IRT-likelihood Ratio

Performance of likelihood ratio (LR) methods for evidence evaluation has been represented in the past using e.g. Tippett plots. We propose Empirical Cross-Entropy (ECE) Plots as a metric of accuracy based on the statistical theory of proper scoring rules, interpretable as information given by the evidence according to Information Theory, which quantify calibration of LR values. We present results with a case example using a glass database from real casework, comparing performance both with Tippett and ECE plots. We conclude that ECE plots allow clearer comparisons of LR methods than previous metrics, allowing a theoretical criteria to determine if a given method should be used for evidence evaluation or not, which is an improvement over Tippett plots. A set of recommendations for the use of the proposed methodology by practitioners is also given.

que des subventions et mandats obtenus par ses équipes de recherche. CIRANO is a private non-profit organization incorporated under the Québec Companies Act. Its infrastructure and research activities are funded through fees paid by member organizations, an infrastructure grant from the

The author proposes some simple diagnostics for the assessment of the necessity of selected model terms in smoothing spline ANOVA models; the elimination of practically insignificant terms generally enhances the interpretability of the estimates, and sometimes may also have inferential implications. The diagnostics are derived from Kullback-Leibler geometry, and are illustrated in the settings of regression, probability density estimation, and hazard rate estimation. Résumé : The author proposes some simple diagnostics for the assessment of the necessity of selected model terms in smoothing spline ANOVA models; the elimination of practically insignificant terms generally enhances the interpretability of the estimates, and sometimes may also have inferential implications. The diagnostics are derived from Kullback-Leibler geometry, and are illustrated in the settings of regression, probability density estimation, and hazard rate estimation.

We consider the process dY t = u t dt + dW t , where u is a process not necessarily adapted to F Y (the filtration generated by the process Y ) and W is a Brownian motion. We obtain a general representation for the likelihood ratio of the law of the Y process relative to Brownian measure. This representation involves only one basic filter (expectation of u conditional on observed process Y ). This generalizes the result of Kailath and Zakai [Ann. Math. Statist. 42 (1971) [130][131][132][133][134][135][136][137][138][139][140] where it is assumed that the process u is adapted to F Y . In particular, we consider the model in which u is a functional of Y and of a random element X which is independent of the Brownian motion W. For example, X could be a diffusion or a Markov chain. This result can be applied to the estimation of an unknown multidimensional parameter θ appearing in the dynamics of the process u based on continuous observation of Y on the time interval [0, T ]. For a specific hidden diffusion financial model in which u is an unobserved mean-reverting diffusion, we give an explicit form for the likelihood function of θ. For this model we also develop a computationally explicit E-M algorithm for the estimation of θ. In contrast to the likelihood ratio, the algorithm involves evaluation of a number of filtered integrals in addition to the basic filter.

Forensic DNA analysis has made major advancements in the 40 years since Alec Jeffreys' work on DNA fingerprinting was published. As the widely regarded gold standard for evidence in forensic casework, forensic DNA analysis has positively progressed since the use of variable number tandem repeats (VNTRs) and gel electrophoresis for sequencing DNA profiles. As the relatively novel field of forensic genetics continues to advance, it is important to consider how previous facets of the workflow fit into future use of genetic markers, technology, and statistical analysis. DNA can be found in almost every cell in the human body, causing us to unknowingly leave genetic material behind everywhere we go. Drops of blood, hair, saliva, and even flakes of skin each contain DNA that can be used for identification purposes. In forensic science, it is these small traces of genetic material that can be used to link people to crimes. DNA profiling is the technique used to identify individuals based on their sequenced genetic material. Much of the human genome is identical in every person, but there are regions of variation. These regions of variations include genetic markers which will be discussed in this chapter. Specific DNA sequences with known locations on a chromosome, or loci, are known as genetic markers . Each individual's genetic profile, composed of such genetic markers, is unique and has identifiable patterns of inheritance (Butler, 2015). For this reason, genetic markers can be used as an identifier in forensic casework. The following portion of this chapter will focus on

Forensic DNA analysis has made major advancements in the 40 years since Alec Jeffreys' work on DNA fingerprinting was published. As the widely regarded gold standard for evidence in forensic casework, forensic DNA analysis has positively progressed since the use of variable number tandem repeats (VNTRs) and gel electrophoresis for sequencing DNA profiles. As the relatively novel field of forensic genetics continues to advance, it is important to consider how previous facets of the workflow fit into future use of genetic markers, technology, and statistical analysis. DNA can be found in almost every cell in the human body, causing us to unknowingly leave genetic material behind everywhere we go. Drops of blood, hair, saliva, and even flakes of skin each contain DNA that can be used for identification purposes. In forensic science, it is these small traces of genetic material that can be used to link people to crimes. DNA profiling is the technique used to identify individuals based on their sequenced genetic material. Much of the human genome is identical in every person, but there are regions of variation. These regions of variations include genetic markers which will be discussed in this chapter. Specific DNA sequences with known locations on a chromosome, or loci, are known as genetic markers . Each individual's genetic profile, composed of such genetic markers, is unique and has identifiable patterns of inheritance (Butler, 2015). For this reason, genetic markers can be used as an identifier in forensic casework. The following portion of this chapter will focus on

In this thesis, we present two different approaches for the stochastic volatility and stochastic interest rate model with jump and analyze the performance of four alternative models. In the first approach, suggested by Scott, the closed form solution for prices on European call stock options are developed by deriving characteristic functions with the help of martingale methods. Here, we study the asset price process and give in detail the derivation of the European call option price process. The second approach, suggested by Bashki-Cao-Chen, describes the closed form solution of European call option by deriving the partial integro-differential equation. In this one we g ive the derivations of both asset price dynamics and the European call option price process. Finally, in the application part of the thesis, we examine the performance of four alternative models using General Electric Stock Option Data. These models are constructed by using the theoretical results of the second appro...

