" L" ON EARTH

International Journal of Humanities and Social Science Invention (IJHSSI) ISSN (Online): 2319 – 7722, ISSN (Print): 2319 – 7714 www.ijhssi.org ||Volume 9 Issue 7 Ser. II || July 2020 || PP 10-13, 2020

In an article published on the BBC website, referring to a set of criteria – a civilization would correspond to a society with agriculture, multiple cities, military dominance in its geographical region and a continuous political structure –, Luke Kemp (Cambridge University) identifies a series of civilizations over the period 3000BC-600 and presents data on their life span. According to Kemp’s calculation, the average duration of a civilization is 336 years. In addition, the author considers the factors that may contribute to the collapse of civilizations – climate change, environmental degradation, social and political factors, complexity, external shocks, random events, etc. He also asks a key-question – What can this tell us about the future of global modern civilization? Another data base covering 74 civilizations is proposed by Larry Freeman (Kenwood Academy, Chicago), who reports 349 and 330 years as average and median values. Relying on these data sets, we propose new calculations and an elementary linear regression analysis. Moreover, we underline some of the limitations of our exercise and the need for further discussions on the meaning of civilization for the identification of past and existing civilizations.

International Journal of Humanities and Social Science Invention (IJHSSI), 2020

In an article published on the BBC website, referring to a set of criteria – a civilization would correspond to a society with agriculture, multiple cities, military dominance in its geographical region and a continuous political structure –, Luke Kemp (Cambridge University) identifies a series of civilizations over the period 3000BC-600 and presents data on their life span. According to Kemp’s calculation, the average duration of a civilization is 336 years. Another data base covering 74 civilizations is proposed by Larry Freeman (Kenwood Academy, Chicago), who reports 349 and 330 years as average and median values. Relying on these data sets, we propose new calculations and an elementary linear regression analysis. Moreover, we underline some of the limitations of our exercise and the need for further discussions on the meaning of civilization for the identification of past and existing civilizations

We present an empirical study of the long-term evolution of several social indicators (e.g. human population growth, statistics of deadly quarrels, diffusion of democratic systems, etc.). We assume that the human species emerge, develop and become extinct with similar evolutionary patterns that other terrestrial species. We propose that the long-term indicators are showing some sort of macro-transition in their long-term behavior that we defined as “Technological Adolescent Age.” We present an estimation of this period. Assuming the “Principle of Mediocrity” and using the Drake Equation we calculate a lower threshold for the number of technological civilizations in the galaxy.

Foresight, 2018

Purpose: This paper formalizes long-term trajectories of human civilization as a scientific and ethical field of study. The long-term trajectory of human civilization can be defined as the path that human civilization takes during the entire future time period in which human civilization could continue to exist. Approach: We focus on four types of trajectories: status quo trajectories, in which human civilization persists in a state broadly similar to its current state into the distant future; catastrophe trajectories, in which one or more events cause significant harm to human civilization; technological transformation trajectories, in which radical technological breakthroughs put human civilization on a fundamentally different course; and astronomical trajectories, in which human civilization expands beyond its home planet and into the accessible portions of the cosmos. Findings: Status quo trajectories appear unlikely to persist into the distant future, especially in light of long-term astronomical processes. Several catastrophe, technological transformation, and astronomical trajectories appear possible. Value: Some current actions may be able to affect the long-term trajectory. Whether these actions should be pursued depends on a mix of empirical and ethical factors. For some ethical frameworks, these actions may be especially important to pursue.

Bioastronomy 2007: Molecules, Microbes, and Extraterrestrial Life ASP Conference Series, Vol. 420, 2009, 2009

Several very long-term biological and ecological studies have shown that different species on Earth emerge, develop, and become extinct with similar evolutionary patterns. Assuming the Principle of Mediocrity, we can expect that the distribution of different technological galactic species will behave with similar evolutionary patterns to the terrestrial ones. Based on the behavior of different centennial societal indicators we estimate the minimum lifetime of our terrestrial civilization. With this value, we infer a minimum threshold for the galactic density of technological civilizations. We apply these results to analyze the probability of a random detection by existing state-of-the-art SETI programs.

