of the Musk ( trump-vance) Administration.

      And notice that my little scenario envisions precisely zero appeals to any Democratic officeholder of any kind. Not a single phone call, not a single letter, email, or anything. My little scenario is a pure Global Guerillas type of do-it-yourself Citizen Blitzkrieg.

      What if the people who had the power to “make it so” were inspired to go forth and Make It So?

      1. Lambert Strether Post author

        > Class Blitzkrieg

        I always felt Sanders should have pivoted away from the Democrats after the Night of the Long Knives in 2020, because his base of $27 dollar donors would have followed him when he did; my thought was to the union movement because there was an organzing surge as the pandemic took hold, but this is an actually thought out alternative. Hopefully Sanders didn’t poison the well for all small-dollar movements going forward.

            1. Martin Oline

              Sometimes it really goes wrong: Gone Dead Train written by Russ Thelman and Jack Nitzsche.
              Performed by Randy Newman and Ry Cooder.

              My engine pumpin’ steam
              And I was grindin’ at you hard and fast
              I was burnin’ down the rails to heat the way
              Haulin’ ass and ridin’ up the track

              Once was at a time when I could mama shave ’em dry
              And raise a fever ice-down chill
              Waitin’ at the station with a heavy loaded sack
              Savin’ up and holdin’ just to spill

              Shootin’ my supply through my demon’s eye
              Instead of holdin’ my time, I hope I will

              When the fire in my boiler
              Up and quit before I came
              There ain’t no empty cellar
              Need a gone dead train

              1. mrsyk

                Lol,
                Well you know
                That you’re over the hill
                When your mind makes a promise that your body can’t fill…

                Little Feat, Old Folks Boogie

      3. ambrit

        Dave Stewart’s “Time Passages” has a train reference. Sort of meta appropriate.
        “Buy me a ticket on the last train home tonight.”

    3. judy2shoes

      Wow! Thanks for this link, mrsyk.

      Adding, I’d forgotten all about Kathy Mattea. Thanks for reminding me.

      1. mrsyk

        You’re most welcome. I love train songs, a variation on the theme of searching for the American dream.

    6. CanCyn

      Here are some favs of mine:

      Pat Metheny Last Train Home: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZaYGoN24YOc

      Duke Ellington, Take the ATrain: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cb2w2m1JmCY

      Cassandra Wilson’s cover of Last Train to Clarksville: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f7mflO9osdk

    9. mrsyk

      The people that haunt this place are wonderful.
      I just threw some jukebox money at our barkeeper. Keep em coming.

      2. judy2shoes

        Great song! myrsyk below is right – it shakes! (course I had to get up and shake right along with it)

    13. Buzz Meeks

      Tom Rush. The Panama Limited

      Lambert, thanks for everything you have done here. I will miss your work with the Water Cooler

      1. judy2shoes

        Doobies!!! I saw them in the mid-70s in Jeppesen stadium in Houston. Won tickets from a local radio station. The lineup was the Doobie Brothers, Pablo Cruz, Santana, and the Marshall Tucker Band. There was a fellow sitting behind us rolling the biggest joints I’d ever seen. When we asked what he was rolling them for, he said, “When the Doobies come on, I’m gonna light ’em up.” I was in the right spot..

        2. Henry Moon Pie

          I had a similar experience at a Yes concert about 1973 in Boston. We brought an ounce and the people in front ofus did the same, and we shared with each other.

          That’s about all that I remember of that concert though.

    15. curlydan

      My 3 favorite train songs…

      It Takes a Lot to Laugh, It Takes a Train to Cry, Bob Dylan
      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SN1ACh8lzHg

      Rock Island Line, Johnny Cash
      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FX1BPItDcDo

      Night Train, Philip Glass
      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q0SkpR-1StE

    24. communistmole

      Arthur Honegger, Pacific 231

      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1xSAPzD79_I

      Alice, Franco Battiato, I treni di Tozeur

      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yVtkvuKpKf8

      A-ha, Train Of Thought

      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7vdOgObQvz8

      with an appearance of Trotzky in the Video

  6. Carolinian

    Re Musk–now that his shock and awe purpose has been served it may be time to start a countdown watch on how long before he retires to spend more time with his rockets. You can see that the RIF is already being moved to the department heads.