This paper deals with the Elliptical Wishart and Inverse Elliptical Wishart distributions, which play a major role when handling covariance matrices. Similarly to multivariate elliptical distributions, these form a large family of covariance distributions, encompassing, e.g., the Wishart or t-Wishart ones. Our first major contribution is to derive a stochastic representation for Elliptical Wishart and Inverse Elliptical Wishart matrices. This later enables us to obtain various key statistical properties of Elliptical Wishart and Inverse Elliptical Wishart distributions such as expectations, variances, and Kronecker moments up to any orders. The stochastic representation also allows us to provide an efficient method to generate random matrices from Elliptical Wishart and Inverse Elliptical Wishart distributions. Finally, the practical interest of Elliptical Wishart distributions-in particular the t-Wishart one-is demonstrated through a fitting experiment on real electroencephalographic data. This showcases their effectiveness in accurately modeling real covariance matrices.

The main purpose of the study is to determine resistance pattern of bacterial isolates to selected antibiotics among 88 dyspeptic patients in Iran. Frequency of infection among these patients have been evaluated among dyspeptic patients old (45 boys and 43 girls, aged 5-18 years) from 2016 to 2017.Eighty-eight patients with gastroduodenal disorders were included in the study. Urease test modified Giemsa stain, culture isolation and histopathology of H.pylori isolates were performed as per standard guidelines. H.pylori ATCC 43504 was used as reference strain. Susceptibility of HP isolates to amoxicillin, tetracycline, metronidazole, clarithromycin and levofloxacin was determined using EUCAST break points by E-test method. Antral gastritis caused by H pylori infection (15.91%) with or without extension into the duodenum was prominent endoscopic finding. The study revealed modified Giemsa stain positivity of 13.6%, urease test positivity 23.9%, and culture positivity rate of 18.2%. The...

Landslide is one of the most influential natural disasters that cause losses of life and property on a large scale. To identify the landslide susceptible areas, the layers of data showing different characteristics of the earth must be evaluated together. In the course of evaluating data layers together, the emerging technology of geographical information systems (GIS) allows the collection, processing and analysis of data. The purpose of this study is to produce a landslide susceptibility map of the Satuk village in the Yenice district of the province of Karabuk in the Western Black Sea Region where landslides causing frequent loss of life and property occur frequently. In the area, the slope, lithology, aspect, elevation, distance to river and distance to road parameters were considered as the parameters causing the landslides. All of the parameters were standardized in a common scale using fuzzy membership functions. Then, the contributions of each of these parameters for the landslide occurrence were investigated by frequency ratio, and GIS-based multi-criteria decision analysis, and the weight values of the parameters were calculated. The generated landslide susceptibility map is divided into five classes. Additionally, the landslide inventory map was compared to the obtained landslide susceptibility maps to find out how well the constructed models fit the reality. An overlap of 81.56% was found based on the multi-criteria decision analysis method and an overlap of 89.96% was found based on the frequency ratio method. The results showed that the frequency ratio method provides better results than the multi-criteria decision analysis method considering the data used for the study area. Landslides susceptibility • GIS • Frequency rate method • Multi-criteria decision method • Satuk village * Deniz Arca

HERE -Generalized exponential, geometric extreme exponential and Weibull distributions are three nonnegative skewed distributions that are suitable for analyzing lifetime data. We present diagnostic tools based on the likelihood ratio test (LRT) and the minimum Kolmogorov distance (KD) method to discriminate between these models. Probability of correct selection (PCS) has been calculated for each model and for several combinations of shape parameters and sample sizes using Monte Carlo simulation.

The phenomena of failure is attached with a system or component from its production and as true as its birth. In complex systems, common cause failure is the phenomena of failure due to poor design of the component. Survival signature is contributing in the enhancement of the reliability of systems with complex configuration because it is capable to handle the uncertainties exist in the parameters measuring different types of reliabilities of the components. Survival signature flows in the systems and it becomes the generalization of system signature. System signature deals only with single kind of components used in the system. The Survival signature is preferable because it covers the shorting comings of system signature in the limitation of single type of components. It provides more opportunities to calculate the reliability of various complex systems than system signature. In the present research article, we have used the "Monte Carlo simulation technique" in survival signature to analyze the fuzzy reliability of systems having complexity.

Background We evaluated procalcitonin (PCT) assay in the emergency diagnosis of neonatal bacterial infection, especially in preterm infants, relative to C-reactive protein (CRP) and fibrinogen. Methods One hundred and twenty neonates (32 preterm), of whom 21 were infected, were tested. Results Concentrations of PCT, CRP and fibrinogen in uninfected infants were not affected by gestational age at birth. Concentrations of CRP and PCT increased rapidly during the first 24 h of life, while fibrinogen concentrations increased gradually from birth. All marker concentrations were significantly greater in neonates with bacterial infection. Receiver-operating characteristic analysis showed that optimum cut-off values for fibrinogen, CRP and PCT were 3.0 g/L, 7.5 mg/L and 2.5 µg/L respectively, for the diagnosis of sepsis at birth. Conclusions Determination of PCT is of value in excluding bacterial infection in neonates since it has a negative predictive value of 93%.

Mutation models are important in many areas of genetics including forensics. This letter criticizes the model of the paper 'DNA identification by pedigree likelihood ratio accommodating population substructure and mutations' by . Furthermore, we argue that the paper in some cases misrepresents previously published papers.

This paper considers a panel data regression model with heteroskedastic as well as serially correlated disturbances, and derives a joint LM test for homoskedasticity and no first order serial correlation. The restricted model is the standard random individual error component model. It also derives a conditional LM test for homoskedasticity given serial correlation, as well as, a conditional LM test for no first order serial correlation given heteroskedasticity, all in the context of a random effects panel data model. Monte Carlo results show that these tests along with their likelihood ratio alternatives have good size and power under various forms of heteroskedasticity including exponential and quadratic functional forms.

