Property Market Analysis

უძრავი ქონება, როგორც ერთ-ერთი ყველაზე ღირებული და მყარი აქტივი, უმნიშვნელოვანეს რგოლს წარმოადგენს როგორც ქვეყნის ეკონომიკაში ასევე მსოფლიო აღებ-მიცემობაში. უძრავი ქონების მონაწილეობა ქვეყნის ეკონო-მიკურ პროცესებში მაღალი პროცენტული მაჩვენებლით ხასიადება და მშპ-ს მოცულობაზე დიდ გავლენას ახდენს. მაღალი მოთხოვნა უძრავ ქონებაზე განპირობებულია მოსახლეობის დემოგრაფიული ზრდის ტემპით, შემოსა-ვლებისა და მსყიდველ-უნარიანობის ზრდითა და სხვა. უძრავი ქონების მნიშვნელობა მომხმარებლისა და ეკონომიკისათვის, ასევე მისი მაღალი ღირებულება სხვა ტიპის ქონებებთან შედარებით ქმნის აუცილებლობას სწორად განვსაზღვროთ, დავაკვირდეთ და შევისწავლოთ ის პირდაპირი თუ არა პირდაპირი ფაქტორები, რომლებიც უშუალოდ მონაწილეობენ ფას-წარმოქმნაში, ან ირიბ გავლებას ახდენენ მასზე. იმისათვის რომ უძრავი ქონების ფასწარმოქმნის საფუძვლიანი და ამომწურავი შესწავლა მოვახდინოთ საჭიროა დინამიკაში დავაკვირდეთ უძრავი ქონების ბაზრის ტრანზაქციებს, სხვადასხვა პერიოდსა და ეკონომიკური პროცესების ფონზე.

24 November 2020, Real Estate in Indonesia: Macroeconomic Trends and Market Outlook, Expert Session at the REII Connect 2020 Conference organized by Real Estate Investment Indonesia (REII). The conference was held online from Jakarta, Indonesia, 24-25 November 2020.

Audio recording: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oiwUf55O7hE.

Shazana Mokhtar, National Housing Policy 2018-2025 – The Right Roadmap?, «BFM 89.9», The Property Show, 8 February 2019, https://www.bfm.my/tps-carmelo-ferlito-national-housing-policy-2018-2025-the-right-roadmap.

Last month, the government launched the National Housing Policy 2018 - 2025. The new policy focuses on resolving the supply and demand mismatch in the housing sector, as well as helping low-income earners to own a home. Dr. Carmelo Ferlito, Senior Fellow, Institute for Democracy and Economic Affairs weighs in on elements of the policy and whether it can address the problems of the housing sector in Malaysia.

Produced by: Shazana Mokhtar

1. Covid 19 dan Kondisi Ekonomi Dunia
1.1 Covid 19 dan Munculnya Krisis Ekonomi Dunia: Sebuah
Pengantar.
1.2. Dampak Kebijakan Lockdown Terhadap Kondisi Ekonomi
Dunia.
1.3. Efek Pandemi Terhadap Sektor Agrikultur Dunia.
2. Kondisi Ekonomi Indonesia dalam Pandemi COVID 19
2.1. Kasus COVID 19 di Indonesia.
2.2. Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Indonesia di Kala Pandemi Covid-19.
2.3. Dampak Sosial dari Kebijakan Lockdown/PSBB.
2.4. Berbagai Paket Kebijakan Stimulus
2.5. Berapa Lama Pandemi Akan Bertahan?
2.6. An exit strategy.
2.7. Kesimpulan Pemikiran.
3. Efek Covid 19 dan kebijakan Lockdown/PSBB terhadap Pasar
Properti Indonesia.
4. Kesimpulan.

Kelvin Yee, Kam Raslan, Aiman Rashad and Tasha Fusil, How Extensions for Developers Affect Homebuyers, «BFM 89.9 – The Evening Edition», 7 November 2019, https://www.bfm.my/podcast/evening-edition/evening-edition/how-extensions-for-developers-affect-homebuyers.

The National House Buyers Association called out the government recently for continuing a practice of giving property developers EOT or extensions of time without valid reasons. We ask if you have ever been affected by these delays as a homebuyer.

BFM 89.9 discussed the topic with Dr Carmelo Ferlito, IDEAS Senior Fellow, on 7 November 2019, during The Evening Edition.