    However I mentioned elsewhere Charlie Peters’ rules for Bureaucrats and another one of those was to protect the department budget at all costs (think Army vs Navy). Then there’s Congress to block cuts to their pet projects.

    Still the threat of it all may be enough to keep the deep state more loyal to Trump than the last time. We the public meanwhile are only a side issue–on the outside looking in.

  7. djrichard

    Hey Lambert, figure I better post my best wishes before I miss my window of opportunity.

    You and a few others have been my north star in fighting the good fight. It will be an end of an era with you hanging up your spurs, at least regarding your tenure here at NC. Coincidentally with you moving on I think I’ll be trying to hang up my spurs to some degree as well. At the end of the day, a lot of what I’m doing is reflecting pain and I need to break out of that loop. And something (God?) tells me I need to let go, let go of trying to defeat the fascists for example and come at life from a different angle.

    Anyways fare thee well. Hope that which is good smiles upon thee.

    1. Lambert Strether Post author

      > At the end of the day, a lot of what I’m doing is reflecting pain and I need to break out of that loop.

      I feel something similar. I experience this as not having time to think. I feel my reactions are pretty analytical, but I would prefer to be able to rise about the problem. If the 100,000-foot level, so be it.

      1. Avalon Sparks

        Thank you for all these years, I don’t know you personally, but you are definitely one of my favorite people. The covid information reporting was the best ANYWHERE.

        Thank you!
        Thank you!
        Thank you!

        Hope you come back to post here in comments or special guest posts. Wishing you the best life has to offer!

      2. GramSci

        Go for it, Lambert! IMHO, you’ve always been at your best when you managed to take a long view. I cannot fathom how you managed this under the crush of deadlines and incessant non-avian tweets.

        Ride your golden watch into the sunset, Lambert! If, when, and as the dust settles, please share what you see.

      3. Henry Moon Pie

        39,000 feet might be sufficient, at least if Captain High is at the helm. Not a train song, but a plane song (not plainsong). The Jefferson Airplane live cover of the song Donovan wrote referencing them:

        “Fat Angel”

        We’ll miss you.

      4. Randall Flagg

        >I feel my reactions are pretty analytical, but I would prefer to be able to rise about the problem. If the 100,000-foot level, so be it.

        That’s the thing I appreciate so much.
        With your Covid coverage ( and the rest of NC posts on the subject ), it helped to avoid getting sucked into a panic. To stop, think, and keep a calm attitude towards it all. Especially as it is a danger that you can’t just see but is just floating around you, except when in public you can see someone clearly sick, or in the media someone spouting this or that which is just agenda humping BS. To see right through all that and take at least an informed action.
        BTW that also includes so many other subjects in this media world that seeks to distract and divide us all.
        If any of that makes any sense. But all in all, THANK YOU!

  9. ChrisFromGA

    Lambert, I know a lot of others have sent their farewells … I’m not sure if today is the last WC, but just in case.

    Great work, thanks in particular for the COVID charts and coverage well after the rest of the country wanted to bury it in a shallow unmarked grave.

    You’ll be missed!

    Happy Trails

      1. mrsyk

        I like “avalanche”, I am a northern lad after all.
        The above memorandum is the one that contains the language “Marxist social justice”, imo a very broad brush.

  12. PA

    Executive Order
    Commencing the Reduction of the Federal Bureo
    2/19/2025
    (iv) the Secretary of Health and Human Services shall terminate the Secretary’s Advisory Committee on Long COVID; and

  13. debug

    Thanks, Lambert, for the bird songs.

