Firms and workers: who fails in times of crisis?

NIMA Working Paper N. 61, 2016

We examine how the impact of the recent crises on firm performance, in terms of risk of shutdown, differed depending on firm size. We use a panel of linked employer-employee data covering the period 2002-2012 and investigate whether the effect of firm size varies over the business cycle and with the type of shock associated with two phases of economic contraction: the Financial Crisis and the Sovereign Debt Crisis. Our results show that smaller firms are more likely to shutdown than larger firms, with micro firms being nearly three times more likely to shutdown than large firms. However, within each size band, micro firms are found to experience at least similar rates of survival during the two crises, relative to large firms, to those observed in the pre-crisis period; while medium sized firms are found to be more vulnerable during the financial crisis period, but show more resilience during the sovereign debt crisis. Overall, however, the results suggest that during the sovereign debt crisis firms faced higher probability of closing than during the financial crisis.

International Journal of the Economics of Business, 2017

We examine how the impact of the recent crises on firm performance, in terms of risk of shutdown, differed depending on firm size. We use a panel of linked employer-employee data covering the period 2002-2012 and investigate whether the effect of firm size varies over the business cycle and with the type of shock associated with two phases of economic contraction: the Financial Crisis and the Sovereign Debt Crisis. Our results show that smaller firms are more likely to shutdown than larger firms, with micro firms being nearly three times more likely to shutdown than large firms. However, within each size band, micro firms are found to experience at least similar rates of survival during the two crises, relative to large firms, to those observed in the pre-crisis period; while medium sized firms are found to be more vulnerable during the financial crisis period, but show more resilience during the sovereign debt crisis. Overall, however, the results suggest that during the sovereign debt crisis firms faced higher probability of closing than during the financial crisis.

Small Business Economics, 2011

The current economic crisis has raised concerns about the persistent increasing duration of unemployment. Although lay-offs at large firms normally make headlines during crises, we still know little about the potential impact of firm size on firms' adjustment behavior under a crisis context. We study firm size effects on employment growth during economic slowdowns, using a rich microeconomic database for the 1988-2007 period in the Portuguese manufacturing industry. The results show that economic downturns impacted negatively upon firm growth. This negative impact is found to be higher for larger firms, either during or also immediately after crisis periods. Small and medium sized enterprises (SMEs) emerge as potential stabilizers in downturn periods. However, larger firms seem to be able to quickly recover from downturn periods.

Industry and Innovation, 2018

The crisis regarding the Euro area has caused several business closures, especially in the periphery of the EMU. In this paper, we use an original Italian firm-level dataset to determine why firms exit the market during times of economic crisis, paying particular attention to the role of intangibles. We argue that intangibles strengthen a firm's resilience, which improves the firm's ability to cope with adverse events and unexpected shocks. We obtain two main results: first, we show that the presence of intangibles significantly reduces the probability of firm exit, especially during the initial phase of the crisis; second, we find that financial constraints become more relevant than intangibles in explaining firm exit during the later stages of the crisis. Thus, the process of firm selection during the crisis has undergone a rapid transformation, with distortions that may lead even skilled firms to exit. Implications of these findings for EU recovery policies are discussed.

Small Business Economics

Recessions are complex events that create highly unpredictable and unstable business environments. When faced with such events, firm survival depends only limitedly on production efficiency. Rather, it depends on the skills and ability to cope with such complexity. In particular, we expect firms adopting a corporate strategy that makes relatively large use of skills and capabilities to deal with environmental complexity to be less likely to exit during a downturn than firms that do not. We test this hypothesis on the whole population of Italian manufacturing corporations using an open panel that covers the period 2001-2013. The results provide strong support for our hypotheses in the full sample and in the subsamples of small firms, thus suggesting that skill development can successfully empower smaller and more vulnerable firms. Managerial and policy implications are discussed.

2015

The crisis regarding the Euro area has caused several business closures, especially in the periphery of the EMU. In this paper, we use an original Italian firm-level dataset to determine why firms exit the market during times of economic crisis, paying particular attention to the role of intangibles. We argue that intangibles strengthen a firm’s resilience, which improves the firm’s ability to cope with adverse events and unexpected shocks. We obtain two main results: first, we show that the presence of intangibles significantly reduces the probability of firm exit, especially during the initial phase of the crisis; second, we find that financial constraints become more relevant than intangibles in explaining firm exit during the later stages of the crisis. Thus, the process of firm selection during the crisis has undergone a rapid transformation, with distortions that may lead even skilled firms to exit. Implications of these findings for EU recovery policies are discussed.

SSRN Electronic Journal

The Policy Research Working Paper Series disseminates the findings of work in progress to encourage the exchange of ideas about development issues. An objective of the series is to get the findings out quickly, even if the presentations are less than fully polished. The papers carry the names of the authors and should be cited accordingly. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely those of the authors. They do not necessarily represent the views of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/World Bank and its affiliated organizations, or those of the Executive Directors of the World Bank or the governments they represent.

Firm shutdown creates a turbulent situation for workers as it leads directly to layoffs for its workers. An additional consideration is whether a firm's shutdown within an industry creates turbulence for workers at other continuing firms. Using data drawn from the Longitudinal Worker File, a Canadian firm-worker matched employment database, we investigate the impact of industry shutdown rates on workers at continuing firm. This paper exploits variation in shutdown rates across industries and within an industry over time to explain the rate of permanent layoffs and the growth of workers' earnings. We find an increase in industry shutdown rates increases the probability of permanent layoffs and decreases earnings growth for workers at continuing firms.

Lecture Notes in Economics and Mathematical Systems, 2004

This paper is part of the research project "Sources, evaluation and integrated management of risk in non financial firms" (2000) co-financed by MURST and the University of Trento. The authors are grateful to Giorgio Rampa, Kumaraswami Velupillai and Axel Leijonhufvud for their comments to earlier drafts. 1 A self-referential system is such that the actual value of a variable is a function of its expected value in the population, which is a function of the distribution of beliefs in the population. See e.g. and Frydman (1983) for introductory treatment.

International Atlantic Economic …, 2010

The 2007-08 financial crisis led to the 2008-09 global recession which is still causingbecause of the delays in the employment effects -dramatic consequences on labour markets of many countries in the world. In this paper, after a review of the existing literature, we produce new econometric results on the impact of past financial crises on labour markets , then we discuss ongoing evidences (2009) and forecasts (2010)(2011) and, finally, we derive some key economic (and labour) policy implications.