Objective: Rapid diagnosis of pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB) depends on microscopic examination of sputum smear for acid-fast bacilli (AFB). The direct microscopy examination lacks sensitivity. It needs at least 10,000 AFB/ml of sputum to observe in the smear. The objective of this study was to determine the efficacy of three different short-term bleach digestions and concentration of sputum in the diagnosis of PTB. Methods: A total of 171 sputum samples collected from patients suspected of having pulmonary TB were used. Direct smear was prepared using each sample and then divided into three parts to which equal volume of 5% bleach was added. The first part was kept at room temperature for 45 minutes with intermittent shaking. The second part was allowed to stand at room temperature for 45 minutes for sedimentation, and the third part was kept at room temperature for 45 minutes and then centrifuged at 3000 g for 15 minutes for deposit formation. Smears were prepared and stained with Ziehl-Neelsen method and observed for AFB using Revised National TB Control Programme Guidelines. Results: Out of 171 sputum samples, 45 (26.32%), 48 (28.07%), 49 (28.65%), and 55 (32.16%) of specimens were positive by direct, bleach digested mixed method, bleach digested sedimented method, and centrifugation method, respectively. The background of the bleach digested sputum smears was clear. Short-term bleach digestion of sputum improves the sensitivity of microscopic examination and the number of AFB observed in the smear. Bleach being a disinfectant kills AFB and makes handling of sputum safer.

The Hooke and Jeeves algorithm (HJ) is a pattern search procedure widely used to optimize non-linear functions that are not necessarily continuous or differentiable. The algorithm performs repeatedly two types of search routines; an exploratory search and a pattern search. The HJ algorithm requires deterministic evaluation of the function being optimized. In this paper we consider situations where the objective function is stochastic and can be evaluated only through Monte Carlo simulation. To overcome the problem of expensive use of function evaluations for Monte Carlo simulation, a likelihood ratio performance extrapolation (LRPE) technique is used. We extrapolate the performance measure for different values of the decision parameters while simulating a single sample path from the underlying system. Our modified Hooke and Jeeves algorithm uses a likelihood ratio performance extrapolation for simulation optimization. Computational results are provided to demonstrate the performance of the proposed modified HJ algorithm.

It has come to our attention that an error was made in one calculation in respect of the above paper. As a result the likelihood ratio published is incorrect. The correct likelihood ratios for admissions involving venlafaxine shown in Table (and also in the abstract) is 0.97 (0.81-1.16), not 1.33 (1.13-1.55). This error does not alter the main findings of the manuscript or any of the overall conclusions that we reached.

Given a spatial data set placed on an n × n grid, our goal is to find the rectangular regions within which subsets of the data set exhibit anomalous behavior. We develop algorithms that, given any usersupplied arbitrary likelihood function, conduct a likelihood ratio hypothesis test (LRT) over each rectangular region in the grid, rank all of the rectangles based on the computed LRT statistics, and return the top few most interesting rectangles. To speed this process, we develop methods to prune rectangles without computing their associated LRT statistics.

Given a spatial dataset placed on an n × n grid, our goal is to find the rectangular regions within which subsets of the dataset exhibit anomalous behavior. We develop algorithms that, given any user-supplied arbitrary likelihood function, conduct a likelihood ratio hypothesis test (LRT) over each rectangular region in the grid, rank all of the rectangles based on the computed LRT statistics, and return the top few most interesting rectangles. To speed this process, we develop methods to prune rectangles without computing their associated LRT statistics.

This study investigates the relationship between dirty surplus items on the balance sheet and the cost of debt for Japanese firms. We focus on three dirty surplus items-unrealized gains and losses on available-for-sale securities (SEC), foreign currency translation adjustment (FOC), and land revaluation surplus (LAND). While many previous studies on dirty surplus adopted the value-relevance perspective, we examine the effect of dirty surplus items on the interest rate spread of bonds from the bond market perspective. We use the . Likelihood ratio tests for model selection and non-nested hypotheses. Econometrica, 57, 307-333] test to evaluate the relative explanatory power of the equity ratio with and without dirty surplus items for the interest rate spread on bonds issued. We find evidence that the equity ratio with dirty surplus items is more strongly associated with the debt interest rate than that without dirty surplus items. The results suggest that the total amount of dirty surplus items have statistically significant explanatory power for the interest rate spread. However, some dirty surplus items do not have explanatory powers for the bond interest rate spread. While FOC has relative and incremental explanatory powers and SEC has only incremental explanatory power, LAND has neither relative nor incremental explanatory power for the bond interest rate spread. The results mean that FOC and SEC are useful to Japanese bond investors.

IVIE working papers offer in advance the results of economic research under way in order to encourage a discussion process before sending them to scientific journals for their final publication. * Financial support from projects BEC2000-0167 and BEC2002-03720 by the Spanish Government is acknowledged. Part of this work was carried out while the first author was visiting Nuffield College during the summer 2003. She is indebted to Neil Shephard for financial support and very useful discussions. We are also grateful to

Simultaneous latent fingerprints are clusters of friction ridge impressions deposited concurrently in a crime scene. The analysis of these impressions is a complex task to infer individualization, exclusion or categorize as inconclusive. The problem is further compounded when distinctive features in each latent fingerprint in the cluster are of varying quality or none of the fingerprint has the requisite number of features to reliably arrive at a conclusion. Recently, SWGFAST (Scientific Working Group on Friction Ridge Analysis, Study and Technology) proposed a draft standard for simultaneous impression examination. The approach is manual and requires known reference ten-print for comparing with an unknown simultaneous latent fingerprints. This paper, proposes a semi-automatic approach to process and analyze simultaneous latent fingerprints. The algorithm demonstrates that comparisons can be made from a database of ten-prints for a more comprehensive search. The algorithm is validated experimentally using a database of simultaneous fingerprints by comparing the time taken to arrive at a decision and the recognition accuracy.