    I thought I’d share my tale of an unusual Robin…

    One Spring several years ago I was in my back yard raking up leaves from the final winter leafdrop of our oak trees. The raking was overdue, as the leaves had accumulated to a depth of a few inches along the fenceline and into the yard. As I began raking, a Robin landed on the fence about ten feet away, looked right at me, and started singing. Its song was continuous and unusually varied. I stopped raking and just listened and watched for a full minute or so. I slowly put the rake down and walked away quite a few feet so as not to disturb the singing. I figured I’d listen a while longer and finish the raking later. But the Robin stopped singing, jumped down from the fence, and picked and ate a worm from the newly uncovered ground.

    It flew back up onto the fence and started singing again while carefully looking at me. I walked slowly back toward the unraked ground near the fence, picked up the rake, and raked more leaves, and walked away again. My new friend stopped singing, jumped down, found another worm on the newly cleared ground, and had its meal. Then it flew back onto the fence and sang for me again.

    Songs for worms, apparently. I kept at it, clearing a few square feet of ground then backing away. This exchange went on for several more rounds of the Robin on the fence singing continuously with varying songs while I raked. Whenever I stopped raking and backed away, the Robin descended from its perch to find and eat a fresh worm, then flew back up to sit on the fence to sing for more. The bird had tamed me…

    After a while, I had to go back into the house to tend to other matters. As I left, the Robin went to work on the piece of ground I had just uncovered for it.

    I’ve never heard a Robin sing so beautifully as that one. It seemed to me as though it was a mimicking or improvising Robin. I was so close that there was no mistaking it for any other bird (it was a T.m. subspecies achrusterus.) I didn’t get as much of the back yard raked as I had hoped, but it was a fair trade, I suppose – a worm for a song…

    But I think I got the better deal.

    “…
    Teach me half the gladness
    That thy brain must know,
    Such harmonious madness
    From my lips would flow,
    The world should listen then—as I am listening now.”

    — P. B. Shelley “Ode to a Sky-Lark”

    While this was occurring, I thought briefly that I should capture this on video with my camera or phone, but my devices were in the house, and the experience was too precious to risk interrupting. I remembered the lesson I learned when I made peace with the absence of my camera during a beautiful foggy sunrise once long ago… Some things in this world just aren’t meant to be ensnared and scrutinized dispassionately, they are for my eyes and mind to wonder about in awe all by my self. The world, even in the shape it’s in, is still full of awesome moments.

    Lambert, I wish you many awesome moments. Thanks again for the bird songs, and for the health coverage, the yellow waders, and your wit and humanity.

      1. debug

        Smart, indeed. I think it was a “genius” among Robins. I am about half way through “The Genius of Birds” by Jennifer Ackerman and I am convinced that consciousness is a continuum and that many birds and animals of all types have varying levels of consciousness, up to and including at least an elementary “theory of mind.” Ackerman suggests that birds have individual characteristics of intelligence, even among a given species. I do not think that my exchange with the Robin was mechanistic. It seemed to discern that it had my attention and then quickly learned that I wanted songs for my raking, and that I would make the exchange repeatedly. It was singing for its supper, consciously.

        Glad you enjoyed the story.

    2. The Rev Kev

      Great story that. And you were right to forget the camera or phone. The results never capture what you want.

      1. debug

        Thanks Rev. Glad you enjoyed it.

        No video could ever have told this story. It was a holistic experience. It would have been like trying to capture with a telescope the awesomeness of lying on the ground on a dark clear cool night in the desert and looking up at the stars.

        …
        The flavor of the night lies on my tongue. I speak it so
        That others, uninviting of themselves, abed, not brave, may know
        What this boy knows and will forever know:
        The Universe is thronged with fire and light,
        And we but smaller suns which, skinned, trapped and kept
        Enshrined in blood and precious bones,
        Hold back the night.

        — Ray Bradbury “The Young Galileo Speaks”

  14. Lunker Walleye

    Turner
    This must be a cropped version of the original. I believe the original is about 46”x37” and here we see a more vertical format (if you click through to twitter pic). And if you go to another source you see what the entire work looks like. It’s almost like a seascape and it predates impressionism by decades. It’s a mad rush of earthly elements and the paint appears to have been brushed on furiously.

    https://theidealmuseum.substack.com/p/rain-steam-and-speed-the-great-western

    1. Lambert Strether Post author

      It is cropped (“detail”); I thought the brushwork was really interesting. (Also, most of the digital reproductions are very yellowy, but some are more blue and green. Have any readers seen the original? Which is it?)

