Hydropolitics and Security

ABSTRACT  Aside from the issues peace and stability, one of Afghanistan’s most vital needs is safe and reliable supplies of water. But Afghanistan faces certain economic, political, institutional problems to develop water resources potential. These problems will increase as the years go by. Afghanistan is one of the world’s poorest countries, with an economy largely based on subsistence agriculture. Afghan farmers depend on reliable, year-round sources of surface water and groundwater. Seasonal flows of streams and rivers fed by melting snowpack high in Afghanistan’s mountains recharge alluvial aquifers located in populated valleys and provide city dwellers with drinking water. The current population of Afghanistan is about 31 million and it is projected to  increase by nearly 80 percent by the year 2050 to approximately 56 million. This will raise demand on the country’s already economic stressed water resources. Almost all of the river basins are transboundary in the country. The Country due to the political unrest has not participated in many of the agreements regulating water resources in Central Asia. its current “non-player” and  "outsider" status of the Central Asian Hydropolitics  has to be changed when starting water resources development. This could create an international dispute  in future regional water sharing discussions. In addition, recent research suggests that global climate change could alter precipitation patterns in Afghanistan. In particular, both the amount and the timing of snowfall received at higher elevations could change, impacting the major source of water for many areas in Afghanistan. Development of Afghanistan’s  most transboundary water resources is a vital need for its own national interest, but it is also directly related with a transboundary water management dispute issue in the region. In other words, Afghanistan should find the best way to develop  its  transboundary water resources for national development  as well as peace and stability of    the region. But this development won't be so easy if current amount of  water  use of  riparian states will be same when Afghanistan plans to release smaller amount of water.

The ―Arab Spring‖—a wave of pro-democracy demonstrations that began in Tunisia in late 2010 and swept across Libya and Egypt—finally reached Syria in early March 2011. The unrest resulted from a combination of socio-economic and political problems that had been building for years and that affect especially Syria‘s large rural population. One of the things that preceded the failure of the nation-state of Syria and the rise of ISIS have been considered the effect of climate change and the mega-drought that affected that region. However, four years after the conflict began, it has degenerated into a civil war with more than 200,000 deaths and about 4 million registered refugees. And it has put Syria at the center of nasty geopolitical struggles. In most evaluations of the Syrian civil war an future, the most neglected analysis is: How water resources will affect the ongoing civil war and how changing situation will affect hydropolitics relations between countries after the war. A far m...

SUMMARY

Turkey has stopped filling the Ilisu dam on the Tigris River to help Iraq overcome water shortages, but it will resume filling the dam on July Turkey stated that once the filling starts again, water will still flow into Iraq in accordance with agreements between the two countries. Turkey had previously delayed the date to start filling the dam from March until June on Iraq's request. The Ilisu Dam is located on Tigris river and it is about 45 km from the Syrian-Turkish border. It will be the largest hydroelectric power plant in the Southeastern Anatolia Project (GAP) with a hydropower capacity of 1,200 MW, producing an expected 3,800 GWh/yr. With a planned height of 135 m, the dam will have a 10.4 BCM reservoir. The controversial Ilisu Dam Project has raised concerns among a wide range of stakeholders including the main Tigris riparians, local residents and international nongovernmental organizationsInternational consortium of export credit agencies were heavily criticized by several environmental and human rights groups to stop financial support to the Ilısu Dam.

SUMMARY When one loook at last situation of the Syrian map, it can be seen that the Islamic State is squeezed out of its strongholds in Mosul and Raqqa and witnesses a steady decline in the influx of foreign fighters. As of 2017 July IS has lost 60% of territory, 80% of revenue This brings any other important question: what is next for ISIS? Will it continue to retain control of several urban centers in the region—or will it disband and devote its complete attention to external operations and attacking Europe and the West? Balanche clearly pointied out very curucial issue in his article (2) while it has been out of mind during this chaotic civil war situation.After six year civil war,regardless of who controls the Euphrates Valley agricultural zone next, they will need to address the legacy of failed regime irrigation policies that are once again creating tension among local tribes

Aside from the issues peace and stability, one of Afghanistan’s most vital needs is safe and reliable supplies of water. But Afghanistan faces certain economic, political, institutional problems to develop water resources potential. These problems will increase as the years go by. Afghanistan is one of the world’s poorest countries, with an economy largely based on subsistence agriculture. Afghan farmers depend on reliable, year-round sources of surface water and groundwater. Seasonal flows of streams and rivers fed by melting snowpack high in Afghanistan’s mountains recharge alluvial aquifers located in populated valleys and provide city dwellers with drinking water. The current population of Afghanistan is about 31 million and it is projected to increase by nearly 80 percent by the year 2050 to approximately 56 million. This will raise demand on the country’s already economic stressed water resources. Almost all of the river basins are transboundary in the country. The Country due...

Aside from the issues peace and stability, one of Afghanistan’s most vital needs is safe and reliable supplies of water. But Afghanistan faces certain economic, political, institutional problems to develop water resources potential. These problems will increase as the years go by. Afghanistan is one of the world’s poorest countries, with an economy largely based on subsistence agriculture. Afghan farmers depend on reliable, year-round sources of surface water and groundwater. Seasonal flows of streams and rivers fed by melting snowpack high in Afghanistan’s mountains recharge alluvial aquifers located in populated valleys and provide city dwellers with drinking water. The current population of Afghanistan is about 31 million and it is projected to increase by nearly 80 percent by the year 2050 to approximately 56 million. This will raise demand on the country’s already economic stressed water resources. Almost all of the river basins are transboundary in the country. The Country due...

