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Table 10

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In parallel to demographic growth other factors can sensibly modify the structure of the food demand. The rapid urbanization that took place in Algeria has also an influence on well the evolution of the food consumption, "the rural exodus is very often at the origin of the breaking with the traditional food habits" (Charvet P., 1993, p. 5). It is knowa that urbanization leads to the evolution of farming products which will consequently produce an

Min: Minimum; Max: Maximum * Potatoes included. Table 2: The food needs for human consumption in million of quintal (2003-2038). Sa ee a ee ee a a Is it possible that one day the rhythm of the growth of the food production exceeds that of the population and will consequently lead to the insurance of the needs without having recourse to massive importations? In other to answer this question, we tried to evaluate the food shortage up to 2038 taking into account two essential factors: demographic growth and the food production.

Figure 1: Projection of the variables points on the 1°‘ and the 2" factorial plan. 2.2. The perspectives of the food production maier’ 7 ition ‘ii nS ie The principal component analysis that we have applied to data of table A3 has permitted to situate the principals associations between variables. Expeeting that the variables which up to now played a determining role in the food production by inhabitant will continue their corresponding impacts in the coming years we have estimated a multiple linear regression models considering the food production by habitant of each product as a dependent variables and the following independent variables: the output by hectare, the size of the population, the area of agriculture lands by habitant, the share of the agriculture area land

© See the list of variables in Table A6 in annex.

Table 8: Production of cereals, dried vegetables, fresh vegetables and fruits in kg bi nhabitant (2003-2038)

Figure 2: Logistic evolution of the profit of productivity

Expect a small group of products (fruits, meat, and to a lesser extend fresh vegetables) he perspectives of long term evolution of the products which up generates a heavy lependence are not at all promising. In spite of that, the hypotheses that we have advanced ‘oncerning the output are very optimistic. This concems in particular the cereals, the dried regetables for which we advanced a constant evolution of the output to reach in_ 2038, 16.21 ind 10.25 quintals by hectare respectively. This performance has never been reached before yy the algerian agriculture. Even with this hypothesis the food shortage for these two products vill be comprised between 38 % and 40 % for the cereals and 56 % to 57 % for the dried regetables. As far as the volume is concerned the shortage is equivalent to the following: [4.6 to 56.5 millions quintals for the cereals and 2.5 to 2.96 millions quintals for the dried regetables. The food shortage has been estimated in 1997 as 57.19 millions quintals for ereals and as 1.17 millions quintals for the dried vegetables. Table 10: Balance sheet 2003-2038 in kg by inhabitant.

Table A 2: Outputs and useful agricultural area by variety. Source: Statistical registers of Algeria.

Table A3: The food production by habitant (in K g/inhabitant) Source: Statistical registers of Algeria.

Source: Statistical registers of Algeria. and of the useful agricultural area (in hectare by inhabitant).

Table A6 : Corrélations between factors and variables. Table A7: Models of extrapolation of the production of milk, red meat, white meat, and fish

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