Kazakhstan 2041 : the Next Twenty-Five Years

and the Stockholm-based Institute for Security and Development Policy. It is the first institution of its kind in Europe and North America, and is firmly established as a leading research and policy center, serving a large and diverse community of analysts, scholars, policy-watchers, business leaders, and journalists. The Joint Center is at the forefront of research on issues of conflict, security, and development in the region. Through its applied research, publications, research cooperation, public lectures, and seminars, it functions as a focal point for academic, policy, and public discussion regarding the region.

2015

This article analyzes Kazakhstan’s security policy, in particular its main security documents: the Law on National Security, the Military Doctrine, and the Foreign Policy Concept. What does the practical application of these concepts, particularly toward the big actors Russia and China and to international organizations, tell us about Kazakh security policy? Overall, the conceptualized policy is largely reflected in practice. The biggest exceptions are found in the implementation of policy toward Russia. The pressure and possible threats of interference from Moscow form a hindrance for a fully independent foreign security policy by Astana. Furthermore, not military/security related measures but the implementation of political and social-economic reforms is essential to ensure the national security of Kazakhstan.

Executive Summary Kazakhstan has been remarkably successful in managing its transition since 1991, with GDP per capita up from U$1,500 in 1998 to nearly U$13,000 in 2013, on the basis of rich natural resources, combined with prudent macro-economic management. Government investment has improved infrastructure and social services, and the country has made significant progress in human development. In this country the size of Western Europe, however, social and regional disparities are widening rather than narrowing and Kazakhstan faces numerous complex development challenges in the fields of governance and sustainable socio-economic management. This Country Situation Analysis is an independent UN assessment of the development situation and critical issues, in light of goals agreed at UN global conferences, treaty obligations, and relevant national strategies, above all Kazakhstan 2050. Once the analysis is finalized, the UN Country Team will draft its next strategic framework in close cooperation with government and non-government partners. The analysis is based on a desk review of over 100 studies, triangulated with input collected via an online survey and discussions with more than 120 internal and external stakeholders. The report employs the five pillars defined in the post-2015 consultations to provide a structure for the overview of development challenges. Following a brief update on progress with the current UNDAF (2010-2015) and a summary of lessons learned, this report concludes with recommendations regarding priority development challenges. The Government launched “Kazakhstan 2050” in December 2012 as its new national-development policy directive; in a massive effort to adjust institutions and policies, the Government has been reorganized, including e.g. the establishment of a Ministry of Regional Development. Civil service reforms have included merit-based appointments and promotion. While the overall situation of freedoms and rights has been portrayed very negatively abroad, the Government has taken steps that appear to open (carefully controlled) space for civil society. Inclusive Social Development – serving those who need it most: While Kazakhstan has achieved and surpassed most MDGs, major challenges remain, especially in terms of making development truly inclusive, across fault lines such as gender, regional and social disparities. Persons with disabilities have been receiving more attention in official statistics, but they may be marginalized in their communities. Limited access to health care for vulnerable populations is making it difficult to contain the spread of diseases, including TB, STDs and HIV. The country’s overall health outcomes (measured e.g. in life expectancy) lag behind its rapidly increasing income. The Government has implemented reforms, but efforts need to continue to ensure access for the most vulnerable. Special attention needs to be also paid to youth issues. The concept of state youth policy identifies threats and risks including pressure on traditional value systems; paternalism and social infantilism; consumerism; and risky / unhealthy life-styles. In education, Kazakhstan has made major strides, but the full effects will take time. Aspects particularly deserving attention are VET and life skills, including reproductive health. Access, especially for marginalized groups such as people without official residence status, and quality, particularly outside well-resourced urban centres remain key challenges. Equitable Economic Development – making sure the fairy tale is true for all: Labour force participation increased from 58% in 2000 to 68% in 2011 while unemployment was cut from 13% to 5%. In these statistics, however, a third of those employed is described as “self-employed,” representing rural inhabitants with access to land who consider themselves unemployed. The proportion of women in these marginalized and vulnerable sectors is much higher than that of men. The share of the population living in poverty (USD2.5 PPP per capita per day) fell from 41% in 2001 to 4% in 2009. Using a higher poverty line (USD5 PPP) that is more appropriate for countries with a higher level of income per capita, some 42% of Kazakhstan’s population are still living in poverty; if the poverty line is increased to US$6 PPP, the poverty rate increases to 58%. The real issues only reveal themselves once one looks at disaggregated data, particularly in terms of gender and at the sub-oblast level. The share of children living in families with per capita consumption below the subsistence minimum increased from 33% (aged 0-14) in 2010 to 39% in 2012. Poverty is concentrated