Produced by: Tasha Fusil

Presented by: Kelvin Yee, Kam Raslan, Aiman Rashad

Bu çalışmada gayrimenkul geliştirme sürecini anlamaya yönelik literatürde üretilen analitik modeller özetlenmekte ve bu modellerin Türkiye’de tecrübe edilen gayrimenkul geliştirme süreçlerini açıklamadaki başarısı sorgulanmaktadır. Modeller, dört gruba ayrılarak incelenmiştir: Sıralı-Olay Yaklaşımı, Aktör-Odaklı Yaklaşım, Yapı-Odaklı Yaklaşım ve Kurumcu Yaklaşım. Her bir yaklaşım, gayrimenkul geliştirme sürecini açıklarken başka bir düzeye odaklanmakta, bu yüzden sürece dair farklı bir anlayış üretmektedir. Bir başlangıç çalışması niteliğinde olan bu araştırma, mevcut modelleri irdelemeyi ve modellerin Türkiye açısından çalışan ve çalışmayan kısımlarını ortaya çıkarmayı hedeflemektedir. Araştırma, modellerin Türkiye’deki gayrimenkul geliştirme süreçlerini açıklamadaki başarısının sınırlı olduğunu göstermiştir.

Modellerin sunduğu perspektifler, Türkiye gayrimenkul piyasasında yürütülen gayrimenkul geliştirme projelerinin hayata geçiriliş şeklini, yürütülüş tarzını ve süreç dinamiklerini açıklama noktasında yetersiz kalmaktadır. Bu yüzden Türkiye gayrimenkul sektörünün yasal/kurumsal/endüstriyel yapısına ve işleyiş gerçekliğine uyan, evrensel ve mahalli düzeyde süreci her boyutuyla ele alan özgün modellerin üretilmesine ihtiyaç vardır.

Global lockdown of all economic activities due to the COVID-19 pandemic have a consequential impact on all aspects of the economy including real estate. This assertion necessitates the need to evaluate the impact of the pandemic on real estate transactions in Nigeria commercial capital. This study assessed real estate transactions in Lagos during COVID-19 pandemic. The specific objectives of the study were: to examine real estate supply, demand and real estate transaction sale and rental value in the study area. Also, the study examined rate of real estate transactions and problems of real estate transactions during the COVID-19 pandemic. The study populations for the study are the Estate Surveying and Valuation firms in the study area. Data were gathered through questionnaires administered to the respondents. Data gathered were analyzed using descriptive statistics such as: frequency distribution table, relative importance index and ranking. Findings from the study revealed that warehouses (industrial properties) are the class of property that is most readily available for occupation and demand with indexes (RII) of 4.184 and 4.382 respectively. Warehouses have the highest sale and rental value during this period with a RII of 4.204 and 4.211 respectively. Majority of the respondents (77.632%) revealed that real estate transactions were relatively static in comparison to the period before the pandemic. The most predominant real estate transaction problem in the study area is bank transaction related problem with a RII of 4.211. Recommendations were made on how to alleviate the identified problems in time of similar pandemic in the future.

ABSTRACT
Turkey is well behind the many countries according to socio-
economic development criteria. Activities aim to make Istanbul a financial center seem paradoxical due to less developed and risky characteristics of national economy and financial system. It seems that these activities have both economic and political rationales. Economic rationale of the Istanbul Financial Center (IFC) project suggests that Turkish economy has transformed to a safe harbor. Political rationale of this project may imply that evolving economy politics of post 9/11 environment may create economic advantages for Turkey. It has observed that the tool of regulation is of central role for the idea of the development of a financial center in Istanbul. In this paper, by using literature and data analysis, we examine the chance of the success of the regulatory/bureaucratic approach for IFC project.

We conclude that IFC project has weak internal dynamics and it occurred due to both its political attractiveness and also cyclical local/global economic/political conditions. But, it is not realistic to expect strong positive outcomes from the IFC project, if the project would focus only regulatory/bureaucratic approach.

