Impact of the 2 °C target on global woody biomass use

Journal of Forest Economics

In this study, we investigate the effects of climate change mitigation and socioeconomic development on global forest resources use. The analysis is based on the Global Biosphere Management Model (GLOBIOM), which is a recursive dynamic land-use model. Climate change mitigation and socioeconomic development are included in the model as exogenous parameters taken from the SSP-RCP scenarios, which separate between the shared socioeconomic pathways("SSPs") and the representative concentration pathways ("RCPs"). The effect of SSP-RCP scenarios is restricted to factors that are quantitatively documented in the SSP database (economic growth, population growth, bioenergy demand, and carbon prices). Our results indicate that both climate change mitigation and socioeconomic development may increase harvest volumes and harvested area considerably in the future. This happens because there are no opportunity costs of using forest area for harvesting in the model. We show that such opportunity costs can be added in the model by considering carbon storage changes between forest types and carbon payments on them. These payments increases woody biomass prices and make woody biomass harvesting for modern bioenergy less profitable mitigation option relative to carbon sequestration in the standing forests. However, the payments do not have much impact on the profitability of

Environmental Research Letters, 2014

Low-stabilization scenarios consistent with the 2°C target project large-scale deployment of purpose-grown lignocellulosic biomass. In case a GHG price regime integrates emissions from energy conversion and from land-use/land-use change, the strong demand for bioenergy and the pricing of terrestrial emissions are likely to coincide. We explore the global potential of purposegrown lignocellulosic biomass and ask the question how the supply prices of biomass depend on prices for greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from the land-use sector. Using the spatially explicit global land-use optimization model MAgPIE, we construct bioenergy supply curves for ten world regions and a global aggregate in two scenarios, with and without a GHG tax. We find that the implementation of GHG taxes is crucial for the slope of the supply function and the GHG emissions from the land-use sector. Global supply prices start at $5 GJ −1 and increase almost linearly, doubling at 150 EJ (in 2055 and 2095). The GHG tax increases bioenergy prices by $5 GJ −1 in 2055 and by $10 GJ −1 in 2095, since it effectively stops deforestation and thus excludes large amounts of high-productivity land. Prices additionally increase due to costs for N 2 O emissions from fertilizer use. The GHG tax decreases global land-use change emissions by one-third. However, the carbon emissions due to bioenergy production increase by more than 50% from conversion of land that is not under emission control. Average yields required to produce 240 EJ in 2095 are roughly 600 GJ ha −1 yr −1 with and without tax. Environ. Res. Lett. 9 (2014) 074017 D Klein et al Alston J M, Beddow J M and Pardey P G 2009 Agricultural research, productivity, and food prices in the long run Science 325 1209-10 Azar C, Johansson D J A and Mattsson N 2013 Meeting global temperature targets-the role of bioenergy with carbon capture and storage Environ. Res. Lett. 8 034004 Azar C, Lindgren K, Obersteiner M, Riahi K, van Vuuren D P, Elzen K M G J, Möllersten K and Larson E D 2010 The feasibility of low CO 2 concentration targets and the role of bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) Clim. Change 100 195-202 Beringer T, Lucht W and Schaphoff S 2011a Bioenergy production potential of global biomass plantations under environmental and agricultural constraints GCB Bioenergy 3 299-312 Beringer T, Lucht W and Schaphoff S 2011b Bioenergy production potential of global biomass plantations under environmental and agricultural constraints GCB Bioenergy 3 299-312 Bodirsky B L, Popp A, Weindl I, Dietrich J P, Rolinski S, Scheiffele L, Schmitz C and Lotze-Campen H 2012 N 2 O emissions from the global agricultural nitrogen cycle-current state and future scenarios Biogeosciences 9 4169-97 Bondeau A et al 2007 Modelling the role of agriculture for the 20th century global terrestrial carbon balance Glob. Change Biol. 13 679-706 Calvin K, Edmonds J, Bond-Lamberty B, Clarke L, Kim S H, Kyle P, Smith S J, Thomson A and Wise M 2009 2.6: Limiting climate change to 450 ppm CO 2 equivalent in the 21st century Energy Econ. 31 S107-20 Calvin K, Wise M, Kyle P, Patel P, Clarke L and Edmonds J 2013 Trade-offs of different land and bioenergy policies on the path to achieving climate targets Clim. Change 123 691-704 Campbell J E, Lobell D B, Genova R C and Field C B 2008 The global potential of bioenergy on abandoned agriculture lands Environ. Sci. Technol. 42 5791-4 Dietrich J P, Schmitz C, Lotze-Campen H, Popp A and Müller C 2014 Forecasting technological change in agriculture-an endogenous implementation in a global land use model Technol. Forecast. Soc. Change 81 236-49 Dietrich J P, Schmitz C, Müller C, Fader M, Lotze-Campen H and Popp A 2012 Measuring agricultural land-use intensity-a global analysis using a model-assisted approach Ecol. Model. 232 109-18 Dornburg V et al 2010 Bioenergy revisited: key factors in global potentials of bioenergy Energy Environ. Sci. 3 258 Ebeling J and Yasué M 2008 Generating carbon finance through avoided deforestation and its potential to create climatic, conservation and human development benefits Philos. Trans. R. Soc. B Biol. Sci. 363 1917-24

