Flood Myth

This study analyzes the atmospheric variability that caused the largest floods affecting the town of Tortosa, Spain, in the mouth of the Ebro River (northeast Iberian Peninsula). The Tortosa flood database and flood marks in the nearby town of Xerta are used to define the more relevant flooding episodes (discharges >2900 m3 s−1) of the 1600–2005 period. We explore the atmospheric variability based on low-frequency patterns and synoptic types applying a multivariable analysis to grids at sea level pressure and geopotential at 500 hPa provided by the twentieth-century V3 Reanalysis Project for the instrumental period (since 1836). Output from the Last Millennium Ensemble Project was used to analyze the sea level pressure over the pre-instrumental period (before 1836). Our analysis includes 33 flood episodes. Four synoptic types are related to floods in Tortosa since 1836, characterized by low pressure systems that interact with the Mediterranean warm air mass and promote atmospheri...

Urban ooding as well as its socio-economic repercussions is dramatically escalating globally in several coastal cities due to changes in rainfall patterns triggered by climate change. The principal aim of the study is to evaluate the ood vulnerable locations in Mumbai by using a multi-criteria evaluation (MCE) approach. The weights of ood-vulnerable impacting parameters like rainfall, slope, land use/cover (LULC), vicinity to sewers and storm water drainage, vicinity to natural drainage, vegetation, and soil are evaluated using the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP). The weights for said parameters are determined by using AHP, and they are as follows: rainfall (29.42%), slope (20.96%), LULC (17.52%), vicinity to sewers and storm water drainage (13.99%), vicinity to natural drainage (8.97%), vegetation (5.58%), and soil (3.56%). In the study area, it is estimated that 46.72% of the area is classi ed as being severe vulnerable, 18.74% of the area as high to very high and just 34.54% of the area as slight to moderate. Researchers were able to validate the modelling conclusion by examination of all 234 water-logged locations in the study area. Most of the water-logged spots i.e. 85.46% were found in areas that fall under the category of severe to very high vulnerability and only 14% of locations fall in other three categories as per the data of the ooding sites that are collected from MCGM authorities. These model-based ood vulnerable scenario maps are crucial for planning ood conservation and control measures to prioritize the area based on the degree of vulnerability.

Urban flooding as well as its socio-economic repercussions is dramatically escalating globally in several coastal cities due to changes in rainfall patterns triggered by climate change. The principal aim of the study is to evaluate the flood vulnerable locations in Mumbai by using a multi-criteria evaluation (MCE) approach. The weights of flood-vulnerable impacting parameters like rainfall, slope, land use/cover (LULC), vicinity to sewers and storm water drainage, vicinity to natural drainage, vegetation, and soil are evaluated using the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP). The weights for said parameters are determined by using AHP, and they are as follows: rainfall (29.42%), slope (20.96%), LULC (17.52%), vicinity to sewers and storm water drainage (13.99%), vicinity to natural drainage (8.97%), vegetation (5.58%), and soil (3.56%). In the study area, it is estimated that 46.72% of the area is classified as being severe vulnerable, 18.74% of the area as high to very high and just 3...

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Introduction
The 21st century is witnessing the increase of climate change as an important challenge due to its destructive environmental and socio-economic effects. Extreme climatic conditions have become frequent and more intense in recent decades as a result of human activities. Iran, as one of the countries in the Middle East with a different climate in each region of the country, has suffered significant adverse effects of climate change. Considering the importance of the climate change, it is important to investigate the changes in climate variables to know the future conditions and make management decisions. In the field of climate research, global climate models are useful tools that are often used to investigate the global climate system, including historical and projected periods. Since the use of the CMIP6 dataset provides improved clarity and accuracy for predicting future climate forecasts, the main objective of the present study is to predict the temperature and precipitation changes in the near, mid, and far future in Sistan-va-Baluchestan province.

Materials and Methods
The minimum temperature, maximum temperature, and precipitation data of 10 general circulation models (GCMs) of the 6th IPCC report for the baseline (1990-2014) were downloaded from the Global Climate Research Program database (https://esgf-node.llnl.gov). Then GCMs were including ACCESS-CM2, CMCC-ESM2, CNRM-CM6-1-HR, CNRM-ESM2-1, EC-Earth3-CC, EC-Earth3-Veg-LR, INM-CM4-8, INM-CM5-0, MIROC6, and NorESM2-MM. Four statistical indicators including correlation coefficient (R2), RMSE, Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), and mean absolute error (MAE) were used to evaluate the performance of 10 GCMs. Based on the results obtained from the these indicators, the models that had higher performance in predicting the temperature and precipitation data were selected as the best models for forecasting in the future. The ensemble of these models under two SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios for the near, middle, and far future (2026-2050, 2051-2075, and 2076-2100) were extracted from the World Climate Research Program database.
CMhyd (Climate Model data for hydrologic modeling) tool was used to bias correction climate data of the selected models. In order to choose the best bias correction method, the R2, RMSE, NSE, and MAE were estimated.
After bias correction, the climate data of selected models were ensembled and then the changes in precipitation and maximum and minimum temperature in three future periods compared to the baseline was estimated.

Results and Discussion
The results showed that out of 10 GCMs, seven models had good performance (R2 > 0.40, 4.23 < RMSE < 12.02°C, 0.12 < NSE < 0.74, and 3.36 < MAE < 9.59°C) in simulating daily minimum and maximum temperature. However, the performance of all models in simulated daily precipitation was poor (R2 > 0.19, 1.24 < RMSE < 3.70 mm, -7.41 < NSE < -0.57, and 0.23 < MAE < 0.85 mm).
Among the different bias correction methods of temperature and precipitation available in CMhyd, the distribution mapping method had the best performance.
In all three regions, compared to the baseline, the average annual minimum and maximum temperature under two scenarios will increase in the future periods and precipitation will decrease in most periods and scenarios. These changes will be mainly in the SSP5-8.5 scenario compared to SSP2-4.5 and also in the far future period compared to the middle and near future. Averaged across all locations, annual maximum temperature showed increases in near, middle, and far projected periods of 1.3, 2.1, and 2.8°C under SSP2-4.5 and 1.6, 3.1, and 5.1°C under SSP5-8.5, respectively (Fig. 2), while for minimum temperature, the increases will be of 1.6, 2.6, and 3.4°C for SSP2-4.5 and 1.9, 3.9, and 6.3°C for SSP5-8.5. The range of annual precipitation among all sites was from –58.22 to 49.33% under SSP5-8.5 in the near and far future periods in Zabol and Iranshahr, respectively.
The annual increase in the average maximum and minimum temperature will be mainly due to the increase in air temperature in the months of January, February, August, September, October, November and December. The annual decrease in precipitation will mainly result from the decrease in precipitation in January, February, March, November, and December, and the annual increase in precipitation will result from the significant increase in precipitation in May and October compared to the baseline.

