Inflation Cosmology

Central bank policy interest rate has a role in economic activity such as investment in 5 ASEAN countries. The occurrence of the Asian Financial Crisis (AFC) in 1997-1998 changed the number of investments in the ASEAN-5 countries that were previously the destination of investors from developed countries. The declining level of economic and industrial stability in ASEAN-5 countries has reduced investor interest in investment. However, after AFC, from 2000 to 2019, 5 Southeast Asian countries (Singapore, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Thailand) experienced an increase in investment. This study aims to analyze the effect of Central bank policy interest and macroeconomic variables such as GDP, Exchange Rate, Inflation, and Labor rate on investment in 5 ASEAN countries. The analytical method used in this study is Panel Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) with Pooled Mean Group (PMG) estimation. The results showed that the Central bank policy interest rate, Inflation, and Labor have a positive and significant effect on investment in the long term. Meanwhile, in the short-term, GDP has a positive and insignificant effect on investment.

The execution of this empirical enquiry has benefited from the valuable comments and suggestions of the participants and resource persons at the various workshops organised by the AERC, especially between December 1990 and May 1992. In particular, Benno J. Ndulu's initial reactions to the proposal for this research, together with the technical assistance of Mohsin S. Khan and Christopher S. Adam helped to improve every section of this study and we are happy to acknowledge it here. We are also thankful to Olu D. Ajakaiye, Rasaq A. Olopoenia, Mufutau I. Raheem and Fidelis 0. Ogwumike, for helpful comments and suggestions. However, the views expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent those of the AERC and NISER.

In this paper (part IV), we analyze some equations concerning the Optimal Transport applied to the Classical Isoperimetric Inequality and to the Black Holes mathematics. We obtain various mathematical connections with MRB Constant, the "Ramanujan's Recurring Numbers" and some parameters of String Theory

Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis Pengaruh Dana Pihak Ketiga (DPK), Capital Adequacy Ratio (CAR) dan Non Performing Financing (NPF) terhadap Profitabilitas Bank Umum Syariah (BUS) di Indonesia dengan Pembiayaan sebagai variabel intervening periode 2018-2023.

Penelitian ini menggunakan metode pendekatan kuantitatif. Populasi dalam penelitian ini adalah seluruh Bank Umum Syariah (BUS) yang terdaftar pada periode 2018-2023 dengan jumlah sampel berjumlah 10 bank. Teknik pengumpulan data menggunakan data sekunder yaitu data berupa laporan tahunan bank yang dipublikasikan pada periode 2018-2023. Teknik analisis data yang digunakan adalah analisis jalur (path analysis).

Hasil penelitian ini menunjukkan bahwa (1) Dana Pihak Ketiga (DPK) tidak berpengaruh signifikan terhadap profitabilitas, (2) Capital Adequacy Ratio (CAR) tidak berpengaruh signifikan terhadap profitabilitas, (3) Non Performing Financing (NPF) tidak berpengaruh signifikan terhadap profitabilitas, (4) Dana Pihak Ketiga (DPK) berpengaruh signifikan terhadap pembiayaan, (5) Capital Adequacy Ratio (CAR) tidak berpengaruh signifikan terhadap pembiayaan, (6) Non Performing Financing (NPF) tidak berpengaruh signifikan terhadap pembiayaan, (7) Pembiayaan berpengaruh signifikan terhadap profitabilitas, (8) Pembiayaan tidak memediasi Dana Pihak Ketiga (DPK) terhadap profitabilitas, (9) Pembiayaan tidak memediasi Capital Adequacy Ratio (CAR) terhadap profitabilitas, (10) Pembiayaan tidak memediasi Non Performing Financing (NPF) terhadap profitabilitas.

What should a central bank do when faced with a weak aggregate demand even after reducing the short-term nominal interest rate to zero? To address this question, we solve a central bank's intertemporal lossminimization problem, in which the non-negativity constraint on nominal interest rates is explicitly considered. We find that the optimal path is characterized by policy inertia, in the sense that a zero interest rate policy should be continued for a while even after the natural rate of interest returns to a positive level. By making such a commitment, the central bank is able to achieve higher expected inflation, lower long-term nominal interest rates, and a weaker domestic currency in the adverse periods when the natural rate of interest significantly deviates from a steady-state level.