      And quite right about “predates impressionism by decades.” Extraordinary!

      1. Alex Cox

        The cropped version makes it resemble one of the travelling hell-ovens in Bruegel’s Triumph of Death. Coincidence no doubt!

      2. jonboinAR

        In a bio-pic of Turner a few years back, they had him hawking loogies on the canvas as he painted clouds. Hey, it worked!

      3. DrSpec

        My memory is mainly yellow in the top right and red in the bottom left and black or dark brown in the middle. The image looks correct although cropped.
        I had been doing a lot of photography around the time I attended the exhibition and was astonished how much the paintings showed what the camera captured with haze and mist and darkly obscured areas compared which how the eyes and brain interpreted the scene with clarity. Especially landscapes in less than ideal visibility.

  15. Wukchumni

    Must admit to being grandfathered in on Social Security by getting at my forced annuity ASAP, seems to be a provident move.

    The bastards are gonna (family-blog) with it~

        1. ambrit

          I see a sharp “revival” of the “Olde Tyme Religion” prominently featuring Saint Luigi.
          “Fancy Communion Feast” anyone?

  17. Felix

    “Not sure why the dude was even in Georgetown”
    Lambert, appreciate your reaction, I read the tweet and recalled walking with my granddaughter thru an upscale shopping area in Larkspur, Ca (Marin county where vote was 80% harris 16% trump) and thinking how idyllic their existence must be. Then I saw your comment and chuckled inwardly, had to think for a moment what the hell were we doing there (picking up coat donations).
    Thank you for all your hard work, Water Cooler is an absolute gem. Good luck with your future endeavors, compa.

    1. JBird4049

      Idyllic, yes, but also more gentrified in the past fifty years like the rest of the Bay Area as was once working and middle class neighborhoods are now upper, upper middle, investor and PMC, class neighborhoods. It’s rather depressing to see the entire Bay Area embalmed into a soulless paradise for the wealthy and the tourists with a growing detritus of the homeless stashed into no-go zones.

      1. Felix

        JBird4049 well said. the tail end of your comment brought to mind a tragedy which was reported last week in Vallejo. A homeless man was crushed by city workers clearing a homeless encampment with hydraulic loaders.

  18. Jason Boxman

    So I think Musk fits in Eisenhower’s “enterprising and stupid” category. To be kept away from any and all valuable public goods.

    1. ceco

      I associate a different matrix with Eisenhower – do you mean Kurt von Hammerstein-Equord? Or did Eisenhower also espouse a similar sentiment?

      As Chief of the Army High Command, Hammerstein-Equord oversaw the composition of the German manual on military unit command (Truppenführung), dated 17 October 1933.

      He conceived of a classification scheme for officers:

      I distinguish four types. There are clever, hardworking, stupid, and lazy officers. Usually two characteristics are combined. Some are clever and hardworking; their place is the General Staff. The next ones are stupid and lazy; they make up 90 percent of every army and are suited to routine duties. Anyone who is both clever and lazy is qualified for the highest leadership duties, because he possesses the mental clarity and strength of nerve necessary for difficult decisions. One must beware of anyone who is both stupid and hardworking; he must not be entrusted with any responsibility because he will always only cause damage.[32]

    2. steppenwolf fetchit

      Unless your agenda is to make all public goods into private goods. And destroy utterly any public goods which you can’t privatise. If that is your agenda, then Musk is your man.

      And that is clearly someone’s agenda. And Musk’s agenda too. Which means that Musk is not stupid.
      Musk is a very smart saboteur. The mission is sabotage. Inside-job sabotage.

  19. CloverBee

    Regarding Egg prices … My livestock vet advised that that Bird Flu is being spread by migratory water fowl, and the best prevention was to keep things that attract water fowl covered and unappealing. I haven’t seen that discussed here, but I think it is worth sharing, and I may be wrong about it not being shared here.

