Population Studies

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While genotyping wild red deer (Cervus elaphus) at microsatellite loci for paternity assignment, we found three loci (MAP65, BOVIRBP and CelJP23) with segregating nonamplifying alleles. Nonamplifying alleles were detected through mismatches between known mother-offspring pairs and by significant deviations from Hardy-Weinberg equilibria. In a wide range of molecular ecology applications, and especially in parentage assignment, the possible existence of undetectable alleles must be taken into account; this may be particularly important for microsatellite data.

From the late Middle Ages onwards, many regions of Western Europe experienced heightened levels of inequality in the distribution of land, caused in many cases by the consolidation of property in the hands of various interest groups.What happened to those unfortunate rural groups (often impoverished) who lost their land to wealthier or more powerful interest groups? The aim of this paper is to explore then the demographic and settlement effects of land consolidation on pre-industrial rural communities.In the literature, a common connection has been drawn between land accumulation and strong population decline or stagnation in the countryside. Features associated with this downward demographic trend include high unemployment and a paucity of opportunity for work, impoverishment, settlement collapse, and a general trend of movement (permanent or temporary) towards the city in search of work. However, this outcome was not always inevitable as demonstrated in this paper. In that sense, while land consolidation may in many cases have been the motor which set in motion outward migration towards the cities, depopulation could have been avoided or limited within certain pre-industrial societies; as some societies may have been inherently more resilient than others. Thus, in this paper, a basic hypothesis is tested that land consolidation may have had a divergent impact on population trends in the countryside, which was closely dependant on the arrangement of rural societies themselves. Here two cases of peasant expropriation, land consolidation and a transition to a rural economy dominated by large farms are contrasted, and the divergent impact on population trends is analysed. In other words, this paper considers the capacity of different rural economies to maintain and retain its labouring (and now landless) population – a test performed by comparing two historical cases in the Northern part of the Low Countries.

The objective was to study the association between chronic diseases, symptoms, and poor self-rated health among men and women and in different age groups, and to assess the contribution of chronic diseases and symptoms to the burden of poor self-rated health in the general population. Self-rated health and self-reported diseases and symptoms were investigated in a population sample of 6,061 men and women aged 35-79 years in Värmland County in Sweden. Odds ratios (OR) and population attributable risks (PAR) were calculated to quantify the contribution of chronic diseases and symptoms to poor self-rated health. Depression, neurological disease, rheumatoid arthritis, and tiredness/weakness had the largest contributions to poor self-rated health in individuals. Among the elderly (65-79 years), neurological disease and cancer had the largest contribution to selfrated health in men, and renal disease, rheumatoid arthritis, and cancer in women. Among the middle-aged (35-64 years), depression and tiredness/ weakness were also important, especially in women. From a population perspective, tiredness/weakness explained the largest part of poor self-rated health due to its high prevalence in the population. Depression and musculoskeletal pains were also more important than other chronic diseases and symptoms at the population level. Even though many chronic diseases (such as neurological disease, rheumatoid arthritis, and cancer) are strongly associated with poor self-rated health in the individual, common symptoms (such as tiredness/weakness and musculoskeletal pains) as well as depression contribute more to the total burden of poor self-rated health in the population. More preventive measures should therefore be directed against these conditions, especially when they are not consequences of other diseases.

The apolipoprotein E (APOE) genotype is a genetic risk factor for dementia, Alzheimer's disease, and cardiovascular disease (CVD). It includes three alleles (e2, e3, e4) that are located on chromosome 19q3.2. The e3 allele is the most common and is more common in people of Northern European ancestry and less common in those of Asian ancestry. Those with at least one e4 allele are at increased risk for CVD outcomes. It is well established that the presence of an e4 allele is linked to higher low-density lipoprotein cholesterol levels, even at young ages. Even though most CVD occurs in older people, there are few studies of the effects of APOE on CVD in older people. This review addresses recent research on the links between APOE, CVD, and vascular mechanisms by which APOE may affect CVD in the elderly.

