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2018, Armed Conflict Survey
The term 'peace process' captures a wide range of different phenomena primarily related to the (mostly) international management of intra-state conflicts. As a label, it has been applied to processes at the end of which some form of peace had actually been achieved (such as in Northern Ireland), as well as to processes that are outright failures, including extreme cases like Rwanda where a peace agreement in 1993 became the precursor of a genocide in 1994. Between these extremes, however, a third type of peace process can be identified that would be better described as protracted, and which can take the form either of a serial failure to make a negotiated agreement last (such as the situation in South Sudan since late 2013), or of processes that are caught in more or less stable ceasefires without achieving a sustainable conflict settlement (such as Ukraine). This categorisation is admittedly crude: the great variety of actors involved, the relationships they have with each other and the types of agreements that they achieve (or not) speak to the uniqueness of each such process, but underneath the specifics of each situation, there are important commonalities that many peace processes share and that are worth exploring in an effort to understand the causes of both success and failure. Broadly defined, a peace process might be understood as the process towards a non-military solution sought by the respective parties to a conflict, often supported by international involvement. Yet the local and international commitments that are necessary to achieve durable peace are not always sincere or sustained; they can be undermined by domestic and/or third parties; and they may suffer from unrealistic expectations that, if unfulfilled, cause peace processes to stall or collapse back into violent conflict. Given the human and material costs of conflict and its
Social Science Research Network, 2019
In 2011, South Sudan seceded from Sudan following a landmark referendum on self-determination. Yet fewer than three years after the historic vote for independence, the world's newest country descended into a civil war that, since December 2013, has brought killing and bloodshed. In attempts to resolve the conflict and bring the civil war to an end, the warring factions have signed peace agreement after peace agreement. In September 2018, Salva Kiir, the president of South Sudan, and his major adversary, the former vice-president and rebel leader Riek Machar, signed yet another peace agreement in Addis Ababa, the Ethiopian capital. This is the 12th agreement between them. Most of these agreements have suffered from a fraught mediation context (at times, being very coercive), deficits in preparedness (with inadequate time to fully implement the agreements), consent, impartiality, inclusivity (given the proliferation of armed and unarmed oppositions) and lack of a broad political strategy to anchor the agreed-upon peace deal. How did this young country that attained her independence in 2011 amidst massive international fanfare degenerate into chaos so quickly? And why have the attempts to resolve the conflict faced such difficulties? The Zambakari Advisory is pleased to publish its first Special Issue on the subject: "South Sudan Peace Agreement and Peacemaking." We asked scholars, activists, students, former government officials and leading intellectuals to think about the theme for this issue and offer insights into it. We hope these analyses will provide new insights to both reflect on, and inform the work of stakeholders engaged in brokering peace and/or the pending National Dialogue.
Austrian Study Centre for Peace and Conflict Resolution, 2020
Peace Negotiations and Processes: Nature, Approaches and Challenges (Journal of Conflict Early Warning and Response, Vol.1 No.1 Sept-Dec. 2015, pp. 97-106), 2015
Peace negotiations often seek to resolve protracted conflicts and provide a vision for inter-group or interstate relations at the local, national and regional level. This is done through reaching a peace accord or agreement. As agreements are reached on key issues, the foundations of peace are strengthened. Nevertheless, for peace to take root, negotiations are an important starting point. In many cases, the negotiation efforts fail and recourse to more violence follows. After careful examination, it turns out that sometimes the approaches and strategies applied to such peace negotiations add up to factors that cause either their failure or even the failure of the agreements that culminate from them. This article therefore examines negotiation as a tool for conflict prevention, management and resolution. It explores the nature, elements and processes of an effective peace negotiation which has its ultimate goal of establishing a sustainable peace agreement and consequently building durable peace.
This report has been produced from the workshop on "Assessing and Influencing Progress in Peace Processes" held at Barcelona on May 30-June 1, 2018. Borja Paladini Adell (Kroc Institute for International Peace Studies) and Kristian Herzbolheimer (Conciliation Resources) convened the symposium and edited the report (together with Christine Bell). Sean Molly authored the report. The workshop brought together a fruitful combination of researchers, policy actors and practitioners, including a mixture of state and civil society actors. The overarching purpose of the workshop was to explore new and emerging developments in methodologies and approaches used to assess and influence progress in peace processes.