ÖZET
Kalkınmışlık ölçütleri açısından ülkemiz çoğu ülkenin gerisindedir. Ulusal ekonominin ve finansal sistemin birçok açıdan az gelişmişliği/riskliliği veri iken İstanbul’un finans merkezi olmasına ilişkin çalışmalar paradoksal görünmektedir. Bu amaçla ortaya konulan yaklaşımın ekonomik ve siyasi olmak üzere iki önemli dayanağının bulunduğu düşünülmektedir. Ekonomik bağlamda Türk ekonomisinin artık “güvenli liman” haline geldiği üzerinde durulurken, politik yaklaşımda ise 11 Eylül sonrasında değişen siyasi iklim çerçevesinde gelişen yeni ekonomi politiğin ülkemiz lehine ekonomik avantaja dönüştürülebileceği gündeme getirilmektedir. Söz konusu avantajlardan finansal merkez olunması şeklinde bir değerin ortaya çıkmasında ise; kamu yönetiminin düzenleme işlevine merkezi bir rol verildiği görülmektedir. Yöntem olarak literatür taraması ve karşılaştırmalı veri analizinin esas alındığı bu çalışmada, düzenlemeci bir yaklaşım çerçevesinde İstanbul’un finansal merkez olması projesinin gerçekleştirilebilirliği incelenmiştir. İnceleme sonucunda; daha çok konjonktürel nedenler/siyasi cazibesi nedeniyle gündeme getirildiği ve içsel dinamiklerinin zayıf olduğu düşünülen İstanbul’un finansal merkez olması projesinin; salt düzenlemeci bir yaklaşım çerçevesinde hayata geçirilmesinin gerçekçi/inandırıcı olmadığı sonucuna ulaşılmıştır.

Many local property markets have been changed and internationalized as a result of globalisation and liberalisation processes which have speeded up significantly, especially in the last thirty years. There are some studies in the property literature which are interested in understanding local property market structures and behaviour. However, there are no studies about how a local property market becomes changed and internationalized. This research aims to fill that gap. It attempts to make a detailed exploration of the change and internationalization process in a local property market from the perspectives of both local and global players. This exploration is important, especially for local property markets which have not experienced an internationalization process yet or which have recently started to experience this process, because this exploration may develop the internationalization process of local property markets into one which is more manageable for governments, legislators and policy makers. Healthy property markets which are structurally well-configured, which give sustainable performance and which work with fewer problems may be created if the internationalization process of local property markets is managed well. The question of how local and global interactions in a local property market change the legal and institutional structure of that property market is answered in this research. Istanbul’s retail property market (IRPM) is selected as the case study for this research. A qualitative methodology is followed; interview and document analysis methods are used. Local and global interactions in IRPM are examined from the perspective of the Glocalisation Theory (GT) whilst structural changes are examined with the help of the Morphogenetic Approach (MA). IRPM’s change and internationalization process is analysed using a unique theoretical and methodological framework which is developed through the combination of GT and MA. This study shows that a cyclical relationship exists between global-local interactions and structural changes in property markets. This cycle, which is illustrated at the end of the study, points out that local players’ decisions and actions are more effective than global players’ decisions and actions in the change and internationalization process of a property market; also, this cycle indicates the importance of institutionalization [organized behaviour] in the internationalization process of property markets. It is found that changes in IRPM are dependent on four factors. These are Turkey’s economic and international relations policy; political and economic events which are experienced in Turkey; structural conditionings which are produced by existing laws, public authorities and private associations; and the socio-spatial characteristics of the market environment. These factors, which have an impact on the internationalization process of a local property market, reveal that local property markets do not change but evolve; and every property market experiences a unique evolution process. This evolution may be brought under control by governors, legislators and policy makers. When this happens, structurally well-configured property markets may be created.

According to Mark Thornton, we could be very close to another major economic crisis. Ten years have passed from the so-called Great Recession and Thornton's prediction confirms my view according to which business fluctuations are pervasive, and the crisis that emerged in the Western world in 2007 is just the latest and most evident manifestation of such dynamics. I have expressed the idea that business cycles are unavoidable by developing the doctrine of the natural cycle. In the present paper I used that framework in order to describe the evolution of the Malaysian property market in the last decade in the context of the general development of the national economy. In fact, it seems that this evolution presents many features of the cyclical dynamic that brought about the Great Recession after a ten year delay.

World Economics Association (WEA) Conferences, No. 2 2018, The 2008 Economic Crisis Ten Years On, 15th October to 30th November, 2018.

27 November 2020, Housing Forward: From Housing Crisis to Housing Stability, a talk delivered to the REHDA Housing Conference 2020 – Beyond the Pandemic – Reshaping Real Estate, organized by REHDA Institute in the form of webinar in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, 26-27 November 2020.