Conclusion
The results showed that under different scenarios of climate change, the maximum and minimum temperatures in the near, middle, and far future periods will face an increase compared to the baseline. However, the precipitation changes in the future time periods are not the same as compared to the baseline, and in some periods the precipitation will decrease and in others it will increase. But in general, the decrease in precipitation will be more than its increase. Therefore, it is very important to formulate and implement appropriate management programs for the needs of each region, in order to properly manage water resources and adapt to extreme temperatures and their consequences.

 Nepal is among the most vulnerable countries regarding climate-induced-disasters. Nepal is ranked 30th among 198 countries in flood hazard. Climate change associated vulnerability is contextual and gender specific as it impacts men and women differently. It intensifies the socially created inequalities between men and women where women are always the worst victim for their gender differentiated roles and lack of access and control over resources. This paper discusses gender perspective on climate induced disaster, its impact and adaptation in Dodhara and Chandani VDCs of the Kanchanpur district based on the both primary and secondary sources of data. The primary information was collected using structured questionnaire from 96 households, key informant interviews and focus group discussion in both VDCs. The meteorological data (30 years) particularly rainfall and temperature were analysed to see the rainfall pattern and temperature trends. Analysis of temperature data revealed incre...

Floods account for more than half of the global hydrometeorological risks. Severe floods cause significant economic shocks and loss of lives, particularly for developing countries such as Jamaica. There is need for more information on the present and projected flood risks to justify macro-scale planning for climate change adaptation and facilitate the decision-making processes. In this study, a catalogue of 198 flood events occurring between 1678 and 2010 is compiled for Jamaica and used to examine the climatology, occurrence, trends, causes and duration of the island's severe events. The annual flood risk is estimated to be a loss of life rate of 4 persons and estimated annual damage of USD96.3 million per annum in 2010 values and approximately 0.84 % of GDP per annum. Macro-scale models for flood risks (deaths and damages) are also developed using data from the flood catalogue and maximum precipitation at the town and parish level. The models examine the relationship between flood risks (death and damages) and extreme rainfall depths and intensities. Future climate risks of loss of lives and damages are predicted to increase 11 and 9 %, respectively, to 4.4 persons and USD105.2 million per annum.

Digital Elevation Models (DEM) are widely used in many different applications such as orthophoto production, 3D city models, hydrological modeling, visibility, flood, flood analysis and etc. The densest grid spacing DEM covering Turkey is the DTED-2 data produced by the General Command of Mapping with a grid spacing of 1 second (approximately 30 m). Denser and more accurate DEM is produced by several institutions in only required areas but not covering whole country. Governmental institutions need denser, more accurate, homogeneous and countrywide DEM. This study is conducted to meet DEM demands with optimum accuracy and density by stereo aerial photos. In order to investigate the optimal resolution for a countrywide DEM, test DEMs are produced in three different areas representing the general topographic structure of Turkey by using 45 cm ground sampling distance stereo aerial photos. The Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) of the heights of three areas are respectively ± 2.51 m, ± 1.38 ...

Water quality is crucial for public health, food security, and ecological balance. In heavily utilized water resources, the risk of microbial contamination, indicated by total and fecal coliforms, increases, posing significant public health and environmental challenges. These coliforms are key indicators used to assess water quality and treatment effectiveness. The objective of this study is to investigate the pathways and impact of total and fecal coliform contamination from wastewater to river systems in Garut Regency, Indonesia, and to assess its implications for clean water resources and agricultural practices. We assessed the levels of total and fecal coliforms in wastewater, well water used for drinking water source, as well as in river water used for agricultural irrigation across different areas of Garut Regency, Indonesia. The laboratory analysis showed that fecal and total coliform levels in the Cigulampeng River in Garut Kota Sub-District surpassed the standards outlined in Government Regulation No. 22 of 2021, Class II, which is intended for irrigation. Additionally, the total coliform levels in well water from Karangpawitan Sub-District exceeded the safe limits for drinking water. In Tarogong Kidul Sub-District, both residential river water and a company's well water were found to be unsuitable for irrigation and drinking, respectively, due to elevated coliform levels.

Hidrograf Satuan Sintetik (HSS) adalah alat penting dalam analisis hidrologi yang digunakan untuk memprediksi respons aliran sungai terhadap curah hujan. Namun, keterbatasan model HSS yang ada dalam merepresentasikan kompleksitas geomorfologi Daerah Aliran Sungai (DAS) telah menjadi tantangan dalam meningkatkan akurasi prediksi hidrologi, terutama di wilayah dengan topografi yang bervariasi. Model HSS tradisional sering kali mengasumsikan bahwa DAS bersifat homogen dan linier, yang tidak mencerminkan kenyataan di lapangan, seperti pola percabangan sungai yang kompleks dan distribusi curah hujan yang tidak merata. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk memodifikasi koefisien HSS dengan mengintegrasikan karakteristik fraktal DAS, yang mencakup dimensi geometris jaringan sungai dan distribusi spasial aliran. Dimensi fraktal digunakan untuk menggambarkan pola kompleksitas jaringan sungai yang dapat memengaruhi parameter hidrologi utama, seperti debit puncak (Qp), waktu puncak (Tp), dan durasi aliran. Penelitian dilakukan pada beberapa DAS di wilayah Sulawesi Selatan dengan data hidrologi yang lengkap. Analisis fraktal dilakukan menggunakan metode box-counting dan dimensi Horton untuk menghitung parameter seperti panjang sungai utama, rasio percabangan, dan kerapatan jaringan drainase. Modifikasi HSS melibatkan integrasi karakteristik fraktal ke dalam parameter model, termasuk waktu konsentrasi dan debit puncak. Penelitian ini berkontribusi pada pengembangan metode hidrologi berbasis fraktal yang lebih adaptif terhadap kondisi geomorfologi DAS yang kompleks. Hasil penelitian ini memberikan dasar untuk pengelolaan sumber daya air yang lebih efektif, terutama dalam menghadapi tantangan perubahan iklim dan kebutuhan perencanaan infrastruktur air di masa depan.