The 21st century has witnessed a significant shift from 'old wars' to what British academic Mary Kaldor has termed 'new wars'. Characteristic of the post-Cold War era, these new wars involve a multitude of complex factors and actors at various levels that instigate and sustain war and violence. Among other things, it is the longer lasting nature of new civil wars as compared to old wars, having vast psychological, economic, cultural and social impact at the grassroots level, that necessitates their in-depth study to provide relevant information as a prerequisite for peacemaking and peacebuilding efforts. The ongoing third civil war in South Sudan is one such New War. South Sudan, the youngest nation of the world, caught attention as it emerged out of a referendum gaining an almost 100% consensus for its independence. The possibility of a country, emerging from a consensus so massive, being crippled by civil war was unexpected. However, within five years of its independence, a conflict between two political groups had emerged, overriding other state concerns. Despite attempted implementation of multiple peace agreements, the conflict continues to soar through, negating any attempt at mediation or negotiation. The paper begins with an analysis of the two major peace agreements viz. Agreement on the Resolution of the Conflict in the Republic of South Sudan (2015) and Revitalized Agreement on the Resolution of the Conflict in the Republic of South Sudan to resolve the South Sudan conflict (2018). It then seeks to examine other possible means of conflict resolution by attempting to draw parallels between theories of conflict resolution given by J.V. Monteville, Morton Deutsch, William Zartman and Johan Galtung and the empirical reality of the peace process in South Sudan. Hence, this paper is significant not only in terms of its contribution to literature on conflict resolution and peacebuilding but also in aiding comprehension of prospective paths to a stable future for the conflict torn communities in this country.
The Oslo Accords of 1993 promised to bring peace between Israelis and Palestinians, and the Comprehensive Peace Agreement of 2005 promised the same for the Sudanese. These were different agreements designed to deal with different problems in different contexts. But they did reflect a specific approach of liberal peacebuilding that generated almost identical problems. This paper attempts to examine the parallels in the way the two agreements faltered and unravelled, producing what one commentator described as “spirals of insecurity”, becoming the trigger for new rounds of conflict. It argues that the problems do not lie merely in the gradualism and ambiguities of the two agreements, as many have argued regarding the Oslo Accord, but additionally in the continued commitment of the protagonists to mutually exclusive and fervently espoused objectives, thus hampering the cooperation demanded by a gradualist approach. I conclude that in cases where such deep commitments to irreconcilable objectives persist, the gradualist approach should be significantly modified to take account of realities.
This article provides new evidence on how the international community can effectively foster peace after civil war. It expands the current literature's narrow focus on either peacekeeping or aggregated aid flows, adopting a comprehensive, yet disaggregated, view on international peacebuilding efforts. We distinguish five areas of peacebuilding support (peacekeeping, nonmilitary security support, support for politics and governance, for socioeconomic development, and for societal conflict transformation) and analyze which types or combinations are particularly effective and in which context. Applying configurational analysis (qualitative comparative analysis) to all thirty-six post-civil war peace episodes between 1990 and 2014, we find that (1) peacekeeping is only one important component of effective post-conflict support, (2) the largest share of peaceful cases can be explained by support for politics and governance, (3) only combined international efforts across all types of support can address difficult contexts, and (4) countries neglected by the international community are highly prone to experiencing conflict recurrence. Three case studies shed light on underlying causal mechanisms.
African Affairs, 2013
A decade ago international peacemakers turned a blind eye when violence in Darfur, Sudan, first escalated into civil war. This article addresses the war's brutal beginnings, using a close reading of internal communications, interviews, and public statements to deepen our understanding of the predicament that key peacemakers found themselves in, and dug themselves into. For a long first year, when the majority of violent deaths in Darfur occurred, peacemakers employed a set of discursive strategies that intentionally depoliticized Darfur's conflict. Despite knowledge to the contrary, peacemakers carefully avoided connections between Darfur and the ongoing north-south peace negotiations they were championing to end Sudan's long second civil war. These ideational moves gave peacemakers a degree of cover for not responding directly to the conflict, but they also shaped the political calculations and opportunities of domestic actors in ways that further enabled armed violence, ultimately leading to policy failure. The problems of peacemaking in Sudan highlight the particular challenges that arise from negotiating peace. Negotiations give words a privileged place in taming the materiality of violence, yet this also leaves peacemakers liable to shaping new trajectories of political violence born out of local dissatisfaction with the prospects for peace. ENDGAMES IN AFRICAN CIVIL WARS predominantly involve detailed negotiated settlements rather than victory or surrender, yet peace agreements often fail to avert renewed conflict. When peace is negotiated, words hold a privileged place in taming the materiality of violence. Peace negotiations frame what the war is, and is not, about, and in turn prefigure possibilities of what peace might tangibly mean. When armed violence recurs during peace negotiations, especially when such violence is to some extent aimed at influencing the ideas of peace at stake, peacemaking plays a significant role in determining its political significance. The achievements of peacemaking may in this way be sullied by their role in generating new and
ASPR Report No 5, 2020
This research draws on discussions held at two Joint Analysis Workshops in October and November 2019 organised by the Political Settlements Research Programme (PSRP). The workshops were held in cooperation with The British Academy (BA) and the Rift Valley Institute (RVI). In total, over 100 participants from 25 countries involved with or researching on local peace agreements contributed to thematic discussions. The research also draws on the PA-X Peace Agreements Database (www.peaceagreements.org), a database of all peace agreements at any stage of the peace process from 1990 to 2019. The database is fully searchable and supports both qualitative and quantitative examination of peace agreements.