heavily among large households with small children and single parent families. Good Governance – a Kazakhstan of the people by the people for the people: Apparently trust in leadership and parliament remains relatively strong, but institutional and governance performance are very weak by international standards. Some institutional reforms are underway. President Nazarbayev’s 2014 State of the Nation Address provided further guidance on the 2050 Strategy, stressing the need to improve public institutions’ efficiency by promoting fair competition, justice and the rule of law, and strengthening interactions with NGOs and the business sector. Kazakhstan acceded to and ratified a wide range of fundamental international covenants, conventions and protocols – more than 40 in all. The Government also adopted several relevant programmes, including the Legal Policy Concept Paper for 2010-2020, the Gender Equality Strategy 2006-2016, a concept on developing the juvenile justice system, state programmes on fighting corruption, transnational organised crime, civil society development, national heritage, etc., and expressed the intention to develop a national human rights action plan. Environmental Sustainability – for a healthier present and future: As part of the Soviet legacy, Kazakhstan has inherited some of the most daunting environmental challenges in the world. Among the factors highlighted in the Government’s own analysis, almost a third of Kazakhstan’s agricultural land is either degraded or under serious threat. Currently, the economy is forecast to run short of 14 bcm of water by 2030 (a third of the current inflow). Environmental contamination has had a devastating impact on health in Kazakhstan. Some 40,000 children under ten are estimated to suffer from neurological diseases resulting from lead poisoning. Kazakhstan ranks second in terms of organic contamination among the countries in the region. Air pollution in the cities is estimated to cause 6,000 premature deaths per year. With no integrated waste management, 97% of solid municipal waste ends up in uncontrolled landfills. To address these complex challenges, the Government has adopted the Concept for the Transformation of Kazakhstan toward a Green Economy and corresponding national legislation. Regional and international cooperation – Kazakhstan as a donor and a hub: Kazakhstan would like to assume more of a regional leadership role. Trade has been one of the main drivers of cooperation, with intraregional trade expanding significantly in terms of volume. Connectivity between Kazakhstan, Kyrgyz Republic, and Tajikistan has increased. There are growing links with Afghanistan. And there has been rapid growth in economic ties with some of the big neighbours, especially China and Russia. Since 2011 the Government has been planning to set up its own agency for international development, KazAID, to render assistance to neighbouring countries. Kazakhstan has initiated the creation of a sub-regional multilateral diplomacy hub in Almaty to help address regional issues in Central Asia, the South Caucasus and Afghanistan. The hub strengthens Kazakhstan’s international standing and bolsters stability in the region. Lessons learned from the current UNDAF: The main strengths of the current UNDAF process have been that the Government has been engaged, not least via the annual reviews; the UN has used it as a basis for joint advocacy and programming; and the UNDAF has facilitated information management and coordination (though more could be done). Among the challenges that the next framework should address are that monitoring was difficult, as the results matrix was seen as a one-off product rather than a day-to-day tool in programme management; the roles & responsibilities were not operationalized sufficiently; routine demand for information on the UNDAF was limited; and the Kazakhstan’s plans to be a regional leader were not explicitly framed in the existing UNDAF. Conclusions: The UN is well placed to help Kazakhstan achieve a future with a healthy population, a thriving green economy and guaranteed rights for all, through economic, social and political modernization; with an inclusive society, in which the rights of all people, especially the most vulnerable, are protected; with stakeholders at all levels enabled to be accountable for equal rights for all; and with effective multilateral and regional cooperation, particularly in the area of humanitarian and development assistance. The UN could base its support on a concept of “eQuality,” combining equality, quality and e-governance to boost effectiveness and accountability. One of the main changes proposed in line with Kazakhstan’s emerging as a donor and very likely attaining HIC status well before 2020, would be to think of the next UN strategy in terms of a partnership framework rather than a UN Development Assistance Framework.

In the last few decades human security has evolved as an international issue, affecting all the countries worldwide. All the nations, organizations, regional as well as internationals have taken strong measures in order to cater the issue of human security. One of the measures taken being establishment of regional and sub-regional organizations, by the Central Asian countries. But the regional cooperation is working on a very slow place, leading to the conclusion that there are many conflicting interests and disagreements, which exist between the Central Asian neighboring countries. Robert Keohane has very aptly pointed out that cooperation between neighboring nations cannot be defined in terms of absence of any conflict between them, but as a process which uses this conflict to initiate mutual adjustment. Since 2001, from the time of removal from power of the Taliban, theatrically many multilateral efforts have been made but hardly anything is done in practice. On the other hand, bilateral relations have developed and worked effectively among other Central Asian neighbours and have provided with considerable number of examples of partnership and solidarity in promoting human security across the entire Central Asia(Keohane 2005) .

