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2022, NATO-Russia Relationship: Perspectives from Russia
This report is written based on a workshop with participation of Russian experts prior to the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. While the subsequent events following the Russian invasion have been factored into some of the analysis in the later sections of the report, it does not provide commentary on the war in Ukraine.
2015
p.4 Introduction p.7 1. Historical background p.9 a. Foundation and evolution of NATO b. End of the Cold War c. Cooperation between NATO and Russia 2. The Ukraine Crisis and the Russian Perspective p.19
The aim of this paper is to analyze the relationship between NATO and Russia, to explain the historical background of their relationship, to detect challenges of their relation and to specify the potential future areas of cooperation. Some of their policy objectives are overlapping, so the cooperation enables them to accomplish these important objectives. Although NATO became the most powerful military international organization in the world, over the years, it confronts strategic challenges and dilemmas divided in two groups: existing and new. These challenges included Russia's aspiration for dominance, developments in Afghanistan, terrorism as an international risk, the Arab Spring, China as a global player and turn of the United States foreign policy toward the Asia-pacific region. This paper will focus on one of these challenges: Russia's ambitions for dominance and its influence on NATO-Russia relationship, identifying specific areas and issues of cooperation and confrontation. In the foreseeable future, NATO needs to focus on challenges and developments of a strategic importance for the Alliance, such as the innovative efforts for enhanced relationships, limited missions, operations and a realistic combination of solutions that can serve the principles and values of all NATO allies, including the most influential.
Atlantica, 2022
This article investigates NATO-Russia relations with a focus on the Eastern Flank of the Atlantic Alliance. It commences with a milestone in NATO-Russia relations, the 1997 NATO-Russia Founding Act, integrating it with the 2002 Rome Declaration. In this section, efforts to build dialogue with Moscow through the NATO-Russia Council (NRC) will be discussed. It will then describe NATO’s reaction to the illegal annexation of Crimea in 2014, and the subsequent establishment of the “dual track” deterrence/dialogue policy. Finally, it will unpack the events following the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine. In particular, it will discuss the decisions taken by the NATO Supreme Allied Commander Europe in March to strengthen NATO’s Eastern Flank, enhance air patrolling, and increase the presence of battlegroups. This article also gives crucial importance to the latest developments in the Alliance: the Madrid Summit and the New Strategic Concept. My approach to this topic will be based on dialogue and diplomacy, and on deterrence and defence from historical and geopolitical perspectives.
International Journal of Politics & Social Sciences Review (IJPSSR), 2023
Article 51 of the UN charter affirms that it is the natural and fundamental right of all nations to select and put in place their security measures, and to be able to freely choose or modify their security arrangements, such as alliances and treaties. After Ukraine regained its independence in 1991, formal relations between Ukraine and NATO were established in 1992 with Ukraine's membership in the North Atlantic Cooperation Council, which was later, renamed the Euro-Atlantic Partnership Council. Through qualitative analysis this research paper examines the Ukraine-NATO Partnership in the context of the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war, seeking to understand the challenges and opportunities it presents. Two hypotheses are put forth: first, that the partnership has evolved and strengthened, reflecting NATO's commitment to deterring Russian aggression and promoting regional stability; and second, that internal divisions within NATO member states continue to hinder the partnership's full potential. .It delves into the challenges and opportunities that arise from this partnership, considering the geopolitical implications and security concerns for both parties. This study further examines the implications of classical realism for current regional stability and security challenges in international relations. Overall it suggests that partnerships are still essential to maintaining regional stability and security.
Journal of Contemporary European Studies, 2015
The Ukrainian crisis and Russia's annexation of Crimea marks a new low in Russia-NATO relations. When we examine the relationship between NATO and Russia through the post-Cold War era, we can ask: was the deterioration in relations determined by geopolitical, historical, cultural and identity factors, or could sustainable partnership might have been possible had alternative decisions been taken? We argue that different reasons account for each of the four instances of deterioration in the relationship. Throughout the period some constants can be identified: cooperative rhetoric rarely mirrored reality; a mismatch in expectations, commitments and perceptions torpedoed the prospect of a more stable cooperative partnership; and, a surprising persistence in low-key but significant cooperation can be noted. The article concludes with the observation that dissonance at the heart of NATO-Russia relations is best understood as the consequence of Russia's attempt to navigate its way through a strategic trilemma and divorce signals Russia's failure to square the circle.
2019
After the break-up of the Soviet Union in 1991, former opponents-Russia and NATO-were forced to find new forms of coexistence in a totally different security environment than the previous one. This has prompted both sides to cooperate in various forums, partnerships, councils, programs, contacts, summits and academic exchanges. Over the last decade, NATO-Russia relations have been a significant part of European security policy even though the "special" and sometimes controversial relationship between the two entities has evolved much including many activities in various areas of cooperation.
