Pest Risk Analysis

EPPO member countries requested that a study be conducted to identify and better address the risks presented by the trade of plants for planting, which has led to numerous introductions of pests into the EPPO region in recent years. Concerns were raised about the efficacy of the current plant health systems in place in the EPPO region to deal with the risks presented by plants for planting. The EPPO Study on the Risk of Imports of Plants for Planting was launched by the EPPO Council in 2010. The first part of the Study was completed in spring 2012. It was published as EPPO Technical Document 1061 (http://www.eppo.int/QUARANTINE/EPPO_Study_on_Plants_for_planting.pdf). Examples of pest outbreaks in the EPPO region suspected to be caused by international trade of plants for planting were analyzed. This analysis identified characteristics of the pest/crop/trade patterns associated with the risks of importing pests. These characteristics are described as criteria that are intended to be used in a screening process to enable identification of commodities that require an assessment prior to import in the EPPO region. The further elaboration of the screening process is briefly outlined.Les pays membres de l'OEPP ont demandé qu'une étude soit réalisée pour identifier et mieux faire face aux risques présentés par le commerce de végétaux destinés à la plantation. Ce commerce a permis de nombreuses introductions d'organismes nuisibles dans la région OEPP depuis quelques années et cela a soulevé des préoccupations relatives à l'efficacité des systèmes phytosanitaires actuellement en place dans la région OEPP pour faire face aux risques présentés par les végétaux destinés à la plantation. L'Etude de l'OEPP sur les risques d'importations de végétaux destinés à la plantation a été lancé par le Conseil de l'OEPP en 2010. La première partie de l'étude a été achevée au printemps 2012. Elle été publié comme Document Technique OEPP 1061 (http://www.eppo.int/QUARANTINE/EPPO_Study_on_Plants_for_planting.pdf). Des exemples de foyers d'organismes nuisibles dans la région OEPP suspectés d'avoir été causés par le commerce international de végétaux destinés à la plantation ont été analysés. Cette analyse a identifié les caractéristiques des combinaisons organisme/culture/commerce associées aux risques d'importer des organismes nuisibles. Ces critères sont destinés à être utilisés dans un processus de sélection pour permettre l'identification de marchandises qui nécessitent une évaluation avant d'être importées dans la région OEPP. L'élaboration du processus de sélection est brièvement présentée.

The potential phytosanitary importance of all named plant-parasitic nematode species was determined by evaluating available information on species characteristics, association with economically-important crop hosts, and ability to act as vectors of viruses or form disease complexes with other pathogens. Most named species of plant-parasitic nematodes (PPN) are poorly known, recorded from a single location only, not associated with economically-important crops, and not known to be associated with other plant disease organisms. However, 250 species from 43 genera fulfilled one or more of the criteria to be considered to present a phytosanitary risk. The genera and number of species (in parentheses) considered as posing phytosanitary risk included: Achlysiella (1), Anguina (8), Aphasmatylenchus (1), Aphelenchoides (12), Aphelenchus (1), Belonolaimus (2), Bitylenchus (3), Bursaphelenchus (4), Cactodera (3), Ditylenchus (8), Dolichodorus (1), Globodera (3), Helicotylenchus (7), Hemicriconemoides (3), Hemicycliophora (3), Heterodera (25), Hirschmanniella (5), Hoplolaimus (5), Ibipora (3), Longidorus (10), Macroposthonia (2), Meloidogyne (38), Merlinius (3), Nacobbus (1), Neodolichodorus (2), Paralongidorus (2), Paratrichodorus (11), Paratylenchus (3), Pratylenchus (24), Punctodera (3), Quinisulcius (3), Radopholus (5), Rotylenchulus (3), Rotylenchus (1), Scutellonema (5), Sphaeronema (1), Subanguina (3), Trichodorus (5), Tylenchorhynchus (8), Tylenchulus (2), Vittatidera (1), Xiphinema (15) and Zygotylenchus (1). For each of the 250 species main hosts and yield loss estimates are provided with an extensive bibliography. Of the 250 species, only 126 species from 33 genera are currently listed as regulated pests in one or more countries worldwide. Almost all of these 250 species were also associated with economically important crops and some also acted as vectors for viruses.

