Skills, knowledge, and prediction

Academic Medicine, 2015

Blood Purification, 2008

Practice guidelines have proliferated in medicine but their impact on actual practice and outcomes is difficult, if not impossible, to quantify. Though guidelines are based largely on observational data and expert opinion, it is widely believed that adherence to them leads to improved outcomes.

Current Opinion in Allergy and Clinical Immunology, 2009

Revista Española de Cardiología (English Edition), 2010

Journal of the Colleges of Medicine of South Africa, 2024

30, there was an error in the year of the published date. The published date was given incorrectly as 31 January 2023. The correct published date should be 31 January 2024. The publisher apologises for this error. The correction does not change the study's findings, its significance or overall interpretation of its results or the scientific conclusions of the article in any way.

The American Journal of Medicine, 2016

BMJ, 1989

Journal of the Royal Society of Medicine, 2003

Annals of Internal Medicine, 2020

This article is 1 of 6 within the Annals Clinical Decision Making series. The series is available at Annals.org. Glossary Heuristics: Cognitive shortcuts taken on the basis of prior experience and recognition of previously seen patterns. Cognitive bias: In clinical reasoning, cognitive bias occurs when a mental shortcut, or heuristic, results in misdiagnosis or inappropriate treatment. Base rate: The underlying frequency or prevalence of a diagnosis, and a correlate to pretest probability. Representativeness heuristic: The tendency to search for patterns and select a diagnosis because a constellation of findings matches the respective pattern, regardless of the actual probability of the underlying diagnosis. Confirmation bias: Disproportionately believing facets of a case that confirm or support initial theories. Availability heuristic: Diagnoses or recent outcomes that easily come to mind and as such may be overrepresented in a clinician's reasoning. Anchoring: The tendency to focus on a singular facet of a case, creating the potential to negate other disconfirming aspects of the case. Premature closure: Closure of the diagnostic process in a premature fashion before all relevant information is obtained.

Monaldi Archives for Chest Disease

Every day, we must make decisions that range from simple and risk-free to difficult and risky. Our cognitive sources' limitations, as well as the need for speed, can frequently impair the quality and accuracy of our reasoning processes. Indeed, cognitive shortcuts lead us to solutions that are sufficiently satisfying to allow us to make quick decisions. Unfortunately, heuristics frequently misguide us, and we fall victim to biases and systematic distortions of our perceptions and judgments. Because suboptimal diagnostic reasoning processes can have dramatic consequences, the clinical setting is an ideal setting for developing targeted interventions to reduce the rates and magnitude of biases. There are several approaches to bias mitigation, some of which may be impractical. Furthermore, advances in information technology have given us powerful tools for addressing and preventing errors in health care. Recognizing and accepting the role of biases is only the first and unavoidable...