GE

The subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) predictive timescale, encompassing lead times ranging from 2 weeks to a season, is at the frontier of forecasting science. Forecasts on this timescale provide opportunities for enhanced application-focused capabilities to complement existing weather and climate services and products. There is, however, a ‘knowledge-value’ gap, where a lack of evidence and awareness of the potential socio-economic benefits of S2S forecasts limits their wider uptake. To address this gap, here we present the first global community effort at summarizing relevant applications of S2S forecasts to guide further decision-making and support the continued development of S2S forecasts and related services. Focusing on 12 sectoral case studies spanning public health, agriculture, water resource management, renewable energy and utilities, and emergency management and response, we draw on recent advancements to explore their application and utility. These case studies mark a sign...

The ge 戈, a halberd-type bronze weapon, was one of the most widely used weapons during the Bronze and early Iron Age of China. It was common 3500-2200 years ago in northern China and remained in use until the late Western Han Dynasty in southwestern China. This paper discusses the chronological distribution, functions, and possible stylistic origin of ge from the Shizhaishan cultural complex, a Bronze-Iron Age culture distributed over central and northeastern Yunnan. The analysis indicates that this weapon was first adopted beginning in the Spring and Autumn period of northeastern Yunnan (c. 800-750 BCE) and use then peaked during the late Warring States period and Western Han Dynasty in the Lake Dian region. The ge of the Shizhaishan cultural complex possibly had more functions than their northern counterparts and the Shizhaishan people possibly transformed them in size, shape and decoration in order to meet the local tastes. Furthermore, the typological evidence suggests that the stylistic origin of Shizhaishan ge was Sichuan.

We study analytically and numerically the stability of the standing waves for a nonlinear Schrödinger equation with a point defect and a power type nonlinearity. A main difficulty is to compute the number of negative eigenvalues of the linearized operator around the standing waves, and it is overcome by a perturbation method and continuation arguments. Among others, in the case of a repulsive defect, we show that the standing wave solution is stable in and unstable in under subcritical nonlinearity. Further we investigate the nature of instability: under critical or supercritical nonlinear interaction, we prove the instability by blowup in the repulsive case by showing a virial theorem and using a minimization method involving two constraints. In the subcritical radial case, unstable bound states cannot collapse, but rather narrow down until they reach the stable regime (a finite-width instability). In the non-radial repulsive case, all bound states are unstable, and the instability...

Satellite remote sensing has been practised since 1972, starting with broad channels and moderate ground resolution (Landsat MSS). In the 198Os, Landsat TM and SPOT provided for improved spatial and spectral resolutions, Many satellite images were produced in these two decades, offering a synoptic view of landscapes ing the monitoring of land cover (including snow) and thermal condition.

This review critically assesses a large and growing literature on multiactor environmental governance. The first section provides an historical and conceptual background to the observed increase in such arrangements. The second section describes the diversity of governance arrangements and the related actor constellations to address environmental issues, and the third section offers some explanations for the origins, form, and effectiveness of multiactor governance arrangements. The conclusion reflects on some of the key challenges in advancing and deepening research in this area and suggests some fruitful avenues for future work.

Light attenuation in marine ecosystems can limit primary production and determine the species composition and abundance of primary producers. In Florida Bay, the importance of understanding the present light environment has heightened as major upstream water management restoration projects have been proposed and some are already being implemented. We analyzed a 2-yr (2001-2003) data set of the light attenuation coefficient (K t) and its principal components (water, chromophoric dissolved organic matter [CDOM], tripton, phytoplankton) obtained at 40 stations within Florida Bay, calibrated synoptic underway data to produce high spatial resolution maps, examined the potential for light limitation, and quantified the individual effect of each component upon light attenuation. Tripton was the dominant component controlling light attenuation throughout Florida Bay, whereas the contribution of chlorophyll a and CDOM to K t was much smaller in all regions of Florida Bay. It was possible to accurately estimate the light attenuation coefficient from component concentrations, using either a mechanistic or a statistical model with root mean square errors of 0.252 or 0.193 m 21 , respectively. Compared to other estuaries, Florida Bay had the lowest overall K t and the greatest relative contribution from tripton. Comparing the recent data to a study of Florida Bay's light environment conducted in 1993-1994, we found that overall water clarity in the Bay increased significantly, indicated by a nearly 3-fold decrease in K t , as a result of lower tripton concentrations, although the percent contribution of each of the components to K t is unchanged. Only the northwest corner of Florida Bay, an area comprised of approximately 8% of the Bay's total area, was found on average to have sufficient light attenuation to limit the growth of seagrasses. This is much less extensive than in 1993-1994, when seagrass growth was potentially limited by light at over 50% of the stations sampled.