    Lambert’s informative and funny takes on things will be so missed. It has kept me sane, and helped guide decisions. Thank you for I don’t know how many years.

    1. Late Introvert

      That’s good info, thanks. Our yard doesn’t have anything attractive, but dang it, there’s a creek 3 houses away and we act as a duck throughway twice a year. They will lay eggs in the yards too.

    1. mrsyk

      A trip down memory lane. This sentence caught my eye.
      This week has been marked by small acts of kindness like this; being a good Mainer, I wonder how this temporary imbalance in the karmic scales will be rectified, but it’s certainly nice while it lasts.

      Hard not to believe in karma. Life as a zero sum experience makes sense somehow.

  22. Bill B

    “DOGE is waging a class war on America’s new clerisy” “On one side are public workers whose pay, and pensions, well exceed those in the private sector.” That’s too general:

    https://www.cbo.gov/publication/60235#_idTextAnchor024

    “Comparison of Total Compensation
    CBO combined its analyses of wages and benefits to assess differences in total compensation between the federal government and the private sector for workers with certain similar observable characteristics.

    -Among workers with a high school diploma or less education, total compensation costs were 40 percent higher, on average, for federal employees than for similar private-sector employees.
    -Among workers whose education ended in a bachelor’s degree, the cost of total compensation averaged 5 percent more for federal workers than for similar workers in the private sector.
    -Among workers with a professional degree or doctorate, by contrast, total compensation costs were 22 percent lower, on average, for federal employees than for private-sector employees with similar attributes (see Table 2-3).”

    That less-educated workers have lower compensation probably just means that their employers are able to easily screw them over.

    1. Bill B

      Furthermore from the Spiked article:

      “Between 1997 and 2019, the percentage of federal workers who identified with the GOP, according to a recent UC Berkeley study, dropped from one-third to a quarter. Twice as many identify as Democrats.” Can they be blamed, given the Republicans’ antipathy towards them, increasing over time, especially starting with Reagan? It could be argued that this is driven by anti-goverment ideology, and isn’t about class at all. The author seems to share that attitude.

  23. Antagonist

    50% Cuts at Social Security Administration

    This would explain why my disability case with the Social Security Administration (SSA) has been ongoing for six years now. Early on during my case, the SSA bureaucrats would scrutinize every detail of my life to find any sort of inconsistency in my claim. In the written decision from the last hearing, the judge simply fabricated lies and deliberately misrepresented my testimony.

    Cutting funds to the SSA would have this sort of effect. Instead of paying administrators well to do a good job of deducing whether or not my claims are backed up by evidence from my medical records (they certainly are), the administrators would rather just lie about my disability because a perfunctory denial of disability benefits is sufficient to ensure that I don’t have the means to appeal.

    I sure wish I had some wealthy benefactors I could ask for help.

  24. The Rev Kev

    “Andrew Cuomo seen as possible White House candidate by some Democrats ”

    The return of “rat-faced” Andy. Because the Democrat bench is so thin and they cant be bothered looking for somebody new.

  25. Ben Panga

    Re: “IMPLEMENTING THE PRESIDENT’S “DEPARTMENT OF GOVERNMENT EFFICIENCY” COST EFFICIENCY INITIATIVE

    Lambert highlighted “grants and disbursements to educational institutions” with a red “PMC”

    I’ll expand on this to say that one of Thiel’s (and his cult’s) biggest goals has long been the dismantlement of the Academic-Credentialism industrial complex (part /sarc).

    To the Neo-Reactionary eye this is “The Cathedral”

    “Central to NRx thought is Yarvin’s concept of ‘The Cathedral,’ a term he uses to describe what he perceives as an informal alliance between academia, the media and government. According to Yarvin, these institutions work together to advance progressive ideologies while suppressing dissenting views. Yarvin’s critique extends beyond accusations of institutional bias, positioning The Cathedral as a powerful ideological machine that maintains its influence by perpetuating a self-reinforcing ‘progressive orthodoxy.’ By framing democracy as an inherently coercive force that stifles intellectual and social freedom, Yarvin challenges the legitimacy of democratic institutions altogether. He posits that these institutions exist not to serve the public good, as they claim, but to indoctrinate and control, perpetuating what he views as a hypocritical adherence to principles of equality and representation that ultimately undermine genuine freedom.”

