East Asian International Politics

We are living at a time when people appear to have become more aware of the power of narratives in international politics. Understanding how narratives exercise power is therefore more pertinent than ever. This special issue develops the concept of narrative power for international relations research by focusing on East Asia—the region that has been at the centre of debates about international power shifts since the 1990s. This introduction seeks to elucidate and define four key binary distinctions: (a) narrative power as understood from the perspective of an individualist versus a narrative ontology; (b) narrative power as explanandum versus explanans; (c) narrative power as more prone to continuity or change; and (d) the scholar as a detached observer of narrative power versus the scholar as a narrative entrepreneur and a potential wielder of power. Informed by the individual contributions, the introduction demonstrates how and with what implications research on narrative power can negotiate and traverse these binary distinctions.

Using the framework of centripetal and centrifugal force, this article analyzes alternating periods of peace and conflict in South Korea-Japan mutual perceptions since 1998 when the two nations took unprecedented conciliatory actions. Centripetal force is comprised of political leaders' reconciliation initiatives, restrained historical/territorial disputes, and common security threats. Centrifugal force incorporates heated historical/territorial disputes, political leaders' use of those disputes for their political purposes, and divergent security priorities. This article suggests that top political leaders in both nations can play a significant role in improving or aggravating mutual perceptions between the two neighbors. However, political leaders' conciliatory initiatives are a necessary but insufficient condition in reconciling the two former adversary states.

This thesis has two main aims. The first of these is to study available methodologies for researching the future in the social sciences, and particularly in political science and international relations (IR). To be more specific, it attempts to determine whether it is possible to establish, given the present state of scientific knowledge, a relatively rigorous method for examining the futures of socio-political phenomena. The second aim is to set out to use the methodological approach(es) established in the first part of the study to examine the future of China, both as an applied example of the use of the methodology as well as an end in itself within IR’s sub-field of China studies. Thus, the thesis fits within the areas of future studies and China studies, but with a particular focus on the implications of the research for political science and IR within the broader social sciences.
The research reveals that the most suitable candidate for researching socio-political futures, at least until computer modelling and complexity theory are refined enough to examine the future with greater accuracy (if this is possible), is scenario construction, given that it deals not with prediction of definite outcomes, but with future possibilities. Since scenario construction, however, is a faute de mieux methodology (meaning that, despite inadequacies, it is less inadequate than the alternatives), there is a need to develop it further. The thesis’ primary research attempts to do this by taking and adapting Delphi method’s premise that consensus expert opinion can, at least to a degree, act as a counterweight to individual bias, and thereby constructing scenarios on the basis of a typology of expert forecasts. The main part of the research thus focuses on constructing scenarios of China’s future out of a typology of expert forecasts concerning China’s development up to 2050. The ultimate goals are to assess the degree of success of the resulting scenario construction project, and to develop a basis for further research into both China’s future in particular and the study of socio-political futures in general.