Using molecular dynamics simulations, we investigate the effects of different nanoconfinements on complex liquids-e.g., colloids or protein solutions-with density anomalies and a liquid-liquid phase transition (LLPT). In all the confinements, we find a strong depletion effect with a large increase in liquid density near the confining surface. If the nanoconfinement is modeled by an ordered matrix of nanoparticles, we find that the anomalies are preserved. On the contrary, if the confinement is modeled by a disordered matrix of nanoparticles, we find a drastically different phase diagram: the LLPT shifts to lower pressures and temperatures, and the anomalies become weaker, as the disorder increases. We find that the density heterogeneities induced by the disordered matrix are responsible for the weakening of the LLPT and the disappearance of the anomalies.

By focusing on a half-century of recent Latin American economic history, this book presents a multidisciplinary approach to examining the relentless pursuit of development in the Global South and aims to revitalise the academic debate on whether having abundant natural resources is a blessing or a curse. Its pioneering diachronic comparative approach of analysing two Ecuadorian oil booms, those in 1972–1980 and 2003–2014, reveals processes of continuity and change in the capacity of this peripheral state to intervene in its national development process and the consequences of this on its social formation, framed by the contemporary trends of global capitalism and the irruption of environmental thinking into development policymaking.

Wave mechanics of a particle in 1-D box (size $= d$) is critically analyzed to reveal its untouched aspects. When the particle rests in its ground state, its zero-point force ($F_o$) produces non-zero strain by modifying the box size from $d$ to $d' = d + \Delta d$ in all practical situations where the force ($F_a$) restoring $d$ is not infinitely strong. Assuming that $F_a$ originates from a potential $\propto x^2$ ($x$ being a small change in $d$), we find that: (i) the particle and strained box assume a mutually bound state (under the equilibrium between $F_o$ and $F_a$) with binding energy $\Delta{E} = -\epsilon_o'\Delta{d}/d'$ (with $\epsilon_o' = h^2/8md'^2$ being the ground state energy of the particle in the strained box), (ii) the box size oscillates around $d'$ when the said equilibrium is disturbed, (iii) an exchange of energy between the particle and the strained box occurs during such oscillations, and (iv) the particle, having collisional motion...

The paper presents a model system, which consists of a partial equilibrium model and process-based terrestrial biogeochemistry models, to determine the optimal distributions of both Miscanthus (Miscanthus 9 giganteus) and short rotation coppice willow (SRC) (Salix. viminalis L. x S. viminalis var Joruun) in Great Britain (GB), as well as their potential contribution to meet heat and electricity demand in GB. Results show that the potential contribution of Miscanthus and SRC to heat and electricity demand is significant. Without considering farm-scale economic constraints, Miscanthus and SRC could generate, in an economically competitive way compared with other energy generation costs, 224 800 GWh yr À1 heat and 112 500 GWh yr À1 electricity, with 8 Mha of available land under Miscanthus and SRC, accounting for 66% of total heat demand and 62% of total electricity demand respectively. Given the pattern of heat and electricity demand, and the relative yields of Miscanthus and SRC in different parts of GB, Miscanthus is mainly favoured in the Midlands and areas in the South of GB, whereas SRC is favoured in Scotland, the Midlands and areas in the South of GB.

We test Laplacian-level meta-generalized gradient approximation (meta-GGA) non-interacting kinetic energy functionals based on the fourth-order gradient expansion (GE4). We consider several well known Laplacian-level meta-GGAs from literature (bare GE4, modified GE4, and the MGGA functional of Perdew and Constantin [Phys. Rev. B 75,155109 (2007)]), as well as two newly designed Laplacian-level kinetic energy functionals (named L0.4 and L0.6). First, a general assessment of the different functionals is performed, testing them for model systems (one-electron densities, Hooke's atom and different jellium systems), atomic and molecular kinetic energies as well as for their behavior with respect to density-scaling transformations. Finally, we assess, for the first time, the performance of the different functionals for Subsystem Density Functional Theory (DFT) calculations on non-covalently interacting systems. We find that the different Laplacian-level meta-GGA kinetic functionals may improve the description of different properties of electronic systems but no clear overall advantage is found over the best GGA functionals. Concerning Subsystem DFT calculations, the here proposed L0.4 kinetic energy functional is competitive with state-of-the-art GGAs, whereas all other Laplacian-level functionals fail badly. The performance of the Laplacian-level functionals is rationalized thanks to a two-dimensional reduced-gradient and reduced-Laplacian decomposition of the non-additive kinetic energy density.