We study the quarterly bilateral real exchange rate and the relative price of non-traded to traded goods for 1225 country pairs over 1980-2005. We show that the two variables are positively correlated, but that movements in the relative price measure are smaller than those in the real exchange rate. The relation between the two variables is stronger when there is an intense trade relationship between two countries and when the variance of the real exchange rate between them is small. The relation does not change for rich/poor country bilateral pairs or for high inflation/low inflation country pairs. We identify an anomaly: The relation between the real exchange rate and relative price of non-traded goods for US/EU bilateral trade partners is unusually weak.

We have explicitly demonstrated that scalar coupled Gauss-Bonnet gravity in four dimension can have non-trivial effects on the early inflationary stage of our universe. In particular, we have shown that the scalar coupled Gauss-Bonnet term alone is capable of driving the inflationary stages of the universe without incorporating slow roll approximation, while remaining compatible with the current observations. Subsequently, to avoid the instability of the tensor perturbation modes we have introduced a self-interacting potential for the inflaton field and have shown that in this context as well it is possible to have inflationary scenario. Moreover it turns out that presence of the Gauss-Bonnet term is incompatible with the slow roll approximation and hence one must work with the field equations in the most general context. Finally, we have shown that the scalar coupled Gauss-Bonnet term attains smaller and smaller values as the universe exits from inflation. Thus at the end of the inflation the universe makes a smooth transition to Einstein gravity.

The paper presents a version of the exchange-rate-regime model of inflation. Quarterly data from Mexico from 1946 to 1995 are used to estimate and test a simultaneous-equation model for wage inflation, price inflation and industrial production, taking account of the Lucas critique and the statistical properties of the data. The main finding is that, after the fall of the fixed-exchange-rate regime in 1976, there was a Barro-Gordon type inflation bias owing to the inability of policymakers to commit to low inflation. There is no significant evidence of political business cycles in inflation.

The consumer price index (CPI) is a crucial economic indicator of consumer price inflation, which has an attendance effect on the extent of savings and, hence, on investment capacity. The literature contains different opinions on the relationship between exchange rate and consumer price index; however, given the uniqueness of each country's economic environment, it became apposite to focus the bearing of this paper on the South African economic context. Thus, this paper evaluates the effect of currency exchange rates on the consumer price index in South Africa. Time series data on CPI and exchange rates were drawn from the Fusion Media investment database and were analysed using the OLS regression. For the independent variables exchange rate, which is the Rand price against the Dollar, the authors applied lagg-2 given the assumption that exchange rate differences might take up to two months to affect the consumer price index. The authors' assumption draws from the findings of eminent scholars, which indicate that, given sufficient time, changes in domestic prices would fully compensate for exchange rate adjustments. The analysis showed that exchange rate changes significantly and positively affect CPI within the data's boundaries. The findings offer academic and practical implications for understanding the theoretical short-term period effect of the exchange rate on the consumer price index within the South African setting and for practical economic policy application for advanced policies to cushion potential negative effects on savings and investment. The paper provides an agenda for further study of the application of expanded time series to evaluate the effect of currency exchange rates on CPI over a longer period to unravel a theoretical difference between the short-term and long-term implications of exchange rates on CPI.

The position of Indonesia's foreign exchange reserves during the last 5 years had been fluctuated, causing disruption to the Indonesian economy. This study was conducted to determine the effect of exports, imports, and inflation on Indonesia's foreign exchange reserves. This study uses a causal relationship research design with a quantitative approach. The sample of this research is monthly data from Indonesia's foreign exchange reserves, exports, imports, and inflation for the 2016-2020 period. The data used is secondary data in the form of time series obtained from the BI and BPS websites. The analysis tool uses multiple linear regression analysis, with SPSS version 20. The results show that partially exports have a significant positive effect, imports have no effect on Indonesia's foreign exchange reserves, inflation has a significant negative effect on Indonesia's foreign exchange reserves. Simultaneously, exports, imports, and inflation have a significant effect on Indonesia's foreign exchange reserves.