    Thiel’s history goes back further though. As a student in Stanford in the 90s he was dismayed by the liberal atmosphere and seemingly felt oppressed enough to start the trollish Stanford Review and later co-author “The Diversity Myth : Multiculturalism and Political Intolerance on Campus” (1996) with David Sacks.

    Here’s Thiel in an interview at a university (video and transcript) expanding on his ideas a bit.

    In the early 2010s he started the Thiel Fellowship (“The Thiel Fellowship gives $100,000 to young people who want to build new things instead of sitting in a classroom”). which rewards students who drop out to “build things”.

    Finally (although many more examples exist) Palantir co-founder Joe Lonsdale started an alternative, expressly libertarian, university in Austin

    1. Ben Panga

      As with much of Thiel’s thought, there are elements of truth in his critique, although as always the insights emerge after going through the filter of his (and Yarvin’s) emotionally-damaged psyche.

      Wearing my pop-psychologist hat, I wonder how much of this is driven by the social rejection he experienced when first attending Stanford?

      It’s sad to me that in a desperate attempt to be free of his childhood and adolescent pain, he will try to own and control the world rather than deal with his own trauma. Too many people, especially men, like this in power these days

  26. johnnyme

    Unions are now in the DOGE crosshairs. Posted today:

    Agency Reporting to OPM for Fiscal Year 2024 Taxpayer-Funded Union Time Use

    Request #1: By March 14, 2025, Agencies are required to submit the below taxpayer-funded union time information for Fiscal Year 2024 (i.e., October 1, 2023, through September 30, 2024). In large part, these are the same data elements that Agencies were required to submit for the Fiscal Year 2019 report.

    1. The purposes for which the agency has authorized the use of taxpayer-funded union time (i.e., Term Negotiations, Mid-Term Negotiations, Dispute Resolution, General Labor-Management Relations)

    2. The amounts of time used for each purpose of taxpayer-funded union time;

    3. The total number of bargaining unit employees as of September 30, 2024;

    4. The total value of the free or discounted use of government property for labor organizations or individuals on taxpayer-funded union time;

    5. Any expenses the agency paid for activities conducted on taxpayer-funded union time; and

    6. The amount of any reimbursement paid by the labor organizations for the use of government property

    Request #2 (see Tab C in attached template): By April 1, 2025, Agencies are required to submit the below taxpayer-funded union time (TFUT) information for Fiscal Year 2024 (October 1, 2023, through September 30, 2024).

    1. For each employee listed in Tab B who has used taxpayer-funded union time in the fiscal year, please provide a copy of their position descriptions;

    2. For each employee listed in Tab B who has used taxpayer-funded union time in the fiscal year, please note whether they were eligible to telework or work remotely prior to President Trump’s January 20, 2025, Presidential Memorandum, “Return to In-Person Work”; and if so, how many days per pay period were they required to go to the office? (please update in columns J and K in Tab B)

    3. How many hours did each agency permit labor organizations, or employees of the agency for whom TFUT was authorized, to use that agency real property (e.g., offices, cubicles, or other space within an agency facility) at no cost or at a discounted rate? How much was each agency reimbursed with respect to the use of agency real property provided at no cost or at a discounted rate?

    4. How much did each agency permit and reimburse labor organizations or employees authorized for TFUT for expenses related to purchasing new office supplies, upgrading equipment, or covering construction and renovation costs for office space designated for collective bargaining unit use?

    5. As it relates to each agency’s TFUT use, if there was an increase in the total cost, hours claimed, or eligible employees between FY23 and FY24, please provide a detailed explanation of the circumstances giving rise to any increase.

  27. IM Doc

    Lambert, I do not know if I am going to be able to be around tomorrow – I am on call – and we are really getting slammed with the flu. So I am going to put this on here today.