Few species of plant-parasitic nematodes (PPN) are currently recognised as invasive but this is largely because of insufficient investigation and recognition. We compared the characteristics of PPN with those of invasive species generally, using the propagule pressure, abiotic and biotic factors (PAB) framework. Most PPN had many of the characteristics of invasive species and hence have the potential to become invasive. The most common characteristics included: adaptations for human mediated dispersal; multiple entry pathways; microscopic size; large number of propagules; high fecundity; many or cosmopolitan hosts; short lifecycle; ability to survive harsh or unfavourable conditions; ability to vary sex ratios; and ability to overcome host plant resistance. Information is lacking for many characteristics of many species and their impacts remain unquantified, which leaves some important unanswered questions and challenges for assessing PPN as invasive species. However many economically important PPN species have not been recognised as invasive, even when most of the known characteristics and data suggests they should be.

Given an understanding of factors that drive change in a firm’s external environment is an important element of strategy development, some form of environmental scan to identify factors tends to be included. This paper presents findings from an analysis of environmental scans conducted by 76 manufacturing firms. Firm’s senior decision makers brainstormed factors using the standard STEEPLE framework to prompt participants to consider social, technological, economic, ethical, political, legal, and environmental factors.
The first finding reveals that participants’ perspectives are dominated by events rather than trends. When the 886 responses were categorized as events, trends, requirements or uncertainties, over 70% of responses related to events. This finding is significant for advocates of systems thinking in strategy, and in addition the finding may provide quantitative evidence of cognitive bias in scanning.
Second, the brainstorms were found to vary significantly across two key dimensions: the breadth of factors identified within STEEPLE categories, and the number of factors identified in the most distant future time-period. Four brainstorm archetypes are suggested, and while the validity of the archetypes is subject to ongoing research work, the finding could aid workshop facilitators to tailor their approach to future scans.

Correlative species distribution models are becoming commonplace in the scientific literature and public outreach
products, displaying locations, abundance, or suitable environmental conditions for harmful invasive
species, threatened and endangered species, or species of special concern. Accurate species distribution models
are useful for efficient and adaptive management and conservation, research, and ecological forecasting. Yet,
these models are often presented without fully examining or explaining the caveats for their proper use and
interpretation and are often implemented without understanding the limitations and assumptions of the
model being used. We describe common pitfalls, assumptions, and caveats of correlative species distribution
models to help novice users and end users better interpret these models. Four primary caveats corresponding
to different phases of the modeling process, each with supporting documentation and examples, include:
(1) all sampling data are incomplete and potentially biased; (2) predictor variables must capture distribution
constraints; (3) no single model works best for all species, in all areas, at all spatial scales, and over time; and
(4) the results of species distribution models should be treated like a hypothesis to be tested and validated
with additional sampling and modeling in an iterative process.

Wilt/root rot diseases are a major chickpea production
constraint in Ethiopia causing yield losses by reducing
the number of plants. To determine the current status of
disease incidence and distribution, surveys were conducted
in the 2013/2014 and 2014/2015 cropping seasons in major
chickpea growing zones of Ethiopia. Despite recent efforts in
dissemination of improved varieties, low to high incidence
of 0.0–83.4, 0.0–27.6, 1.3–19.8 and 0.0–16.3% and 1.0–81.9,
0.0–25.5, 3.0–13.9 and 1.0–21.5% in East Gojjam, Southwest
Shewa, North Shewa and West Shewa in 2013/2014
and 2014/2015, respectively. Therefore, integrated pest
management strategies should be developed and availed to
farmers.