Natural disasters including flood put negative impact on mental health of victims. The flood 2022 in Pakistan effected more than 33 million people. Sindh, Punjab, and KPK were the most flood effected provinces of Pakistan. Government and local NGOs provided shelter, food, and medicines and other material goods for physical wellbeing of the victims, but there was little or no psychological support available for them. Present study was focused to investigate the psychological impact of flood 2022 on flood victims of Sindh, Pakistan. It was a cross sectional study; non-probability convenience sampling technique was used for data collection. Data was collected from 80 flood victims I.e. 34 males and 46 females living in three shelter named Jamshoro camp, Hatri camp, and Kotri camp. The hypothesis of the study states that, there would be a no significant difference between the level of depression anxiety and stress among flood victims living in Jamshoro camp, Hatri camp, and Jamshoro camp. For the measurement of variables of the study depression anxiety and stress DASS 22 (Lovibond & Lovibond 1995) and personal information questionnaire was administered on participants of the study. Mean, SD, t-test and one way ANNOVA was computed for the interpretation of gathered data. Results of the study revealed that flood victims living in Jamshoro campus received greater scores on DASS as compared to Hatri and kotri camp. Thus the hypothesis of the study was not confirmed. The results of the study can be helpful to design psychological first aid, psychotherapies, counselling session for mentally disturbed flood victims. It is the requirement of the situation and a dire need to implement above said psychological interventions to reduce the risk of long term psychological problems among flood 2022 victims in Sindh.

The peri-urban interface (PUI) exhibits characteristic qualities of both urban and rural regions, and this complexity has meant that risk assessments and long-term planning for PUI are lagging, despite these areas representing new developing settlement frontiers. This study aims to address this knowledge gap by modifying an existing approach to quantify and assess flood risk. The risk triangle framework was used to map exposure, vulnerability and biophysical variables; however, in a novel application, the risk triangle framework was adapted by presuming that there is a variation in the degree of exposure, vulnerability and biophysical variables. Within Australia and globally, PUIs are often coastal, and flood risk associated with rainfall and coastal inundation poses considerable risk to communities in the PUI; these risks will be further exacerbated should projections of increasing frequency of extreme rainfall events and accelerating sea-level rise eventuate. An indicatorbased approach using the risk triangle framework that maps flood hazard, exposure and vulnerability was used to integrate the biophysical and socio-economic flooding risk for communities in PUI of the St Georges Basin and Sussex Inlet catchments of south-eastern Australia. Integrating the flood risk triangle with future scenarios of demographic and climate change, and considering factors that contribute to PUI flood risk, facilitated the identification of planning strategies that would reduce the future rate of increase in flood risk. These planning strategies are useful for natural resource managers and land use planners across Australia and globally, who are tasked with balancing socio-economic prosperity for a changing population, whilst maintaining and enhancing ecosystem services and values. The indicator-based approach used in this study provides a cost-effective first-pass risk assessment and is a valuable tool for decision makers planning for flood risk across PUIs in NSW and globally.

During the 20 th century there has been a dramatic development of the coastline leading to substantial population growth in coastal areas worldwide. Given that this trend is expected to continue in the future it raises critical challenges as climate change is likely to exacerbate the exposure of coastal populations to extreme weather events. While the severity of extreme events affecting those areas may lead to widespread damage and disasters, they might generate opportunities for change to occur in their socioeconomic, political and organisational systems improving their adaptation to climate change. For example, opportunities might be created to review how those areas are planned and managed as well as to gather lessons from past extreme events. This paper investigates how those opportunities emerge and are optimised by focusing on the Cardwell community in Far North Queensland, Australia. Like many other coastal locations worldwide, Cardwell is particularly vulnerable to sea level rise and tropical cyclones leading to severe storm surges and intense rainfall events. Cardwell's vulnerability to extreme weather events was confirmed in February 2011 when category five tropical cyclone Yasi affected the town causing widespread damage to its coastal community. Nonetheless, this community has begun a distinctive recovery phase by initiating the preparation of a long term strategy for its future independent of official planning processes of State and local governments. The paper focuses on this distinctive recovery phase in which the Cardwell community took the initiative of developing a long term strategy to maximise the opportunities presented in the post Yasi reconstruction phase and beyond. The paper describes the collaborative process involved in developing this strategic planning initiative which culminated in the proposition of a long term vision as well as a set of priority actions to improve adaptation of the Cardwell community. We also discuss how this bottom-up, community initiated and led, visioning and strategic planning initiative, may contribute to inform the planning process for climate change adaptation in urbanised coastal areas.