Abdominal obesity increases the risk of clinical atherosclerotic diseases, but whether it accelerates the progression of preclinical atherosclerosis is unknown. We studied whether waist-to-hip ratio (WHR) and waist circumference are associated with 4-year increase in indicators of common carotid atherosclerosis, assessed by B-mode ultrasonography, in 774 Finnish men aged 42-60 years without atherosclerotic diseases. Men with WHR of B 0.91, 0.91-0.96 and \ 0.96 (thirds) had increase in maximal intima-media thickness (IMT) of 0.230, 0.255 and 0.281 mm/4 years (P= 0.007 for linear trend; P= 0.025 for difference) and plaque height of 0.241, 0.254 and 0.291 mm/4 years (P= 0.005, P= 0.013) adjusting for age, body mass index and technical covariates. Men with waist circumference of B85, 85-93 and \ 93 cm (thirds) had increase in maximal IMT of 0.227, 0.251 and 0.290 mm/4 years (P=0.011, P=0.035) and plaque height of 0.229, 0.263 and 0.296 mm/4 years (P = 0.003, P = 0.013).

1. Photographic mark-recapture is a cost-effective, non-invasive way to study populations. However, to efficiently apply photographic mark-recapture to large populations, computer software is needed for image manipulation and pattern matching.

Paul Robbins (first author) and Sara Smith
Despite the persistence of Malthusian arguments that human population will grow to outstrip the Earth’s capacity and resources, current demography actually foretells the impending end of growth in the next half century. We are approaching a global baby bust. What does this mean for global political labor economies, regional resource economics, and local struggles over gender and power? This paper concludes, through a survey of current research, that geographers already have the conceptual equipment to answer these enormously important questions. We further argue that the fundamental underpinnings of much contemporary economic and social theory, having been developed in times of rapid population growth and labor surplus, must be reconsidered as we enter a period of different material conditions. Reviewing recent developments in population geography and feminist geopolitics, global geographies of labor and aging, and emerging patterns of resource intensification and disintensification, we suggest that – if infused with an explicit political economy – attending to the baby bust can show the way forward to help revitalize our understanding of bodies and materiality in critical and human geography.

We present a theoretical framework that organizes individual-level fertility motivations into a couple-level model. One feature of this framework is the Traits-Desires-Intentions-Behaviour (TDIB) sequence through which the fertility motivations of individuals produce instrumental behaviours that are designed to promote or prevent childbearing. A second feature of this framework is the cognitive capacity of individuals to perceive a partner's motivational structure. We combine these two features into a dyad-level model that addresses interactions between partners at each step of the motivational sequence. We elaborate this model first with respect to the perception of partner's motivational structure and second with respect to the combination of partner's and own motivational structure. In the process we consider how couple-level processes of communication, influence, and disagreement can be measured and studied through these interactions. We conclude with a summary discussion of the framework and a consideration of the implications it has for a theory of reproductive psychology, population surveys, and family planning services.

The assessment of the mortality level of a population is often based on information including the number of registered deaths. In many developing nations, however, deaths are underregistered by a significant margin, which in turn may lead to a biased estimate of the level of mortality.

New-Onset Diabetes After Transplantation (NODAT) is an increasingly recognized severe metabolic complication of kidney transplantation causing lower graft function and survival and reduced long-term patient survival mainly due to cardiovascular events. The real incidence of NODAT after kidney transplantation is difficult to establish, because different classification systems and definitions have been employed over the years. Several risk factors, already present before or arising after transplantation, in particular the employed immunosuppressive regimens, have been related to the development of NODAT. However the responsible pathogenic mechanisms are still far to be perfectly known. Awareness of NODAT and of the NODAT-related factors is of paramount importance for the clinicians in order to individuate higher risk patients and arrange screening strategies. The risk of NODAT can be reduced by planning preventive measures and by tailoring immunosuppressive regimens according to the patient characteristics. Once NODAT has been diagnosed, the administration of specific anti-hyperglycemic therapy is mandatory to reach a tight glycemic control, which contributes to significantly reduce posttransplant mortality and morbidity.

Using high-quality longitudinal data on 125,720 singleton live births in Matlab, Bangladesh, we assessed the effects of duration of intervals between pregnancy outcomes on infant and child mortality and how these effects vary over subperiods of infancy and childhood and by the type of outcome that began the interval. Controlling for other correlates of infant and child mortality, we find that shorter intervals are associated with higher mortality. Interval effects are greater if the interval began with a live birth than with another pregnancy outcome. In the first week of the child's life, the effects of short intervals are greater if the sibling born at the beginning of the interval died; after the first month, the effects are greater if that sibling was still alive. Many relationships found are consistent with the maternal depletion hypothesis, and some with sibling competition. Some appear to be due to correlated risks among births to the same mother.