This paper aims to examine the role of financial development and economic growth in Nepal employing Autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach of cointegration using time series data for the period from 1965 to 2018. Nepal is a unique country with big markets in the neighbors-India and China but remains as one of the poor landlocked developing countries, even being the earlier entrant in liberalization and reform. Nepal recently went through a substantial political transition and now the stable government is seeking substantial amount of foreign direct investment. In this background, it will be better, for a good policy analysis, to know how the financial activities have played the role in highly intended economic growth. We develop a model with five proxies of financial development (broad money, domestic credit to private sector, total credit from banking sector, capital formation, and foreign direct investment); and econometrically test their contribution in economic growth. Overall, the results suggest that financial development causes to economic growth substantially, except in the case of foreign direct investment. This result warns the policy makers to be more serious making investment friendly economy to attract the expected foreign direct investment.

ÖZET 1990 l y llar n ba lar ndan itibaren, yeni yap lanma ve ekonomik tercih de i iklikleri ülkeleri enflasyon hedeflemesi uygulamaya yöneltmi tir. Bu çal mada, para politikas n n zaman tutars zl ve güvenilirlik sorunu ile enflasyon hedeflemesinin neden ve sonuçlar tart lm t r. Enflasyon hedeflemesinin; istek, kararl l k ve s k takip gerektiren bir dizi para politikas n n birlikte uygulanmas ve takibi ile istenilen sonucu verebilecek bir politika oldu u son y llardaki uygulamalardan elde edilmi önemli bir sonuç olarak kar m za ç kmaktad r. Dolay s yla enflasyon hedeflemesi uygulamas na yönelik yeni yap lanmalar ve ekonomik tercih de i ikliklerinin ülkeler için faydal bir strateji arac oldu u görülmektedir.

The main thrust of this study was to investigate the effect of monetary policy on demand for money in Nigeria. Three hypotheses were formulated to guide and direct the study. The hypotheses formulated were meant to evaluate the relationship between interest rate and demand for money, inflation rate and demand for money and exchange rate and demand for money. Ex-post facto research design was adopted for the study. Relevant data for the study were collected from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) statistical bulletin. Data collected was analyzed and tested using Ordinary Least Multiple regression statistical technique. Result of the finding revealed that there exist an inverse relationship between interest rate and money demanded, there exist and inverse relationship between expected inflation rate and money demanded and there exist an inverse relation between exchange rate and money demanded in Nigeria. It was recommended that the Nigerian government through the Central Bank should formulated good money policies that will ensure a stable demand for money function thereby encouraging economic growth in the country.

Alternative economic policies have been one of the most popular topics of debate among Russian politicians and economists for nearly 10 years and their logic has remained practically unchanged for the whole of the past decade, when these issues became the subject of open and heated political discussion. The government claims that its policy is the only possible one and accuses its opponents of adventurism, while the opposition strongly attacks this policy and promises a radical change of course should it come to power. This was the case during the final period of the Soviet Union's existence, and subsequent events proved that Ryzhkov's claim that there was no alternative to his economic course was-to put it mildly-greatly exaggerated. Events took a similar course in post-reform Russia as well. True, in the latter there might seem to be more ground for the 'no alternative' claim-the replacement of Gaidar with Chernomyrdin, contrary to expectations, did not bring about a change in course but resulted in the waste of two years (1993-94), during which the government hesitated and waited until the autumn 1994 crisis forced the Prime Minister to choose the path of consistent implementation of Gaidar's 1991-92 ideas. This episode can be seen as a confirmation that alternative economic policies do exist. It also, however, brings up the question of the extent to which alternative courses are possible, of the room for manoeuvre in the event of political victory by those forces (communists and/or nationalists) who are today proclaiming their intentions to radically review the economic and political orientation of the country. When answering this question we should not confine ourselves to political slogans and radical opposition platforms (though they cannot be completely ignored either). We should look at theoretically acceptable and practically feasible alternative economic policies, i.e. alternative policies that take into account the inertia of the economic system, on the one hand, and the presence of real social groups with an interest in this or that course of development, on the other. This article therefore aims at analysing realistic (i.e. those which could in principle be implemented) economic policy alternatives in Russia. We shall also look at the logic of stabilisation measures under different alternatives, and particularly at the problem of inflation, as the focus of economic policy debates to-day.' This is true from both the general economic point of view (the inflation rate is the most important factor in the stability or instability of the economy) and the point of view of the balance of interests of different social groups. Indeed, inflationary processes are no more than processes of redistribution of financial resources among different groups of economic agents. Thus the inflation rate to-day is not only and