Journal of International Affairs and Politics of the National Pedagogical University named after Abai (KAZNPU) in Almaty, Kazakhstan; Vol. 65, Issue No.2, 2021

This paper conducts a comparative analysis between Israel and Central Asia with a focus on the country of Kazakhstan in terms of sources and scope of the threat of terrorism, their specialized counterterrorist units and different counter-terrorism strategies ranging from the role of the community, media, financial and local legislative approaches. The paper concludes with the highlights stating that states should not only fight militarily the threat of terrorism, but rather with smart, flexible and comprehensible whole-government approaches. This includes effective law enforcement measures, toughened laws, reforming trust-building measures through neighborhood policies and developing a strong nationhood. While on the one hand Israel has been in a war-ridden conflicts since gaining its independence, Kazakhstan on the other hand as a post-soviet state has a bit differing and complex issues to deal with that concern problems related to building a post-soviet political identity and creating a stable and effective bridge between a unified political and comprehensive social response to the threat of terrorism.

Journal of Advanced Research in Law and Economics, 2017

The cooperation with the countries of Central Asia in the field of regional security has been one of the important foreign policy priorities of Kazakhstan. The threats to security in Central Asia remain to be the growing influence of Islamic radicalism, instability in Afghanistan, illicit drug trafficking, etc. This paper focuses on the role of Kazakhstan in maintaining security in the region of Central Asia. The authors examine a wide range of regional security issues and analyze the foreign policy initiatives of Kazakhstan. Kazakhstan’s initiatives on strengthening the nuclear nonproliferation regime have been analyzed in the paper. The authors analyze the relationship between Kazakhstan and organizations as NATO, OSCE, CSTO and SCO.

Central Asian Survey, 2005

This collection of University of World Economy& Diplomacy comprises the research papers of the prominent and young analysts sharing their scholarly view* on whole plethora of issues of regional and global agenda. In this volume we proudly introduce and highly honored by contribution of our distinguished international experts for sharing their scholarly views on different issues of global and regional agenda. Most of them are profound and prolific authors representing leading research institutions worldwide in analyses of contemporary politics and trending issues of International Security. Among them Martha Brill Olcott, a Visiting Professor, Michigan State University Professor Emerita, Colgate University, USA, Muhammad Amir Rana, a Director of PAK Institute for Peace Studies (PIPS), Pakistan, Kuzmina Elena,PhD, a Head of Sector of the Center ofPost-Soviet researches Primakov National Research Institute of World Economy and International Relations, Russian Academy of Sciences, Dr. Anita Sengupta, a Senior Researcher, Calcutta Research Group Visiting Fellow, Observer Research Foundation,Dr. Adil Khan and Muhammad Ijaz, from International Islamic University, Islamabad,Pakistan. Uzbek national experts are presented by group of leading scholars and analysts, conducting their researches at the University of World Economy& Diplomacy, such as Prof. Nihola Tulyaganova, Senior Lecturer on Regional Studies, Ulugbeck A. Khasanov, PhD, Head of Contemporary Conflicts & Regional Security Study Laboratory, Botir Ochilov, PhD, Associate Professor, Leading Lecturer on Geopolitics, Akram Umarov,Researcher, DSc. candidate, Akmaljohn Abdullayev, Researcher, DSc. candidate, Madina Abdullaeva, MA Researcher at IR Department and others. Most of the papers in this volume reflect original and rarely considered aspects of modern development. The work of our research team have turned into a serious result in shaping complex approach to different topics concerning international relations, drawing special interest of expert community and clearly indicate the significance of such efforts.

2004

Kazakhstan is becoming an important power in Central Asia by virtue of its large territory, ample natural resources, and strategic location. However, it faces political, ethnic, economic, and environmental challenges to its stability and integrity. After the terrorist attacks on the United States on September 11, 2001, Kazakhstan granted overflight rights for U.S.-led coalition actions in Afghanistan, and in 2003 provided some troops for post-conflict rebuilding in Iraq. This report may be updated. Related products include CRS Issue Brief IB93108, Central Asia, updated regularly.

DIIS Report, 2013