Interesting to compare - 17 years later
2022
This paper outlines the underlying conditions of the Ukrainian theatre before Russia’s invasion in February 2022. The research firstly stresses the “conditional advantage” of the West upon the East at the end of the Cold War, underlying what the author calls the “legacies” of the Cold War. The focus of the paper then becomes the “scenario-planning” exercise of how the attrition between NATO and Russia might have become a conflict; how costly “boots on the ground” might have become and how Ukrainians could have not been able to live with a threatening foreign army deployed at its borders forever.
Russia - NATO relations has improved considerably in 2010, what has been clearly shown during the NATO – Russia summit meeting in Lisbon on November 20th. It has represented major change in comparison to the crisis in this relations started with the Russian-Georgian war of August 2008. On the road to the Lisbon NATO summit Moscow has intensified its efforts to lobby its interests concerning the European security. As a part of this process the political leadership of the Russian Federation have presented in the last few years several ideas and initiatives on the new European security architecture. Most of them have been directly or indirectly related to the issue of Russia – NATO or Russia – US relations. The purpose of this paper is to analyze briefly both the content and meaning of these Russian policies and initiatives against the background of past and present Russia’s European security strategy. The paper is an attempt to answer the question: to what extent the recent Russian initiatives are new; how they correspond with the strategic goals of Russia’s European security policy in the last 20 years; to what extent it is a continuity or a change of Russia’s policies in that respect.
Annuaire de la Faculté de Philosophie, 2022
The war on Ukraine, which began on 24 February 2022 with the invasion of the armed forces of the Russian Federation, is an event with a potential to cause tectonic changes in the current political, security and economic international order, including the possibility of a nuclear conflict. As it is the case with the other international and regional organizations, NATO too is enforced to reconsider its position in the multipolar world. The research problem of this paper is delimiting the reality from the myth of NATO that has rested for decades. It focuses on the search for the Alliance's real power in a multipolar international system, as well as seeking answers about the future of the European security order (especially through the prism of NATO-EU relations). The key hypothesis is that the course of events (in Ukraine but also the definite rise of multipolar international system) has been predictable. The reasons for the war were deeply embedded in the foundations of the hybrid international system. The preliminary conclusion is that NATO (albeit seemingly strengthened and expanded) will likely face with its irrelevance in a multipolar order. The thesis of a "global NATO" is just a veil that covers the restricted NATO mission primarily as an instrument of the US policy in Europe. Due to the Ukraine, EU (but also OSCE) is likely to see the shattered dreams of its own security system. It means it will be economically, politically and militarily completely dependent on Washington. NATO enlargement is reaching its peak, along with its primarily European reach. Globally, the United States will rely on its own forces and on alliance of the willing, now referred to as the "Collective West."
This paper presents a viewpoint for NATO and Russia’s security dilemma by analyzing what happened in Georgia, Ukraine, Libya and Syria. At the end of the Cold War re-building of NATO, inheriting Missile defense System by the US government and Russia’s growing concern regarding NATO’s eastward expansion made clear that Russia will not abandon her sphere of influence. Thus, the main objective of this study is to analyze the questions of what is the motivation behind NATO’s new strategy. This will be followed by another question NATO and EU enlargement will push Russia in what direction. The hypothesis of the study is that NATO’s strategy of taking position in the areas where identified as Russia’s backyard and sphere of influence is considered as “casus belli” by Russia. Therefore, Russia, despite NATO’s involvement in the specified area, will not abandon these areas and will continue to use her energy resources and geopolitical advantages as a coercion, especially against NATO members among EU countries.
Dušan Proroković and Ekaterina Entina (eds.), Euroasian Security After NATO, 2023
The article aims to envision the prospects of the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) in light of the ongoing war in Ukraine. Examining the historical and practical aspects of the issue, the starting premise is that NATO has become an obsolete and dangerous alliance. Ever since the end of the Cold War, marked by the collapse of socialism and the disbanding of the Warsaw Pact, the Alliance has been in a perpetual search for new enemies, i.e., a raison d'être, at the expense of global peace and security. During this process, NATO has tried to conceal its genuine interests in sustaining American hegemony and preserving its bureaucratic existence. The war in Ukraine is a direct consequence of NATO's "cosmopolitan militarism" on a global scale. The concept of a "global NATO" or "globalised NATO" lies at the core of this study. The article presents tentative conclusions, outlining possible scenarios for NATO's position in the aftermath of the Ukraine War.