Background and methods: To determine the diagnostic values of laboratory tests used in the diagnosis of iron-deficiency anemia, the authors conducted a systematic over. view of the relevant literature. Computerized searches of the MEDLINE database yielded 1,179 potentially relevant citations. Fifty-five studies included the results of laboratory tests and histologic examination of the bone marrow for at least 50% of an identifiable patient group. In these 55 studies, quality was assessed and descriptive information concerning the stadypopttlations, the tests conducted, and the results was extracted, all in duplicate. Results: Serum ferritin rndioimmunoussay was by far the most powerfal tes~ with an area under the receiver operat. ing characteristic curve of 0.95. Test propert~s differed for populations of patients with inflammatory, liver, or neoplastic disease and patients without these conditions. Likelihood ratio lines, which allow precise interpretation of results across the entire range of ferritin concentration values, were constructed for the individual populations. Conclusion: Serum ferritin radioimmunoassay is an extremely powetfal test for the diagnosis of iron-deficien~ anemia and, appropriately interpreted, can be applied to the complete range of patients.

The operational capacity of a duplex RT-PCR method for simultaneous detection of Prune dwarf virus (PDV) and Prunus necrotic ringspot virus (PNRSV) has been established by nine European laboratories. A total of 576 samples from Prunus trees with known sanitary status, corresponding to 32 samples in two repetitions for each laboratory, were analysed. The level of sensitivity achieved by the method was 98.3% for PDV and 90.4% for PNRSV. The specificity was 87.4% for PDV and 94.3% for PNRSV. The unilateral 95% confidence intervals were calculated for all these values. Cohen's Kappa coefficient of repeatability and reproducibility of the technique indicated a strong agreement between data. Likelihood ratios were 7.50 (positive) and 0.02 (negative) for PDV. For PNRSV, the positive likelihood ratio was 15.00 while the negative likelihood ratio was 0.11. In addition, post-test probabilities of infection were calculated to manage the risk associated with the routine use of this method. This allows an accurate test result interpretation to facilitate the integration of this new technique into a certification scheme.

The current paper deals with the relation between language resources and Computer Assisted Language Learning (CALL) systems: language resources are essential in the development of CALL applications, during the development of the system resources ...

Current screening instruments for eating disorders are cumbersome to administer and have not been validated in primary care populations. We compared the performance characteristics of 2 screening tools, the SCOFF clinical prediction guide, and a new set of questions, the Eating disorder Screen for Primary care (ESP), using the Questionnaire for Eating Disorders Diagnosis as the independent standard, in 104 consecutive patients from a primary care practice and 129 university students. Twelve percent of the combined population had an eating disorder. One or no abnormal responses to the ESP ruled out an eating disorder (likelihood ratio [LR] 0.0), whereas 3 or more abnormal responses ruled one in (LR 11). The SCOFF questions were less sensitive than predicted (1 or no abnormal responses, LR 0.25), but were as effective at ruling in an eating disorder (3 or more abnormal responses, LR 11).

A search for new supernova remnants (SNRs) has been conducted using TeV γ-ray data from the H.E.S.S. Galactic plane survey. As an identification criterion, shell morphologies that are characteristic for known resolved TeV SNRs have been used. Three new SNR candidates were identified in the H.E.S.S. data set with this method. Extensive multiwavelength searches for counterparts were conducted. A radio SNR candidate has been identified to be a counterpart to HESS J1534−571. The TeV source is therefore classified as a SNR. For the other two sources, HESS J1614−518 and HESS J1912+101, no identifying counterparts have been found, thus they remain SNR candidates for the time being. TeV-emitting SNRs are key objects in the context of identifying the accelerators of Galactic cosmic rays. The TeV emission of the relativistic particles in the new sources is examined in view of possible leptonic and hadronic emission scenarios, taking the current multiwavelength knowledge into account.

The routine technique for detecting antibodies specific to infectious bursal disease virus is a serological evaluation by enzyme linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) with preparations of whole virions as antigens. To avoid the use of complete virus in the standard technique, in-house VP2 and VP3 based ELISAs were developed. Accordingly, four types of indirect ELISAs viz., a commercial IDEXX-ELISA kit, VP2 and or VP3 antigen based ELISAs and a whole virus ELISA were compared with the virus neutralization test. It was concluded that the sensitivity and specificity at receiver-operating characteristics (ROC) optimized cutoff of four ELISAs viz., IDEXX-ELISA, VP2-ELISA and VP3-ELISA indicated similar performance whereas whole virus antigen based ELISA showed poor performance in comparison to other ELISAs. Similarly the positive and negative likelihood ratio of four ELISAs at an optimized cutoff indicated IDEXX-ELISA to be the best among all the four ELISAs while the performance of rVP3-ELISA and rVP2-ELISA is good as compared to the whole virus ELISA. Finally, the area under the ROC curve (AUC) of four ELISAs which represented a summary statistics of the overall diagnostic performance of the test also indicated that the IDEXX-ELISA, VP3-ELISA and VP2-ELISA had similar and relatively better performance when compared to whole virus antigen-ELISA.

Large speech corpora (LSC) constitute an indispensable resource for conducting research in speech processing and for developing real-life speech applications. In 2004 the Spoken Dutch Corpus (CGN) became available, a corpus of standard Dutch as spoken by adult natives in the Netherlands and Flanders. Owing to budget constraints, CGN does not include speech of children, non-natives, elderly people and recordings of speech produced in human-machine interactions. Since such recordings would be extremely useful for conducting research and for developing HLT applications for these specific groups of speakers of Dutch, a new project, JASMIN-CGN, was started which aims at extending CGN in different ways: by collecting a corpus of contemporary Dutch as spoken by children of different age groups, non-natives with different mother tongues and elderly people in the Netherlands and Flanders and, in addition, by collecting speech material in a communication setting that was not envisaged in CGN: human-machine interaction. We expect that the knowledge gathered from these data can be generalized to developing appropriate systems also for other speaker groups (i.e. adult natives). One third of the data will be collected in Flanders and two thirds in the Netherlands.

