Alternative Land‐Price Indexes for Commercial Properties in Tokyo

Review of Income and Wealth, 2016

The paper studies the problems associated with the construction of price indexes for commercial properties that could be used in the System of National Accounts. Property price indexes are required for the stocks of commercial properties in the Balance Sheets of the country and related price indexes for the land and structure components of a commercial property are required in the Balance Sheet accounts of the country for the calculation of the Multifactor Productivity of the Commercial Property Industry. The paper uses a variant of the builder's model that has been used to construct Residential Property Price Indexes. Geometric depreciation rates are estimated for commercial offices in Tokyo using assessment data for REITs. The problems associated with the decomposition of asset value into land and structure components are addressed. The problems associated with depreciating capital expenditures on buildings and with measuring the loss of asset value due to early retirement of the structure are also addressed.

Journal of Property Investment & Finance, 2006

Purpose -This paper seeks to investigate the nature and magnitude of the distortion in appraisal land price information according to change in the market, with a special focus on the Government's Published Land Prices. Design/methodology/approach -In Japan, there is an item of land price information, so-called Koji-Chika (PLPS: Published Land Price Information System), that is a survey of fair market value by the qualified appraisers. The valuation error of this land price information was analyzed using the following method. First, hedonic price indices were constructed based on both actual transaction prices and the Published Land Prices, they were then compared to detect possible distortions in the governmental price information. Also the possibility of structural change in the Japanese real estate markets was studied and its effect on price indices was considered. Analysis of the Tokyo metropolitan area in Japan took place between 1975 and 1999 Findings -Large and systematic discrepancies between actual transaction prices and the Published Land Prices were identified, which might suggest that there are serious problems in the governmental information system. It is believed that it is necessary to consider this issue in the context of the entire real estate appraisal system in Japan.

The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, 2007

In this paper, we estimate hedonic price equations of Japanese commercial and residential land prices for a 25-year period and to investigate possible structural changes in these price equations. Our price equations are based on transaction prices, not appraised land values, of commercial land in Central Business Districts of Tokyo (Chiyoda Ward, Chuo Ward, and Minato Ward), and residential land of its suburb (Setagaya Ward). We find that price structure differs substantially among locations, reflecting differences in supplier pricing and end-user preferences. We also find significant structural changes in price structure, identifying pre-bubble, bubble and post-bubble periods.

Journal of Economics and Statistics, 2010

Do indexes of house prices behave differently depending on the estimation method? If so, to what extent? To address these questions, we use a unique dataset that we compiled from individual listings in a widely circulated real estate advertisement magazine. The dataset contains more than 470,000 listings of housing prices between 1986 and 2008, including the period of the housing bubble and its burst. We find that there exists a substantial discrepancy in terms of turning points between hedonic and repeat sales indexes, even though the hedonic index is adjusted for structural changes and the repeat sales index is adjusted in the way Case and Shiller suggested. Specifically, the repeat sales measure signals turning points later than the hedonic measure: for example, the hedonic measure of condominium prices bottomed out at the beginning of 2002, while the corresponding repeat sales measure exhibits a reversal only in the spring of 2004. This discrepancy cannot be fully removed even if we adjust the repeat sales index for depreciation. JEL Classification Number : C43; C81; R21; R31

Journal of Property Research, 2015

We propose a new method to estimate quality adjusted commercial property price indexes using real estate investment trust (REIT) data. Our method is based on the present value approach, but the way the denominator (i.e., the discount rate) and the numerator (i.e., cash flows from properties) are estimated differs from the traditional method. We estimate the discount rate based on the share prices of REITs, which can be regarded as the stock market's valuation of the set of properties owned by the REITs. As for the numerator, we use rental prices associated only with new rental contracts rather than those associated with all existing contracts. Using a dataset with prices and cash flows for about 500 commercial properties included in Japanese REITs for the period 2003 to 2010, we find that our price index signals turning points much earlier than an appraisal-based price index; specifically, our index peaks in the first quarter of 2007, while the appraisal-based price index exhibits a turnaround only in the third quarter of 2008. Our results suggest that the share prices of REITs provide useful information in constructing commercial property price indexes.