The concept of health and illness has been evolving since the very beginning of human intellect. In some ages illness was seen as curse from gods, sometimes it was thought to be done by supernatural powers. Over time we have come to know that health depends on the state of biology. Now, at the blink of age of knowledge we know that social factors have much to done with health and illness. In society, health is an outcome of social life and rules, where everyone is to play a role defined by society.

The question of whether people who stutter are generally more anxious than people who do not stutter has not yet been resolved. One major methodological barrier to determining whether differences exist has been the type of stuttering sample used. Studies investigating anxiety levels of those who stutter have mostly assessed people referred to stuttering therapy clinics, which is arguably a biased sample. To date, no studies have been published that have measured the anxiety levels of people who stutter in the community using random selection procedures. Such a sample is more likely to be representative of the population of people who stutter. The present study involved a random selection and telephone interview of people in 4,689 households. The telephone respondent was given a description of stuttering and asked if any person living in their household stuttered. If yes, a number of corroborative questions were asked, and permission was requested to tape the speech of the person believed to stutter over the telephone. A definite case of stuttering was based on (a) a positive detection of stuttering from the tape and (b) at least one of the corroborative questions supporting the diagnosis. A total of 87 people were identified as definite cases of stuttering across all ages, and 63 participants who were 15 years or older completed a trait anxiety questionnaire over the telephone. Mean trait anxiety levels were significantly higher than levels generally found in society, though differences were not large. Implications of these results are discussed.

Numerous studies document the urban poor disadvantage in child health conditions in African cities. This study uses DHS data from 23 countries in sub-Saharan Africa to examine whether the urban poor experience comparable disadvantages in maternal health. The results

A single round household survey was conducted between October 1997 and May 1998. Information was collected on 1545 Maasai households in Kenya and Tanzania using a standardized questionnaire. These data represent the first large-scale, cross-border comparable survey of socioeconomic indicators for the Maasai. The structure of the study is similar to that of a natural experiment: one ethnic group living in two very different nation-states. The survey results describe a current “snapshot” of Maasai livelihoods. Living arrangements are described at both the household (olmarei) and multihousehold (enkang) level, together with changes in housing type. The roles of cultivation, transhumant migration, and employment are described, including a consideration of the prevalence of murranism (warriorhood). The implications of rising levels of sedentarization and cash crop production for Maasai economic diversification are explored. Participation by Maasai in the tourism industry is extremely low despite the proximity of Maasai to major international tourist destinations in East Africa. Levels of formal education show a marked sex bias in completed primary school education in both countries, with far fewer women than men having attended school.

Small populations are susceptible to high genetic loads and random fluctuations in birth and death rates. While these selective forces can adversely affect their viability, small populations persist across taxa. Here, we investigate the resilience of small groups to demographic uncertainty, and specifically to fluctuations in adult sex ratio (ASR), partner availability and dispersal patterns. Using 25 years of demographic data for two Savannah Pumé groups of South American hunter–gatherers, we show that in small human populations: (i) ASRs fluctuate substantially from year to year, but do not consistently trend in a sex-biased direction; (ii) the primary driver of local variation in partner availability is stochasticity in the sex ratio at maturity; and (iii) dispersal outside of the group is an important behavioural means to mediate locally constrained mating options. To then simulate conditions under which dispersal outside of the local group may have evolved, we develop two mathematical models. Model results predict that if the ASR is biased, the globally rarer sex should disperse. The model's utility is then evaluated by applying our empirical data to this central prediction. The results are consistent with the observed hunter–gatherer pattern of variation in the sex that disperses. Together, these findings offer an alternative explanation to resource provisioning for the evolution of traits central to human sociality (e.g. flexible dispersal, bilocal post-marital residence and cooperation across local groups). We argue that in small populations, looking outside of one's local group is necessary to find a mate and that, motivated by ASR imbalance, the alliances formed to facilitate the movement of partners are an important foundation for the human-typical pattern of network formation across local groups.