    I wanted you to know how much I appreciate all you have done. More importantly, a warm thank you for all the belly laughs over the years. I find that is something we are sorely missing in our world today – the ability to laugh and make awesome jokes out of all the mire instead of name-calling and malign insults. It is truly scary how ominous and odious our political discourse has become. We should all focus our attention on the bright lights and those who make us put a smile on the face. This is truly a mental health issue for me and so many others.

    In that way, you are a good guy – in the same vein as Molly Ivins. I miss her so much and often wonder what she would be writing about Trump, DOGE, Elon etc.

    I want to let you know what she said about political reporters like yourself – from the Preface of her 1993 book “Nothin’ But Good Times Ahead” – I thought about you when I was reading this the other day – and I thought about the sentiments of that title as you pursue your next phase in life –

    Ms Ivins, the daughter of Texas, wrote:

    “The best description I ever found of what it is like to be a political reporter was printed, curiously enough, in NATURAL HISTORY magazine, deftly sandwiched into an article by a woman biologist who studies the diet of the muriqui monkey. Anyone who has ever chased a politician around trying to get a usable quote will be stunned by the extraordinary accuracy of this scientific account of the procedure:

    ‘While simple in theory, my role in these investigations has not been easy. The biochemical analyses of the plant foods require gathering a grocery bag full of leaves or fruit from each plant species, and doing this after the muirquis have swarmed through one of their feeding trees is not as simple as it sounds. Collecting fresh fecal samples from identified individuals is equally laborious. The feces themselves are not so unpleasant to collect as one might suppose because they carry an aromatic scent from the cinnamon leaves that muriquis consume. The challenge, rather, is to get almost directly underneath the targeted individual at the moment of defecation so that the greenish brown dung can be spotted before it is camoflauged hitting the ground.

    Occasionally the feces land neatly in my glove, but more often they splatter uselessly in the tangled vegetation—-or else fall alongside another muriqui’s feces so that I cannot tell whose is whose. So even though the muriquis defecate often, and in the case of adults, abundantly each time, getting a clean sample sometimes means tailing one muriqui for up to six hours without pause.’

    That was Molly Ivins. How many times have I seen you don the yellow waders? And then bring back to everyone on here a nice big bag full of feces. And not only that, but often enough to make your report hysterically funny. That is a talent. And we are all going to miss it.

    Godspeed.

    1. CathyT

      OMG Doc, thanks so much for this! (I too miss the late, great Molly Ivins.) Laughter IS the best medicine, even when the affliction is melancholy over the loss of our Lambert. YOU are a good doctor.

      Lambert, I saw IMDoc’s comment on my way back from the Tip Jar. I’m old enough to remember when tips were for tokens of appreciation for services rendered. As such, my small offering is not sufficient for Lambert’s services for all these years. Among many other things, I will miss his fabulously organized writing style, humor and his dogged devotion to the Covid stats and transmission (aerosols!) beats. And as I read truly informative posts on DOGE from a historical perspective, I mourn the posts on the DOGE beat that will forever be unwritten.

      Thus, really, I use this opportunity pay tribute to Lambert for his adding the term “DOGEbag” to my vocabulary .

      I look forward to the day when the Oxford University Press recognizes “DOGEbag” as word of the year. I have bookmarked and PDFed the post to commemorate the day of the first publication of “DOGEbag”–complete with acceptable pronunciations and definitions! (And I was witness, one among many.) “DOGEbag” works as both a verb and a noun as well as the base of the word that identifies the practice of “DOGEbaggery.” (Please forgive my presumption here.)

      Now, it’s time to present the lei, a hug and a smack on the cheek. I will miss you, Lambert, and your writing. May you have a long, healthy, happy and fun(!) retirement. May your move be relatively free of aggravation. A hui hou (until we meet again).

      And welcome, KLG’s Coffee Break! Here is a well-deserved lei for KLG, too.

    1. Martin Oline

      Apparently these documents are heavily redacted and have previously reported information. Still, I was surprised to find Lambert on the same contact page as Dr. Henry Kissinger. . .