Journal of Statistical Science and Application, 2015

The paper studies the problems associated with the construction of price indexes for commercial properties that could be used in the System of National Accounts. Property price indexes are required for the stocks of commercial properties in the Balance Sheets of the country and related price indexes for the land and structure components of a commercial property are required in the Income Accounts of the country if the Multifactor Productivity of the Commercial Property Industry is calculated as part of the System of National accounts. The paper suggests a variant of the capitalization of the Net Operating Income approach to the construction of property price indexes and uses the one hoss shay or light bulb model of depreciation as a model of depreciation for the structure component of a commercial property.

International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis, 2010

An economic indicator faces two requirements. It should be timely reported and should not significantly be altered afterward to avoid erroneous messages. At the same time they should reflect changing market conditions constantly and appropriately. These requirements are particularly challenging for housing price indices, since housing markets are subject to large temporal/seasonal changes and occasional structural changes. In this study we estimate a hedonic price index of previously-owned condominiums of Tokyo 23 Wards from 1986 through 2006, taking account of seasonal sample selection biases and structural changes in a way it enables us to report the indexes timely which are not subject to change after reporting. Specifically, we propose an overlapping-period hedonic model (OPHM), in which a hedonic price index is calculated every month based on data in the "window" of a year ending this month (this month and previous eleven months). We also estimate hedonic housing price indexes under alternative assumptions: (i) no structural change ("structurally restricted") and (ii) different structure for every month ("structurally unrestricted"). Results suggest that the structure of the housing market, including seasonality, changes over time, and these changes occur continuously over time. It is also demonstrated that structurally restricted indices that do not account for structural changes involve a large time lag compared with indices that do account for structural changes during periods with significant price fluctuations. JEL Classification Number: C43; C81; R21; R31

2018

An economic indicator faces two requirements. It should be timely reported and should not significantly be altered afterward to avoid erroneous messages. At the same time they should reflect changing market conditions constantly and appropriately. These requirements are particularly challenging for housing price indices, since housing markets are subject to large temporal/seasonal changes and occasional structural changes. In this study we estimate a hedonic price index of previously-owned condominiums of Tokyo 23 Wards from 1986 through 2006, taking account of seasonal sample selection biases and structural changes in a way it enables us to report the indexes timely which are not subject to change after reporting. Specifically, we propose an overlapping-period hedonic model (OPHM), in which a hedonic price index is calculated every month based on data in the “window” of a year ending this month (this month and previous eleven months). We also estimate hedonic housing price indexes ...

2011

In modern portfolio theory, real estate can reduce substantially the total risk in a portfolio. Therefore, a flaw in the aggregate real estate index would cause a tremendous consequence for all the stakeholders in the industry. In general, there are two major approaches in producing property indices: the appraisal-based and the transaction-based approach. The transaction-index approach is more statistical or econometric in nature, tending therefore to be more formally explicit and objective or transparent in its application procedure. Hedonic regression model is considered as the most suitable for constructing cross-sectional quality adjusted house price indices. The author thus has chosen the hedonic regression model in the empirical part as the opponent method against the Official method, the one which is adopted by the Ministry of Construction of Vietnam. The results show the Official index has a different pattern compared to the indices derived from hedonic and other models. Due...

2017

The use of hedonic regression models on the sales of detached housing units is widespread in the real estate literature. However, these models do not address the need to decompose the sale price into structure and land components. In the international System of National Accounts, it is necessary to obtain separate estimates for the price and quantity of housing structures and the land that these structures sit on. The builder’s model accomplishes this decomposition but it has only been applied to Dutch and Japanese data. The paper will apply the builder’s model to data on sales of detached houses in Richmond, British Columbia to test the robustness of the model. The property price indexes generated by the builder’s model are also compared to the corresponding indexes generated by a traditional time product dummy hedonic regression model. The implied structure depreciation rates generated by both models are also compared. We find that if a sufficient number of housing character...