View of the Cassegrain focus of VISTA housing the VIRCAM camera. VIRCAM consists of 16 2048 square Raytheon VIRGO HgCdTe 0.84-2.5 μm detectors covering a field of 45 × 45 arcminutes (with inter-detector gaps). This image shows Paranal engineer Gerhard Hüdepohl checking VIRCAM.

We present preliminary source counts at 6.7 and 15 mm from the preliminary analysis of the European Large Area ISO Survey, with limiting flux densities of ,2 mJy at 15 mm and ,1 mJy at 6.7 mm. We separate the stellar contribution from the extragalactic using identifications with automated plate measurement sources made with the likelihood ratio technique. We quantify the completeness and reliability of our source extraction using (a) repeated observations over small areas, (b) cross-identifications with stars of known spectral type, (c) detections of the point spread function wings around bright sources and (d) comparison with independent algorithms. Flux calibration at 15 mm was performed using stellar identifications; the calibration does not agree with the pre-flight estimates, probably due to effects of detector hysteresis and photometric aperture correction. The 6.7-mm extragalactic counts are broadly reproduced in the Pearson & Rowan-Robinson model, but the Franceschini et al. model underpredicts the observed source density by ,0.5±1 dex, although the photometry at 6.7 mm is still preliminary. At 15 mm the extragalactic counts are in excellent agreement with the predictions of the Pearson & Rowan-Robinson, Franceschini et al., Guiderdoni et al. models and the evolving models of Xu et al., over seven orders of magnitude in 15-mm flux density. The counts agree with other estimates from the ISOCAM instrument at overlapping flux densities, provided a consistent flux calibration is used. Luminosity evolution at a rate of 1 1 z 3 Y incorporating mid-infrared spectral features, provides a better fit to the 15-mm differential counts than 1 1 z 4 density evolution. Noevolution models are excluded, implying that below around 10 mJy at 15 mm the source counts become dominated by an evolving cosmological population of dust-shrouded starbursts and/or active galaxies.

Background We aimed to compare the clinical judgments of a reference panel of emergency medicine academic physicians against evidence-based likelihood ratios (LRs) regarding the diagnostic value of selected clinical and paraclinical findings in the context of a script concordance test (SCT). Findings A SCT with six scenarios and five questions per scenario was developed. Subsequently, 15 emergency medicine attending physicians (reference panel) took the test and their judgments regarding the diagnostic value of those findings for given diseases were recorded. The LRs of the same findings for the same diseases were extracted from a series of published systematic reviews. Then, the reference panel judgments were compared to evidence-based LRs. To investigate the test-retest reliability, five participants took the test one month later, and the correlation of their first and second judgments were quantified using Spearman rank-order coefficient. In 22 out of 30 (73.3%) findings, the exp...

According to current guidelines all patients with diabetes mellitus should undergo a complete examination of the foot at least once a year [1,2]. For patients older than 50 years, screening for peripheral arterial disease should be carried out by means of case history for claudication and measurement of the ankle-brachial index [3]. Measurement of the ankle-brachial index requires a continuous-wave Doppler machine, ultrasonic gel, and a sphygmomanometer with a blood-pressure cuff [4]. Despite the apparent simplicity of this method, the procedure is time consuming, requires technical skills and a dedicated device [5]. These are reasons that may explain why peripheral arterial disease remains largely underdiagnosed in general practice [6].

To assess the performance of vital status determination by record linkage between a hospital database and the French national mortality database with anonymised data in order to adhere to French legislation. Hospital database of the Institut Gustave Roussy (IGR), the largest cancer centre in France, and the French mortality databases from 1998-2004 were used for this record linkage. A phonetic code adapted to French language was first applied to identifiers. The last name, maiden name, all first names and the date of birth were then each rendered anonymous using irreversible hash coding. Record linkage, using the probabilistic method developed by Jaro, was based on four fields: the last name, first given name, date of birth and code of birth place. Other variables were used for further automatic and manual validation. Linkage results were very satisfactory for the 10,089 patients included: sensitivity was 94.8% and specificity 99.5%. The positive and negative likelihood ratios were respectively 190 and 0.05. The main causes of discordances were erroneous or incomplete information such as unrecorded maiden name in the hospital database. Results were improved by adding manual validation to electronic matching: sensitivity rose to 97.2% and specificity to 99.4%. Record linkage using anonymised data applied to large scale hospital data is possible and has good validity. This method offers new prospects for large prognostic studies based on hospital data provided that the diagnosis date is systematically recorded in the hospital database.

The aims of this study were to determine the diagnostic accuracy and reproducibility of the laser fluorescence device (LF), and the relationship between laser fluorescence readings taken at the entrance of the fissure, ICDAS visual examination caries detection system and the histological depth of the lesion. Two hundred and forty teeth (122 human third molars and 118 bicuspids) were selected from 62 patients enrolled in the study. Visual and LF examinations (Diagnodent, Kavo, Biberach, Germany) of the occlusal surfaces were performed in vivo. After tooth extraction, histological sections were evaluated by stereomicroscopy in vitro. Statistical analysis was performed using multiple statistical methods (SPSS ver. 17). Intra-examiner reproducibility for the LF measurements was excellent: intra-class-correlation coefficient (ICC) for LF was 0.957. Kappa values for each examiner's reproducibility were 0.74-0.82. The diagnostic performance of the LF device gave a good overall diagnost...