The article presents state-socialist and Catholic reproductive and population politics of Cold War Poland, focusing on competing discourses of population growth that were present in public debates since the 1950s up to the 1970s. Situating the local Polish case in a wider international framework, I examine references to Malthusian and Marxists theories of population in the statements of party-state and Catholic journalists during the only period of (mod-erate) anti-natalism in the history of state-socialist Poland. I argue that by ignoring the more moderate Catholic population and reproductive politics rationales, party-state journalists attempted to position Church leaders and commentators as unanimous supporters of 'unfettered fertility' and to present the party state as the only modernizing force whose population and reproductive politics would guarantee Polish citizens' prosperous standards of living attained thanks to small-sized families rearing high-quality children. In the official rhetoric this model of the modern family was to be achieved thanks to contraceptives that were endorsed by the party state supporting a 'conscious motherhood' campaign initiated in the late 1950s by the Polish family planning association.

In vitro and in vivo studies suggest that carotenoids may inhibit bone resorption, yet no previous study has examined individual carotenoid intake (other than b-carotene) and the risk of fracture. We evaluated associations of total and individual carotenoid intake (a-carotene, b-carotene, b-cryptoxanthin, lycopene, lutein + zeaxanthin) with incident hip fracture and nonvertebral osteoporotic fracture. Three hundred seventy men and 576 women (mean age, 75 ± 5 yr) from the Framingham Osteoporosis Study completed a food frequency questionnaire (FFQ) in 1988-1989 and were followed for hip fracture until 2005 and nonvertebral fracture until 2003. Tertiles of carotenoid intake were created from estimates obtained using the Willett FFQ adjusting for total energy (residual method). HRs were estimated using Cox-proportional hazards regression, adjusting for sex, age, body mass index, height, total energy, calcium and vitamin D intake, physical activity, alcohol, smoking, multivitamin use, and current estrogen use. A total of 100 hip fractures occurred over 17 yr of follow-up. Subjects in the highest tertile of total carotenoid intake had lower risk of hip fracture (p = 0.02). Subjects with higher lycopene intake had lower risk of hip fracture (p = 0.01) and nonvertebral fracture (p = 0.02). A weak protective trend was observed for total b-carotene for hip fracture alone, but associations did not reach statistical significance (p = 0.10). No significant associations were observed with a-carotene, b-cryptoxanthin, or lutein + zeaxanthin. These results suggest a protective role of several carotenoids for bone health in older adults.

Indigenous peoples possess knowledge about wildlife that dates back many generations. Inuit observations of historical changes in a caribou population on southern Baffin Island, collected from 43 elders and active hunters during 1983–95, indicate that caribou were abundant and their distributions extensive in most coastal areas of southern Baffin Island from c.1900–25. Subsequently, caribou distributions contracted and abundance declined, probably reaching an overall low in the 1940s. Beginning in the mid-1950s, distributions and abundance increased gradually, at least until the mid-1980s. Changes in distribution occurred mainly during autumn, as caribou migrated to their wintering areas. Within most wintering areas, increases in caribou abundance followed a process of range expansion, range drift (i.e., expanding on one front while contracting on another), and finally range shift (i.e., mass emigration to a new winter range). During the population decline and low, the caribou often exhibited winter range volatility (i.e., frequent, unpredictable interannual range shifts). On the basis of Inuit descriptions of caribou abundance, we estimated that the population as a whole decreased an average of 9% annually from 1910 to 1940, and then increased about 8% annually from 1940 to 1980. This pattern was largely consistent across southern Baffin Island. As Inuit elders had predicted in 1985, the population essentially abandoned its highest-density wintering area on Foxe Peninsula during the late 1980s, apparently emigrating en masse to a new wintering area on Meta Incognita Peninsula, about 375 km to the southeast. Inuit knowledge suggested that caribou population fluctuations are cyclic, with each full cycle occurring over the lifetime of an elder. Both this study and historical records dating from 1860 support a periodicity of 60–80 years for fluctuations of the South Baffin caribou population. Inuit elders suggested that the abundance of caribou on wintering areas decreases several years after caribou occupy small coastal islands, a phenomenon currently occurring throughout southern Baffin Island, except on Cumberland Peninsula. The Inuit recognize two ecotypes of caribou: migratory upland-lowland caribou and resident mountain-plateau caribou. After migratory caribou from Foxe Peninsula shifted their winter range around 1990, Meta Incognita Peninsula was occupied by both ecotypes. The migratory caribou apparently occupy low elevations, while the resident caribou remain in the mountains, producing two seasonal migratory patterns. Inuit knowledge proved to be temporally and spatially more complete than the written record.