This paper explored the potential of Backpropagation Neural Network (BNN) and M5 model tree based regression approach to estimate the mean annual flood. Data used in this study were taken from an earlier study by Swamee et al. (J Water Resour Plan Manage 121:403-407, 1995) for 93 Indian catchments spread over the entire country. The relationship proposed by Swamee et al. (J Water Resour Plan Manage 121:403-407, 1995) was compared with the predictive accuracy of a BNN and M5 model tree approach. The data were analyzed using a tenfold crossvalidation. Comparison of the results showed that predictions with the backpropagation neural network fell within a scatter line of ±30% with a correlation coefficient of 0.975. Furthermore, predictions with the M5 model tree fell well within a scatter line of ±15% with a correlation coefficient as high as 0.994. The results also showed that predicted values with neural network and M5 model tree were within about 1.25 times the actual values. However, the predicted values obtained using the Swamee et al. (J Water Resour Plan Manage 121:403-407, 1995) approach fell much beyond the scatter line of ±50% and the predicted mean annual flood values were sometimes

Google's operational flood forecasting system was developed to provide accurate real-time flood warnings to agencies and the public with a focus on riverine floods in large, gauged rivers. It became operational in 2018 and has since expanded geographically. This forecasting system consists of four subsystems: data validation, stage forecasting, inundation modeling, and alert distribution. Machine learning is used for two of the subsystems. Stage forecasting is modeled with the long short-term memory (LSTM) networks and the linear models. Flood inundation is computed with the thresholding and the manifold models, where the former computes inundation extent and the latter computes both inundation extent and depth. The manifold model, presented here for the first time, provides a machine-learning alternative to hydraulic modeling of flood inundation. When evaluated on historical data, all models achieve sufficiently highperformance metrics for operational use. The LSTM showed higher skills than the linear model, while the thresholding and manifold models achieved similar performance metrics for modeling inundation extent. During the 2021 monsoon season, the flood warning system was operational in India and Bangladesh, covering flood-prone regions around rivers with a total area close to 470 000 km 2 , home to more than 350 000 000 people. More than 100 000 000 flood alerts were sent to affected populations, to relevant authorities, and to emergency organizations. Current and future work on the system includes extending coverage to additional flood-prone locations and improving modeling capabilities and accuracy. * Statistically significant (p value < 0.05) according to the Wilcoxon signed-rank test for the paired samples.

In the context of hydrodynamic modelling the use of 2D models is of fundamental importance in areas where the flow is not mono-dimensional. Nonetheless, the lack of bathymetric data to develop a global 2D model over an entire network or the computational cost of a global 2D model can be prohibitive for operational flood forecasting services. To overcome this limitation a solution is to use multi-dimensional coupling with the use of 1D models where the flow is monodimensional and the use of 2D models when needed. Multi-dimensional coupling allows for the use of a global hydrodynamic 1D/2D model over a network but for a much reduced computational cost compared to a global 2D model. It also guarantees the continuity of the hydraulic variables at the interfaces between the 1D and the 2D models with the use of a Schwarz algorithm adapted to the hydraulic case. In this study, multi-dimensional coupling in hydraulic was combined with 2D domain decomposition and 1D data assimilation of wate...

Flood hazards (flow depth and velocity) must be accurately assessed in high-risk areas during extreme flood events. However, the prediction of the very high flows is not an easy task due to the lack of field data and to the strong link between flow resistance and the land occupation of the floodplain. Confinement and inhomogeneity in lateral and longitudinal directions of hydraulic roughness strongly vary with return period T. The physical processes are complex, some still largely unexplored, and the assumptions linked to numerical modelling cannot be validated without field data. The FlowRes project (2015-2018), funded by the French National Research Agency (ANR), aims at improving the flood hazard assessment in floodplains in: 1) investigating in laboratory the hydrodynamic structure associated with extreme flood flows for various land occupations and flow discharge magnitudes; 2) assessing if the existing numerical modelling practices used for T ~ 100 years are still valid for extreme events with T > 1000 years, relying on the experimental data and on one field case. This paper reports some results obtained during the first year of the project.

This paper presents a data-driven hydrodynamic simulator based on the 1-D hydraulic solver dedicated to ood forecasting with lead time of an hour up to 24 hours. The goal of the study is to reduce uncertainties in the hydraulic model and thus provide more reliable simulation and forecast in real time for operational use by the national hydrometeorological ood forecasting center in France. Previous studies have shown that sequential assimilation of water level or discharge data allows to adjust the inows to the hydraulic network resulting in a signicant improvement of the discharge while leaving the water level state imperfect. Two strategies are proposed here to improve the water level-discharge relation in the model. At rst, a modeling strategy consists in improving the description of the river bed geometry using topographic and bathymetric measurements. Secondly, an inverse modeling strategy proposes to locally correct friction coecients in the river bed and the ood plain through the assimilation of in-situ water level measurements. This approach is based on an Extended Kalman lter algorithm that sequentially assimilates data to infer the upstream and lateral inows at rst and then the friction coecients. It provides a time varying correction of the hydrological boundary conditions and hydraulic parameters. The merits of both strategies are demonstrated on the Marne catchment in France for eight validation ood events and the January 2004 ood event is used as an illustrative example throughout the paper. The Nash-Sutclie criterion for water level is improved from 1 *Manuscript Click here to download Manuscript: JOH_article_Habert.pdf Click here to view linked References 0.135 to 0.832 for a 12-hour forecast lead time with the data assimilation strategy. These developments have been implemented at the SAMA SPC (local ood forecasting service in the Haute-Marne French department) and used for operational forecast since 2013. They were shown to provide an ecient tool for evaluating ood risk and to improve the ood early warning system. Complementary with the deterministic forecast of the hydraulic state, an estimation of an uncertainty range is given relying on o-line and on-line diagnosis. The possibilities to further extend the control vector while limiting the computational cost and equinality problem are nally discussed.