Hitit Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, 2016
This study aims to evaluate the implications of the Ukraine crisis about NATO, which is fundamentally a defensive alliance. This article discusses the Ukraine crisis as a problem in which NATO's deterrence function, which is vital for NATO to persist as a strong alliance, has been tested in the context of its relations with the Russian Federation.The tension following the Ukraine crisis may affect the ranking of priorities among NATO's fundamental tasks, which may also disrupt cooperative security, one of NATO's three essential core tasks. This article analyzes the Ukraine crisis and the violation of NATO's member states' air spaces within the scope of Russia's military presence in Syria as examples, which NATO's solidarity and its deterrence capability have been tested. It evaluates NATO's attitude about these issues to claim that Russia, which had sanctions imposed on it by NATO and the EU after the Ukrainian crisis, aims to transform the different attitudes towards Russia among NATO's European members into a political fracture. Whether this aim will be fulfilled or not depends on the level of solidarity among NATO countries.
Historia i Polityka
The paper presents the results of research, whose main goal is to evaluate the aviation and rocket capability of the armed forces of the Russian Federation and Ukraine in terms of a possible launch of regular warfare. The authors primarily focus on changes in the military doctrine of the Russian Federation, which have created legal determinants of the use of armed forces outside the country’s territory in defense of national minorities, illustrated by taking control of Crimea. The authors also stress Russia’s military plans, including the development directions of the potential of armed forces as well as a possible threat to the security of the eastern NATO’s flank in the event of a conflict in Ukraine. In this respect, the capabilities of the air defense of countries on the eastern NATO flank, particularly Poland’s capability, were analyzed.
2002
1. A crucial issue for Russia has always been such a shaping of the European security architecture which would guarantee the possibility of its participation in decision-making in issues referring to European security, especially crisis management. Moscow, still perceiving itself as a great world power, even in times when its ambitions are gradually being limited, would like to solve the problem of security architecture by creating akind of directorate, which would manage European security and would consist of the main European powers, the USA, and Russia. It seems that after the attempts to base this architecture on the OSCE model fell through, Russia has set its hopes on co-operation with the EU and above all with NATO, the key dominator in the European security problem. It has been Moscow’s interest to make NATO gradually evolve in the direction of a collective security system.
Croatian International Relations Review, 2017
After the collapse of the bipolar international order, NATO has been focused on its desire to eradicate Cold War divisions and to build good relations with Russia. However, the security environment, especially in Europe, is still dramatically changing. The NATO Warsaw Summit was focused especially on NATO’s deteriorated relations with Russia that affect Europe’s security. At the same time, it looked at bolstering deterrence and defence due to many concerns coming from eastern European allies about Russia’s new attitude in international relations. The Allies agreed that a dialogue with Russia rebuilding mutual trust needs to start. In the times when Europe faces major crisis from its southern and south-eastern neighbourhood - Western Balkan countries, Syria, Libya and Iraq - and other threats, such as terrorism, coming from the so-called Islamic State, causing migration crises, it is necessary to calm down relations with Russia. The article brings out the main purpose of NATO in a tr...
Atlantica, 2024
The concerns over the future of the Atlantic Alliance’s continued assistance for Ukraine have escalated as the conflict in Ukraine has transformed into a war of attrition. Compared to the early months of the war, there are increasingly troubling discussions about how it might be better to attempt to bring an end to the conflict by initiating negotiations quickly. It should be realized that a feasible and practical solution that will provide perpetual peace in the region while ensuring the continuing sovereignty and independence of Ukraine can only be achieved by employing a new strategy, which focuses more on the political means. Considering this, this paper aims to evaluate the strategic significance of NATO’s ongoing commitment to Ukraine amid a new chapter of the modern world order marked by increasing multipolarity and shifting geopolitical dynamics.
International Journal, 2022
Ukraine is existential to Russia, but peripheral to American interests. The “escalation dominance” advantage is with Moscow, and no amount of military aid or economic coercion, short of an actual war, will deter Moscow, given the asymmetry of interests and differing threat perceptions. American public opinion remains firmly opposed to risking a potential great power war. That said, a Ukraine—if it exists as a state after the war—at peace with its neighbours is in everyone’s interest, as is a decreased risk of a great power conflict. This policy brief identifies some confidence-building measures that might, in a similar situation in the future, result in a more realist grand bargain. A potential war might be a short punitive campaign by Russia, in which case the central thesis of this policy brief, a neutral zone in Ukraine, will remain intact. It might also be a war of occupation and conquest, in which case this paper might be considered a study in a counterfactual history of what could have been.
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