The genetic relatedness between pairs of trees was analyzed in an adult stand of maritime pine with abundant advanced natural regeneration using three highly polymorphic microsatellites (EP > 90%). Only five possible self-pollinated offspring were found, thus meaning a maximum selfing rate based on dispersed progeny of 3.8%. Likelihood ratios were used to detect sib relationships in both mature trees and natural regeneration. The percentage of half-sib and full-sib links in the adult trees was 19.09% and 1.82%, respectively, thus indicating a low level of genetic relatedness due to sib relationships (» 3%). Similar results were obtained for the natural regeneration but with a higher percentage of full-sibs (2.37%) and a greater family size. A high amount of pollen gene flow from outside the plot is suggested to explain the low genetic relatedness found. Collection of seedlots in this stand seems adequate as a low level of inbreeding is expected. mating system / genetic relatedness / microsatellites / Pinus pinaster / Mediterranean region Résumé -Étude de l'autofécondation et apparentements dans un peuplement de pin maritime, constitué de deux cohortes, à l'aide de marqueurs microsatellites. L'apparentement génétique entre paires d'arbres a été analysé dans une parcelle de pins maritimes adultes dotée d'une régénération naturelle abondante et avancée, en utilisant trois marqueurs microsatellites très polymorphes (probabilités d'exclusion > 90 %). Seuls cinq descendants issus d'autofécondations probables ont pu être détectés, indiquant un taux maximum d'autofécondation de 3,8 %. Des rapports de vraisemblance ont été utilisés pour détecter les relations d'apparentement chez les arbres adultes et dans la régénération naturelle. Les pourcentages de demi-et de pleins-frères observés parmi les arbres adultes ont été estimés à 19,09 et 1,82 % respectivement, indiquant ainsi un faible taux d'apparentement génétique dû aux fratries (» 3 %). Des résultats similaires ont été obtenus pour la régénération naturelle, mais avec un pourcentage de pleins-frères plus élevé (2,37 %) et des tailles de familles supérieures. Un flux de pollen élevé provenant de l'extérieur de la parcelle doit pouvoir expliquer le faible apparentement observé. La récolte de lots de graines dans cette parcelle semble adéquate puisqu'un faible taux d'autofécondation y est attendu. système de reproduction / apparentement génétique / microsatellites / Pinus pinaster / région méditerranéenne

The genetic relatedness between pairs of trees was analyzed in an adult stand of maritime pine with abundant advanced natural regeneration using three highly polymorphic microsatellites (EP > 90%). Only five possible self-pollinated offspring were found, thus meaning a maximum selfing rate based on dispersed progeny of 3.8%. Likelihood ratios were used to detect sib relationships in both mature trees and natural regeneration. The percentage of half-sib and full-sib links in the adult trees was 19.09% and 1.82%, respectively, thus indicating a low level of genetic relatedness due to sib relationships (» 3%). Similar results were obtained for the natural regeneration but with a higher percentage of full-sibs (2.37%) and a greater family size. A high amount of pollen gene flow from outside the plot is suggested to explain the low genetic relatedness found. Collection of seedlots in this stand seems adequate as a low level of inbreeding is expected. mating system / genetic relatedness / microsatellites / Pinus pinaster / Mediterranean region Résumé -Étude de l'autofécondation et apparentements dans un peuplement de pin maritime, constitué de deux cohortes, à l'aide de marqueurs microsatellites. L'apparentement génétique entre paires d'arbres a été analysé dans une parcelle de pins maritimes adultes dotée d'une régénération naturelle abondante et avancée, en utilisant trois marqueurs microsatellites très polymorphes (probabilités d'exclusion > 90 %). Seuls cinq descendants issus d'autofécondations probables ont pu être détectés, indiquant un taux maximum d'autofécondation de 3,8 %. Des rapports de vraisemblance ont été utilisés pour détecter les relations d'apparentement chez les arbres adultes et dans la régénération naturelle. Les pourcentages de demi-et de pleins-frères observés parmi les arbres adultes ont été estimés à 19,09 et 1,82 % respectivement, indiquant ainsi un faible taux d'apparentement génétique dû aux fratries (» 3 %). Des résultats similaires ont été obtenus pour la régénération naturelle, mais avec un pourcentage de pleins-frères plus élevé (2,37 %) et des tailles de familles supérieures. Un flux de pollen élevé provenant de l'extérieur de la parcelle doit pouvoir expliquer le faible apparentement observé. La récolte de lots de graines dans cette parcelle semble adéquate puisqu'un faible taux d'autofécondation y est attendu. système de reproduction / apparentement génétique / microsatellites / Pinus pinaster / région méditerranéenne

Background: Fitness traits include measures of reproductive efficiency of sheep. The improvement in reproductive efficiency has
significant impact on overall economy of sheep.
Methods: Data spanning over 21 years (1997-2017) were collected from two sheep breeding farm and analyzed with mixed model
least-squares maximum likelihood (LSMLMW) computer (PC-2) programme designed by Harvey (1990) to estimate number of lambs
born per ewe (NLBE), number of lambs weaned per ewe (NLWE), litter size (LS) and sex ratio (SR) of Kashmir Merino sheep.
Result: Overall estimates of 3.56±0.11, 3.20±0.10, 48.32±0.04 and 1.06±0.01 for number of lambs born per ewe (NLBE), number of
lambs weaned per ewe (NLWE), litter size (LS) and sex ratio (SR), respectively were observed in the present study. The period of
birth had significant (p<0.05) effect on NLBE and NLEE. The effect of sire was highly significant on all the traits under study whereas
effect of all the non-genetic factors considered had non-significant effect on LS and SR.