Research Square (Research Square), 2023

Global wood demand is projected to rise but supply capacity is questioned due to limited global forest resources. Furthermore, the lifecycle global warming potential (GWP) impact of additional wood supply and use is poorly understood. For the case of a temperate country, combining forest carbon modelling and life-cycle assessment we show that sustained afforestation to double forest area alongside enhanced productivity can meet lower-bound wood demand projections from 2058. Thus, temperate forestry value-chains can achieve a cumulative GWP bene t of up to 265 Tg CO 2-equivalent (CO 2 e) by 2100 for each 100,000 ha (expanding to 200,000 ha through afforestation) of forest. Net GWP balance depends on which overseas forests supply domestic shortfalls, how wood is used, and rate of industrial decarbonisation. There is considerable but constrained potential for increased wood-use to deliver future climate-change mitigation, providing it is connected with a long-term planting strategy, enhanced tree productivity and e cient wood use.

Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, 2012

A method is presented for estimating the global warming impact of forest biomass life cycles with respect to their functionally equivalent alternatives based on fossil fuels and non-renewable material sources. In the method, absolute global warming potentials (AGWP) of both the temporary carbon (C) debt of forest biomass stock and the C credit of the biomass use cycle displacing the fossil and non-renewable alternative are estimated as a function of the time frame of climate change mitigation. Dimensionless global warming potential (GWP) factors, GWP bio and GWP biouse , are derived. As numerical examples, 1) bioenergy from boreal forest harvest residues to displace fossil fuels and 2) the use of wood for material substitution are considered. The GWP-based indicator leads to longer payback times, i.e. the time frame needed for the biomass option to be superior to its fossil-based alternative, than when just the cumulative balance of biogenic and fossil C stocks is considered. The warming payback time increases substantially with the residue diameter and low displacement factor (DF) of fossil C emissions. For the 35-cm stumps, the payback time appears to be more than 100 years in the climate conditions of Southern Finland when DF is lower than 0.5 in instant use and lower than 0.6 in continuous stump use. Wood use for construction appears to be more beneficial because, in addition to displaced emissions due to by-product bioenergy and material substitution, a significant part of round wood is sequestered into wood products for a long period, and even a zero payback time would be attainable with reasonable DFs.