Fluvial deposits Channel adjustment Dikes (levees) Oxbow lakes Dike breach ponds (wielen) Borrow pits Lower Mississippi River Rhine River US Army Corps of Engineers 1928 Mississippi River and Tributaries Act Room for the River Flood management alters fundamental fluvial processes that have geomorphic consequences for rivers and floodplains. The Lower Mississippi and Rhine Rivers (The Netherlands) are two important examples of intensively regulated large rivers. Understanding the magnitude and direction of change caused by flood management requires a long-term perspective. This is particularly true of large lowland fluvial systems because of substantial lag-times required for adjustment to be manifest in the floodplain geomorphology. This study is a historical analysis and synthesis of the impacts of flood management on the Lower Mississippi and Rhine Rivers (The Netherlands), and investigates the interrelations of flood management with floodplain geomorphology. Although flood management varies between the Rhine and Mississippi on many accounts, the actual techniques of flood (and river) management are somewhat similar, and primarily include dikes, groynes, cutoffs, and bank protection. The implementation and history of these specific types of activities, however, varies considerably. Historical flood management along the Lower Mississippi can be characterized as abrupt, with the major options imposed within about five decades, while historical flood management along the Rhine River in The Netherlands is characterized as incremental and adaptive, with the major options imposed over about eight centuries. Conversely, modern flood management plans are implemented much more promptly along the Dutch Rhine than the Lower Mississippi. Changes to the Lower Mississippi include channel adjustment (width and incision) caused by meander bend cutoffs. The majority of the knickpoint incision in response to cutoffs occurred by 1963. Channel adjustment in some reaches is likely constrained by the presence of resistant alluvium and lithology. Floodplain geomorphic changes include the creation of new oxbow lakes within an embanked floodplain. Embanked floodplain sedimentation of oxbow lakes created from the 1928 Mississippi River & Tributaries Act have rapidly infilled, with 67% of the lake area converted to wetlands. In comparison, older oxbow lakes located outside of the embanked floodplain have undergone much lower amounts of infilling, averaging 37% of oxbow lake area converted to wetlands. The floodplain geomorphology is further modified by numerous large floodplain borrow pits and the selective removal of fine-grained deposits, primarily created for dike (levee) construction and maintenance. The Dutch Rhine has been managed for flooding for over eight centuries and exhibits specific types of humanized embanked floodplain geomorphology that require a greater period of adjustment. Dike breaches create ponds (wielen) and sandy splay-like deposits, which represent distinctive anthro-geomorphic environments along the margins of embanked floodplains. Channel stabilization by groynes and dikes has resulted in the formation of new floodplains along Rhine distributaries. The trapping of flood sediments within the embanked floodplain has resulted in aggradation that has reduced the inundation capacity of the embanked floodplain. This geomorphic alteration reduced the effectiveness of the existing flood management infrastructure and has stimulated a change towards a new flood management approach designed to "work with the river". The major conclusions are placed within a conceptual model, and illustrate that; 1. in many instances specific flood management options were constrained by the type of floodplain deposit; 2. geomorphic adjustment to flood management occurs along a time-space continuum; 3. flood management initiates positive feedbacks with unintended geomorphic consequences that require further management options to minimize flood risk.

Flood maps (referred to as flood risk maps) are developed for planning purposes and the needs of insurance companies. They usually map the flood with a 100-year recurrence interval (Q p 1%, i.e. discharge of probability of occurrence p = 1%), or flooding during the largest historically recorded flood. Typically these maps identify the zone of highest hazard, the so-called flood path, which is where construction is forbidden, and a zone of high hazard, i.e. the area between the flood path and the edge of the Q p 1% flood. In this study the assessment of the flood waters between the flood protection dykes of a reach of Vistula River was made using a one-dimensional hydraulic model and a Digital Elevation Model (DEM). The ordinates of water level for the Vistula were determined with the HEC-RAS model, assuming conditions of a steady state flow with a given probability of exceedence. The flood zones obtained from the simulations indicate that a significant part of the town is situated i...

This study analyzed recent extreme weather events in Rwanda with emphasis on drought during March-May (MAM) season using Z-index. Composite analysis identified the years 2009 and 2010 as the most recent dry and wet years respectively. Analysis of the interanual variability over the period of 1981-2010 shows thatapproximately 30% and 27% of the observed rainfall events were drought and flood cases, respectively. The mean MAM rainfall ranges from 90 to 180 mm in the wet year (2009), whereas during the dry year (2010), rainfall was poorly distributed both in space and time.The dry year experienced generally dry easterly winds, with almost uniformly increasing positive wind speed variation with height.The diagnosis of the evolution of Mascarene High (MH) ridge shows that during the dry year,the ridge is anomalously displaced to the westof its normal position, leading to rainfall deficit over the entire eastern Africa. The dry year exhibited a wide spread moisture divergence anomaly at low level. The noted circulation anomalies associated with the dry event are important in future monitoring of occurrence of drought.

The FLIRE DSS is a web-based Decision Support System for the combined forest and flood risk management and planning. State of the art tools and models have been used in order to enable Civil Protection agencies and local stakeholders to take advantage of web based DSS with no need of local complex infrastructure and maintenance. Civil protection agencies can predict the behavior of a fire event using real time data and in that way to plan its efficient elimination. Also, they can implement "what-if" scenarios for areas prone to fire and thus develop plans for forest fire management. Flood services include flood maps and flood-related warnings; these become available to relevant authorities for visualization and further analysis on a daily basis. Real time weather data from ground stations provide the necessary inputs for the calculation of the fire model in real time and a high resolution weather forecast grid support flood modeling and "what-if" scenarios for the fire modeling. The innovations of the FLIRE DSS are the use of common Earth Observation (EO) data as the backbone of the system to produce data for the support of fire and flood models, the common use of weather related information, the distributed architecture of the system and the web-based access of it with no need for installation of dedicated software. All these can be accessed by all means of computer sources like PC, laptop, Smartphone and tablet either by normal network connection or by using 3G and 4G cellular network. The latter is important for the accessibility of the FLIRE DSS during firefighting or rescue operations during flood events. FLIRE DSS can be easily transferred to other areas with similar characteristics due to its robust architecture and its flexibility.

We quantified sediment-water interface and water column nitrogen (N) transformation rates seasonally over the course of a year that incorporated a major storm event and a period of prolonged riverine base flow in Copano Bay, Texas, a shallow, productive estuary in the western Gulf of Mexico. We calculated daily rates of gross primary production (GPP), community respiration (CR), and net ecosystem production (NEP) in Copano Bay to examine carbon (C) cycling over the course of the year. These metrics of estuarine ecosystem function indicated that the estuary switched from a net sink for N during floods to a net source of N during droughts while sustaining high rates of primary production throughout the year. The estuary became a net sink for N as a result of increased denitrification rates following a storm event. Both GPP and CR increased immediately following a flood event, and the system was driven to net heterotrophy. Copano Bay became a net source of N during periods of prolonged base flow via increased N fixation rates. Internal N cycling became increasingly important during periods of base flow, including increased rates of dissimilatory nitrate reduction to ammonium. This internal N cycling sustained production during periods of drought, when GPP < CR. Both CR and NEP were linked to nutrient export from the inflowing rivers. N and C cycles were tightly linked but became decoupled briefly as a result of inputs of nutrients and organic matter during the period after a major storm event.