The dominent influence of South African goods on the Botswana CPI basket leads to the expectation that South African prices have a significant role in determining prices in Botswana. This paper examines Botswana's price and inflation relationships and their interaction.

The dominant influence of South African goods on the Botswana CPI basket leads to the expectation that South African prices have a significant role in determining prices in Botswana. This paper examines Botswana's price and inflation relationships and their interaction. Cointegration analysis is used to develop a dynamic error correction model that establishes the link between long run equilibrium prices and short run inflation. Results show that the exchange rate (and South African prices) rather than money is cointegrated with prices, supporting theoretical predictions of a dominant long term equilibrium relationship between prices and the exchange rate in a pegged exchange rate regime with capital controls. In the short run both domestic and imported inflationary pressures determine growth in the price level each month. This suggests monetary, exchange rate and fiscal policy can be used to temper inflation in the short run. Changes in the exchange rate and prices will, however, only have short term price competitiveness effects, over time complete adjustment back to the equilibrium real exchange rate occurs. 1 This paper is based upon research funded by the African Economic Research Consortium (AERC), and upon a report presented to the AERC Research Workshop, Nairobi, December 1994. Copies of the full report are available on request from Dr J.K. Atta, University of Botswana, P/Bag 0022, Gaborone, Botswana. The authors are erateful to AERC for financial support, and to various participants at AERCResearch Workshops as well as two anonymous referees of this journal for comments. Any errors remain our responsibility. Any opinions, findings, conclusions or recommendations expressed herein are those of the authors, who write in their personal capacities and not as representatives of any of the organizations with which they are associated. An earlier version of the paper also appeared in the Bank of Botswana Research

Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data. Rob McClelland provided us invaluable assistance and guidance in using BLS data. We thank Jose Mustre Del Rio for excellent research assistance. The views expressed here are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the BLS or the Federal Reserve System. We are grateful to Carlos Carvalho, Jon Steinsson, and numerous seminar participants for helpful comments. The views expressed herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Bureau of Economic Research. NBER working papers are circulated for discussion and comment purposes. They have not been peerreviewed or been subject to the review by the NBER Board of Directors that accompanies official NBER publications.

In this research thesis, concerning the Srinivasa Ramanujan Manuscripts, we have analyzed various formulas, the Rogers-Ramanujan continued fractions, the mock theta functions and some sectors of Cosmology and Theoretical Physics. We have obtained further new possible mathematical connections and developments

This paper analyzed the causal relationship between GDP growth, export and import in Bangladesh using time series data from 19802017. To investigate the relationship ADF test, Johansen long run co integration test, ECM (error correction model) and Granger casualty test has been employed. There existed a long run co integration relationship among the variables. Mostly there is a bilateral causality between import and GDP, which basically is quite significant. Specifically, there are a relatively significant unidirectional causal relationship exports to GDP. Therefore, the export sector will be the top of the potential priority of the nation to improve the country’s GDP.

In this student project, performed at the Pontificia Universidad Catolica de Chile in 2011, a simple Lagrangian is proposed that by the choice of the representation of SU(2), gives rise to field equations for arbitrary spin. In explicit examples it is shown, how the Klein-Gordon, the Dirac, and the Proca equation can be obtained from this Lagrangian. On the same footing, field equations for arbitrary spin are given. Finally, symmetries are discussed, the fields are quantized, their statistics is deduced, Feynman rules are derived, and problems of the formulation are discussed.