Background: Physical activity may be an effective way of preventing or attenuating menopause-related symptoms, and it has been shown to improve quality of life in menopausal women. However, there have been some inconsistencies regarding between exercise and menopausal symptoms, and study investigating this association has been scarce in Korea. In this study, the association between physical activity and menopausal symptoms in perimenopausal women in Korea was assessed. Methods: This cross-sectional observational study was conducted between November 2012 and March 2013. In total, 2,204 healthy women aged 44-56 years were recruited from a healthcare center at the Kangbuk Samsung hospitals for investigating women's attitudes towards menopause. To investigate the influence of physical activity on perimenopause-associated symptoms, 631 perimenopausal women were selected for this study. Their physical activity levels were assessed using the International Physical Activity Questionnaire (IPAQ) short form. The Menopause-specific Quality of Life (MENQOL) questionnaire was used to assess menopause-related symptoms. Results: The study participants were, on average, 48.5 ± 2.7 years old and had a mean body mass index of 22.8 ± 3.1 kg/m 2 . The total MENQOL score and the psychosocial and physical subscores exhibited U-shaped trends in relation to the level of physical activity. Multiple linear regression analysis adjusted for confounding variables showed that perimenopausal women who performed moderate physical activity reported significantly lower psychosocial (β = -0.413, P = 0.012) and physical symptoms (β = -0.445, P = 0.002) than women who performed low physical activity. By contrast, a high level of physical activity did not influence the MENQOL total score and subscores relative to the low activity group. In addition, no associations were observed between physical activity and the vasomotor and sexual symptoms in any group. Conclusions: Moderate level of physical activity was associated with reduced psychosocial and physical menopause symptoms in perimenopausal Korean women. Although these findings must be confirmed by prospective longitudinal studies, they suggest that physical activity may improve the symptoms of menopause, thereby increasing quality of life.

We aimed to investigate the role of hypoxia-ischemia in the pathophysiology of early NEC/NEC like disease (ENEC) and classic NEC/NEC like disease (CNEC) in preterm infants. In this pilot study, preterm infants who developed the clinical symptoms and signs of NEC/NEC like disease were divided into two groups as early (≤ 7 days, ENEC) or late (> 7 days, CNEC) groups. Beside clinical variables, serum L-lactate, endothelin-1 (ET-1), platelet activating factor (PAF), and intestinal fatty acid binding protein (I-FABP) levels were measured from umbilical/peripheric venous blood in the first hour of life and during the clinical presentation in all groups. A total of 86 preterm infants were enrolled in the study. In the ENEC group, the incidences of fetal umbilical artery Doppler velocimetry abnormalities, IUGR, and delayed passage of first meconium were higher. In addition, mean levels of L-lactate, ET-1, PAF, and I-FABP were higher in the first hour of life. Conclusion: Our study firstly showed that the dominant pathophysiological factor of ENEC is prenatal hypoxic-ischemic event where intestinal injury and inflammation begin in-utero and become clinically apparent in the first week of life. Therefore, we propose a new term "Hypoxic-Ischemic Enterocolitis (HIEnt)" for the definition of ENEC in preterm infants with prenatal hemodynamic disturbances and IUGR. This new sight can provide individualized preventive and therapeutic strategies for preterm infants. What is Known: • The pathophysiology of early necrotizing enterocolitis (NEC) or NEC-like disease which is seen in the first week of life seems different than classic necrotizing enterocolitis (CNEC) which is always seen after the first week of life. What is New: • This study suggests that perinatal hypoxic-ischemic process with inflammation is the point of origin of fetal intestinal injury leading to ENEC. • We propose a new term "Hypoxic-Ischemic Enterocolitis (HIEnt)" for the definition and differentiation of this unique clinical entity.

To determine the ranges of pre-test probability (PTP) of coronary artery disease (CAD) in which stress electrocardiogram (ECG), stress echocardiography, coronary computed tomography angiography (CCTA), single-photon emission computed tomography (SPECT), positron emission tomography (PET), and cardiac magnetic resonance (CMR) can reclassify patients into a post-test probability that defines (&gt;85%) or excludes (&lt;15%) anatomically (defined by visual evaluation of invasive coronary angiography [ICA]) and functionally (defined by a fractional flow reserve [FFR] ≤0.8) significant CAD. A broad search in electronic databases until August 2017 was performed. Studies on the aforementioned techniques in &gt;100 patients with stable CAD that utilized either ICA or ICA with FFR measurement as reference, were included. Study-level data was pooled using a hierarchical bivariate random-effects model and likelihood ratios were obtained for each technique. The PTP ranges for each technique to r...

This study aimed to analyze the impact of the amount of data on the discriminatory performance of acoustic-phonetic parameters, some of which are frequently assessed in forensic speaker comparisons. Parameters from three distinct phonetic domains were considered, namely, spectral, melodic, and temporal, which were assessed separately within the same phonetic domain and in combination. The speech material consisted of spontaneous telephone conversations between two subjects. During the recording sessions, the participants were placed in different rooms, not directly seeing, hearing, or interacting with each other. The speakers were encouraged to start a conversation using a mobile phone while being simultaneously recorded. All recordings were carried out with a high resolution (44.1 kHz and 16-bit). Data segmentation and transcription were performed in the Praat software [1]. The participants were 20 male subjects, Brazilian Portuguese speakers from the same dialectal area. Their age ranged from 19 to 35 years, with a mean of 26.4 years. Although the subjects (10 identical twin pairs) were recruited from a twin research project, cf. [2, 3, 4], the focus here was comparisons among all speakers (i.e., 190 inter-speaker comparisons) rather than on individual twin pairs. Two metrics of discriminatory performance were examined through the R software [5] as a function of the comparisons among all speakers in the study using the script fvclrr [6]: Log-likelihoodratio-cost (Cllr) and Equal Error Rate (EER) values. The Cllr metric is an empirical estimate of the precision of likelihood ratios. The EER metric captures the point where the false reject rate (type I error) and false accept rate (type II error) are equal and is used to describe the overall accuracy of a system. Lower Cllr and EER values are compatible with better discriminatory performance, whereas higher values suggest the opposite trend. A cross-validation procedure was adopted for the calculation of likelihood ratios, where multiple pairwise comparisons were performed across individuals in which the background sample consisted of data from all speakers, except those being directly compared. To assess the impact of the amount of data on discriminatory performance, a very straightforward approach was adopted. Based on a larger data set extracted from recordings of about 2.50 min per speaker, random data points were additively selected for the analyses. The minimum number of data points, i.e., acoustic measurements, selected per speaker was set at 2 to allow the minimum comparison of intra-speaker variability. Thereafter, more randomly selected data points were progressively added to the tests, two points at a time, and new Cllr and EER values were computed for the new resampled data set. For the present study, the maximum number of data points (acoustic measurements) was set at 30. Given the nature of the speech material assessed, a discrepancy in the number of samples produced per subject was observed. Because of that, a random downsampling procedure was repeated 200 times to minimize the selection bias using the R package Recipes [7]. Cllr and EER median values were reported after performing tests with the randomly selected data while performing a fusion and calibration of different estimates based on a logistic regression technique, cf. [8]. Melodic and temporal parameters were extracted from speech chunks with an average (mean and median) temporal window of 3 s, corresponding to inter-pause intervals in most cases. Spectral parameters were extracted from the midpoints of /a/ vowels in stressed and unstressed positions. The monophthongs displayed a mean and a median duration of 67 ms and 84 ms, respectively. After a manual segmentation, all parameters were extracted automatically using a Praat script [9]. Four models were compared. Model 1 (M1) comprises the combination of melodic parameters (f0 median and f0 base value). Model 2 (M2) comprises the combination of temporal parameters (speech rate and articulation rate). Model 3 (M3) consists of the combination of spectral parameters (F3 and F4). Model 4 (M4) considered the combination of all the acoustic-phonetic parameters.