What determines remittances -altruism or enlightened self-interest -and do remittances trigger additional migration? These two questions are examined empirically in Egypt, Turkey and Morocco for households with family members living abroad. Results show, first, that one cannot clearly pinpoint altruistic or motives of self-interest since each country tells a different story and within a country both motives can be defended as driving forces behind remittance behaviour. A general conclusion based on a multi-country study is that the family ties and the net earnings potential of emigrants have stronger effects on receipt of remittances than net earnings potential of households in the country of origin. Second, the receipt of remittances has a positive effect on emigration intentions of household members living in the country of origin. Therefore, receipt of remittances may contribute to new flows of migration, in particular in the case of Morocco.

This study assesses the Vitamin D status of 126 healthy free-living adults aged 18-87 years, in southeast Queensland, Australia (27°S) at the end of the 2006 winter. Participants provided blood samples for analysis of 25(OH)D (the measure of an individual's Vitamin D status), PTH, Calcium, Phosphate, and Albumin, completed a questionnaire on sun-protective/sun-exposure behaviours, and were assessed for phenotypic characteristics such as skin/hair/eye colour and BMI. We found that 10.2% of the participants had serum 25(OH)D levels below 25 nmol/l (considered deficient) and a further 32.3% had levels between 25 nmol/l and 50 nmol/l (considered insufficient). Our results show that low levels of 25(OH)D can occur in a substantial proportion of the population at the end of winter, even in a sunny climate. 25(OH)D levels were higher amongst those who spent more time in the sun and lower among obese participants (BMI > 30) than those who were not obese (BMI < 30). 25(OH)D levels were also lower in participants who had black hair, dark/olive skin, or brown eyes, when compared with participants who had brown or fair hair, fair skin, or blue/green eyes. No associations were found between 25(OH)D status and age, gender, smoking status, or the use of sunscreen.

From a longtudinal survey of a British cohort born in 1958 this study finds that by age 33 off-spring whose parents divorce are more likely to have dissolved their first partnerships. This finding persists after taking into account age at first partnership, type of first partnership (marital, pre-marital cohabiting union and cohabiting union), and indicators of class background and childhood and adolescent school achievement and behaviour problems. Some of these factors are associated with partnership dissolution in their own right, but the association bettveen parental divorce and second generation partnership dissolution is largely independent ofthem. Demographic factors, including type o f and age at first partnership were important links bettveen parental divorce and partnership dissolution. Moreover, the estimated effects of parental divorce were substantially reduced when the demographic variables were taken into account, suggesting that cohabitation and early partnership may be important pathways through which a parental divorce, o r the unmeasured characteristics correlated with it, affect partnership dissolution.

Throughout developing countries, major world religions are spreading into areas important for biodiversity conservation, and little is know about the potential effects of this expansion. This paper examines the effect of religious ideals on mechanisms that underlie changes in population growth, economic development, and land conversion within a polygamous, agro-pastoral society near Tarangire National Park in northern Tanzania where Christianity is spreading rapidly. Mixed qualitative and quantitative methods of data collection and analysis are used to (1) identify primary Christian ideals and church messages within local communities regarding family planning, development, and land use; and (2) estimate the association between church membership and household measures of family size, school enrollment, and land use controlling for other factors. Findings indicate that the effects of church messages and membership may be consistent with conversation goals to limit population growth, promote local development, and encourage certain land uses over others.

BACKGROUND
Pressures to keep immigration rates at relatively high levels are likely to persist in most developed countries. At the same time, immigrant cohorts are becoming more and more diverse, leading host societies to become increasingly heterogeneous across multiple dimensions. For scholars who study demographic or socio-economic behaviours, the need to account for ethno-cultural “super-diversity” brings new challenges.
OBJECTIVE
The main objective of this paper is to present a framework for the prospective analysis of super-diversity in several high immigration countries.
METHODS
We developed microsimulation models that simultaneously project several population dimensions for Canada, the United States and countries of the European Union, with the aim of studying the consequences of alternate future population and migration trends.
RESULTS
The paper presents the projected progression of three indicators of diversity: percentage of foreign-born population, percentage of the population using a non-official language at home and percentage of non-Christians. It also examines the projected changes in thelabour force by education levels and language. Using alternative scenarios, we also
show that the proportion of highly educated in the US and EU28 labour force could increase by 11 and 15 percentage points respectively if future immigrants were selected as in Canada. Finally, the paper proposes a new longitudinal indicator that counts the number of years lived as active and inactive over the life course for foreign- and native-born cohorts.
CONTRIBUTION
The microsimulation models provide much more informative results than more traditional cohort-component models to study the future effects of ethno-cultural superdiversity on high immigration countries.