This study assesses the empirical determinants of in ation in Burundi over the period from January 2007 to July 2022. A single error correction model is used in which the underlying determinants of the food and non-food components of in ation as well as structural factors are incorporated into the headline in ation equation. The major contribution to the existing literature is the study of the role of the tax sector in modeling in ation, an aspect that has been neglected in existing studies on in ation in Burundi. The empirical results reveal that the long-term sources of headline in ation are determined in the external sector market, where the exchange rate premium, world food and non-food prices determine the domestic prices as well as in the scal sector. In the short term, exchange rate movements, energy price adjustments, imported non-food in ation and changes in money growth as well as public sector borrowing in uence headline in ation where public sector borrowing plays an important role in in ationary pressures. Three conclusions can be drawn from these empirical results: First, the dominant in uence of the exchange rate on headline in ation and its sub-components deserves special attention from the authorities, who must take consistent measures to curb the depreciation excessive BIF against the US dollar. Second, with regard to the pass-through of imported in ation, expanding and diversifying the manufacturing base to limit the current heavy reliance on imports of manufactured goods and capital goods remains a policy priority. Finally, the role of supply shocks, evident in the impact of food prices on in ation, requires immediate and signi cant reforms in the agricultural sector to boost productivity through the use of modern production methods.

Islamic macroeconomics in Indonesia has gained increasing attention as the country strives to integrate Sharia-based principles into its economic policies. This study examines the development, challenges, and prospects of Islamic macroeconomic implementation in Indonesia, focusing on key areas such as monetary policy, fiscal policy, financial stability, and economic growth. Using a qualitative approach, this research analyzes government policies, regulatory frameworks, and the role of Islamic financial institutions in shaping macroeconomic stability. The findings indicate that while Indonesia has made significant progress in adopting Islamic economic principles, challenges remain in harmonizing Sharia compliance with conventional economic systems, enhancing financial inclusivity, and strengthening institutional frameworks. The study suggests that a more comprehensive integration of Islamic macroeconomic policies, supported by strong regulatory frameworks and public awareness, will be crucial for sustainable economic development.

Shariah bank established to stabilize the inflation, whereas it interest may become tool to control inflation. On the other hand, interest could caused high rate inflation. Normally this type of research is conducts in the field of commercial or regular bank, this time the researcher tried to apply it on the shariah bank. The researcher use two common shariah bank in Indonesia; Bank Syariah Mandiri and Bank Muamallat. The reason why the researcher use those two, because they are recognized by most people in Indonesia. This research aim is to test the macro economics impact on the banking sharing system, to test the implication on company characteristics towards banking sharing system, and to test both impact and implication of banking sharing system on macro economics and company characteristics. Quantitative descriptive is used on this research with using survey method and literature reviews in helping on the data collection then its analyzed with SPSS program. The research hyphoth...

A country’s foreign exchange reserves are its foreign currency savings that can be utilized to finance international transactions. The purpose of this study is to determine how macroeconomic indicators (exports, imports, exchange rates, inflation rates, and foreign debt) influence Indonesia’s foreign currency reserves. The researchers used secondary data in the form of monthly time series, as well as quantitative analysis using multiple linear regression. The model that was used was the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). According to the research, future exports and external debt have a positive impact on Indonesia’s foreign exchange reserves. Indonesia’s foreign exchange reserves are negatively impacted by imports and predicted inflation rates, whereas the rupiah exchange rate has no effect. In the model, there is a short-run to long-run equilibrium relationship. The IRF results show that shocks from other independent variables have little effect on foreign exchange reserves and...

 The purpose of this study is to determine the effect of inflation and exchange rate movement against Indonesia balance of trade conditions using time series data from January 2010 to December 2019 that are quantitative or in the form of numerical data.This research includes inflation data, rupiah exchange rate and trade balance sourced from Bank Indonesia (BI) and Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS) using vector error correction model (VECM) to see the long-term and short-term relationship in the trade balance. The results of this study concluded that there is a long-term and short-term relationship in the model through the cointegration test, in the long run inflation has a negative and significant effect on the trade balance, while the exchange rate has a positive and significant effect on the trade balance.