Journal of Global Peace and Conflict, 2016
The signing of peace agreement does not always end conflicts. Rather, dying conflicts have resurrected after the failure of peace implementation. This article introduces the concept of Peace Agreement-Implementation Gap (PAIG) as an explanation to why waning wars wax after peace agreement. The Arusha Peace Accord (APA) and the infamous Rwandan Genocide is revisited to examine the role of spoilers and incentive incompatibility in the failure of peace agreement. The article argues that the negotiation of the APA was flawed by the exclusion of key stakeholders who later became substantively organised spoilers, thus, undermining the peace agreement. Additionally, with a lack of potential benefit, there was minimal international commitment to the implementation of the APA. Ultimately, the reluctance of strong powers to commit troops in a difficult field coupled with the internal wrangling of local spoilers hindered the successful implementation of the APA, which in turn led to the genocide.
Why do some peace agreements end armed conflicts whereas others do not? Previous studies have primarily focused on the relation between warring parties and the provisions included in peace agreements. Prominent mediators, however, have emphasised the importance of stakeholders at various levels for the outcome of peace agreements. To match the experience of these negotiators we apply a level-of-analysis approach to examine the contextual circumstances under which peace agreements are concluded. While prominent within the causes of war literature, level-of-analysis approaches are surprisingly scant in research about conflict resolution. This article compares two Sudanese Peace Agreements: the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (2005) that ended the North–South war and led to the independence of South Sudan, and the Darfur Peace Agreement (2006) which failed to end fighting in Darfur. We find that factors at the local, national and international level explain the different outcomes of the two agreements. Hence, the two case studies illustrate the merit of employing a level-of-analysis approach to study the outcome of peace agreements. The main contribution of this article is that it presents a new theoretical framework to understand why some peace agreements terminate armed conflict whereas others do not.
Politics & Policy, 2008
Using a ‘Metrics Framework for Accessing Conflict Transformation and Stabilization’ developed by the United States Institute of Peace, this study analyzes the effectiveness of the 2005 Sudanese Comprehensive Peace Agreement in dealing with the underlying causes of conflict. We aim to draw out and develop several important lessons for future international mediators. These lessons are: the recognition that good timing is essential for a successful outcome; the importance of a completely neutral and independent mediator; the clear definition of the role of international parties in order to prevent abuse by parochial interests; the necessity of identifying all aggrieved parties and issues for inclusion in the process; the importance of an international presence on implementation mechanisms; the provision of overarching review mechanisms; the inclusion of specifics on key issues such as the integration of ex-combatants; and, finally, the need to apply lessons identified and learned.
Routledge eBooks, 2022
South African Journal of International Affairs, 2017
The conflicts in the formerly united Sudan have led to millions of deaths since the country's independence. The Naivasha Agreement was meant to end these wars. The January 2005 agreement foresaw a future where the Sudan People's Liberation Army/Movement and the Sudanese government would coexist within the framework of a united country. Subsequently, in 2011, however, the country was partitioned and the conflicts in Sudan and South Sudan have continued unabated. Interrogating the treaty texts and employing a case study approach and analysis of the economic and power dynamics within the region, this paper addresses the reason behind the failure of the comprehensive peace agreement and subsequent agreements intended to bring peace after partition. It becomes evident that the same dynamics that fed the partition of the country have helped bring conflict within its two successor states. In short, agreements are not sufficient to build peace.
In the context of statebuilding and peacebuilding, Catherine Barnes of Conciliation Resources examines changes in 'the political settlement' in war-to-peace transitions. The paper was commissioned by the UK Department for International Development and the first part explores concepts such as statebuilding, political settlement, social contract and also conflict and state transformation and peacemaking and peace agreements. The second part looks at the limits of externally imposed settlements, more inclusive peace negotiations and fostering effective peacemaking. The study uses diagrams and tables and also contains a list of policy implications. - See more at: http://www.c-r.org/resources/renegotiating-political-settlement-war-peace-transitions#sthash.gZHKZHKz.dpuf
A strategic approach to peacebuilding seeks to achieve stable peace through an inclusive, comprehensive and sustained peace process that complements a political settlement with other cooperative and mutually supportive activities. Such a process, grounded in recognition of the complex causation of violent conflict and a ‘positive peace’ concept, remains an ideal type rarely if ever found in the real world. This chapter compares the process leading to and following the 2005 Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) in Sudan with this ideal, focusing particularly on external intervention. It briefly examines the historical background and causes of the conflict before considering which ‘ideal’ elements were present and which were missing in the peace process, the reasons why this was so and the material and ideational constraints that prevented the ‘Naivasha Process’ from achieving the perhaps unattainable ideal. The chapter thus seeks to develops constructive lessons for those planning for or conducting peace processes. [Note: This paper is a pre-proof draft chapter for 'Making and Breaking Peace in Sudan and South Sudan', edited by by Sarah Nouwen, Laura James and Sharath Srinivasan.]
International Journal on Minority and Group Rights, 2011
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