The European Commission requested EFSA to conduct a pest categorisation of Spodoptera frugiperda (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae) a pest with hosts in 27 plant families. Favoured hosts include maize, rice and sorghum (Poaceae). Hosts also include crops within the Brassicaceae, Cucurbitaceae, Solanaceae, Rutaceae and other families. S. frugiperda is a taxonomic entity with reliable methods for identification. It is regulated in the EU as a harmful organism whose introduction into the EU is banned. It is native to tropical and subtropical regions of the Americas and migrates to temperate regions in North and South America during the summer. Establishment in temperate areas is prevented by its inability to overwinter. S. frugiperda has been intercepted on plant produce entering the EU. Phytosanitary measures are available to impede entry via traded commodities. In 2016, S. frugiperda was reported damaging maize in Africa. Subsequent reports indicate that it continues to spread severely damaging maize and other crops. If S. frugiperda spreads into north Africa, the likelihood of adults migrating into the temperate EU increases. Within the scope and level of analysis appropriate for pest categorisation, the EFSA Plant Health Panel concludes that S. frugiperda could establish in a small area of the southern EU from where it is likely to enter more northern regions forming transient summer populations, particularly in maize growing regions where impacts on yield could occur. However, uncertainties regarding establishment remain. Considering the criteria within the remit of EFSA to assess as regards status as a potential Union quarantine pest (QP) or as a potential regulated non-quarantine pest (RNQP), S. frugiperda satisfies the criteria to be regarded a Union QP but does not meet the criteria of (i) occurring in the EU territory, and (ii) plants for planting being the principal means of spread, criteria required for RNQP status.

A field survey was conducted in Bangladesh for pathogen risk analysis of maize and listing of quarantine diseases in 2012 by the Department of Plant Pathology of Sher-e-Bangla Agricultural University under a project of QSSP, DAE. Pre-designed questionnaire was used in recording data of maize diseases based on the opinion of farmers and policy level officers of DAE under study area. Focus group discussion was arranged in each district and opinion of the respondents about maize diseases was recorded. Total 100 seed samples were collected throughout the country. Significant seed borne pathogens viz. Aspergillus flavus, A. niger, Penicillium spp., Rhizopus spp. and Fusarium moniliforme and Xanthomonas sp. have been detected through seed health testing. Altogether 17 maize diseases with 30 causal organisms of which 23 fungus, 2 bacteria, 3 virus and 2 nematode was identified as existing maize disease and pathogen of Bangladesh. Maize diseases of exporting countries were documented and a list of pathogen prepared to conduct pathogen risk analysis of Bangladesh. Pathogen risk analysis was done following the guideline of ISPM-2, ISPM-11 and ISPM-21 constituted by FAO. Sixteen pathogens were identified on maize grain from the maize exporting countries which have quarantine risk to Bangladesh and ten pathogens viz.  Phymatotrichopsis omnivore, Cercospora zeae-maydis, Maize dwarf mosaic potyvirus, High Plains virus, Wheat streak mosaic rymovirus, Sclerospora graminicola, Phymatotrichopsis omnivore, Maize chlorotic mottle machlomovirus, Pantoea stewartii subsp. Stewartii, Clavibacter michiganensis subsp. nebraskensis were found as highly quarantine concern for maize farming in Bangladesh.

Analysis of an invasive species’ niche shift between native and introduced ranges, along with potential distribution maps, can provide valuable information about its invasive potential. The tawny crazy ant, Nylanderia fulva, is a rapidly emerging and economically important invasive species in the southern
United States. It is originally from east-central South America and has also invaded Colombia and the Caribbean Islands. Our objectives were to generate a global potential distribution map for N. fulva, identify important climatic drivers associated with its current distribution, and test whether N. fulva’s realized
climatic niche has shifted across its invasive range. We used MaxEnt niche model to map the potential distribution of N. fulva using its native and invaded range occurrences and climatic variables. We used principal component analysis methods for investigating potential shifts in the realized climatic niche
of N. fulva during invasion. We found strong evidence for a shift in the realized climatic niche of N. fulva across its invasive range. Our models predicted potentially suitable habitat for N. fulva in the United States and other parts of the world. Our analyses suggest that the majority of observed occurrences of
N. fulva in the United States represent stabilizing populations. Mean diurnal range in temperature, degree days at ≥10°C, and precipitation of driest quarter were the most important variables associated with N. fulva distribution. The
climatic niche expansion demonstrated in our study may suggest significant
plasticity in the ability of N. fulva to survive in areas with diverse temperature
ranges shown by its tolerance for environmental conditions in the southern
United States, Caribbean Islands, and Colombia. The risk maps produced in
this study can be useful in preventing N. fulva’s future spread, and in managing
and monitoring currently infested areas.