In order to save the lives of a people, identification of the area and rescue team is needed. Along with a trained rescue team a quick and relevant intimation system is also needed so that the rescue operation can be carried out quickly. In this study, we propose a web based and Android based Flood Rescue System. Flood Rescue System collects data from user from the affected site and analyses the data to detect the disastrous situation. After knowing the location of affected area, the Flood Rescue System finds out shortest path from affected area to the current position of rescue team and provides the path to the rescue team.

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Summary: This paper presents an outline of a possible solution of an intended expert system for real time operation for flood prevention of rivers and river canals in Vojvodina Serbia. The system should enable dispatchers to make operating decisions on their own in dialogue with the computer. After a brief presentation of the past floods in Serbia the paper considers possible types of expert systems, and the problem which of the existing ES types should be taken as a base for the water flow management in some crises situations as floods or aridity. Every spring, when snow melts on mountains and rivers grow up, the story about the danger of flooding actualizes. During hot aridity summers, with droughts, stories about the regulation of water flows are top stories again. Five major rivers: the Danube, Sava, Tisa, Morava and Drina, with many larger and smaller tributaries run through Serbia. Average annual precipitations on the territory of Serbia are 734 mm, which is about 65 billion m...

Modeling of environmental factors in archaeological research leads to a better understanding of human interaction with landscapes. The strict selection of suitable settlement spots is controlled by various influencing parameters like landscape permeability, soil quality, flood risk and erosion, thus creating a collection of different location factors. Unfortunately, large-scale excavations of Early Medieval settlements in southern Germany are extremely rare. This article presents spatially analyzed and remotely sensed environmental data from the Merovingian settlement and graveyard complex at Lauchheim, Germany. Predictive modeling of potential landuse areas in heterogeneous regional settings allows the estimation of the range of human-environmental interaction, enabling the identification of possible settlement spots. Mapping of potential vulnerability can further encourage future research.

O objetivo deste trabalho é contribuir para avançar no conhecimento acerca do potencial do Modelo HAND para avaliação e monitoramento da expansão urbana da Região Metropolitana de Porto Alegre (RMPA) em áreas suscetíveis à inundação. Como procedimento metodológico foi utilizada a combinação de imagens de iluminação noturna com índices de vegetação NDVI do satélite Landsat. Para identificar as áreas suscetíveis à inundação, foi utilizado o Modelo HAND. Foi identificado um aumento de 22,15% da área urbana ocupada entre os anos 1985 e 2015. Com o Modelo HAND foi possível identificar que as novas ocupações urbanas estão situadas em cotas de até 2 metros de elevação em relação à drenagem mais próxima. Este dado evidencia que áreas identificadas como de expansão estão localizadas em cidades problemáticas do ponto de vista de inundações.

In this paper we developed and tested an integrated methodology for assessing direct and indirect economic impacts of flooding. The methodology combines a spatial analysis of damage to physical stocks with a general economic equilibrium approach using a regionally-calibrated (to Italy) version of a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) global model. We applied the model to the 2000 Po river flood. To account for the uncertainty in the induced effects on regional economies, we explored three disruption and two recovery scenarios. The results prove that: i) indirect losses are a significant share of direct losses, and ii) the model is able to capture both positive and negative economic effects of a disaster in different areas of the same country. The assessment of indirect impacts is essential for a full understanding of the economic outcomes of natural disasters.

Flood is one of the most frequently occurring and devastating disasters in Nepal. Several locations in Nepal are at high risk of flood, which requires proper guidance on early warning and safe evacuation of people to emergency locations through optimal routes to minimize fatalities. However, the information is limited to flood hazard mapping only. This study provides a comprehensive flood susceptibility and evacuation route mapping in the Siraha Municipality of Nepal where a lot of flood events have occurred in the past and are liable to happen in the future. The flood susceptibility map was created using a Geographic Information System (GIS)-based Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) over nine flood conditioning factors. It showed that 47% of the total area was highly susceptible to flood, and the remaining was in the safe zone. The assembly points where people would gather for evacuation were selected within the susceptible zone through manual digitization while the emergency shelte...

A catastrophic flooding of the Black Sea basin was proposed to have occurred during its reconnection to the ocean in the early Holocene. Possible cultural consequences of the flood include the migration of Neolithic farmers from around the Black Sea towards central Europe as well as the creation of flood myths. Stratigraphic and paleo-geomorphologic information from Danube delta aided by radiocarbon ages on articulated mollusks constrain the level in the Black Sea before the marine reconnection to ca 30 m below the present sea level rather than 80 m or lower. If the flood occurred at all, the sea level increase and the flooded area during the reconnection were significantly smaller than previously proposed.

The collapse of the Bronze Age Harappan, one of the earliest urban civilizations, remains an enigma. Urbanism flourished in the western region of the Indo-Gangetic Plain for approximately 600 y, but since approximately 3,900 y ago, the total settled area and settlement sizes declined, many sites were abandoned, and a significant shift in site numbers and density towards the east is recorded. We report morphologic and chronologic evidence indicating that fluvial landscapes in Harappan territory became remarkably stable during the late Holocene as aridification intensified in the region after approximately 5,000 BP. Upstream on the alluvial plain, the large Himalayan rivers in Punjab stopped incising, while downstream, sedimentation slowed on the distinctive mega-fluvial ridge, which the Indus built in Sindh. This fluvial quiescence suggests a gradual decrease in flood intensity that probably stimulated intensive agriculture initially and encouraged urbanization around 4,500 BP. Howev...