We study the behaviour of inflation in 39 countries for the period 1960-2007, by testing for the presence of fixed persistence, as well as changes in persistence. We use a nonparametric unit root test robust to nonlinearities, error distrib- utions, structural breaks and outliers, all of them typical features of inflation data, and a test for (possibly) multiple changes in persistence, which decom- poses the sample information between adjacent I(0) and I(1) periods. We find that (1) inflation around the world rejects a unit root, (2) in some countries inflation switches from stationary to nonstationary periods (3) drops in the level of inflation and in inflation persistence coincide, (4) these drops occurred during "the Great Moderation" for several countries and during the adoption of inflation targeting for others, (5) for countries with persistence changes, the identified I(1) regimes correspond to a higher level of inflation. We conclude that inflation is characterized...

This paper examines the empirical relationship between financial development and economic growth for high income countries. The study focuses on both indirect finance and direct finance, separately as well as jointly. Applying the methodology of for causality analysis in heterogeneous panel data, two sets of results are reported. First, the evidence regarding the relationship between financial development and economic growth from a contemporaneous non-dynamic fixed effects panel estimation is mixed. Negative and statistically significant estimates of the coefficient of the inflation and financial development interaction variable indicate that financial sector development may even be harmful to economic growth when inflation is rising. Second, in contrast with the recent evidence of , heterogeneous panel causality analysis applied on a refined model indicates that there is no definite evidence that finance spurs economic growth or growth spurs finance. Most of our findings are in line with the view that the importance of financial matters is overstressed. The only exception is the case of activity in stock markets where our result supports the view that finance follows enterprise.

In this research work, a fuzzy inventory model was developed for deteriorating items with time-dependent demand considering the inflation effect. Shortages if any are allowed and partially backlogged with a variable rate dependent on the duration of waiting time up to the arrival of the next lot. The corresponding problem has been formulated as a nonlinearly constrained optimization problem, all the cost parameters are fuzzy valued and solved. Numerical examples have been considered to illustrate the model and the significant features of the results are discussed. Finally, based on these examples, sensitivity analyses have been studied by taking one parameter at a time keeping the other parameters as same.

Calcium is the most abundant mineral in the human body and is needed in large quantities because it has many properties, being better known for nourishing the bones. Objective: To determine and establish the intake of calcium in postmenopausal women with osteoporosis who come to hospitals Vicente Corral and José Carrasco of the city of Cuenca. Methods and Materials: We performed a descriptive study. The sample corresponds to 108 postmenopausal women with osteoporosis who go to hospitals "Vicente Corral and José Carrasco." Be evaluated calcium intake in food consumed daily by each patient by a survey of validated 24-hour recall for 3 days previously determined osteoporosis in postmenopausal women through an axial and femoral densitometry. For the statistical analysis used the software program and SPS FP2 and describe measures of central tendency, mean differences, percentages. Results: 97.32% of postmenopausal women with osteoporosis have a poor calcium intake. The average calcium intake was 530.18 mg / day, lower than that recommended by oms, while 1.79% of the respondents ate normal amounts of calcium and 0.89% of the people have a high intake. The 65.18% belonged to upper middle socioeconomic status and 46.43% had adequate nutritional status. pause women with osteoporosis, with ingestion lower than 1200mg/day of calcium, in patients who used to go to the hospital "Vicente Corral" and "José Carrasco".