For greater preparedness, pest risk assessors are required to prioritise long lists of pest species with potential to establish and cause significant impact in an endangered area. Such prioritization is often qualitative, subjective, and sometimes biased, relying mostly on expert and stakeholder consultation. In recent years, cluster based analyses have been used to investigate regional pest species assemblages or pest profiles to
indicate the risk of new organism establishment. Such an approach is based on the premise that the cooccurrence
of well-known global invasive pest species in a region is not random, and that the pest species profile or assemblage integrates complex functional relationships that are difficult to tease apart. In other words, the assemblage can help identify and prioritise species that pose a threat in a target region. A computational intelligence method called a Kohonen self-organizing map (SOM), a type of artificial neural
network, was the first clustering method applied to analyse assemblages of invasive pests. The SOM is a well known dimension reduction and visualization method especially useful for high dimensional data that more conventional clustering methods may not analyse suitably. Like all clustering algorithms, the SOM can give details of clusters that identify regions with similar pest assemblages, possible donor and recipient regions. More important, however SOM connection weights that result from the analysis can be used to rank the strength of association of each species within each regional assemblage. Species with high weights that are not already established in the target region are identified as high risk. However, the SOM analysis is only the first step in a process to assess risk to be used alongside or incorporated within other measures. Here we illustrate the application of SOM analyses in a range of contexts in invasive species risk assessment, and discuss other clustering methods such as k-means, hierarchical clustering and the incorporation of the SOM analysis into criteria based approaches to assess pest risk.

Introduction. Emergent diseases have a significant impact on the economiсs, trade and food security of the countries. One of them is the African swine fever which has today registered in all regions of Ukraine. The level of biosecurity of a pig population depends on a number of factors. A group of factors that contribute to the introduction of infectious diseases pathogens into the farm territory and a group of factors that cause the pathogens spread between pigs could be distinguished. The identification of these risks helps to eliminate or mitigate them, which creates preconditions for increasing the bio-security of enterprises and farms.
The goal of the work. To develop an algorithm for internal epizootic audit - the assessment of the condition of pig farms biosecurity for risk identification of the higly dangerous pathogens introducting by interviewing the management (responsible employees) of the pig farms.
Materials and methods of research. The method of epizootological examination in modification of "internal epizootological audit" was used. The analysis of the epizootic situation and the criteria selection for compiling the questionnaire were based on the analysis of the data of the website http://www.asf.vet.ua and the recommendations of FAO experts on biosafety issues.
Results of research and discussion. According to the dynamics of the registration of African swine fever (ASF) outbreaks in Ukraine from 2014 to 2017, the rate of increase in incidence was 2.2 ± 0.2 in average. In the beginning of epizootics 75% of ASF cases were detected in wild fauna, and in the last three years in average 76.8% of outbreaks occurred among domestic pigs, because the human associated factor has become the leading driving force of the epizootic process of the ASF.
To facilitate cooperation with pig owners an outreach campaign on work or the basic principles of farms biosafety and biosecurity and definition of the "compartmentalization" was carried out. A questionnaire was developed to assist farm specialists. Pigs owners, answering questions, participate in the "internal audit" on the biosecurity of their farm and identify the points in which these risks arise.
Conclusions and prospects for further research:
1. The epizootic situation on ASF in Ukraine tends to increase the incidence 2.2±0.2 times in average.
2. During the last three years, 76.8% of AFS outbreaks occurred among domestic pigs, indicating a significant lack of knowledge of the pig farms owners (managers.
3. The criteria for assessing of the emerging pigs diseases risks are the presence or absence of barriers for the introduction of pathogens of infectious diseases with infected animals and contaminated materials into the farms territory.
4. The use of the questionnaire for pig owners according to the proposed scheme will increase the awareness of pork producers in maintaining a healthy epizootic situation regarding infectious diseases of pigs.
Keywords: pigs, African swine fever, biosafety, risk analysis