In this work, a novel approach for the automated transfer of Bounding Box (BB) and mask labels across different channels on multilens cameras is presented. For that purpose, the proposed method combines the well-known phase correlation method with a refinement process. In the initial step, images are aligned by localising the peak of intensity obtained in the spatial domain after performing the cross-correlation process in the frequency domain. The second step consists of obtaining the optimal transformation through an iterative process that maximises the IoU (Intersection over Union) metric. The results show that the proposed method enables the transfer of labels across different lenses on a camera with an accuracy of over 90% in the majority of cases, with a processing time of just 65 ms. Once the transformations have been obtained, artificial RGB images are generated for labelling purposes, with the objective of transferring this information into each of the other lenses. This work will facilitate the use of this type of camera in a wider range of fields, beyond those of satellite or medical imagery, thereby enabling the labelling of even invisible objects in the visible spectrum.

Typical disaster flooding and flash floods in Malaysia. Floods occur especially during the wet season within the geographical region area which is especially influenced by the northeast monsoon. So the sampling study was conducted in March 2019 in normal season. Cross-sectional measurements involving the measurement of river width, river depth and velocity were conducted at both sampling times. The main objective of this study was to identify the pattern of rainfall distribution and river discharge rate in the River Basin Relative when the flash flood event occurred. The average seasonal discharge value in the normal Relau River (Upstream) is 0.04 m3s-1, Relau River (Midstream) is 0.57 m3s-1, Relau River (Downstream) is 0.35 m3s-1. Whereas for Ara River (Midstream) is 0.78 m3s-1, Ara River (Downstream) is 0.19 m3s-1) and Kluang River (Upstream) is 0.18 m3s-1. The estimated value for flash flood shows that total water and sewer capacity that occurred during the flash floods was to in...

The northeast monsoon flood phenomenon is a natural disaster especially around East Peninsular Malaysia such as Kelantan. The main objective of this study is to identify the impact of the northeastern monsoon flood of Malaysia on the tourism sector. The climatology factors for tourism sector especially for the coastal zone tourism segment. Large floods as in 2014 have seen a lot of destroying local areas. Both the government and the non-government should formulate strategies to address the flood issue as a process of improvement for the future. Flood effects such as damage to building infrastructure, coastal beauty, facilities, interrupted services and tourist attractions. The findings show that floods that are among the most frequent climate change in all countries in Malaysia. However, the impact of this disaster will not only affect flood-damaged areas but also indirectly affect the growth of the tourism sector as it requires a reconstruction process. The study was conducted to i...

Flood is the most common type of disaster in Peninsular Malaysia. In December 2014, a major flood event occurred in Pahang River that recorded the worst flood ever hit Pahang River Basin and Malaysia generally. Twelve sampling station has been chosen which covered of upstream, middle stream and downstream parts of Pahang River. This study focuses on scrutinizing the processes of the river geomorphology changes using geographic information system and other techniques. Those stations are Jerantut Feri, JPS Tembeling, Chenor and Pekan. The 3D modelling surface showed that the bathymetric shape of Pahang River bed was severely affected by the flood due to collapse of river banks, land use changes and anthropogenic activities. However, other stations are also affected by the flood but it is not significant according to cluster group constructed. Total suspended solid was classified into three group using cluster analysis. The contributors of sedimentation problems in Pahang River are from unsustainable land use such as urbanization, agricultural activities, industrialization which are trapping the bed sediments and river band erosion caused by flood phenomenon. Sinuosity index (SI) of Pahang River shows that high percentage of changes occurred in the upstream at Tembeling River and Jelai River with the highest percentage recorded at 45%. SI recorded at middle stream shows a significant change with the percentage of 20.7%. While at downstream, the SI recorded three significant changes from 16.0% to 20.3%. Based on statistical analysis, significant changes with moderate correlation in R squared value at R 2 = 0.6669 was obtained between SI changes and water level that occurred from 2010 to 2015. Pahang River geomorphology change analysis and river bed geometric analysis are very important in order to decide the best mitigating measure and management plan that will overcome the biggest problem of Pahang River, that is, flood -that occurs every year. Generally, this study is very important to gather information on the effect of 2014 major flood in Pahang River in order to manage the Basin of Tropical River. In future, for mitigation measure, alternative management is proposed for Pahang River Maintenance such as service of natural flood ponds and flood mitigation projects.

River structures such as bridges and spur dykes cause water level rise during flood situations. Flood analysis considering this effect is very important for an accurate prediction of inundation flow. In this study, a numerical model is proposed and applied to a river channel with river structures and a river channel connected with floodplain. The numerical model is carried out on the unstructured meshes with finite volume method. The standard k-ε turbulence model and the volume of fluid (VOF) method are adopted for the turbulence closure and the free-surface modeling, respectively. The numerical simulations are carried out about the river channel with structures and the river connected with a floodplain. The proposed model is compared with the results of the experiment and another simulation. The results show tendencies of the overflow from the river and effects by the river structures with reasonable accuracy.

An integrated model was developed by combining three separate models: (i) model of seepage flow, (ii) model of slope stability and (iii) model of dam surface erosion and flow to predict flood/debris flow hydrograph resulted from failure of landslide dam by overtopping and sudden sliding. The main advantage of an integrated model is that it can detect failure mode due to either overtopping or sliding based on initial and boundary conditions. The proposed model is tested for three different experimental cases of landslide dam failure due to overtopping and sliding, and reasonably reproduced the resulting flood/Debris flow hydrograph.

The understanding of behavior and mechanism of debris flow, and the study of preventive measures are very important in order to manage the sediment disaster in the river basin and prevent the downstream hazards. A check dam is commonly used for preventing the sediment disaster due to debris flow by storing the harmful sediment discharge. The numerical simulations and experiments have been carried out to investigate the mechanism of debris flow deposition process upstream of a check dam, and flushing out of deposited sediment due to erosion process by a normal scale flood flow. A new deposition equation to calculate debris flow deposition upstream of a check dam is also developed. The simulations and experiments have been performed using closed type and grid type check dams.