From the stabilization of the Brazilian economy that occurred in 1994 until the year 2017, there was a considerable increase in access to private higher education. Inclusive policies, that guaranteed access to higher education, increased the number of students in private undergraduate courses by 339% in the period analyzed. The economic stability achieved by the country since the decade of 1994 guaranteed better living conditions for Brazilians who, with educational stimuli, could rise in the escalation of formal university education. The aim of this article is to empirically verify how the improvement in Brazilian's living conditions is related to access to private higher education. For this, the econometric strategy used was the panel data regression model for the time series of enrollments in higher education in the five major Brazilian regions. The variables that incorporate the living conditions of Brazilians in this study are the real wage, the cost of living, inflation and the unemployment rate. Evidence indicates that, in addition to inclusive policies, real wages and falling living costs were decisive for increasing enrollment in private higher education institutions. It was also revealed that unemployment and inflation in Brazil did not bring about effects that would generate disinterest in the population in attending a university, which was supported by the educational incentives carried out in the country.

The author thanks the seminar participants at the All-Georgia Conference held at the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta for their comments. He is also grateful for the comments and suggestions of Jerry Dwyer and David Spencer. The views expressed here are the author's and not necessarily those of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta or the Federal Reserve System. Any remaining errors are the author's responsibility.

Implementing detrending operations are important steps in data analysis. Sometimes, detrending is applied to remove a component which obscures some relationships of interest. Sometimes, it is used as a preprocessing step to prepare time series for analysis. However, satisfactory results of nonlinear and nonstationary data treatment are lacking, leading to the awkward reality which consider detrending as a complex operation. In this paper, we compare the ability of three detrending methods: wavelets, classical filtering and empirical mode decomposition. Performances of used methods will be tested to extract US core inflation. This indicator represents a prominent economic behavior for policymakers, economists and researchers.

Turkish tourism has developed as more dependent on the international tourism demand until the 2000s. However, it has gained more stable and more balanced structure with the effect of increase in demand of domestic tourism in the early 21st century. In recent years, despite of the global crisis, the growth rate of the domestic and international tourism expenditure is well above the growth rate of the economy in Turkey. In this study, the effect of the global crisis on Turkish tourism demand has been investigated. The study has focused on factors such as "inflation", "currency" and "interest rates", which may affect Turkish tourism during the global financial crisis. In this way, the effects of the crisis on tourism demand are explained more clearly. The results show occurrence of a significant slowdown in the Turkish foreign active tourism during the global crisis. This deceleration was independent of the inflation and exchange rate effect. Furthermore, it was merely caused by the global crisis. Though, the domestic and overseas travels were increased in Turkey despite of the crisis during the period 2008-2013. Decreasing interest rates played a major role in this increase. Thus, the effect of interest rate on tourist spending can be accepted as a strong influential factor. The study has two important aspects. First, the contractionary effects of the global crisis on the tourism demand are to be determined by taking into account the possible effects of economic variables such as currency, inflation, interest rates, etc. Secondly, this study has a visionary approach, which is an evaluation of the global economic crisis as an opportunity. Besides, it also indicated the effect of the specified variables on tourism demand.

We investigate models where structure formation is initiated by scaling seeds: We consider rapidly expanding relativistic shells of energy and show that they can fit current CMB and large scale structure data if they expand with super-luminal velocities. These acausally expanding shells provide a viable alternative to inflation for cosmological structure formation with the same minimal number of parameters to characterize the initial fluctuations. Causally expanding shells alone cannot fit present data. Hybrid models where causal shells and inflation are mixed also provide good fits.

This paper examines the trend and economic determinants of the suicidal deaths in India. Time-series data over the period 1967-2006 is used from various sources. The paper analyzes the suicidal trend and exploratory relationships between suicide rate and some ...

This paper examines the trend and economic determinants of the suicidal deaths in India. Time-series data over the period 1967-2006 is used from various sources. The paper analyzes the suicidal trend and exploratory relationships between suicide rate and some of the demographic and other economic variates. Further, we use ARDL model to find out the association between suicide and some economic variables. We find that inflation, per capita real GDP and industrial growth encourages the incidences of suicides whereas increased per capita household income helps in reducing suicidal deaths in India.