… Strategies for Global …, 2006

In this paper we provide an analytical framework to estimate the joint production of biomass and carbon sequestration from afforestation and reforestation activities. The analysis is based on geographical explicit information on a half-degree resolution. For each grid-cell the model estimates forest growth using a global vegetation model and chooses forest management rules. Land prices, cost of forest production and harvesting are determined as a function of grid specific site productivity, population density and estimates of economic wealth. The sensitivity of the results due to scenario storylines is assessed using different population and economic growth assumptions, which are consistent with B1 and A2 of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Emission Scenarios (IPCC-SRES) marker scenarios. Considerable differences in the economic supply schedules are found. However, technical potentials seem to converge given constancy in other underlying assumptions of the model.

Land Use Policy, 2010

In this study we assessed the potential of woody biomass (short-rotation Mallee Eucalypts) for renewable energy generation as an economically viable way of motivating widespread natural resource management under climate change in the 11.9 million ha Lower Murray agricultural region in southern Australia. The spatial distribution of productivity of agricultural crops and pasture, and biomass was modelled. Average annual economic returns were calculated under historical mean (baseline) climate and three climate change scenarios. Economically viable areas of biomass production were identified where the profitability of biomass is greater than the profitability of agriculture under each scenario for three factory gate biomass prices. The benefits of biomass production for dryland salinisation, wind erosion, and carbon emissions reduction through biomass-based renewable energy production were also modelled. Depending on climate scenario, at the median price assessed ($40/tonne) biomass production can generate $51.4-$88 M in annual net economic returns, address 41,226-165,577 ha at high risk of dryland salinisation and 228,000-1.4 million ha at high risk of wind erosion, and mitigate 10.4-12 million tonnes of carbon (CO 2 −e ) emissions annually. Economically viable areas for biomass production expanded under climatic warming and drying especially in more marginal agricultural land. Under the baseline, the area at high risk of dryland salinisation was more than double that at high risk of wind erosion. However, under climatic warming and drying the relative importance of these two natural resource management objectives switched with the area at high risk of wind erosion becoming much larger. As biomass production can achieve multiple natural resource management objectives, it may provide a land use policy option that is adaptable to changing priorities and economically resilient given climatic uncertainties. For such a significant and enduring land use change policy it is prudent to assess both the economic and environmental potential under climate change.

Carbon Balance and Management, 2013

Background: Forests play an important role in the global carbon flow. They can store carbon and can also provide wood which can substitute other materials. In EU27 the standing biomass is steadily increasing. Increments and harvests seem to have reached a plateau between 2005 and 2010. One reason for reaching this plateau will be the circumstance that the forests are getting older. High ages have the advantage that they typical show high carbon concentration and the disadvantage that the increment rates are decreasing. It should be investigated how biomass stock, harvests and increments will develop under different climate scenarios and two management scenarios where one is forcing to store high biomass amounts in forests and the other tries to have high increment rates and much harvested wood.

We studied net climate impacts and economic profitability of the production and utilization of biomass from a Norway spruce (Picea abies L. Karst) stand under alternative forest management in Finnish boreal conditions over 60e100-year rotations. The work employed ecosystem model simulations and a life cycle assessment tool as integrated. The net climate impact of biomass referred to the difference in annual net CO 2 exchange between the biosystem and fossil system. Sawn wood, pulp, energy biomass and processing waste substituted for concrete/steel, plastic and coal/oil. In the biosystem, 'business as usual' (baseline) and alternative management (maintaining 10e30% higher or lower stocking than the baseline, and/or nitrogen fertilization, and harvesting intensity) were used. The fossil system considered baseline and unthinning as reference management and also net ecosystem CO 2 exchange as excluded. We found that using timber and energy biomass generated 32e40% higher net climate impacts compared to using only timber. Generally, harvesting of energy biomass increased the economic profitability but the net climate impacts of biomass were highest over 80e100-year rotations. Maintaining higher stocking in thinning and fertilization generally enhanced net climate impacts, but maintaining up to 20% higher stocking and both energy biomass and timber production increased both net climate impacts and economic profitability. The baseline as a reference produced higher climate benefits compared to unthinning regime. The increased production and use of sawn wood with energy biomass appeared the best option for long-term mitigation, since they enhanced both net climate impacts compared to the fossil system and economic returns.

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