Building trust in science and evidence-based decision-making depends heavily on the credibility of studies and their findings. Researchers employ many different study designs that vary in their risk of bias to evaluate the true effect of interventions or impacts. Here, we empirically quantify, on a large scale, the prevalence of different study designs and the magnitude of bias in their estimates. Randomised designs and controlled observational designs with pre-intervention sampling were used by just 23% of intervention studies in biodiversity conservation, and 36% of intervention studies in social science. We demonstrate, through pairwise within-study comparisons across 49 environmental datasets, that these types of designs usually give less biased estimates than simpler observational designs. We propose a model-based approach to combine study estimates that may suffer from different levels of study design bias, discuss the implications for evidence synthesis, and how to facilitate...

Many contemporary societal challenges manifest themselves in the domain of human-environment interactions. There is a growing recognition that responses to these challenges formulated within current disciplinary boundaries, in isolation from their wider contexts, cannot adequately address them. Here, we outline the need for an integrated, transdisciplinary synthesis that allows for a holistic approach, and, above all, a much longer time perspective. We outline both the need for and the fundamental characteristics of what we call "integrated history." This approach promises to yield new understandings of the relationship between the past, present, and possible futures of our integrated human-environment system. We recommend a unique new focus of our historical efforts on the future, rather than the past, concentrated on learning about future possibilities from history. A growing worldwide community of transdisciplinary scholars is forming around building this Integrated History and future of People on Earth (IHOPE). Building integrated models of past human societies and their interactions with their environments yields new insights into those interactions and can help to create a more sustainable and desirable future. The activity has become a major focus within the global change community.

A progressive global increase in the burden of allergic diseases has affected the industrialized world over the last half century and has been reported in the literature. The clinical evidence reveals a general increase in both incidence and prevalence of respiratory diseases, such as allergic rhinitis (common hay fever) and asthma. Such phenomena may be related not only to air pollution and changes in lifestyle, but also to an actual increase in airborne quantities of allergenic pollen. Experimental enhancements of carbon dioxide (CO 2) have demonstrated changes in pollen amount and allergenicity, but this has rarely been shown in the wider environment. The present analysis of a continental-scale pollen data set reveals an increasing trend in the yearly amount of airborne pollen for many taxa in Europe, which is more pronounced in urban than semi-rural/rural areas. Climate change may contribute to these changes, however increased temperatures do not appear to be a major influencing factor. Instead, we suggest the anthropogenic rise of atmospheric CO 2 levels may be influential.

Volatile organic compound (VOC) contamination of subsurface geological material and groundwater was discovered on the Nortel Monkstown industrial site, Belfast, Northern Ireland. The objectives of this study were to (1) investigate the characteristics of the geological material and its influences on contaminated groundwater flow across the site using borehole logs and hydrological evaluations, and (2) identify the contaminants and examine their distribution in the subsurface geological material and groundwater using chemical analysis. This report focuses on the eastern car park (ECP) which was a former storage area associated with trichloroethene (TCE) degreasing operations. This is where the greatest amount of volatile organic compounds (VOCs), particularly TCE, were detected. The study site is on a complex deposit of clayey glacial till with discontinuous coarser grained lenses, mainly silts, sands and gravel, which occur at 0.45-7.82 m below ground level (bgl). The lenses overall form an elongated formation that acts as a small unconfined shallow aquifer. There is a continuous low permeable stiff clayey till layer beneath the lenses that performs as an aquitard to the groundwater. Highest concentrations of VOCs, mainly TCE, in the geological material and groundwater are in these coarser lenses at~4.5-7 m bgl. Highest TCE measurements at 390,000 lg L-1 for groundwater and at 39,000 lg kg-1 at 5.7 m for geological material were in borehole GA19 in the coarse lens zone. It is assumed that TCE gained entrance to the subsurface near this borehole where the clayey till was thin to absent above coarse lenses which provided little retardation to the vertical migration of this dense nonaqueous phase liquid (DNAPL) into the groundwater. However, TCE is present in low concentrations in the geological material overlying the coarse lens zone. Additionally, VOCs appear to be associated with poorly drained layers and in peat <3.0 m bgl in the ECP. Some indication of natural attenuation as VOCs degradation products vinyl chloride (VC) and dichloromethane (DCM) also occur on the site.