      1. The Rev Kev

        The coverup continues. Too many important names on that list so the FBI will continue sitting on it. JFK got shot over 60 years ago and the files still have not been released. It will be the same for the Epstein list.

        1. Alice X

          Yeah, they give a long, salacious intro showing the metadata tracking, only to meekly proclaim concern for such tracking. Or is it known of even more specific tracking, such as may be normalized. Oh well. Greater truths must be available further on, or below the redactions, as likely the case will be.

          1. Alice X

            There are pedophiles and their are corporate crooks. That they may intertwine is not zero sum. Great crimes abound.

      3. aleph_0

        It looks like it was a much more redacted version of Epstein’s little black book, which Gawker published years ago. It’s still out there on the web if you’re interested.

  30. steppenwolf fetchit

    Since the bird song of the day is an American robin, I am thinking of a recent immigrant from Britain who recently commented about seeing his first American robin and how different it is from the robin of Britain. (its easier for me to just call our robin “robin” and so that’s what I will call it).

    Interestingly enough, the Eurasian blackbird is in the same thrush genus as the American robin is, and is closely related to it. I was once on a trip in Czech Republic and saw blackbirds flocking loosely the same as robins in the fall, and some of their call notes sounded exactly the same.

    Interestingly enough, the word “blackbird” here has been technically attached to the Western Hemisphere bird family called Icteridae ( ” New World Blackbirds”). https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Icterid
    And popularly attached to a smaller group of related species in that family with “blackbird” as part of their name. Red-winged blackbird, yellow headed blackbird, rusty blackbird, Brewer’s blackbird, tricolor blackbird and maybe some others with the word “blackbird” in the name.

  31. General Jinjur

    A gold watch? Check your belongings for a pocket timepiece you may have overlooked, Lambert. We could use a Time Lord..

  33. ambrit

    Just a throw over the transom item. Observed on a Prepper Adjacent site, one of a series of articles: “How to survive Jackpot.”
    Man in suit wearing sunglasses indoors: “Hello. I’m from the Department of Jackpot Compliance.”
    NC reader: “How can I assist you?”
    Man: “Get out of our way.”
    NC reader: “Isn’t that a Catch 22 item?”
    Man: “Not if we say it is not.”
    NC reader: “But, if I comply, I die. If I do not, you try to kill me. Right.”
    Man: “Logically correct. However, when saving Humanity from itself, logic is counter-productive.”
    NC reader: “I have been educated in thinking clearly and logically.”
    Man: “Experts at the closest FEMA Re-education Centre can help you with that problem.”
    NC reader: “I’m afraid that I cannot comply with your implied demand.”
    Man: “Not to worry. A Non Compliant (NC) Retrieval Team has already been alerted. Have a nice day.”
    NC reader (muttering to self): “Where is that burner phone! Ditch the iPhone, now! Change the jacket…”

  34. Big River Bandido

    Let no one else’s work evade your eyes

    remember why the good lord made your eyes,
    so don’t shade your eyes,
    but plagiarize, plagiarize, plagiarize…
    (only be sure always to call it, please, “research”).

    Dear Lambert, hard to believe that no one in the commentariat has yet picked up on your Tom Lehrer quote, but I wanted you to know that yes, someone in the readership caught it. :)

    How I will miss you and that razor sharp sense of humor. Thank you for all these years.

  35. The Rev Kev

    Just now kicked in some cash to Lambert’s gold watch. As Geoffrey Chaucer once said ‘All good things must come to an end’ and that’s OK. It makes room for the next good things. Hope you keep in touch with everybody at NC to let us know how you are traveling. Tschüss.

  39. Henry Moon Pie

    I note that the ILA did NOT sync their contract expiration with the UAW and Fain’s idea of a “general strike” in 2028. That is a setback, it seems to me. Dockworkers are perhaps the most important bottleneck there is.

    1. steppenwolf fetchit

      There won’t be anything left to save by 2028. The Musk Administration will probably succeed in engineering a Greatest Ever Depression so deep and total that there probably won’t be any dockwork for dockworkers to do by then.

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