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What exactly is wrong with human extinction? 2020

2020, C. Schmidt-Petri and M. Schefczyk (eds.), Proceedings of the International Society for Utilitarian Studies, KIT Scientific Publishing

Abstract

Most people agree that human extinction would be bad. But competing moral theories disagree about why it would be bad and how bad it would be. These differences don’t emerge in implausible tales where one option leads to certain extinction. But they come to the fore in more mundane cases involving small risks of extinction. Extinction risks raise difficulties for both Consequentialists and Non-Consequentialists. Non-Consequentialists have difficulty explaining why extinction would be bad even if it harms no one. Consequentialists can easily explain the badness of extinction by citing the loss of future human happiness, but they then confront the objection that (due to the enormous number of future people who might otherwise exist) even the smallest risk of extinction must dominate our present ethical thinking. In this paper, I illustrate these differences between Consequentialism and Non-Consequentialism by asking how extinction risks impact on two representative theories: Rule Utilitarianism and Scanlonian Contractualism. I argue that even the most Consequentialist-friendly Contractualism must weigh the importance of extinction risks very differently from even the most moderate Rule Utilitarianism. Thinking about extinction thus puts pressure on Derek Parfit’s recent argument that Contractualism and Consequentialism can be reconciled. I close by exploring alternative approaches to extinction risk, including the possibility that human survival has some final value over-and-above the value of individual lives, and pluralist views that combine Contractualism and Utilitarianism.