Audio recording: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=68pPiRMoWhM&t=348s

The purpose of the study was to establish the effect of commercial bank lending interest rates on the performance of the residential property market in Kenya. Swelling of the residential property prices in Kenya vis a vis the commercial bank lending interest rates has ignited concerns about the sustainability of residential property market in Kenya. This study adopted a positivist philosophical attitude using causal research design. The study used secondary data from first quarter of 2005 to fourth quarter of 2018. The study conducted several test statistics and diagnostic tests in order to achieve the most optimal solution. Vector error correction model and auto-regressive distributed lag model were employed to test the hypothesis in the short run and long run respectively. The results found out that commercial bank lending interest rate had a negative effect on performance of residential properties in Kenya in both the short run and long run in line with loanable fund theory. The study has narrowed down the research gap brought about by the conflicting emprirical, theoretical and conceptual literature with regard to the effect of commercial bank lending interest rate on performance of residential property market in Kenya. To investor, the study recommends that need to negotiate for favorable loan terms especially interest rate given to them and/or their potential customers as it ultimatly influences their returns in the residential property market in Kenya both in the short run and long run.

Panel Discussion: Housing the Nation, Empowering the Buyer

• Comparison between Malaysia and other countries on the housing agenda in national budget;
• Housing affordability: A dream or reality?

Moderator: Tan Sri Datuk Eddy Chen Lok Loi (Chairman of PR1MA; REHDA Institute Trustee)

Panelists:
• Datuk Chung Chee Leong (President / CEO, CAGAMAS)
• Prof. Mahendhiran Nair (Vice President, Research & Development, Monash University Malaysia)
• Dr. Suraya Ismail (Director, Khazanah Research Institute, KRI)
• Dr. Carmelo Ferlito (Senior Fellow, Institute for Democracy and Economic Affairs, IDEAS)

The study examines globalization processes in property markets through an empirical investigation into the commercial property market of Greater Copenhagen. The focus is on investment in commercial properties. Globalization of property markets is de®ned, a framework of analysis presented and methodological problems reported. The analysis reveals a marked increase in the volumes and shares of foreign direct investment in the Copenhagen commercial property market between 1983 and 1995, after which there occurred a marked decrease. The ®ndings also suggest that the greater part of globalization in this case is accounted for by expansionary cross-border regionalization. Furthermore, there are manifestations of change in the stock exchange indicative of increased securitization of the market, facilitating a new round of globalization in the Copenhagen commercial property market. Ó

The research investigates the potential of a geographical information system to analyse the recorded displacement of office and industrial occupiers in Tyne and Wear, England. The paper demonstrates that a GIS provides an effective tool with which to illustrate, analyse and model occupier displacement and market filtering. The research goes on to develop and test an indicator with which to identify urban areas that may be most vulnerable to property occupier displacement. The correlation of rateable value and VAT registration datasets, with the origin of occupiers of new office and industrial developments and the location of vacant chain-end property, was tested. The strongest correlation is with new VAT registrations within a three-year period. A property market resilience indicator is developed, with which to classify urban areas in terms of their resilience or vulnerability to business occupier displacement generated by commercial property development.

Economic reality shows us that business fluctuations are everywhere and the crisis that emerged in the Western world in 2007 is just the latest and most evident manifestation of such dynamics. As mentioned in Ferlito (2016a, pp. 202-203), which develops the vision brought out in Ferlito (2014a), capitalism without fluctuations does not exist.
I expressed the idea that business cycles are unavoidable by developing the doctrine of the natural cycle (see in particular Ferlito 2016b, Chapter 3). I will now summarize that framework in order to describe the evolution of the property market in the last decade.
Section 2 presents the theory of the natural cycle, which will be used in section 3 for the analysis of the Malaysian property market over the past decade. According to such framework, business cycles are originated from positive profit expectations and each expansionary wave is followed by a secondary wave, which can be called imitative-speculative, usually supported by credit expansion. Such an evolution can be observed in the Malaysian property market from 1997, while today the declining movement is already initiated.
In section 4, I focus on certain disproportionalities in the housing industry, arguing that the investor focus on the high-end segment was not unjustified and that government action is crowding out private constructors from the affordable housing segment.
In section 5, I present some free market-oriented policy suggestions, aiming to create the conditions to limit the insurgence of future crises, to face the coming property crisis, and to revive the affordable housing market. Section 6 concludes.

The aim of the research presented is to explore how business occupiers decide whether and where to relocate. It captures the experience and behaviour of a range of sizes and types of business occupier and subjects their decision making processes to detailed scrutiny.  A linear three-stage decision model is used to sequence and structure interviews with individuals who have intimate involvement with the relocation of 28 firms and organisations in Tyne and Wear, in the North East of England. 