Burnt mounds, or fulachtaí fiadh as they are known in Ireland, are probably the most common prehistoric site type in Ireland and Britain. Typically Middle–Late Bronze Age in age (although both earlier and later examples are known), they are artefact-poor and rarely associated with settlements. The function of these sites has been much debated with the most commonly cited uses being for cooking, as steam baths or saunas, for brewing, tanning, or textile processing. A number of major infrastructural development schemes in Ireland in the years 2002–2007 revealed remarkable numbers of these mounds often associated with wood-lined troughs, many of which were extremely well-preserved. This afforded an opportunity to investigate them as landscape features using environmental techniques – specifically plant macrofossils and charcoal, pollen, beetles, and multi-element analyses. This paper summarises the results from eight sites from Ireland and compares them with burnt mound sites in Great ...

Abstract: The aim of the work was to define the influence of dietary supplementation with GM (genetically modified) GT#4 flaxseed cake enriched in polyphenols on inflammation development in mice liver. Mice were given ad libitum isoprotein diets: (1) standard diet; (2) high-fat diet rich in lard, high-fat diet enriched with 30 % of (3) isogenic flax Linola seed cake; and (4) GM GT#4 flaxseed cake; for 96 days. Administration of transgenic and isogenic seed cake lowered body weight gain, of transgenic to the standard diet level. Serum total antioxidant status was statistically significantly improved in GT#4 flaxseed cake group and did not differ from Linola. Serum thiobarbituric acid reactive substances, lipid profile and the liver concentration of pro-inflammatory cytokine tumor necrosis factor-α were ameliorated by GM and isogenic flaxseed cake consumption. The level of pro-inflammatory cytokine interferon-γ did not differ between mice obtaining GM GT#4 and non-GM flaxseed cakes. T...

The potential for the efficient and effective organization of market processes by using interactive media is hardly used. Intelligent software agents represent one of most interesting the innovative technologies under economical criteria. This article shows how supplier can use software agents for the individualization and automation of their marketing instruments applied. The use of methods from artificial intelligence enables agents to learn. Thus the automatic optimization of the marketing instruments becomes possible to satisfy massive individualized needs of the demander. Moreover it is outlined, which effect the supplier’s use of software agent has on the buying behavior of the demander. Interaction effects are considerated, which develop, if demander likewise use software agents for the support of their purchase process. This article shows that software agents increase the effectiveness and efficiency of market processes on several levels of the Consumer Buying Behavior Model.

In Costa Rica, considerable effort goes to conservation and protection of biodiversity, while at the same time agricultural pesticide use is among the highest in the world. Several protected areas, some being wetlands or marine reserves, are situated downstream large-scale banana farms, with an average of 57 pesticide applications per year. The banana industry is increasingly aware of the need to reduce their negative environmental impact, but few ecological field studies have been made to evaluate the efficiency of proposed mitigation strategies. This study compared the composition of benthic macroinvertebrate communities up- and downstream effluent water from banana farms in order to assess whether benthic invertebrate community structure can be used to detect environmental impact of banana farming, and thereby usable to assess improvements in management practises. Aquatic invertebrate samples were collected at 13 sites, using kick-net sampling, both up- and downstream banana farm...

Research on forest ownership has received growing attention in recent years, particularly in relation to the effects of restitution processes in former socialist countries, emerging new forest owner types, trends towards fragmentation of ownership structures, and questions related to the steady supply of forest industries with raw materials. Literature reviews indicate that despite the profound impact of different ownership categories on the actual forest management and fulfilment of policy goals, the aspect of ownership is rarely included in research on forest management or forest policy. Future research should first develop a more differentiated picture of legal forest ownership categories and owner types, going beyond a simple dichotomy of public and private ownership forms, and beyond simplified typologies such as non-traditional, urban or absentee forest owners. Second, it should tackle the question how the form of ownership relates to forest management and the provision of goods and services, and the extent to which new management approaches are needed for different owner types. Thirdly, it should ask about effective support structures for forest

Abstract. The kernel-based classifiers use one of the classical kernels, but the real-world applications have emphasized the need to consider a new kernel function in order to boost the classification accuracy by a bet-ter adaptation of the kernel function to the characteristics of the data. Our purpose is to automatically design a complex kernel by evolutionary means. In order to achieve this purpose we develop a hybrid model that combines a Genetic Programming (GP) algorithm and a kernel-based Support Vec-tor Machine (SVM) classifier. Each GP chromosome is a tree encoding the mathematical expression of the kernel function. The evolved kernel is compared to several human-designed kernels and to a previous genetic kernel on several datasets. Numerical experiments show that the SVM embedding our evolved kernel performs statistically better than standard kernels, but also than previous genetic kernel for the considered classifica-tion problems.