Astronomy & Geophysics

Acta Astronautica, 2016

In a series of recent papers (Refs. [1] through [9]) this author gave the equations of his mathematical model of Evolution and SETI, simply called "Evo-SETI". Key features of Evo-SETI are: 1) The Statistical Drake Equation is the extension of the classical Drake equation into Statistics. Probability distributions of the number of ET civilizations in the Galaxy (lognormals) were given, and so is the probable distribution of the distance of ETs from us. 2) Darwinian Evolution is redefined as a Geometric Brownian Motion (GBM) in the number of living species on Earth over the last 3.5 billion years. Its mean value grew exponentially in time and Mass Extinctions of the past are accounted for as unpredictable low GBM values. 3) The exponential growth of the number of species during Evolution is the geometric locus of the peaks of a one-parameter family of lognormal distributions (b-lognormals, starting each at a different time b ¼birth) constrained between the time axis and the exponential mean value. This accounts for cladistics (i.e. Evolution Lineages). The above key features of Evo-SETI Theory were already discussed by this author in Refs. [1] through [9]. Now about this paper's "novelties". 4) The lifespan of a living being, let it be a cell, an animal, a human, a historic human society, or even an ET society, is mathematically described as a finite b-lognormal. This author then described mathematically the historical development of eight human historic civilizations, from Ancient Greece to the USA, by virtue of b-lognormals. 5) Finally, the b-lognormal's entropy is the measure of a civilization's advancement level. By measuring the entropy difference between Aztecs and Spaniards in 1519, this author was able to account mathematically for the 20-million-Aztecs defeat by a few thousand Spaniards, due to the latter's technological (i.e. entropic) superiority. The same might unfortunately happen to Humans when they will face an ET superior civilization for the first time. Now the question is: whenever a new exoplanet is discovered, where does that exoplanet stand in its evolution towards life as we have it on Earth nowadays, or beyond? This is the central question of SETI. This author hopes that his Evo-SETI Theory will help addressing this question when SETI astronomers will succeed in finding the first "life signatures" or even ET Civilizations.

The study of civilization has been a primarily historical enterprise, and secondarily a sociological enterprise. This historical and sociological approach to the study of civilization has not been sufficient for understanding civilization as a distinctive phenomenon. Civilization needs to be studied as a sui generis object of scientific knowledge. Ten imperatives for approaching civilization in this way are outlined, which touch upon scientificity, interdisciplinarity, the definition of civilization, temporality, concepts specific to civilization, thought experiments, theoretical models, formality, regulative principles, and scholarly institutions. If civilization has a future, i.e., if it does not succumb to existential risk, civilization then has before it an expansive future with few intrinsic limits. Our knowledge of cosmology and of the history of the universe points to plentiful energy and material resources that could be exploited by any civilization possessing a sufficiently advanced technology, and these cosmological conditions should prevail for several billion years. Restricting ourselves to obvious extrapolations of civilization as we know it, supervening upon life as we know it, civilization appears to become more robust as it matures, experiencing fewer lapses of shorter duration and less loss of heritage, so that once a civilization has established multiple independent centers beyond its homeworld, there is no reason to limit its extent in space and time except for the limits of energy and material resources exploitable by such a civilization. The path from civilization to supercivilization 1 is not inevitable, but also not impossible. When the first starship departs from our solar system with human beings bound for another star, we will begin the process of the expansion of terrestrial civilization to other planetary systems. An interstellar civilization will come into being at this time. Before this happens, civilization will have expanded beyond Earth, making the entirety of the solar system its home, using the plentiful energy and material resources nearby Earth. Already at this stage of development, civilization will have established multiple independent centers of spacefaring civilization, though still clustered closely around the sun like moths fluttering around a candle flame. The interstellar expansion that would follow upon this buildout of a spacefaring civilization within our solar system would extend these multiple independent centers of civilization to multiple stars and their planetary systems,

Acta Astronautica, 2010

Ten thousand years ago, no-one on Earth was living a ‘civilized’ life. What has happened since is remarkable and impossible to fully comprehend; yet, everyone has ideas about civilization, and how the world came to be as it is. Such understandings of civilizations on Earth inevitably influence speculation about extraterrestrial civilizations, in two ways. First, sometimes a specific Earth civilization or historical experience is explicitly used as a basis for inferences about extraterrestrial civilizations. Second, more general assumptions about the development and functioning of Earth’s societies shape conjectures about alien societies. This paper focuses on the latter, general assumptions, with the aim of considering how we can use multidisciplinary approaches, and our knowledge of Earth’s civilizations, to our best advantage in SETI.

The Global Debt Crisis and Its Socioeconomic Implications, 2017

The Evolution of Civilizations n this perceptive look at the factors behind the rise and fall of civilizations, Professor Quigley seeks to establish the analytical tools necessary for understanding history. He examines the application of scientific method to the social sciences, then establishes his historical hypotheses. He poses a division of culture into six levels, from the more abstract to the more concrete-intellectual, religious, social, political, economic, and military-and he identifies seven stages of historical change for all civilizations: mixture, gestation, expansion, conflict, universal empire, decay, and invasion. Quigley tests these hypotheses by a detailed analysis of five major civilizations: the Mesopotamian, the Canaanite, the Minoan, the classical, and the Western. "He has reached sounder ground than has Arnold J. Toynbee"-Christian Science Monitor. "Studies of this nature, rare in American historiography, should be welcomed. Quigley's juxtaposition of facts in a novel order is often provocative, and his work yields a harvest of insights"-American Historical Review. "Extremely illuminating"-Kirkus Reviews. "This is an amazing book.. .. Quigley avoids the lingo of expertise; indeed, the whole performance is sane, impressively analytical, and well balanced"-Library Journal.