This pilot study set out to assess the speaker discriminatory power asymmetry regarding parameters from different phonetic dimensions in spontaneous speech, i.e., spectral, melodic, and temporal. The speech material consisted of spontaneous telephone conversations between siblings. The participants were 20 male subjects, Brazilian Portuguese speakers from the same dialectal area. Six acoustic-phonetic parameters were chosen for the comparison: f0 median, f0 baseline, speech rate, articulation rate, F3, and F4. Overall, acoustic parameters pertaining to the speech tempo category depicted the worse performance in terms of speaker discriminatory power when assessed in isolation. Such a trend was indicated by the relatively higher median and mean Cllr and EER values. Moreover, from the set of parameters assessed, high formant frequencies, i.e., F3 and F4, were the bestperforming estimates in terms of discriminability depicting the lowest EER and Cllr values. The results suggested a speaker discriminatory power asymmetry concerning different acoustic-phonetic parameters, in which speech tempo estimates presented a lower discriminatory power when compared to melodic and spectral parameters. The findings also suggest that data sampling is crucial for the reliability of Cllr and EER calculations.

This study aimed to assess what we refer to as the speaker discriminatory power asymmetry and its forensic implications in comparisons performed in different speaking styles: spontaneous dialogues vs. interviews. We also addressed the impact of data sampling on the speaker's discriminatory performance concerning different acoustic-phonetic estimates. The participants were 20 male speakers, Brazilian Portuguese speakers from the same dialectal area. The speech material consisted of spontaneous telephone conversations between familiar individuals, and interviews conducted between each individual participant and the researcher. Nine acoustic-phonetic parameters were chosen for the comparisons, spanning from temporal and melodic to spectral acoustic-phonetic estimates. Ultimately, an analysis based on the combination of different parameters was also conducted. Two speaker discriminatory metrics were examined: Cost Log-likelihood-ratio (Cllr) and Equal Error Rate (EER) values. A general speaker discriminatory trend was suggested when assessing the parameters individually. Parameters pertaining to the temporal acoustic-phonetic class depicted the weakest performance in terms of speaker contrasting power as evidenced by the relatively higher Cllr and EER values. Moreover, from the set of acoustic parameters assessed, spectral parameters, mainly high formant frequencies, i.e., F3 and F4, were the best performing in terms of speaker discrimination, depicting the lowest EER and Cllr scores. The results appear to suggest a speaker discriminatory power asymmetry concerning parameters from different acoustic-phonetic classes, in which temporal parameters tended to present a lower discriminatory power. The speaking style mismatch also seemed to considerably impact the speaker comparison task, by undermining the overall discriminatory performance. A statistical model based on the combination of different acoustic-phonetic estimates was found to perform best in this case. Finally, data sampling has proven to be of crucial relevance for the reliability of discriminatory power assessment.

The purpose of this study was to explore the speaker-discriminatory potential of vowel formant mean frequencies in comparisons of identical twin pairs and non-genetically related speakers. The influences of lexical stress and the vowels' acoustic distances on the discriminatory patterns of formant frequencies were also assessed. Acoustic extraction and analysis of the first four speech formants F1-F4 were carried out using spontaneous speech materials. The recordings comprise telephone conversations between identical twin pairs while being directly recorded through high-quality microphones. The subjects were 20 male adult speakers of Brazilian Portuguese (BP), aged between 19 and 35. As for comparisons, stressed and unstressed oral vowels of BP were segmented and transcribed manually in the Praat software. F1-F4 formant estimates were automatically extracted from the middle points of each labeled vowel. Formant values were represented in both Hertz and Bark. Comparisons within identical twin pairs using the Bark scale were performed to verify whether the measured differences would be potentially significant when following a psychoacoustic criterion. The results revealed consistent patterns regarding the comparison of lowfrequency and high-frequency formants in twin pairs and non-genetically related speakers, with high-frequency formants displaying a greater speaker-discriminatory power compared to low-frequency formants. Among all formants, F4 seemed to display the highest discriminatory potential within identical twin pairs, followed by F3. As for non-genetically related speakers, both F3 and F4 displayed a similar high discriminatory potential. Regarding vowel quality, the central vowel /a/ was found to be the most speaker-discriminatory segment, followed by front vowels. Moreover, stressed vowels displayed a higher inter-speaker discrimination than unstressed vowels in both groups; however, the combination of stressed and unstressed vowels was found even more explanatory in terms of the observed differences. Although identical twins displayed a higher phonetic similarity, they were not found phonetically identical.