Correlative species distribution models are becoming commonplace in the scientific literature and public outreach products, displaying locations, abundance, or suitable environmental conditions for harmful invasive species, threatened and endangered species, or species of special concern. Accurate species distribution models are useful for efficient and adaptive management and conservation, research, and ecological forecasting. Yet, these models are often presented without fully examining or explaining the caveats for their proper use and interpretation and are often implemented without understanding the limitations and assumptions of the model being used. We describe common pitfalls, assumptions, and caveats of correlative species distribution models to help novice users and end users better interpret these models. Four primary caveats corresponding to different phases of the modeling process, each with supporting documentation and examples, include:

The biosecurity risks from many plant-parasitic nematode (PPN) species are poorly known and remain a major challenge for identifying potentially invasive species. A self organising map (SOM) was used to prioritise biosecurity risks from PPN to the whole of continental Australia as well as each of the states and the Northern Territory separately. The SOM used the recorded worldwide distributions of 250 systematically selected species from 43 genera, and identified 18 different countries spanning Asia, Africa, North and Central America, Europe and the Pacific with very similar PPN assemblages to Australia as a whole. Many of the species in these countries are not recorded in Australia, and therefore pose a biosecurity risk. Analysed separately, the states and territories were identified as forming five separate clusters, each with a different region of the world, and with different characteristic PPN. Many of the PPN found in the regions clustered with an Australian state have not been recorded from anywhere in Australia, and others have very restricted distributions within Australia, thus posing different biosecurity risks. The SOM analysis ranked the risks of the different PPN based on likelihoods of establishment. The rankings confirmed the risks from frequently quarantined PPN, but more importantly identified species, which upon further investigation could be new threats. This method can be used to identify previously overlooked species for more detailed risk assessments.

A Knowledge-Based System for the risk analysis of proposed building projects was developed for a selected client. The Fuzzy Decision Variables (FDVs) that cause differences between initial and final contract sums of building projects were identified, the likelihood of the occurrence of the risks were determined and a Knowledge-Based System that would rank the risks was constructed using JAVA programming language and Graphic User Interface. The Knowledge-Based System is composed a Knowledge Base for storing data, an Inference Engine for controlling and directing the use of knowledge for problem-solution, and a User Interface that assists the user retrieve, use and alter data in the Knowledge Base. The developed Knowledge-Based System was compiled, implemented and validated with data of previously completed projects. The client could utilize the Knowledge-Based System to undertake proposed building projects

Given an understanding of factors that drive change in a firm's external environment is an important element of strategy development, some form of environmental scan to identify factors tends to be included. This paper presents findings from an analysis of environmental scans conducted by 76 manufacturing firms. Firm's senior decision makers brainstormed factors using the standard STEEPLE framework to prompt participants to consider social, technological, economic, ethical, political, legal, and environmental factors.

Zambia is a landlocked developing country in southern Africa. It is an importer and exporter of plants and plant products. These are potential pathways for introducing exotic plant pests that may affect agricultural production and/or limit access to international export markets. In this regard, the National Plant Protection Organization (NPPO) of Zambia is responsible for formulating phytosanitary regulations to ensure risks of introducing exotic plant pests are minimized. For this, the application of Pest Risk Analysis (PRA) is a vital component of any phytosanitary service. PRAs can be data demanding, time consuming and complex. As a consequence, a simplified procedure that aligns Zambia’s national phytosanitary capacity and resources has been developed. The procedure has potential to be applied by other developing countries in similar situations. This simplified procedure focuses on the entry, establishment and spread of pests, the consequences of their introduction, and uses rea...

Standardized tools are needed to identify and prioritize the most harmful non-native species (NNS). A plethora of assessment protocols have been developed to evaluate the current and potential impacts of non-native species, but consistency among them has received limited attention. To estimate the consistency across impact assessment protocols, 89 specialists in biological invasions used 11 protocols to screen 57 NNS (2614 assessments). We tested if the consistency in the impact scoring across assessors, quantified as the coefficient of variation (CV), was dependent on the characteristics of the protocol, the taxonomic group and the expertise of the assessor. Mean CV across assessors was 40%, with a maximum of 223%. CV was lower for protocols with a low number of score levels, which demanded high levels of expertise, and when the assessors had greater expertise on the assessed species. The similarity among protocols with respect to the final scores was higher when the protocols cons...