In recent years climate change and retreating glaciers constitute a major hazard in the Himalaya of South Asia or glacier regions of the world. Glacial lakes are rapidly developing or increasing due to climate change, which may cause the outburst of the lake. The outburst discharge from the glacial lake can cause catastrophic flooding and disasters in downstream area. Therefore, it is necessary to investigate the impact of climate change on glacial lakes and to understand the behavior of the glacial lakes. In this study, the field assessment of Tsho Rolpa Glacial Lake in the Himalaya of Nepal has been presented and the impact of climate change on this glacial lake has been discussed. The Tsho Rolpa Glacial Lake is the largest and most potentially dangerous glacial lake in Nepal. A numerical model has been also developed for computing the characteristics of glacial lake outburst due to moraine dam failure by seepage and water overtopping. The simulated results are compared with the experimental results.

Glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) may cause floods of great magnitudes in the downstream river reaches. About 80% of GLOFs (based on 20 cases with known failure mechanisms) were initiated by displacement waves from ice avalanches that collapsed into the lakes from hanging or calving glaciers and rock avalanches. Therefore, an integrated model is essential for the i) prediction of waves generated by ice/rock avalanche, ii) prediction of outflow hydrograph due to waves overtopping and erosion of moraine dam and iii) flow and sediment routing in the downstream for flood risk assessment. Toward development of an integrated model, this study focuses on experimental study of moraine dam failure due to waves overtopping and erosion. Extensive laboratory experiments are carried out by varying size of ice/rock avalanche, shape of the dam, dam material and lake water level. The outflow hydrographs produced by waves overtopping and erosion consist multiple peaks. For the same falling block and lake water level, the initial peaks are similar for both triangular and trapezoidal dams. However, magnitude and timing of subsequent peaks are different according to dam shapes and dam materials.

Many floods caused by heavy rainfalls and typhoons hit Japan in recent years, and some floods attacked fully urbanized areas. Tokyo, Nagoya and Fukuoka were inundated by urban floods, and some parts of flood water intruded into underground spaces. During the floods, underground shopping arcades and subway stations were inundated. The inundation in underground space is one of the problems to resolve urgently. One of effective measures to reduce the damage of flood disaster is quick evacuation from the underground spaces. In this paper, evacuation from underground spaces has been tested by using real scale models of staircases and doors. From the results, it is found that water depth of 0.3m on the ground is a critical depth for evacuation from underground space through staircases and 0.4m deep in front of the door is the limit to open the door.

Natural disasters, particularly hydro-meteorological (climate-related) disasters such as droughts, tsunamis, hurricanes, typhoons and floods, have increased in prevalence and severity in recent decades. During these disasters, the most pressing relief needs are food, water, sanitation and shelter. While relief organizations are increasingly utilizing the power of social media for informational tools such as disaster response crisis mapping, social media-derived relief efforts initiated by the general public have also increased in popularity. Compared to relief organizations, which have greater access to resources, relief efforts initiated by the general public are typically less organized and more personal and exploratory in nature. This teaching case provides a detailed examination of grassroots uses of social media aimed at soliciting disaster-related assistance. The case study describes three relief effort initiatives that solicited support for victims of the most recent Malaysianflood.

In Central Europe, river flooding has been recently recognized as a major hazard, in particular after the 1997 Odra /Oder flood, the 2001 Vistula flood, and the most destructive 2002 deluge on the Labe/Elbe. Major recent floods in central Europe are put in perspective and their common elements are identified. Having observed that flood risk and vulnerability are likely to have grown in many areas, one is curious to understand the reasons for growth. These can be sought in socio-economic domain (humans encroaching into floodplain areas), terrestrial systems (land-cover changes -urbanization, deforestation, reduction of wetlands, river regulation), and climate system. The atmospheric capacity to absorb moisture, its potential water content, and thus potential for intense precipitation, are likely to increase in a warmer climate. The changes in intense precipitation and high flows are examined, based on observations and projections. Study of projected changes in intense precipitation, using climate models, for several areas of central Europe, and in particular, for drainage basins of the upper Labe/Elbe, Odra/Oder, and Vistula is reported. Significant changes have been identified between future projections and the reference period, of relevance to flood hazard in areas, which have experienced severe recent floodings.

Unsteady-flow simulation of the dam break is performed using HEC-RAS and results are mapped using the RAS mapping. Inundation mapping of water surface profile, Velocity and depth results from dam failure models and provides a preliminary assessment of the flood hazard and provides insight for emergency preparedness. The Unsteady process is for gathering and preparing data, creating an unsteady-flow model in HEC-RAS, entry of dam breach parameters, performing a dam failure analysis, and mapping of the flood progression. Break parameters prediction, the understanding of dam break mechanics, peak outflow prediction were shown as the essential for the dam break analysis and flood mapping. The results show that dam break is a complicated and comprehensive process involving lots of principles. Koga Dam break due to overtopping elongates the time period of high water surface level, which increases the duration of risk. The design Probable Maximum Flood (PMF) is 570 m 3 /sec statically estimated and PMF also estimated in HEC-HMS model after calibration and validation is 537m 3 /sec. The calibration result of HEC-HMS model is the Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency criteria for the calibration N=0.543 coefficient of determination (r 2 ) of 0.7334 daily based. Validation result is the Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency N=0.6 and coefficient of determination (r 2 )=0.8.The result of the simulation under overtopping failure showed that the inundated area surrounding Koga River downstream of the dam is about 10.2 km 2 with maximum flood depth is 16 m, water surface velocity ranges from 0.00 to 11 m/s. Most of floodplain areas varied from middle to high flood hazard level, and only few areas had very high level of flood hazard especially on river side. Whereas under piping failure inundated area is 9.1 km 2 with maximum flood depth is 13 m, water surface velocity ranges from 0.00 to 6 m/s. This flood affect the downstream town Wetit Abay town settlement near Koga river and irrigation canal also affected. Dam break has a greater impact on the downstream location where is closer to the dam is high flood depth in accordance with the comparison of the hydrographs at different downstream locations. The structural flood control measurement to be recommended is to construct flood dike and flood gate. The non-structural measurement one is to improve watershed management and socialization of flood awareness.