The west coast of Scotland is comprised of complex coastlines and topography, and a range of physical processes influence its coastal marine environment. The region is host to one of the highest densities of harbour porpoise Phocoena phocoena in Europe. The aim of this study was to identify habitat preferences driving the distribution of harbour porpoise, to gain a better understanding of the spatial distribution of the species in the region, as well as to assess the consistency of such patterns across time and space. Visual and acoustic line-transect surveys were conducted between 2003 and 2010. Generalised Additive Models (GAMs) with Generalised Estimating Equations (GEEs) were used to robustly determine relationships between the relative density of harbour porpoises and temporally and spatially variable oceanographic covariates. Predictive models showed that depth, slope, spring tidal range and distance to land were consistently important in explaining porpoise distribution. Consistent preferences for water depths between 50 and 150 m and highly sloped regions were observed across the temporal models. Predicted distributions revealed a consistent inshore presence for the species throughout the west coast of Scotland and confirmed that predictable oceanographic features could help inform the establishment of Special Areas of Conservation (SACs) for the species.

This article focuses on the drivers and barriers afforded by three innovations—automated vehicles, electric mobility, and ridesharing and bike-sharing—in the four African urban areas of Johannesburg (South Africa), Kigali (Rwanda), Lagos (Nigeria) and Nairobi (Kenya). We ask: what are the drivers behind these innovations in these regions? What are the potential barriers? And what implications for policy or sustainability transitions emerge? Based on a review of the academic literature, we argue that these innovations are particularly important at providing low-carbon transition for the transport sector, even though low-carbon development is an important topic that is under-researched in many developing economies. We begin by introducing these three innovations and justifying our four case studies. We base the research design on an interdisciplinary critical and umbrella literature review. We then discuss the results of our review, which is organized as a dualism of positive drivers and negative barriers, before discussing how to better harness innovation for low-carbon mobility in an African context. We find that the possible benefits of our three innovations exist only juxtaposed next to negative barriers; no innovation is purely positive or negative and all of them have multiple dimensions of positivity and negativity. Although we have treated each of the three innovations as fairly isolated from one another, there are emergent (and potentially strong) potential couplings or entanglements between them, e.g. between electrification and two-wheelers or automation and ridesharing. In some contexts, hybridization, incrementalism and leapfrogging are seen as positive attributes and desirable characteristics of planning and technology adoption

The subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) predictive time scale, encompassing lead times ranging from 2 weeks to a season, is at the frontier of forecasting science. Forecasts on this time scale provide opportunities for enhanced application-focused capabilities to complement existing weather and climate services and products. There is, however, a “knowledge–value” gap, where a lack of evidence and awareness of the potential socioeconomic benefits of S2S forecasts limits their wider uptake. To address this gap, here we present the first global community effort at summarizing relevant applications of S2S forecasts to guide further decision-making and support the continued development of S2S forecasts and related services. Focusing on 12 sectoral case studies spanning public health, agriculture, water resource management, renewable energy and utilities, and emergency management and response, we draw on recent advancements to explore their application and utility. These case studies mark a sig...

Background Malaria is a significant public health problem in Tanzania. Approximately 16 million malaria cases are reported every year and 100,000 to 125,000 deaths occur. Although most of Tanzania is endemic to malaria, epidemics occur in the highlands, notably in Kagera, a region that was subject to widespread malaria epidemics in 1997 and 1998. This study examined the relationship between climate and malaria incidence in Kagera with the aim of determining whether seasonal forecasts may assist in predicting malaria epidemics. Methods A regression analysis was performed on retrospective malaria and climatic data during each of the two annual malaria seasons to determine the climatic factors influencing malaria incidence. The ability of the DEMETER seasonal forecasting system in predicting the climatic anomalies associated with malaria epidemics was then assessed for each malaria season. Results It was found that malaria incidence is positively correlated with rainfall during the fir...

Burnt mounds, or fulachtaí fiadh as they are known in Ireland, are probably the most common prehistoric site type in Ireland and Britain. Typically Middle–Late Bronze Age in age (although both earlier and later examples are known), they are artefact-poor and rarely associated with settlements. The function of these sites has been much debated with the most commonly cited uses being for cooking, as steam baths or saunas, for brewing, tanning, or textile processing. A number of major infrastructural development schemes in Ireland in the years 2002–2007 revealed remarkable numbers of these mounds often associated with wood-lined troughs, many of which were extremely well-preserved. This afforded an opportunity to investigate them as landscape features using environmental techniques – specifically plant macrofossils and charcoal, pollen, beetles, and multi-element analyses. This paper summarises the results from eight sites from Ireland and compares them with burnt mound sites in Great ...