The relative costs per ton-mile for rail boxcar, trailer-on-flatcar (TOFC), irregular-route motor carriers, and exempt owner-operators for the period 1977-1985 are examined. A specific rate of inflation was applied to each category of cost in 1977 for the four types of transportation service to determine the effect of inflation to 1985. The relative average freight costs per unit of output were than compared at truck gross vehicle weight limits of 73,280 and 80,000 lb. The principal finding of the study is that any shift in the average costs per ton-mile resulting from an increase in the truck weight limit is influenced by the impact of inflation on the various cost components. A comparison of the relative costs by type of service and mode suggests that inflation may have a more adverse impact on the railroads than on motor carriers of truckload freight. The analysis also indicates that, over the long term, the position of TOFC relative to truckload motor carriage could deteriorate ...

This work investigates the determinants of health care expenditures, such as drug prescriptions, inpatient care, and outpatient care, of the resident population of the Region of Friuli Venezia Giulia (Italy). The phenomenon of interest is examined here by considering a cross-sectional register-based dataset on individual expenditures exhibiting a cross-classified hierarchical structure. In fact, patients (about 1,000,000) are grouped by general practitioners and municipalities. Does the evidence in individual data analyses support the results of the micro and macroeconomic literature? The adoption of disaggregated data allows us to disentangle the role of the micro and macroeconomic determinants of the expenditures. Moreover, the degree of interdependence between neighbouring municipalities is measured by accounting for the spatial correlation in the error convolution. A feasible two-stage Heckit method has to be adapted to encompass the zero inflation issue, to consider the hierarchical structure of data and to study the spatial di↵usion process of the expenditures in the sample selection model framework. The main results on the determinants of health care expenditures at the macro-level are confirmed in our analysis on disaggregated data. On the contrary, however, the substitution e↵ect, which is typically observed in aggregated data, has not been confirmed by the present research. Moreover, the selection process appears to be relevant in drug prescriptions and outpatient care expenditures Luca Grassetti (orcid.org/0000-0003-1997-8001) and Laura Rizzi (orcid.

Central banks have been pursuing an expansionary monetary policy since before the pandemic, although the health and economic crisis of COVID-19 has boosted asset purchase programmes. After the Great Recession, a new phase began, characterised by low interest rates and liquidity injections. These policies spilled over into financial markets and are leading to higher inflation. These policies stabilised the situation in the short term, but if they continue indefinitely there is a risk of debt overhang, investment mistakes and high inflation in the future. The aim of this article is to analyse monetary policy developments from the Great Recession to the COVID-19 crisis. Correlations between different macroeconomic variables will be shown through IBM SPSS Statistics. For this purpose, bi-variate correlations were used. For the predictions and confidence of the model data, Tableau Desktop Edition was used, which in turn was used for the generation of the graphs. There is a strong correla...

A popular account for the demise of the UK's monetary targeting regime in the 1980s blames the fluctuating predictive relationships between broad money and inflation and real output growth. Yet ex post policy analysis based on heavily-revised data suggests no fluctuations in the predictive content of money. In this paper, we investigate the predictive relationships for inflation and output growth using both real-time and heavily-revised data. We consider a large set of recursively estimated Vector Autoregressive (VAR) and Vector Error Correction models (VECM). These models differ in terms of lag length and the number of cointegrating relationships. We use Bayesian model averaging (BMA) to demonstrate that real-time monetary policymakers faced considerable model uncertainty. The in-sample predictive content of money fluctuated during the 1980s as a result of data revisions in the presence of model uncertainty. This feature is only apparent with real-time data as heavily-revised data obscure these fluctuations. Out of sample predictive evaluations rarely suggest that money matters for either inflation or real output. We conclude that both data revisions and model uncertainty contributed to the demise of the UK's monetary targeting regime.

An output gap measure is suggested based on the Beveridge-Nelson decomposition of output using a vector-autoregressive model that includes data on actual output and on expected output obtained from surveys. The paper explains the advantages of using survey data in business cycle analysis and the gap is provided economic meaning by relating it to the natural level of output defined in Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium models. The measure is applied to quarterly US data over the period 1970q1-2007q4 and the resultant gap estimates are shown to have sensible statistical properties and perform well in explaining inflation in estimates of New Keynesian Phillips curves.