The ‘constant comparative’ method is used to analyse the interview data from which emerges 18 key concepts, comprising 51 characteristic components.  Using an axial approach, these are organised into ten cross-cutting themes that  represent the main areas of consideration or influence on the thinking of the people involved in determining whether a firm or organisation should relocate and where to.

The resulting analysis finds that organisations adopt varying degrees of sophistication when making relocation decisions; small firms are more inclined to make decisions based on constrained information; larger organisations adopt a more complex approach.  Regardless of firm size, key individuals exert considerable influence over the decision-making process and its outcome.

Giá bất động sản ở Hà Nội hiện nay được cho là cao không tương xứng với thu nhập dân cư. Tại sao thị trường có giá cao như vậy mà người dân có thu nhập thấp vẫn tồn tại được? Xu hướng giá cả sẽ như thế nào? Bài viết này tiếp cận vấn đề tài chính nhà ở để giải thích tình trạng hiện nay.

SURIN MURUGIAH, Freezing approvals for luxury property developments is not in right direction, says think tank, «The Edge Markets», 11 January 2018, http://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/freezing-approvals-luxury-property-developments-not-right-direction-says-think-tank

Thị trường bất động sản (chủ yếu là nhà ở) đóng băng là vấn đề được quan tâm hiện nay. Tuy nhiên, có những nội dung kể cả học thuật và thực tiễn cần được làm rõ hơn. Bài viết bàn về giải pháp phá băng thị trường bất động sản thông qua phân tích một số quan điểm đánh giá thị trường hiện nay.

With funding from the RICS Education Trust, Paul Greenhalgh and Helen King of Northumbria University, UK sought to investigate whether using Geographic Information Systems (GIS) can enhance the representation and analysis of property occupier chaining data – the method used to analyse the chain of moves that take place when firms occupy new premises.  The way that they tested this was by transferring a dataset of office and industrial occupier chains in Tyne and Wear that had been created for an earlier study into a GIS, to illustrate, measure and analyse the chaining data more effectively than had previously been possible.  What they were able to show was that, although the process is time-consuming, it is a relatively straightforward and logical process, to translate property occupier chaining data into a GIS.

The resultant GIS representation was able to replicate and verify findings of the original research. For example, it confirmed the accuracy of the original calculation of the distances that occupiers move, but it also revealed that the average distance moved diminished the further that they occur along a chain. The team then used rateable value and VAT registration datasets to interpret the origin of occupiers of new office and industrial developments, and the location of vacant chain end property.  Of the two, the strongest correlation was with new VAT registrations within a three year period. New VAT registrations are associated with levels of economic activity and enterprise which would generate new businesses or start-ups that would typically take up small office and industrial units, thus absorbing vacant accommodation and contributing to property market filtering.

In 2015 the British government announced a number of major tax reforms for individual landlords. To give landlords time to adjust, some of these tax measures are being introduced gradually from April 2017, with full effect in tax year 2020/21. The changes in taxation have received much media attention since there has been widespread belief that the new measures were sufficiently skewed against landlords that they could signal the end of the Buy-To-Let (BTL) investment era in the UK. This paper assesses the prospective performance of BTL investments in London from the investor's perspective, and examines the impact of incoming tax reforms using a novel Temporal Bayesian Network model. The model captures uncertainties of interest by simulating the impact of changing circumstances and the interventions available to an investor at various time-steps of a BTL investment portfolio. The simulation results suggest that the new tax reforms are likely to have a detrimental effect on net p...

The Affordable Housing Debate: Home Ownership or Rental – The Way Forward, a panel discussion moderated by Ms Au Foong Yee (Managing Director & Editor-In-Chief, Edge Property). Panelists: YB Haniza binti Mohamed Talha (Selangor State EXCO for Housing), Datuk Chang Kim Loong (Honorary Secretary General, National House Buyers Association) and Dr. Carmelo Ferlito (Senior Fellow, Institute for Democracy and Economic Affairs (IDEAS)). The panel discussion was held during the National Housing and Property Focus Summit 2019 - The New Property Landscape in a Changing Business Environment – Where Do We Go From Here?, organized by Kingsley Strategic Institute, 23 April 2019, Palace of the Golden Horses, Seri Kembangan, Malaysia.