Urban demographic transition can be defined as the historical period in which the population growth of cities structurally changes the settlement of territories. During this period, the urban population rate, which was previously very low, less than one-tenth of the population from the origins of humanity at least until the beginning of the 19th century, grew to be more than half of the population and sometimes much more. On a global average, the urban demographic transition was complete by 2008. Yet this transition is a double surprise in the history of the earth. The authors of the past had by no means envisaged it, and it is unprecedented in the history of the settlement of our planet. It will therefore be necessary to explain the unforeseen process that led to it. But it is essential to understand that urbanisation is deployed in a very differing way according to territories and countries. Finally, it is important to examine the period of post-transition, which concerns all countries whose urbanisation rate exceeds half the total population.

The present study examines the emigration intentions of native-born Dutch residents and their subsequent emigration behaviour from 2005-10. Data were collected from two surveys on emigration intentions, one conducted locally and one nationally. A number of novel results stand out. First, intentions were good predictors of future emigration; 34 per cent of those who had stated an intention to emigrate actually emigrated within the fiveyear follow-up period. Second, the personality of potential migrants and their discontent about the quality of the public domain in the Netherlands (e.g. mentality, crowded space and nature, pollution, crime) were the strongest driving forces for moving abroad. Third, the main difference between movers and those who stated intentions to emigrate but had not (yet) followed through was their state of health: healthy people were more likely to follow through with their migration intentions than those in poorer health.

Within-population studies are needed to investigate the extent of, and the factors underlying, intraspecific variation in home range size. We used data from 12 female and 8 male adult lions instrumented with GPS radio-collars to describe the ranging behaviour of lions in a population from a dystrophic semi-arid savanna, Hwange National Park, Zimbabwe. We measured prey availability at the home range scale in 2003, 2004, and 2005. For females, home range size increased as pride biomass increased, which is strongly suggestive of expansionism. Once controlled for pride biomass, home range size decreased as prey biomass increased. Pride ranges responded to changes in food abundance on an annual timescale rather than on a seasonal timescale. Female home range size was influenced by the abundance of kudu in the early dry season, whereas it was influenced by buffalo and young elephant abundance in the late dry season. This study shows that female home range size is mainly driven by the size of the pride, but also by prey abundance. Furthermore, female seasonal home range size may be determined, not only by prey abundance, but also by prey dispersion in the landscape. Home range size of males was driven by both prey biomass and the density of female prides.

Inadequate data and apartheid policies have meant that, until recently, most demographers have not had the opportunity to investigate the level of, and trend in, the fertility of South African women. The 1996 South Africa Census and the 1998 Demographic and Health Survey provide the first widely available and nationally representative demographic data on South Africa since 1970. Using these data, this paper describes the South African fertility decline from 1955 to 1996. Having identified and adjusted for several errors in the 1996 Census data, the paper argues that total fertility at that time was 3.2 children per woman nationally, and 3.5 children per woman for African South Africans. These levels are lower than in any other sub‐Saharan African country. We show also that fertility in South Africa has been falling since the 1960s. Thus, fertility transition predates the establishment of a family planning programme in the country in 1974.

Since the transition to democracy in Spain in 1975, both total fertility and rates of church attendance of Catholics have dropped dramatically. In this study the 1985 and 1999 Spanish Fertility Surveys were used to investigate whether the significance of religion for fertility behaviour *current family size and the spacing of births *changed between the survey dates. In the 1985 survey, family size was similar for those Catholics who actively participated in religious activities and those who, though nominally Catholic, were not active participants. By 1999, the family size of the latter was lower and comparable to the family size of those without religious affiliation. These findings accord with the declines in both church attendance and fertility in Spain. The small groups of Protestants and Muslims had the highest fertility. Women in inter-faith unions had relatively low fertility.