Dünya üzerinde bulunan 200’den fazla nehir iki veya daha fazla ülke tarafından kullanılmaktadır. Bu bakımdan Afrika kıtası hem sınır aşan suların sayısı bakımından hem de bu suların paylaşımı konusundaki anlaşmazlıklar nedeniyle başı çekmektedir. Kıta özelinde bu durumun başlıca sebepleri arasında kolonyalizm sürecinde kıtanın doğal sınırlarının ortadan kaldırılması, sınırların sömürgeci ülkelerin siyasi ve ekonomik çıkarlar doğrultusunda oluşturulması gelmektedir. Bununla birlikte daha da önemli bir nedeni Avrupalı kolonyal güçlerin kendi çıkarlarını gözeterek sistematize ettiği emperyal su politikalarıdır. Nil Nehri üzerindeki günümüzdeki Mısır, Sudan ve Etiyopya arasındaki anlaşmazlık bu bakımdan önemli bir örnek teşkil etmektedir.

Günümüzde Afrika kıtasında belli başlı büyük problemlerin arka planında kolonyalizmin bıraktığı mirası gözlemlemek mümkündür. Nil Nehri Havzası’nda su temelli problemlerin gerek tarihi süreç içerisinde gerekse günümüzdeki yansıması da kolonyalizm ile doğrudan bağlantılıdır. Britanya’nın Nil Nehri’nde araçtan amaca evrilen siyasetinin sonucunda oluşan hidropolitik konseptin, Mısır ve kısmen Sudan merkezli olması sömürgecilik öncesi ve sonrası dönemde Nil hidropolitiğinin bu ülkeler lehine şekillenmesini beraberinde getirmiştir. Bu durum Nil Nehri sularının mevzubahis olduğu anlaşmalar ile taraf ülkeler Mısır ve Sudan arasındaki su paylaşımlarıyla günümüzdeki tartışmaların temelini oluşturmuştur.

Bu çalışmada Nil Nehri’ndeki günümüz su paylaşım sorunlarının kolonyal kökenleri üzerine durulmuştur. Mısır’ın havzada hidrohegemon konuma getiren faktörler, Britanya’nın izlediği hidro emperyal politikalar, bu süreç boyunca ve sonrasında yapılan anlaşmalar ile günümüz Nil statükosunun oluşumu irdelenmiştir. Ayrıca kıtada bağımsızlığını kazanan ülkelerin Nil’deki statükoya karşı ilk tepkilerine yer verilmiştir.

The Eastern Nile Basin is known for its power asymmetry and the existence of Egypt‟s hydro-hegemony in the Basin, Ethiopia has been contesting this hydro-hegemony, through various counter hydro-hegemonic mechanisms and strategies. This research takes the commencement of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) as one of Ethiopia‟s counter-hydro hegemonic strategy. The thesis examined the change in the power relation among Eastern Nile Riparian states and the counter hydro-hegemonic mechanisms applied before and after the commencement of the GERD. The research applied qualitative research methods, using both primary and secondary sources. Interviews were conducted with experts, officials from relevant institutions and offices in Ethiopia; an attempt to interview officials of Sudan and Egypt Embassies in Addis Ababa has failed. The study reveals the power relation in the Eastern Nile Basin has started to change as Ethiopia started to show a relative increase of power that makes it capable of narrowing the power asymmetry in the Basin. Ethiopia has applied various counter hydro-hegemonic mechanisms before and after the commencement of the GERD against the hydro-hegemony of Egypt in order to bring about equitable and reasonable utilization of Nile waters in the Basin. Ethiopia‟s counter hydro-hegemony started to become more significant mostly after Ethiopia commenced a unilateral national hydroelectric dam projects, particularly the GERD with domestic funding. As a result, Ethiopia applied both leveraging and liberating counter hydro-hegemonic mechanisms simultaneously in the Basin. Ethiopia was successful in setting an agenda for the creation of the International Panel of Expert to build the confidence of the downstream states by urged them to accept the GERD as a fact on the ground. Ethiopia has also managed to draw Sudan‟s support concerning the construction of the GERD, and able to win their support apart from its (Sudan‟s) former stance as an ally of Egypt concerning any matters related to the Nile. And, Ethiopia was also able to sign the Declaration of Principles on the use of the GERD with Egypt and Sudan, where the downstream states had compromised from their former position of „acquired‟ and „historic right‟ concerning the usage of Nile waters. The thesis concludes by highlighting that the GERD is one component of Ethiopia‟s counter hydro-hegemony, with the potential to physically control water and assert greater power in the Basin when

Since the end of the Cold War, classical “regional cooperation” has been the most mentioned approach to resolve transboundary water conflicts between riparian states, yet this approach faces new challenges, such as the devastating impacts of prolonged drought as well as ongoing instability and conflicts, thus requiring a new paradigm to water cooperation.Approximately 40% of the global population live in transboundary water basins and growing threats such as climate change emphasise the urgent need for coordinated management of transboundary water bodies. The reality of global change calls for innovative “hydro-diplomacy” aimed at strengthening international collaboration for climate change adaptation under the framework of regional security and win-win politics.
The classical nature of international relations needs to change from a zero-sum game based on resource appropriation to a platform of mutually beneficial and supportive interrelations. This change needs more than intention, and requires a new paradigm. It requires us to identify the most effective mechanisms for governments to engage in regional collaboration that would be effective in managing a shared watercourse.
There is a paradox in that although the vital importance of transboundary water management is continuously emphasised, there has been little advancement in the development of applicable and effective frameworks for realistic international water cooperation in the past decades. This article presents a new paradigm for more realistic international water cooperation and collaboration.