‘Russia Cannot Win This War’: UK Tells OSCE Kremlin Victory in Ukraine Is ‘Increasingly Implausible’

Britain told the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) that Russia’s victory in Ukraine is “increasingly implausible,” arguing the Kremlin is suffering unsustainable battlefield losses, mounting economic pressure, and growing strategic failure more than four years into its full-scale invasion.

Speaking in Vienna on Thursday, UK Ambassador Neil Holland said Moscow must abandon hopes of military victory and engage seriously in negotiations on a “just and lasting peace.”

“Russia cannot win this war and it is time to stop,” Holland said in an address to the OSCE.

The British diplomat argued Russia is exhausting its manpower at a pace it cannot sustain, while achieving only limited territorial gains despite heavy casualties.

“Its rate of advance has slowed markedly in 2026, despite casualties remaining high. This is not the trajectory of a state on the path to victory,” he said.

Holland also accused the Kremlin of escalating attacks on civilians as battlefield progress stalls.

“When Russia cannot achieve decisive results on the battlefield, it intensifies attacks on civilians,” he said, pointing to one of the largest aerial assaults on Kyiv since the start of the full-scale invasion.

According to the UK statement, Russia launched around 600 drones and 90 missiles against Ukraine during last weekend’s attacks, primarily targeting Kyiv.

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Britain said nearly 200 civilians have been killed and more than 1,500 injured in May alone, potentially making it the deadliest month for civilians since April 2022.

“A state confident of victory does not need to terrorise civilians,” Holland said. “This behaviour betrays weakness, not strength.”

The UK also mentioned signs of strain inside Russia’s economy, citing slowing growth, declining oil and gas revenues, and the impact of Ukrainian strikes on Russian refining infrastructure.

“Russia cannot outlast Ukraine’s partners,” Holland said. “Our combined economic strength and defense capacity far exceeds Russia’s.”

Following this, President Volodymyr Zelensky on Monday said Ukraine’s long-range strikes have cut Russian oil refining by 10% in recent months and forced energy companies to shut down wells. He said Russia’s deficit has already exceeded full-year projections and that “Putin is leading Russia toward bankruptcy.”

While recent US sanctions waivers under Trump have allowed Russia to monetize oil assets, Ukraine’s domestic “long-range sanctions” appear to be having a more direct impact. 

Holland added that Ukraine continues to adapt militarily while Western allies remain united in support for Kyiv.

“Russia’s victory is not inevitable. On current trends, it is increasingly implausible,” Holland said, urging Moscow to agree to a full and unconditional ceasefire.