Societies in Africa are highly dependent on agriculture, an activity traditionally vulnerable to unpredictable changes in climatic conditions. Any increase in temperature caused by climate change, coupled with a decline in rainfall, will have direct and indirect drastic effects on crop production and food security. This will exacerbate existing vulnerabilities of resource-constrained farmers who depend on agriculture for a living. On average, 30–50% of the yield losses in agricultural crops are caused by pests, despite the application of pesticides to control them. Climate, especially temperature, has a strong and direct influence on the development and growth of insect pest populations. A rise in temperature due to climate change may both increase or decrease pest development rates and related crop losses. Hence, an increase in temperature can potentially affect range expansion and outbreaks of many insect pests. Therefore, if adequate integrated pest management (IPM) strategies are not developed and made available to farmers, greater losses in crop yield and quality could ultimately result. The International Potato Center (CIP), based in Lima, Peru, seeks to reduce poverty and achieve food security on a sustained basis in developing countries through scientific research and related activities on potato (Solanum tuberosum L.), sweetpotato (Ipomoea batatas L. Poir.), and other root and tuber crops, and on the improved management of natural resources. In its global pest management research efforts, CIP’s Agroecology/IPM program developed a scientific framework based on advanced pest phenology models and Geographic Information System risk mapping for better understanding of future pest risks on global, regional, and local scales and to use this information for adaptation planning. The collaborative project “Predicting climate change-induced vulnerability of African agricultural systems to major insect pests through advanced insect phenology modeling and decision aid development for adaptation planning” was led by CIP and implemented in collaboration with the International Centre of Insect Physiology and Ecology (icipe) and the International Institute for Tropical Agriculture (IITA). In the project, pest risk assessments under potential future climates were conducted for a number of important insect pests of agricultural and horticultural crops in Africa (i.e., potato, sweetpotato, vegetables, maize, cassava, and fruit). Results of these assessments are presented in the Pest Distribution and Risk Atlas for Africa (Pest Risk Atlas for Africa, for short). The Pest Risk Atlas for Africa introduces the applied pest risk assessment framework and provides detailed information for pest risk analysis, applying the following structure in the discussion of each of the pests presented in chapter 4 and its individual sections (i.e., 4.1–4.4): Synonyms of pest scientific names, taxonomic position, common names, and host plants Detection and identification, morphology, and biology with an emphasis on temperature-dependent development Means of movement and dispersal, economic impact, geographical distribution, and phytosanitary risks Risk mapping under current and future climates: global risk and regional risks for Africa with individual country risk maps Phytosanitary measures and adaptation to risk avoidance at farm level. For each of the pests, detailed information on the developed phenology models and simulated life-table parameters are given in related annexes. Natural enemies play an important role in managing pests and are often used in classical biocontrol programs to manage invasive non-indigenous pests. It is important to better understand how climate change will affect this trophic level and how crop management can build and rely on biocontrol strategies. Hence, as part of the project, phenology models have also been developed for important parasitoids associated with pests to better understand their establishment potential and efficacy in different global and regional agro-ecologies. The obtained results are presented in the following structure: Synonyms of parasitoids scientific names, taxonomic position, and hosts Possible regions of origin and distribution Morphology, biology, and economic impact in pest control Potential establishment, distribution, and efficacy under current and future climates Potential release areas in Africa and risks to non-targets. The Pest Risk Atlas for Africa is currently only made available online and is not published as a printed book. This allows us to update information regularly and to add new sections that cover pest risk assessments for other pests or suitability studies for associated natural enemies not yet considered. All individual pest and biocontrol agent chapters can be directly downloaded for free. Further, all information is accessible interactively to allow flexible use, zoom into maps, and quick searches for specific information. A publication as printed book might…