UK economic performance since 1997: growth, productivity and jobs

National Institute Economic Review - Natl Inst Econ Rev, 1992

The Journal of Economic History, 2001

1974

2007

Despite its varying pattern of cyclical ups and downs, the British economy has, on average,grown at 2.5% per year for six decades, with minimal breaks in trend. So history warns us that government policies to change that trend may have little effect. There is a bit more movement in the trend growth of national income per head, which has been

1999

OECD Economics Department Working Papers, 2020

This document, as well as any data and map included herein, are without prejudice to the status of or sovereignty over any territory, to the delimitation of international frontiers and boundaries and to the name of any territory, city or area. 2  ECO/WKP(2020)38 Unclassified OECD Working Papers should not be reported as representing the official views of the OECD or of its member countries. The opinions expressed and arguments employed are those of the author(s). Working Papers describe preliminary results or research in progress by the author(s) and are published to stimulate discussion on a broad range of issues on which the OECD works. Comments on Working Papers are welcomed, and may be sent to the Economics Department, OECD,

1991

1994

How much of the growth of output can be accounted for by the growth of inputs and how much is due to the growth of productivity? This book, first published in 1994, is a detailed attempt to answer this question for Britain. Estimates of outputs and inputs for over 130 industries were constructed, following the methodology pioneered by Professor Dale Jorgenson. These estimates can be employed to build up a picture of the performance of UK manufacturing as a whole. Contrary to the impression left by some previous authors, growth of productivity is found to play a relatively minor role - growth of inputs, when properly measured, accounts for most of the growth of output. The wealth of data which this book presents can also be used to shed light on a number of recent controversial views attached to the 'New Growth Theory'. According to this theory, externalities and increasing returns, often held to be associated with fixed investment, are the engine of economic growth. However,...

papers.ssrn.com

to whom we are grateful. We would like to thank Rob Elder and an anonymous external referee for comments and suggestions for revision. We would also like to thank Ian Bond, Jenni Greenslade, Neal Hatch, Simon Price and participants in the Asia-Pacific Productivity Conference in Brisbane, July 2004, for helpful comments.

The UK Economy in the Long Expansion and its Aftermath

The productivity performance of the UK economy in the period 1990-2007 was excellent. Based entirely on pre-crisis data, and using a two-sector growth model, I project the future growth rate of GDP per hour in the market sector to be 2.61% p.a. But the financial crisis and the Great Recession which began in Spring 2008 have dealt this optimistic picture a devastating blow. Both GDP and GDP per hour have fallen and are still below the level reached at the peak of the boom. So I discuss a wide range of hypotheses which seek to explain the productivity collapse, including the impact of austerity. Most of the conclusions here are negative: the explanation in question doesn't work. I next turn to the long run impact of financial crises, particularly banking crises, on productivity, capital, TFP and employment. Based on a cross-country panel analysis of 61 countries over 1950-2010, I argue that banking crises generally have a long run impact on the level of productivity but not necessarily on its long run growth rate. I therefore predict that the UK will eventually return to the growth rate predicted prior to the crisis. This prediction is conditional on the UK continuing to follow good policies in other respects, in particular not allowing the government debt-GDP ratio to rise excessively. Nonetheless the permanent reduction in the level of GDP per worker resulting from the crisis could be substantial, about 5½%. The cross-country evidence also suggests that there are permanent effects on employment, implying a possibly even larger hit to the level of GDP per capita of about 9%.

Citeseer

The stagnation in full time employment and increasing numbers of part time and selfemployed workers pose a significant challenge to the UK economy. However, the key to the paradox might actually lie in a long term evaluation of all these factors of production. Whilst economists, politicians and the media puzzle over the UK paradox of rising employment and falling output, this paper attempts to evaluate the relationship between output hours, productivity hours and employment together with the continuing rise of the UK population, an increasing dependency on services and a tendency to increasing unemployment.

2019

Economic & Labour Market Review, 2008

2000

Bank of England for helpful comments. The proceedings of this conference will be published by the Bank of England in July 1998. The usual disclaimers apply.